DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 27-31)

Discussion…

Keeping in mind our often-mentioned terrible performances by guidance, there are not a lot of changes in today’s forecast from what was written yesterday, so to summarize, after a very feeble performance by an approaching warm front yesterday, first not giving much rain, and second never making it through, we get into a northerly air flow today which turns easterly on Wednesday as high pressure passes north of the region. A minor disturbance may bring a touch of wet weather later tonight and early Wednesday. And then comes the much-hyped first snow threat of the season! Oh wait a moment, it’s not really much of a snow threat now is it? It’s a rain threat, which we need, and we may score some beneficial rainfall of up to an inch or so mainly from Thursday afternoon through much of Thursday night and into early Friday as low pressure passes south of the region. Some of the moisture from yet another Gulf of Mexico tropical system will be involved in this, but I do think a fair amount of that moisture will miss to the south. Yes, there will be cold enough air from the north getting involved with this system so we probably do see a change to snow in some areas mostly outside of I-95 (though cannot rule out flakes further southeast for a time) as things get ready to wind down on Friday. As for accumulation? No, not 2011. We may see some minor accumulation, possibly measurable, in higher elevations favoring north central MA and southwestern NH, as far as the WHW forecast area goes. By Friday evening, it’s gone, and it’s cold/dry. This sets up a very chilly but dry Halloween on Saturday, which also features the second full moon of the month (Hunter’s Moon).

Details…

TODAY: Lots of clouds, breaks of sun. Highs 52-59. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers late evening and overnight. Lows 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain showers in the morning. Highs 51-58. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 41-48. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely, especially during the afternoon hours. Highs 46-53. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Periods of rain, may mix with snow southwestern NH and north central MA overnight. Lows 35-42. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Overcast morning with rain except mix/snow likely especially northwest of I-95 with minor accumulation favoring higher elevations of north central MA and southern NH. Partial clearing during the afternoon. Highs 42-49. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 25-32 except 33-40 urban centers. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 43-50. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 1-5)

Cold start then milder finish November 1 as another cold front approaches. Rain showers night of November 1 to early November 2 may end as snow showers as a shot of cold/wind arrives for the balance of November 2. Another quick-moving disturbance may bring a rain/snow shower early November 3 followed by more breezy and cold weather. Quick warm-up November 4 then cool-down November 5 but high pressure dominates with dry weather.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 6-10)

Very divergent medium range guidance (no surprise), so for now going with mainly dry, maybe brief unsettled weather around November 7. A lot of up and down temperatures may occur during this period. Will fine-tune with time.

C-19 Chat Post – October 27 2020

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 26-30)

Discussion…

As low pressure tracks northwest of the region today and tonight, its warm front will try, and fail, to pass through the region. It will produce some wet weather, but not a heavy rainfall, and we’ll never get into the warm sector, having an occluded frontal passage instead, putting us into a northerly air flow Tuesday which then turns more easterly Wednesday as a bubble of high pressure slides north of the region in the wake of the low before it. Another area of low pressure will approach and pass south of the region Thursday, some of this being the moisture remains of Hurricane Zeta from the Gulf of Mexico. A second wave of low pressure will probably become a slightly stronger system as it passes by early Friday. The things to figure out with this have been how heavy the rain will be, and whether or not enough cold air from the north arrives before the precipitation ends to give the region some snow at the end of the system. The answers I believe will be that most of the heavier rain will pass south of the region, but a swath of significant rain is still possible, favoring areas south of I-90 as it stands now, and also that cold air will arrive in time for a mix or brief change to snow for some areas Friday morning but a rather rapid departure of the precipitation will prevent any significant snowfall accumulation from occurring. What is pretty certain is that it will be rather cold on Friday.

Details…

TODAY: Overcast. Periods of light rain and drizzle. Highs 51-58. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a rain shower. Patchy drizzle early. Lows 44-51. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a rain shower early. Highs 52-59. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 51-58. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 41-48. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Highs 46-53. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Periods of rain, may mix with snow southwestern NH and north central MA overnight. Lows 35-42. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Overcast morning with rain except mix/snow possible especially northwest of I-95 before ending. Clearing afternoon. Highs 42-49. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 31 – NOVEMBER 4)

A Canadian high pressure area brings fair but colder than normal weather for Halloween October 31 before sliding offshore with dry but milder weather November 1. A cold front comes through early November 2 with a rain shower risk then windy/colder air following. Fair, tranquil but chilly November 3 before a rain shower risk with another passing cold front November 4, based on current timing and anticipated error of poorly-performing models.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 5-9)

Polar jet stream dominant. Current timing would indicate a warm-up November 5-6 then another cold shot but mainly dry weather.

