Sunday August 16 2026 Forecast (8:01AM)

82 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 16-20)

High pressure sits overhead early today then shifts offshore as low pressure moves into the Great Lakes. This starts a transition from sunshine and low humidity to increasing clouds and higher humidity, but neither one of those will be in a hurry to take over, so we still end up with a really nice day to finish off the weekend! The initial system moving into the Great Lakes redevelops just to our south on Monday and travels northeastward to a position offshore to our east by Monday night, wandering away Tuesday as another small area of high pressure builds our way behind it. This scenario brings us abundant cloudiness and scattered showers overnight tonight through Monday evening, but also much rain-free time. Tuesday’s weather features varying amounts of clouds and still the chance of a pop-up shower, but much of that day is dry. High pressure slides offshore Wednesday, and with the next approaching frontal system still well to our northwest, we’ll have a very nice summer day. The front to the northwest then does make its way into our region Thursday at which time we will see a return of shower and thunderstorm chances.

TODAY: Sunshine, then increasing clouds later in the day. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Dew point rises to 60+ by later in the day. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes by midday, then S 5-15 MPH by late-day.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and patchy fog overnight. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Patchy fog early. Highs 68-75. Dew point in 60s. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH, shifting to N late-day.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouds linger. Patches of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Intervals of clouds and sun. A pop-up shower possible, mainly near I-95 in the afternoon. Highs 75-82. Dew point sub-60. Wind N shifts to E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog. Lows 53-60. Dew point under 55. Wind calm.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80 South Coast / Cape Cod, 80-87 elsewhere. Dew point climbs to around 60. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Clouds overnight. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Probable showers. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 75-82. Dew point in 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 21-25)

Fair weather early to mid period which, based on current expectations, includes the August 22-23 weekend. Unsettled weather chances return late in the period. Lower humidity late next week, higher humidity follows. No major heat indicated.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 26-30)

A stretch of mainly fair weather and seasonable temperatures expected toward month’s end.

82 thoughts on “Sunday August 16 2026 Forecast (8:01AM)”

  1. Good Sunday morning. 56/55. Low of 51. Last two nights have been lovely for sleeping. Of course would have been better if I’d actually slept rather than enjoying the nip in the air.

  2. The second area of concern in the Atlantic, as expected, is a done deal.

    No tropical development expected in the Atlantic over the next 7 days.

    Also, beware of some media posts sensationalizing Hurricane Lala (I’ve seen 3 already) because the storm’s close pass to the Big Island, producing some rain/snow mixed at the top of 13,803 foot Mauna Kea. There was also a wind gusts well over 100 MPH there. Unusual? No. Snow/rain mix even at this point in the year is not that unusual at nearly 14,000 feet. And a wind gust of that magnitude at that height is also not. It’s somewhat rare, i.e., it doesn’t happen often, that a hurricane makes a close pass to this location to give those things the chance to happen.

    Some posts are sensationalizing this, even including the fact that wind chills were down to 19. Yeah, a calculation of wind and temp would give you a min wind chill of 19 there this morning. How many people did that impact? Oh yeah, pretty much ZERO. 🙂

    Again folks, just keeping it real. This is one of the reasons this blog was created. It helps me do this. 🙂

    1. Even on ch 10 last night they were making a pretty big deal out of it. I even thought I heard them say direct hit, however the Sydney Welch did say it would be passing just off shore.

      1. Passing offshore is not “direct hit”, which is defined by whether or not the center crosses land.

        Just facts.

        If I see something that is glaringly incorrect, I’ll call it out. I would expect people to do this to me as well. So I’ll take this opportunity to zap myself: Yesterday, I posted “Highs 72-89” for Monday. That was supposed to be “72-79” on the post. Which is now too warm, in my opinion, so I not only corrected that for the sake of having it as intended, but I tweaked the forecast down for today’s update. 🙂

    1. Figures.
      Good 5 then. I am working on it. After 2 guesses, I have the 1st 2 letters in position, but all the words I try to make need letters already used and not in the word! I smell a fail or at the very least will have to waste a guess or 2 to obtain some more letters. Ugh. I hate it when wirdle does this.

