DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 17-21)
Into the back half of August we go, and this week will start off on the wet, humid, and cool side today as dual low pressure passes by – one older center to our north, one newly developing center to our south. Showery weather will be most prominent this morning with less activity for the afternoon and evening, though cloud cover will remain dominant and keep temperature rise minimal as humidity stays high. Drying starts later tonight into Tuesday as the newer low moves offshore to our east and promotes a light northerly air flow, but some cold air aloft with the help of solar heating can help a few showers pop up Tuesday, primarily around the I-95 belt. A sliver of high pressure moves in Tuesday night and Wednesday giving us dry weather with a notable warm-up for Wednesday, along with a slight increase in humidity. A cold front will amble across the region on Thursday, bringing our region a shower and thunderstorm chance along with humid conditions, but it won’t be any warmer than Wednesday, maybe a tad cooler. Friday’s weather looks fair but the front that goes by Thursday may be slow to exit the South Coast so we’ll have to keep an eye on that. Right now I think high pressure will have enough push to keep it dry.
TODAY: Cloudy. Occasional showers and areas of fog morning. Chance of a shower this afternoon. Highs 68-75. Dew point 65+. Wind S shifts to E up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A shower possible evening. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind E shifts to N up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Sun / cloud mix. A pop-up shower possible I-95 belt midday on. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Dew point lowers to upper 50s. Wind N shifts to E up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point upper 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87 except 73-80 Cape Cod. Dew point increases to lower 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Probable showers. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 77-84. Dew point in 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 61-68. Dew point falls just under 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 75-82. Dew point sub-60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 22-26)
The front previously talked about may be sitting just south of our region on the August 22-23 weekend. While my forecast was optimistic previously, it’s still partially so, but not as much, as we’ll have to watch a couple disturbances moving along the front that could deliver some showers to part of our region, particularly the South Coast / Cape Cod, during the weekend and even into early next week as well before we trend to fair weather as high pressure builds in later in the period. No major heat is expected.
DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 27-31)
A stretch of mainly fair weather and seasonable temperatures anticipated for the final days of August.
https://stormhq.blog/2026/08/17/weekly-outlook-august-17-23-2026/
Good morning and thank you TK
67 and that is the low
Ocean; 69
Wordle: FAIL
Sorry JpDave.
Threw you a line.
Seen sorry. Tons of choices.
That was the problem. Pick the wrong ones and you’re toast. 🙂
Oh well, hopefully there will be a tomorrow. 🙂
Got it, thanks Tom.
Thanks, TK.
Extended heatwaves with temperatures soaring to well above average along with a very serious drought across much of Europe have brought misery in many ways. The worst impacts are the wildfires and a very poor harvest.
One of Europe’s agricultural hubs, Hungary, has experienced a crippling drought.
In Budapest, a rock has resurfaced in the Danube (river). It’s called the Rock of Starvation. For centuries, its return has meant one thing: the river is so low the mills fall silent, crops fail, and hunger follows.
The rock surfaced in 1616. 1718, 1811, 1830, 1842, 1868, and 1947. And now in 2026.
A Hungarian farmer said: “I’ve lost nearly 50% of my harvest, and it could hit 70%. Since I started farming after the end of communist rule, I’ve never seen a catastrophe like this.”
While hunger isn’t imminent like it was in the past, as imports will serve as a replacement, the prices of agricultural products will soar.
Rock of Starvation, wise name for a not good thing.
Quite the summer in parts of Europe.
Thanks TK !
Wordle: 5
Great Tom. I thought I had it for sure, but Wordle just wasn’t happy with my choices. Oh well.
Thank you, TK. 65/64. Low of 65. Everything feels wet. And not from the 0.09” we have so far.
Thank you TK!
Wordle: 2
Holy Crap BatMan!!!! OUTSTANDING!!!!!!!
My regular starter word gave me 4 of the letters and two in the right spots. Pure luck after that lol
Oh my goodness. I’ll second that holy crap Batman. Awesome Sue
Wohoo!!
Awesome, Sue !!!!!!!
Nice job! 4 here
Wordle a Lucky 4.
My first two starter words gave me four letter with one in the correct place. I got lucky and guessed the second to last letter in two more. It seems that was the tough letter to get today. I saw one fail with four misses on that letter
Excellent.
I tried a word today on a whim, something I thought of at about 11:30PM last night. I thought it was going to work well for me. NOT!!!! That one backfired. 🙂 🙂 🙂
Darn. You’ll be back tomorrow!!
Excellent, Vicki !!
I got Wordle in 3 today.
Superb, congrats SClarke !!!
Excellent. Great job.
Thanks TK
My son flew into Phoenix last night (safely) to visits friends in
Scottsdale. He won’t listen to his parents as he is heat sensitive and he went anyway.
ScottsDale Weather:
https://ibb.co/8DX0R2q3
With dew points mostly in the 50s, sometimes to low 60s.
Hopefully, he isn’t outside but a for a few minutes here and there!!!
