DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 2-6)
You’ve made it to the second day of 2021! And the weather today is just as expected. Last night, precipitation arrived as snow in all areas west and north of Boston, a few flakes in the city, and generally rain to the southeast. The initial burst of snow was enough accumulate a coating to 2 inches, as expected. Here at the WHW location in Woburn Massachusetts I measured 7/10 of an inch (0.7) of snowfall before the band moved away and it ended. When precipitation returned, it was in the form of sleet then went to rain. During the overnight hours it became rain in all areas, but some of that rain was freezing on untreated surfaces north and west of Boston, especially in Worcester County where temperatures held close to or just below freezing longest while other areas warmed to the upper 30s and lower 40s pre-dawn. The hold-out areas will warm toward 40 today and any icing should melt away. The entire region is starting overcast with areas of rain and some fog today as low pressure tracks across southeastern New England, and as that low makes its way east and northeast of the region this afternoon and evening we’ll see the return of dry air and some clearing. As the temperature drops tonight, watch for the formation of black ice on untreated surfaces, into Sunday morning as well. Most of this will vanish due to dry air by later Sunday morning. Sunday will be a nice winter day, but don’t expect total sunshine as clouds will be rapidly moving back into the region in advance of the next low pressure system, which will bring its shield of precipitation into the region late Sunday and into Monday. The question with this system is its organization and battle against some dry air. It will have colder air to work with, so the snow potential extends a little further south and east than the system just before it, but at the same time it will be fighting dry air that may try to eat away at the precipitation. Some of the shorter range guidance has been insisting on an offshore intensification of this system, dragging cold air eastward and creating a snow situation with a bit more potential to it, while other guidance has had this occurring a little too far offshore to have much of an impact. No surprise that the guidance continues to struggle with these details but they should iron things out over the next few runs. In the mean time, I’ll just continue the idea from yesterday, and based on this, this is my early call on snowfall accumulation through Monday evening… No accumulation for outer Cape Cod and Nantucket, a slushy coating for Cape Ann MA, lower Cape Cod, and Martha’s Vineyard, northwestward to about Plymouth and westward along the South Coast, a coating to 1 inch from the South Shore north of Plymouth to southern RI away from the coast as well as northward to the immediate North Shore of the Boston area, 1-3 inches for the I-95 belt and the lower part of the I-495 belt south of I-90, and 3-5 inches for the I-495 belt from I-90 northward. This system will be hanging around underneath upper level low pressure offshore Tuesday and perhaps even into Wednesday (a little longer than previously expected) keeping it on the unsettled side here with the potential for rain and snow showers.
TODAY: Overcast with areas of fog & drizzle along with periods of rain this morning. Breaking clouds from west to east this afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind E 5-15 MPH backing to N then W with higher gusts at times.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 23-30. Watch for black ice formation. Wind W 5-15 MPH, diminishing.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Snow, except mix/rain South Coast, arriving by the end of the day. Highs 35-42. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of snow except mix/rain in coastal areas. Lows 30-37. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Rain (mostly coast) & snow (mostly interior) may get heavier and rain may change to snow in all areas by later in the day. Highs 32-39. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow/mix/rain tapering off to spotty and lighter. Lows 23-30. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Snow and/or rain showers possible. Temperatures generally 32-39. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 7-11)
The delay in departure of the low pressure area into midweek likely delays the arrival of the next system or changes its track somewhat. Need to watch later January 8 through January 10, but this system could easily end up passing south of there region. Will keep a close eye on its evolution.
DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 12-16)
Blocking pattern expected. Next storm threat window later January 12 through January 14.