      1. Good luck, I have faith in you.

        Well, they’ve got to be running out of 5 letter words for as long as the game has been running,

      2. I got Wordle in 5, also. Only because I was running out of letters. That’s the last time I complain about NYT using common words.

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    73, up from 59

    Ocean; 71

    Wordle; still working on it. Ugh so far….

    2. :wordle spoiler alert

      After 3 guesses and brute force letter substitution I got it in 4. Brutal word!! Unfair. I never heard of it and when I looked it up,I almost barred.

      Here is my wordle for today:

      https://ibb.co/GQyLZqjt

  9. Hawaii practically dines on winds year round. There are always trade winds which come from a northeasterly direction. As a sidebar note, there are something like 200 names for different winds which are specific to islands and parts of islands. I once heard a broadcast suggesting there are 300 names. Most of the time trade winds are blowing probably at 10-20 or 15-30 MPH. 100 MPH gusts while not necessarily welcomed are also not unheard of.

    Rain and flooding might be the bigger story. Ongoing volcanos combined with ongoing periodic rains is not a great recipe for residents.

  10. Thanks TK.

    Sitting in Charlotte right now on a layover on our way to St Lucia. The folks working out on the tarmac look miserable in the heat. Highs here today projected to be in the upper 90s with heat indices in the 100s.

    Weather in the eastern Caribbean looks decent this week. Those two tropical waves were sheared to oblivion as TK mentioned above. Thank you El Niño!

        1. My SC friends have said the weather is brutally hot there also. I’d hate to be on the tarmac. Just awful

  11. Congratulations to anyone who managed to solve Wordle today.

    My wordle was total luck. Although it looks as if I am Not alone. I was lost After two guesses, so just started entering letters. Words 3 and 4 took although I was not familiar with either.

    Wordle 4

  12. I got Wordle in 5 today. I was really at a loss for any possible word. I went so far as to use a letter that I had already eliminated just to try to make some progress.

    Here’s a screen capture of the steam-powered train going up Mt. Washington this morning. I think the sky conditions are very interesting:
    https://ibb.co/8kWS2gT

  14. Red Sox won last night 4-0

    Sonny Gray sure looked good. He is now 15-3 with a 2.65 ERA.
    Nice acquisition!

    1. Very helpful win with Gray pitching last night.

      It was 1-0 for a long time and they had so many opportunities to build on it and couldn’t. I thought for sure they were going to lose 2-1 in the 9th, but they got 3 runs themselves in the 9th. Very happy.

      Sandoval today, so I hope the Red Sox bats can put some runs on the board.

  15. Today’s trivia in 43 seconds but only 7/9 And I guessed at at least one other and managed to get that one

    1. I sometimes look at this list to pick a 1st guess, ultimately I am trying to get it in one guess. I may sacrifice a better 1st guess word for letters with the possible reward of getting it in 1.

      I sometimes use standard starting words. Depends upon what I feel like doing when I play

    2. 🙂

      A starter word from that unused list, tomorrow, lol 🙂

      I won’t do that though. I literally wake up and whatever is on my mind is the starter word.

      1. I do that as well OR I try to think of a word while falling to sleep at night. Sometimes it is a whim when I start playing.
        The other day I used a word from that list and got 4 of the 5 letters with it and solved it in 2. You just never know!

        Fun trying to outfox wordle. Most of the time wordle wins!

        1. If you can think of a word before you fall asleep. I still remember in the morning, I think you won.

      1. Makes me very sad. The last 10 years or so it was my most favorite Spring time fishing spot. Useless in the Summer, but totally AWESOME in the Spring. It will NEVER be the same. NEVER. I’ll take a look next Spring, not because I think the fishing will be great, but simply out of curiosity.