C-19 Chat Post – October 26 2020

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 25-29)

Discussion…

A reminder: We’re still dealing with guidance that struggles more than would be typical due to deficient data for initialization, and it shows daily. Just yesterday we went from one GFS run showing measurable snow early October 31 in a good portion of southern New England to the next run showing dry/cold weather for the exact same time. It can be a challenge to try to figure out where the model mess-ups are and what they should really be forecasting – a daily struggle, fun at times, frustrating at others. A few adjustments have been made to this forecast but nothing too drastic. As expected, our mild air mass that started the weekend has been replaced by a much cooler one as the air is coming out of eastern Canada via the Maritime Provinces. It’s dry air though, and today will be a chilly late October day, although you will notice the presence of high & mid level cloudiness streaming in from the southwest which will dim and even blot out the sun at times. This is high level moisture in advance of an approaching warm front which, as it approaches the region later tonight and Monday, will cause the clouds to lower and thicken. Such fronts are often known for producing decent overrunning rain, but it appears this one will fail to do that, producing only spotty lighter rainfall at times during Monday. Tuesday, we’ll have a cold front slowly pushing through the region, but the closer we get to this, the more it looks like the front will be starved for moisture, and clouds will be dominant with only limited rain shower activity. High pressure should poke its way into the area for fair weather Wednesday, but the front that goes through on Tuesday will not be far away, and another wave of low pressure is expected to form on the front and may bring another chance of wet weather by Thursday. But there’s plenty of time for this system to fail to materialize as the models currently show. 😉

Details…

TODAY: Sun / cloud mix. Highs 50-57. Wind N up to 10 MPH shifting to E.

TONIGHT: Becoming cloudy. Chance of light rain/drizzle overnight. Lows 43-50. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Overcast. Periods of light rain and drizzle probable. Highs 50-57. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 47-54. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers during the morning. Highs 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 51-58. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 41-48. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Highs 47-54. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 30- NOVEMBER 3)

Model performance renders them basically useless from here onward. Educated guess forecast is that we remain unsettled for a portion of October 30 as the low pressure passes south of the region, but as cold air is moving into the region it will be a race between it and the drier air to see if any of that rain can end as a mix or some snow briefly before we clear out later October 30. Halloween October 31 looks dry and cold. There’s some uncertainty but a disturbance may come by sometime November 1 or 2 with a few rain/snow showers before a reinforcing shot of cold/dry air arrives. Still have to work out the details on that part of the forecast.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 4-8)

This period still looks mainly dry with polar jet stream domination. As high pressure sinks to the south of the region we should see a warm-up initially before a cold front brings a new batch of cold air from Canada eventually. Again, timing such details will be impossible this far out, so just that general idea for now.

C-19 Chat Post – October 25 2020

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 24-28)

Discussion…

After 2 recent significant rain events put a small dent in the ongoing drought, we’ve slipped back to old habits of longer stretches without significant rainfall, and despite some upcoming unsettled weather, the overall pattern will continue to support a sustained or even increased drought. But that doesn’t mean every day will be the same. We do have quite a few changes to talk about, most prominently a strong cold front that will make its way eastward across the region today. This front lacks support for much in the way of rain shower activity but otherwise has a sharpness to it, as it will introduce a new air mass in a rather abrupt way. Once it passes a given location, the temperature will waste no time starting to drop. Many locations that make a run at 70 today will find themselves in the 30s by Sunday morning, and the temperature recovery Sunday will be modest as a north to northeast wind feeds additional chilly air in via eastern Canada. Sunday will be a bright fall day through with plenty of sun and just passing clouds during the morning and into the afternoon, a good day for taking a ride to see the last of peak orange/red foliage color wave. We will already see an increase in high and mid level cloudiness later Sunday ahead of some unsettled weather early next week as a warm front moves through Monday and then a cold front moves very slowly across the region Tuesday, producing some episodes of rainfall, though much of it looks on the light side and not very helpful for our drought. High pressure should nose into the region by Wednesday with drier weather.

