DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 3-7)

A typical early spring pattern is what we are experiencing at this time. Today’s weather will be a result of low pressure moving eastward out of the southern Great Lakes and into New York and Pennsylvania, which will then redevelop south of Long Island later today then move northeast passing southeast of New England tonight. As clouds thicken up today an area of rain will start to move in from the west, but as it does so, the new system taking shape to the south will become dominant and the area of rain will start to dry up just as colder air works in and starts to make it more possible to mix with and change to snow. For the WHW forecast area, this means that rain is most likely in interior southern NH, central MA, and eastern CT into RI, and less likely to the east, and the northern half of the “most likely” region for rain is also most likely to see a mix with or change to snow sometime tonight, with minor accumulation on unpaved surfaces, before it ends. By then, the better chance of rain will have shifted to Cape Cod and the Islands briefly before the new low center scoots to the northeast. Monday, between that departing system and a small area of high pressure approaching, the weather will be dry but we may see quite a few fair weather clouds popping up along with a gusty northwesterly breeze. As high pressure moves over the region later Monday night into Tuesday, we’ll see the wind settle down and end up with a nice day with lighter wind and a little bit of a warm-up for Tuesday, although high clouds will already be arriving and increasing in advance of our next threat of unsettled weather. Midweek looks wet and cool as 2 low pressure systems impact our region, the first moving out just south of the area on Wednesday but close enough for a steady rainfall, which may even end up as mix/snow over interior higher elevations before ending. The second low pressure system will be a larger system, size-wise, and be tracking a little further north than its predecessor, and this will send an occluding frontal system into our region with more rainfall during Thursday.

TODAY: Clouds thicken. Rain chance highest mid-late afternoon eastern CT, central MA, southwestern to south central NH, with lesser chance to the east. Highs 47-54. Wind variable under 10 MPH then E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy evening with a chance of rain and snow showers southern NH and north central MA, also rain likely eastern MA, heaviest Cape Cod & Islands. Breaking clouds overnight. Lows 33-40. Wind NE shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusty.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 52-59, coolest South Coast. Wind variable under 10 MPH becoming S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 38-45. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Rain arriving morning and continuing afternoon. Temperatures steady 38-45. Wind E 5-15 MPH interior, 10-20 MPH coast, higher gusts possible.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain tapering off but may end as snow in some interior higher elevations especially southwestern NH / north central MA. Lows 33-40. Wind NE 5-15 MPH early, then variable.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain and areas of drizzle/fog. Highs 40-47. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 8-12)

Surface low pressure passing north of the region sends a frontal boundary through the region April 8 with still the threat of some rain showers but milder air. Drier air arrives for the April 9-10 weekend but upper level low pressure crossing the region means daily diurnal clouds and at least a small chance of a few rain showers, temperatures near to slightly below normal. Peeking ahead a bit more – fair April 11, unsettled April 12, but low confidence.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 13-17)

There have been a few pattern hints that we may see a shot of warmer air somewhere in here, but this is always risky to try forecasting too far in advance with any confidence at this time of year with the cold ocean nearby and still plenty of chilly air in Canada. But the overall trend does look at least less unsettled for mid April with plenty of time to sort details.

C-19 Chat Post – 4-3-2022

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 2-6)

Our weekend will be a split although neither day will fit very many people’s definitions of “wonderful” or “perfect”. While we have a dry Saturday with a fair amount of sun, the price will be a chilly and gusty wind much of the day. This takes place as high pressure approaches from the west and low pressure departs via eastern Canada – a set-up we see a lot at this time of year and have seen quite often recently. Sunday’s weather will be more tranquil, but if we see any sun it will be a bonus as a weak area of low pressure sends clouds and eventually some rainfall into the region. We may even see that rain mix with or change to snow over some interior higher elevations Sunday night before it ends as colder air works in. This system will move right along so that we are back into dry weather Monday, but there may be a lot of fair weather clouds that day due to some cold air aloft. A weak area of high pressure brings dry weather for most of Tuesday, but we’ll already be seeing an increase in high clouds ahead of our next round of unsettled weather, which will be low pressure approaching from the Ohio Valley, set to bring us more wet weather (and maybe some higher elevation snow?) by Wednesday.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 48-55. wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts around 30 MPH especially through midday, diminishing gradually later in the day.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Any early sun gives way to clouds. Rain arriving west to east afternoon. Highs 48-55 by midday, then slowly falling during the afternoon. Wind variable to E 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy evening with rain likely, may mix with or turn to snow interior higher elevations before ending. Breaking clouds overnight. Lows 33-40. Wind variable to N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusty.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arriving by late. Lows 38-45. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Rain likely, may mix with or turn to snow interior higher elevations evening. Temperatures steady 38-45, may fall later. Wind E-NE 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 7-11)