  18. The Boston Red Sox will play the Kansas City Royals on Thursday Aug. 12, 2027 in Dyersville Iowa at the site made famous by Universal Pictures’ “Field of Dreams”.

    Kansas City will be the “home team”.

  21. https://radar.weather.gov/?settings=v1_eyJhZ2VuZGEiOnsiaWQiOiJsb2NhbCIsImNlbnRlciI6Wy0xNTcuMTgsMjEuMTMzXSwiem9vbSI6NywiZmlsdGVyIjoiV1NSLTg4RCIsImxheWVyIjoiY3JlZiIsInN0YXRpb24iOiJQSE1PIiwidHJhbnNwYXJlbnQiOnRydWUsImFsZXJ0c092ZXJsYXkiOnRydWUsInN0YXRpb25JY29uc092ZXJsYXkiOnRydWV9LCJiYXNlIjoic3RhbmRhcmQiLCJjb3VudHkiOmZhbHNlLCJjd2EiOmZhbHNlLCJzdGF0ZSI6ZmFsc2UsIm1lbnUiOnRydWUsInNob3J0RnVzZWRPbmx5Ijp0cnVlfQ%3D%3D#/

    From the Big Island and Lala’s northeast circulation center was oh so close to the southern most coast, its tracked somewhere btwn WNW and NW, such that, its impressive rain shield has worked its way through the island chain.

    Notable SE quadrant nasty rain band.

  25. My Son is on his way to Phoenix, AZ where it is currently 105 and scheduled to be about 108 or 109. Meanwhile 2 hours North in Flagstaff at 7,000 feet elevation it is only 75. What a difference!!!

  26. Red Sox losing 7-3, top 7th in a RAIN DELAY.

    I heard on the radio that the game MAY restart at around 6:05 pm. Some of the tarp is coming off the field.

    1. Red Sox lose 8-3. Why is it lately every time a Sox pitcher pitches a gem along with timely hitting, the following game ends up being a STINKER?

      They are very fortunate that the AL East (and MLB in general) are not particularly good this year so they have lost very minimal ground in the WC race.

      1. That doesn’t happen every time. Sounds like you’ve lost faith in the team just shortly after they tied their record for their longest winning streak. They’re going to be lose some games.

        1. And at the risk of repeating myself, although I know I do that often… it’s always important to support our team, of course but one the most important times to support a team is when it’s losing

  28. Interesting how cold the signal is on the CFS & ECMWF seasonal forecasts are looking way into winter. Just interesting. That’s all. Not reading into it yet.

    1. On X you got many saying winter 26-27 cancelled due to strong El Nino. WAY WAY to early to make that statement.

      1. The winter has indeed been cancelled, but that’s not the actual reason. As I mentioned a few days ago, I bought a new snowblower. That’ll do it! 🙂

      1. I have low expectations for this winter so if there is one big Nor’easter I will be happy.

  29. Drake Passage Waves

    Waves in the Drake at certain points this weekend went below 5 feet and maybe 4 feet. An event that might happen 5% of the time. They did not go below 2 feet as I thought … an event that happens most likely 0% of the time.

    Wave heights are usually determined by wind speed, wind duration, and the fetch. These are not the sole determinants but all three go a long way in explaining wave heights.

    1. Extra impressive because it’s winter down there, which I would think increases low pressure development btwn Frigid Antarctica and the milder oceans surrounding it. Yet, clearly, they got a bout of relatively “calm” weather.

  30. TK – I have in NO way lost faith in the Red Sox. I am only pointing out a few trends as of late is all. I stated that they haven’t lost much ground in the WC race as they are still 5 games up.

    1. Early on, I suspected with have an approximately .500 team on our hands. A team that isn’t going to wipe everyone out, but a team that would win some games. They’ve certainly been more streaky than I thought they’d be, but one can’t predict that. They entertain. And will continue to do so.

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