Details…

TODAY: Partial sun some areas early, lots of cloudiness otherwise with a passing rain shower possible, then some clearing from the west toward days’s end. Highs 66-73. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W west to east during the day, higher gusts possible.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 35-42. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 52-59. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 43-50. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of light rain likely. Highs 52-59. Wind SE up to 10 MPH becoming S late in the day.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Chance of rain showers. Lows 48-55. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 45-52. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 29- NOVEMBER 2)

Watching for another wave of low pressure from the south with potential unsettled weather October 29 into October 30 before dry and colder weather for the remainder of October 30 and October 31. Another risk of some wet weather around November 1 and a shot of colder air to follow.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 3-7)

Mostly dry weather for this period, temperatures start below normal then moderate to above normal.

C-19 Chat Post – October 24 2020

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 23-27)

Discussion…

High pressure centered to the north of New England will continue to send an easterly air flow into the region today, but a batch of somewhat drier air will help to dissipate the cloudiness from east to west as we move through the day before it returns tonight as the high center slips southeastward and our air flow turns more southerly. Cloudiness will continue to be dominant through much of Saturday in a slightly more humid southerly air flow ahead of an approaching cold front. While this is a fairly sharp front, it does not have alot of support for producing much in the way of rain shower activity. What it will definitely do is introduce a much cooler air mass by the end of the day Saturday, which will then be with us through Sunday as an area of high pressure sends polar air into the region via eastern Canada. This high center, like its predecessor, will slip southeastward by Monday and Tuesday when we will see a return to cloudiness and some unsettled weather, although it appears any rain will be significantly limited. This rather dry 5-day period will allow drought conditions, which recently improved slightly, to worsen once again.

Details…

TODAY: Cloudy with areas of fog and a chance of very light drizzle morning. Clearing east to west midday-afternoon. Highs 58-65, coolest at the coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. A slight chance for a passing rain shower. Highs 66-73. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W with higher gusts from west to east.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 35-42. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 43-50. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain, mainly in the afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind SE up to 10 MPH becoming S late in the day.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Chance of rain showers. Lows 48-55. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 28- NOVEMBER 1)

Currently thinking drier for October 28 as high pressure noses in between disturbances, then another low ripples along the boundary just to the southeast of the area but close enough for a wet weather chance October 29, followed by a push of dry but chilly air for October 30-31, then moderating but watching for a possible low pressure area bringing a rain chance November 1.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 2-6)

The overall pattern looks dry, but a shot of colder air is very possible early in the period followed by a moderating trend again.

C-19 Chat Post – October 23 2020

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 22-26)

Discussion…

The dry and mild October weather continues for a few more days, with lower humidity than we saw the last couple of days as high pressure crests north of the area. This also means that a more easterly air flow will develop and will keep coastal areas a little cooler, though not as cool in comparison if this were a springtime easterly wind. The air flow turns more southwesterly ahead of a cold front Saturday – a front that will be moisture starved but won’t lack the ability to let us know when it comes through, as temperature may tumble as much as 30 to 35 degrees off Saturday’s highs to Sunday morning’s lows, and a lot of that temperature drop will occur over a several hour period Saturday evening. So if you have longer-outdoor plans anywhere on Saturday that go into evening, bring a jacket that you won’t need during the day, but will very likely need as evening sets in. This sets up a much cooler day for Sunday with a north to northeast air flow, which turns more easterly to southerly during the course of Monday as once again high pressure passes to the north of the region then moves southeastward to east of New England. We’ll introduce the chance of rain showers on Monday as well as low pressure tracks north of the region and drags a warm front through the region.

Details…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75, turning cooler along east-facing shores this afternoon. Wind N up to 10 MPH shifting to E.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog interior low elevations. Lows 46-53. Wind N under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind E under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy start, mostly sunny middle of day, mostly cloudy finish. An afternoon shower possible in southern NH and northern MA. Highs 66-73. Wind SE under 10 MPH early, becoming S 5-15 MPH, shifting to W later in the day.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 53-60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 43-50. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain, mainly in the afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind SE up to 10 MPH becoming S late in the day.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 27-31)

A cold front will be in the region from October 27 to early October 29 with a couple opportunities for rain showers along with drier interludes. A stronger low pressure wave should pull the front offshore during October 29 with a shot of much cooler air arriving and lasing into the last couple days of the month. For now expecting dry weather to end the month, but medium range guidance has been anything but consistent so will keep an eye on trends with that as well as the overall pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 1-5)

The early days of November look mostly dry with variable temperatures, a milder start, a cool shot, then moderating, based on current timing.