Additional unsettled weather due to impact by a couple more low pressure systems April 7-8. A period of fair weather but near to below normal temperatures follows this as Canadian cold winds the often-mentioned battle.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 12-16)

Overall pattern similar, typical springtime battle zone. Unsettled weather probably a couple times.

C-19 Chat Post – 4-2-2022

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 1-5)

An unsettled but mild start to April today as we have low pressure moving through the region, passing to our north. One cold front is coming by this morning with a variety of weather including lots of clouds, sunny breaks, areas of fog, and areas of rain showers, then we’ll settle into a sun/cloud mix, dominated by clouds, but with an additional rain shower possible this afternoon or early evening as a second cold front approaches and passes. This sets us up for a cool, breezy, dry start to the weekend for Saturday. However, a quickly-moving though weak disturbance will bring clouds and eventually the chance for some mainly light rainfall back during Sunday. High pressure builds in with fair weather returning for the start of the week, but we may see a lot of fair weather cloud development Monday then increasing high clouds ahead of the next approaching low by Tuesday…

TODAY: Lots of clouds, breaks of sun. Areas of fog this morning. Periodic rain showers this morning and an additional rain shower later in the day. Highs 55-62. Wind W increasing to 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusty.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun giving way to clouds. Spotty light rain possible afternoon. Highs 51-58. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain, favoring the South Coast. Lows 40-47. Wind variable to N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 6-10)

Unsettled weather potential is highest in the April 6-8 period based on current timing and expected pattern, which will feature variable temperatures in a battle zone between southeastern US warmth and Canadian cold.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 11-15)

Overall pattern similar, typical springtime battle zone. Unsettled weather seems likely at some point, favoring mid period.

C-19 Chat Post – 4-1-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 31 – APRIL 4)

As we end March and begin April, we’ll be impacted by low pressure moving east northeastward and passing north of our region. First, its warm front is moving through early this morning and has produced some spotty light rain/sleet over portions of southern NH which is now moving out. During today we’ll see warmer air moving into the region from south to north, although the South Coast will experience its ocean-modified cooler temperatures with a southerly breeze. There will be lots of clouds but only a few isolated rain showers, with most of the region rain-free during the day. This evening, however, as a cold front starts to approach from the west, we’ll see an increase in rain shower activity, and during a few hours of later evening to early overnight there may be some downpours around and even some embedded thunderstorms. This makes an early Friday morning exit leaving Friday as a fairly mild and mostly rain-free day with a sun/cloud mix, but a chance of a rain shower during the afternoon as a secondary cold front approaches. It is behind this front that we will see legitimate drying and cooling with an increase in wind for Friday night through Saturday. Sunday’s weather has been a bit of a thorn bush to navigate in figuring it out. Low pressure or high pressure in control? That is the question. Well, it does look like we’ll have a fairly weak and moisture-starved low pressure area moving into the region from the west, but right now I’m leaning toward this being more of a cloud producer than a precipitation event, although there may be some spotty light rainfall around at times, favoring the second half of the day and the nighttime hours. This system will likely redevelop offshore, but with the fairly weak and quick-moving nature of the system, any redevelopment would most likely bring brief steadier rain to the South Coast before exiting and leaving us with a sun/cloud mix between departing low pressure and approaching high pressure on Monday. There will still be some fine-tuning needed for Sunday-Monday…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated rain showers. Highs 56-63, except cooler South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with rain showers likely including a few downpours and possible thunder, mainly late evening to overnight, diminishing toward dawn. Lows 48-55. Wind S 10-20 MPH, gusting frequently 25-35 MPH and occasionally above 35 MPH, shifting to W overnight.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Rain showers possible favoring eastern areas around dawn. Passing rain showers possible in the afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusty.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun giving way to clouds. Spotty light rain possible afternoon. Highs 51-58. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain, favoring the South Coast. Lows 40-47. Wind variable to N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloud/sun mix. Highs 50-57. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 5-9)

Unsettled weather potential is highest in the April 6-8 period based on current timing and expected pattern, which will feature variable temperatures in a battle zone between southeastern US warmth and Canadian cold.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 10-14)

Overall pattern similar, typical springtime battle zone. Unsettled weather seems likely at some point, favoring mid period.