UGH!!! My wife expects a phone call and a trip out there by me. (My wife would die out there!) I sure hope not.
He is there until Thursday. As of landing about 1:30 our time this morning, he was fine and full of energy. We’ll see how the week goes.
Scottsdale is a little higher in altitude than Phoenix and thus it’s temperature usually runs about 1 degree to at most 2 degrees
slightly less hot than Phoenix. Big woof. Still brutal
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KSDL&hours=72
Thanks Tom. Pretty much confirms dew points in the range I posted.
Tragicomic:
https://www.gocomics.com/nonsequitur
I could make a huge political comment here, but that cartoon
covers it pretty well! Thank you for posting.
Yes, that cartoon says it all. 😉
Thanks, TK!
Thanks TK.
That second tropical wave in the Atlantic that is at no risk of developing is moving through St Lucia today. The morning started out OK with some sun but now waves of rain are moving through and it’s cloudy and very windy. Appears this will be continuing all day. It really looks like a tropical storm out there. I can’t imagine what it would be like to be here even for a minimal hurricane.
Too cold to be in the pool or lazy river so heading to the hot tub! Fortunately the rest of the week looks much better.
BTW, “Accu”weather’s forecast for here today (still not updated) is “a thunderstorm in spots this am and times of sun and clouds this pm”. Right on as always!
I envy you. Make the best of today and let her rip the rest of the week!!!!
Thanks Dave. The afternoon has actually turned out OK. Still mostly cloudy but the rain tapered off earlier and I actually see blue skies off to the NW now over the center of the island. Comfortable temperature too. I need to slow down in the mojitos though 🙂
In posting my note on the drought in Europe and the Rock of Starvation that’s been exposed in the Danube in Budapest, I also wanted to convey the critical importance of meteorology. We’re fairly lucky in SNE as tend not to get many life-threatening weather or other events (eg, earthquakes) . But many other places in the world are not so lucky. Acute (eg, hurricane, tornado) events but also long-term potential catastrophes (eg, drought) impact many each year and the implications for humans can be devastating. Hence the vital importance of informing/warning the public.
A group of New Jersey teenagers had to be rescued from climbing the Franconia Notch Loop. It’s a climb that is rated difficult and I personally had a climbing accident there.
These climbers were novices and unprepared for hiking and the weather. They didn’t have enough food/water and the wrong clothing for the temperatures and winds along the top of the ridge. One of them suffered some sort of injury. It was announced that they are okay but will have to pay for the cost of the rescue.
I believe paying for rescues should be on a case-by-case basis. In this particular case…ABSOLUTELY!
Heart surgery date is Tuesday January 26 2027!
I’ll comment again soon with a couple updated weather thoughts…
Best of luck. Hopefully no weather delays. Maybe January thaw.
Best wishes, TK!
Best wishes!
Many prayers rising with just as many hugs and love
Thanks TK! Planning to take the kids to their first soccer game at Gillette on Sunday. Game is 4:30pm start. What am I looking at for rain? I still have time to back out.
See below (in a few minutes, about to comment on it).
77/66
Weather thoughts for afternoon (early evening)…
Today went about as expected.
The rest of the forecast looks decent to me.
The “dilemma” if you will is the weekend forecast. As you may have read on both my update and the one I shared from SAK this morning we are concerned about the front stalling just to the south after it goes by on Thursday, and potentially setting us up for some unsettled weather in the Friday through Monday time frame. Now to clarify, don’t read into that as “TK and SAK think it’s going to rain for 4 days starting Friday”. Not at all.
I’ve been a bit more optimistic in my outlook and I still am, somewhat. I have seen guidance go two ways for Friday. At least one model slides a wave up the front for wet weather here on Friday. Others do not do that, but have had some kind of shower threat near the South Coast Saturday, and at least near the South Coast Sunday, with some pushing that rain further north. There are a couple scenarios across the guidance that ranges from wet weather to clearing on Monday. Obviously, this is a week away, and no “high confidence” forecast can be made about that right now.
If you want my leaning, after looking at today’s 12z guidance. I’m optimistic for a mainly dry Friday and Saturday, except South Coast shower chance Saturday. I’m still somewhat optimistic that Sunday is a mostly fair day but again watch areas to the south. Slower evolution brings a better rain chance to us one week from today – again reminder of the lower confidence.
I would not cancel any weekend plans at this point.
Hopefully better model agreement as we get a bit closer.
Well the Beachgoers are due for a loss. We have 11 straight weekend wins so if it ends up raining I have a
Lots of work and house cleaning to catch up on!
Thanks for the deets TK! The game is the only non-night game left of the season so will take a chance. Kids can wear ponchos
Not hot, maybe not even warm, but I put the AC back on a few hrs earlier and glad I did.
I did the same. To dry the air in the house
Exactly. Only lowered the temp a bit, but it felt so damp and some parts of the wooden floor parts felt damp almost.
Same here.
New post…