C-19 Chat Post – October 22 2020

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 21-25)

Discussion…

We have plenty of low level moisture for fog & drizzle around the region to start the day today, but not enough lift ahead of a cold front to produce any meaningful showers. That front will get right into the region and may even get all the way through the area by tonight and Thursday, creating a wind shift and putting the area into a different-feeling air mass, in terms of lower humidity, although it will still be mild. A bubble of high pressure moves north of the area on Friday with a light but easterly air flow for the area making it a touch cooler than Thursday, and then Saturday we’re back in a southerly air flow ahead of a cold front. The timing of this front is a little uncertain, with some guidance in recent runs indicating a little faster approach and passage, but with no significant shower activity, as the area will be under the drying influence of air surrounding Hurricane Epsilon which will be passing well southeast of New England this weekend. What that hurricane will do, as others have, is stir up the seas so we’ll have some larger swells and rough surf impacting the coastline during the weekend. Yesterday I was a little concerned about the front Saturday slowing down and being an avenue for additional moisture and a chance of some rainfall for Sunday, but right now it looks like high pressure will have enough push to give us a dry and cooler Sunday.

Details…

TODAY: Cloudy with areas of fog and drizzle morning. Mostly cloudy but a few breaks of sun possible afternoon. Humid. Highs 63-70. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Humid. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Drier air. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog interior low elevations. Lows 46-53. Wind N under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind E under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy start, mostly sunny middle of day, mostly cloudy finish. An afternoon shower possible in southern NH and northern MA. Highs 66-73. Wind SE under 10 MPH early, becoming S 5-15 MPH, shifting to W later in the day.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with a risk of a passing shower, then clearing. Lows 42-49. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 53-60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 26-30)

More questions to be answered heading into the final days of October. High pressure centered north to east of the region early next week should turn winds from easterly to southerly with lots of cloudiness and some damp weather, although at this point I am not looking for any significant rainfall. Around October 28 a stronger front should move through with rain showers then a turn to chilly weather, at least briefly. Another disturbance may already be in the area by the end of the period, but medium range guidance varies vastly on the details of this system, so for now just going to lean toward a chance of unsettled weather to end this period and re-evaluate with new information.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 31 – NOVEMBER 4)

Trends are for a shot of significantly chilly air to end October followed by a moderating trend but mostly dry weather into the early days of November.

C-19 Chat Post – October 21 2020

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 20-24)

Discussion…

We’re having a mild time! This pattern is stuck in place for several more days, basically for this entire 5-day period with high pressure retrograding southwestward from the Canadian Maritimes to the US Mid Atlantic States and a frontal boundary held at bay to the northwest of our area, only close enough to cause a lot of cloudiness and a window of opportunity for rain showers today through early Wednesday, and possibly again by later Saturday as a stronger low pressure area finally makes its way north of our area.

Details…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered rain showers. A few heavier showers and thunderstorms possible RI and southeastern MA. Highs 65-72. Dew point rising to the lower 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered rain showers. Areas of fog that may become dense with very low visibility in some locations. Lows 53-60. Dewpoint matching temperature in most locations. Wind S under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy start with areas of fog/drizzle & a few rain showers. Partial sunshine midday-afternoon. Highs 63-70. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point middle 50s to lower 60s. Wind near calm.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear but patchy ground fog interior low elevations. Lows 46-53. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind E under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy start, mostly sunny middle of day, mostly cloudy finish. A passing rain shower possible evening or night. Highs 66-73. Wind SE under 10 MPH early, becoming SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 25-29)

I’m a little conflicted about how things play out during this 5-day period. Temperatures will be considerably cooler on October 25 but whether we have clearing or some lingering wet weather remains in question at this point. A frontal boundary may linger near the region with some unsettled weather into early next week before a stronger front from the west arrives later in the period with a push of colder air arriving. Still many details to work out.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 30 – NOVEMBER 3)

A shot of colder air to end October with a few rain & snow showers possible, otherwise mostly dry weather. Fair with a moderating trend following that.