C-19 Chat Post – 3-31-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 30 – APRIL 3)

It’s been cold, and March isn’t going to end that way, but with a temperature up-swing and a return to some unsettled weather. This will be the result of low pressure moving into the Great Lakes tonight and Thursday then into southeastern Canada by Thursday night. An area of high pressure bringing us fair weather and a chilly day today will shift off to the south, and the approaching low’s warm front will then move into our area tonight and through the region on Thursday. It may be preceded by a period of precipitation, which may fall as snow and/or sleet in some areas west and north of Boston, before it moves through and we warm up on Thursday. But by later Thursday, we’ll already be seeing the approach of the low’s cold front, and with plenty of moisture in place, in contrast to our very dry air now, we’ll have numerous showers in the region, even the potential for some downpours which may contain thunder. This sweeps offshore overnight and a good portion of Friday, while breezy, will feature a sun/cloud mix and fairly mild air to start off the month of April. Another rain shower is possible as a secondary cold front moves through during the afternoon or evening. This will lead to a cooler and breezy but fair weather day for Saturday. I’d been optimistic that high pressure would hold off any unsettled weather through the weekend, but a lot of guidance indicates the next system may be here as early as Sunday with more clouds and at least a minor threat of some rain shower activity, so I am leaning this way now…

TODAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH early then variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. A period of snow/sleet/rain possible, frozen most likely north and west of Boston, during the evening. Lows 30-37. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of passing rain showers, becoming more likely by evening. Highs 56-63, except cooler South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy evening with rain showers likely including the potential for downpours and embedded thunder. Breaking clouds overnight but still the chance of passing rain showers. Lows 48-55. Wind S 10-20 MPH, gusting up to 30 MPH, shifting to W overnight.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Rain showers possible favoring eastern areas around dawn. Passing rain showers possible in the afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusty.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun giving way to clouds. Late-day rain shower chance. Highs 51-58. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 4-8)

Unsettled weather potential is highest in the April 5-7 period based on current timing and expected pattern, which will feature variable temperatures in a battle zone between southeastern US warmth and Canadian cold.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 9-13)

Overall pattern similar, typical springtime battle zone. Unsettled weather seems likely at some point, favoring mid or late period.

C-19 Chat Post – 3-30-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 29 – APRIL 2)

We’re still immersed in an early spring cold-snap today, but we’ll be seeing it come to an end soon after one more gusty and chilly day today, albeit with more sun than yesterday, and one cold night tonight. Clouds move in Wednesday ahead of a warm front from a low pressure system heading for the Great Lakes. The low will move through the Northeast Wednesday night through Friday. Precipitation generated by the approaching warm front can be in the form of snow and/or sleet Wednesday night as the atmosphere will still be cold. Eventually, the warm front should push through on Thursday, but the low’s cold front should not be that far behind and will bring rain showers as it moves in from the west later Thursday and Thursday night, into early Friday before it pushes offshore. Friday itself will still be fairly mild ahead of a secondary cold front which will usher in cooler and drier air for the start of the weekend.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing late.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 19-26. Wind N diminishing to under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 37-44. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of snow/sleet/rain. Lows 30-37. Wind NE-E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely, especially late-day. Highs 50-57. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows 43-50. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Chance of rain showers. Highs 55-62. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusty.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 52-59. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 3-7)

Fair weather dominates April 3-5 though a weak disturbance may bring some clouds and brief rain around April 4. Better chance for unsettled weather toward the end of the period (middle of next week).

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 8-12)

Early and late period stand better chances of unsettled weather in a somewhat active pattern. Temperatures near to below normal.

C-19 Chat Post – 3-29-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 28 – APRIL 1)

Upper level low pressure, a piece of “polar vortex” brings us a cold air mass to start out this week. Snow showers are ushering in the coldest air for parts of the region as we start the day today, and there may be a few additional snow flurries during the day as we see a gusty northwesterly wind, lots of clouds, limited sun, and high temperatures that will challenge record low maximum temperatures for the day. Surface high pressure will still be west of us on Tuesday, and with low pressure spinning over eastern Canada we’ll continue in a chilly northwesterly air flow, though it will be up a few to several degrees over today, and with more sunshine at a much higher sun angle in late March it will feel nicer despite the breeze and chill. High pressure moves over us Tuesday night which will be quite cold again as a clear sky and lighter wind allow good radiating. Clouds move in Wednesday ahead of a warm front from a low pressure system heading for the Great Lakes. Much like a system we saw recently, this broad low pressure circulation will move through the Northeast late this week. Precipitation generated by the approaching warm front can be in the form of snow and/or sleet Wednesday night as the atmosphere will still be cold. Eventually, the warm front should push through on Thursday, but the low’s cold front should not be that far behind and will bring rain showers as it moves in from the west later Thursday and Thursday night, into early Friday before it pushes offshore. But the air behind that front is not really going to be that cold initially, so Friday itself will be on the mild side to start April, with a sun / cloud mix and still a lingering rain shower possible.

TODAY: Lots of clouds, few intervals of sun. Snow showers with minor accumulation around early morning, especially southern NH / eastern MA, and a chance of a passing snow flurry at any other time during the day. Highs 29-36, coldest in the higher elevations southwestern NH / central MA. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts around 30 MPH. Wind chill below 20 at times.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 16-23. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill often below 10.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing late.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 19-26. Wind N diminishing to under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 37-44. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of snow/sleet/rain. Lows 30-37. Wind NE-E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely, especially late-day. Highs 50-57. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows 43-50. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Chance of rain showers. Highs 55-62. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 2-6)

High pressure builds in with fair weather but cooler for the April 2-3 weekend. We may have to watch for a disturbance with a period of precipitation on April 4 followed by dry weather April 5 then another precipitation threat at the end of the period, but confidence on that part of the forecast remains low.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 7-11)

Forecast confidence remains low heading toward mid April too, but the large scale pattern should support near to below normal temperatures and additional episodes of unsettled weather, including the possibility of some late season frozen precipitation for at least parts of the region, favoring the early part of the period.

C-19 Chat Post – 3-28-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 27-31)

The last 5 days of March will contain a variety of weather. Let’s sort it out. Upper level low pressure spins over the region while drifting eastward during the next few days. Today, other than some patchy cloudiness near the MA South Coast and back over the hills of north central MA to southwestern NH, the balance of the region has dawned with a clear sky, but this won’t last, as cold air aloft will help trigger diurnal cloud development and those clouds will become dominant by midday onward. Today’s atmosphere is not quite as unstable as yesterday’s, so the chance of convective shower development is lower, but some of them that do form while being mainly rain showers may also contain wet snow and even graupel (rimed snowflakes). We’ll be cooler than yesterday as well, but the real cold air arrives tonight, with a cold front, which may bring a few snow showers, then a blast of blustery weather through Monday, a day that will feature a lot of clouds and maybe a few snow flurries, and also have a wind chill as high temps in the 30s often feel like 20s or even upper 10s at times. Tuesday, we ease the wind and lose a lot of the clouds but keep a chill as a northwesterly air flow continues between high pressure to our west and low pressure over eastern Canada. The high center will finally nudge eastward enough to allow the wind to diminish later Tuesday into Wednesday, but a warm front will be approaching on Wednesday and we’ll see the cloud cover increase from that. With enough lingering cold around, this front may generate frozen precipitation for parts of the region Wednesday night. I’m cautiously optimistic that the front will push through for a milder day Thursday, but this will come with a price which will be rain showers as a cold front approaches from the west – an unsettled end to the month.

TODAY: Mostly sunny start, then variably to mostly cloudy midday on. Isolated showers of rain and possible graupel and/or wet snow afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind WNW increasing to 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a passing snow shower. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts likely.

MONDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Chance of passing snow flurries. Highs 34-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing late.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 22-29. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 37-44. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of snow/sleet/rain. Lows 30-37. Wind NE-E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 50-57. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 1-5)

Upper level low pressure is expected to cross the region from west to east over the first few days of April with a transition from mild to cooler, but the greatest chance of any rainfall on April 1 followed by a drier April 2-3 weekend. We may have to watch for a disturbance with a period of precipitation on April 4 followed by dry weather April 5 but confidence on that part of the forecast is much lower.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 6-10)

Forecast confidence remains low, but the large scale pattern should support near to below normal temperatures and additional episodes of unsettled weather, including the possibility of some late season frozen precipitation for at least parts of the region, favoring April 6-8.