C-19 Chat Post – August 13 2020

7:25AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 12-16)

The main axis for firing showers and thunderstorms associated with an approaching cold front is further southeast than I had expected, and makes today’s main threat for isolated to scattered showers/storms from the I-95 belt southeastward, mainly south of I-90 as the heat and humidity hang on. Thursday is transition day to somewhat drier air, but once again it’s to be an indirect delivery of Canadian air by way of the waters of the warm northwestern Atlantic. Although this air’s origin was a little cooler than recent shots of Canadian air so you will notice it being somewhat cooler this time around for Friday and into the weekend before a little moderation is already felt on Sunday. This will be due to high pressure, which should be strong enough to keep unsettled weather to the south, slips off to the east and the wind already starts to go more southerly by late in the weekend.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms, most likely over southeastern MA and RI during the afternoon. Humid. Highs 86-93, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH but can be variable and gusty near any storms.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog in low lying areas. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Less humid. Highs 78-85, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 58-65. Wind E under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 76-83, coolest coastal areas. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 17-21)

Humidity increases and a low pressure disturbance brings a shower risk August 17. A cold front brings a risk of showers/thunderstorms August 18. Generally fair weather under high pressure August 19-21.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 22-26)

High pressure will be the main controller with mostly dry weather and temperatures running above seasonal averages at least to start this period. More humidity and a higher shower risk may arrive before the end of the period.

C-19 Chat Post – August 12 2020

C-19 Chat Post – August 11 2020

7:16AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 11-15)

I found myself explaining the difference between a hot summer and a really hot summer a lot around the net yesterday, so a quick overview of that again. We’ve had hotter summers than the summer of 2020 – many of them, and many of them with more intense and/or persistent high heat. This summer, while running warmer/hotter than average, doesn’t quite fit into the classic “really hot” summer category, and here is why. Our “high heat” days have been few, and most of our hot days have featured temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the region, with moderate to high humidity, and we’ve had our share of higher humidity spikes as well, though nothing nearly as persistent as the torrid tropical humidity from a couple summer’s ago. There’s a notable difference this summer from some of our other ones that make it seem like there have not been as many breaks, and that is that our weather pattern have been putting high pressure further east in Canada when our cold fronts go through, so instead of getting a direct delivery of refreshing summer polar air from Canada and enjoying a day or 2 of temperatures in the upper 70s to middle 80s with low humidity, we’ve been seeing the air from Canada taking a round-about route via the Canadian Maritimes and over the warmer-than-average Atlantic waters before arriving here on an easterly wind, certainly somewhat refreshing for coastal areas but for the area overall it’s providing a still-humid and not-as-cool feel, which then quickly warms and turns muggy again when the high pressure area sinks to the south. This pattern has been fairly persistent this summer. And when we focus on the next 5 days, it’s really no different. We peak a spell of heat today into Wednesday, break it with a slow-moving cold front Wednesday and Thursday, then “cool it down” with an air flow from the northeast and east at the end of the week. There is no change in my expectation of sensible weather, so since this section is already long enough, just moving on to the detailed forecast after I add this bit of info. If the sky cooperates, the next 3 nights will be the peak of the Perseid Meteor Shower. There will be some interference from the moon, a bit later each night / early morning. This meteor shower peaks between midnight and the first light of dawn, and features thin-looking, trail-leaving, fast-moving meteors that radiate from the constellations Perseus and Cassiopeia high in the northeastern sky. As always, getting away from light pollution is the best way to view them. Good luck!

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Slight chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Humid. Highs 89-96, may turn cooler some coastal areas. Wind SW up to 10 MPH, with coastal sea breezes possible.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Humid. Lows 67-74. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, favoring areas near and northwest of I-95. Humid. Highs 88-95, cooler Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH but can be variable and stronger near any showers and storms.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible early. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 66-73. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible anywhere late morning to early afternoon then favoring areas near to southeast of I-95 remainder of afternoon. Humid. Highs 82-89. Wind variable up to 10 MPH but can be gusty near any shower and storms.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers favoring the MA South Shore and MA / RI South Coast. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy start with a chance of showers near the South Coast, otherwise increasing sunshine. Less humid. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 58-65. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 16-20)

An area of high pressure sinks slowly to the south with the region still in an easterly flow becoming variable August 16 and a variable flow becoming southwesterly August 17 with a slow warm-up and increase in humidity. Wildcard remains whether or not we get some significant shower activity later August 17 or August 18 with a higher humidity air mass and a disturbance, but latest trends look a little less wet to me, and given the drought situation, I’d lean away from significant widespread rainfall in favor of a more scattered shower situation. A little lower confidence at this point but still expecting a warmer westerly flow to arrive later in the period if high pressure to the north is not stronger than expected.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 21-25)

High pressure will be the main controller with mostly dry weather and temperatures running above seasonal averages at least to start this period. More humidity and a higher shower risk may arrive before the end of the period.

7:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 10-14)

People talk about the lazy days of summer. We’ll have a lazy weather pattern this week, making a transition from the heat and humidity that starts the week to cooler and less humid air to end it, with the process taking place over about three day’s time. First, offshore high pressure pumps heat and humidity into the region for the classic summertime feel today and Tuesday, and while the vast majority will not see anything rainfall, there is a risk both days of a few isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms, the slightly higher risk of the 2 days being today. The transition out of this air mass begins Wednesday, but only in the form of a better chance of showers and thunderstorms, favoring areas north and west of Boston, during the afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching cold front while we remain in the hot and humid air mass. This very slow moving front will take all day to cross the region Thursday, the most unsettled day of this period, when additional showers and thunderstorms are possible, with activity tending to favor areas along and southeast of the I-95 belt by later in the day. The front will finally have pushed through by Friday, barely, still sitting near or just off the South Coast and Cape Cod, where additional showers are possible during the morning hours. Otherwise, Friday will see a clearing trend with drier and cooler air arriving.

TODAY: Some fog and low clouds near the South Coast early, otherwise mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Humid. Highs 86-93, may turn cooler some coastal areas. Wind SW up to 10 MPH, with coastal sea breezes possible.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly clear. Patchy fog in low-lying areas. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Slight chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Humid. Highs 89-96, may turn cooler some coastal areas. Wind SW up to 10 MPH, with coastal sea breezes possible.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 67-74. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, favoring areas near and northwest of I-95. Humid. Highs 88-95, cooler Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH but can be variable and stronger near any showers and storms.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible early. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 66-73. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible anywhere late morning to early afternoon then favoring areas near to southeast of I-95 remainder of afternoon. Humid. Highs 82-89. Wind variable up to 10 MPH but can be gusty near any shower and storms.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers favoring the MA South Shore and MA / RI South Coast. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy start with a chance of showers near the South Coast, otherwise increasing sunshine. Less humid. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 15-19)

High pressure centered north to east of the region over the August 15-16 weekend should be strong enough to keep it rain-free although some cloudiness is possible at times, while it’s seasonably mild to warm with low to moderate humidity. A frontal boundary and disturbance brings a shot at more widespread shower activity August 17 before a drier but warmer to hotter westerly air flow arrives later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 20-24)

High pressure will be the main controller with mostly dry weather and temperatures running above seasonal averages heading into late August.

C-19 Chat Post – August 10 2020

7:59AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 9-13)

High pressure sinks to the south of New England today and allows the return of a humid southwesterly air flow. A little instability in the atmosphere combined with daytime heating may kick off a few isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms, otherwise most areas will be rain-free. The heat and humidity will be in control Monday and Tuesday with very limited shower and thunderstorm risk each afternoon. This risk increases as a cold front crosses the region slowly from northwest to southeast during midweek, with activity favoring areas near and northwest of the I-95 belt Wednesday afternoon and near to southeast of the I-95 belt Thursday, based on current expected timing.

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Slight risk of isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. More humid. Highs 84-91, cooler South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Humid. Lows 63-70. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Slight risk of an isolated afternoon thunderstorm. Humid. Highs 85-92. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 66-73. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Slight risk of isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Humid. Highs 87-94. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 68-75. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly afternoon to early evening and favoring areas along and northwest of I-95. Humid. Highs 85-92. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Risk of a shower early. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms favoring areas from the I-95 belt southeastward. Humid. Highs 81-88. Wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming N.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 14-18)

High pressure builds north of the region with somewhat cooler and less humid air August 14-16. Should remain dry through the period but some moisture may be close enough to the South Coast for a few showers there. Northward moving boundary and approaching disturbance may bring a more widespread shower threat for August 17 leading higher humidity into the region for the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 19-23)

Warm and humid weather through the middle of the period with a risk of a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day then a better shot of showers and storms later in the period with a frontal boundary nearby.

C-19 Chat Post – August 9 2020

8:25AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 8-12)

A weak disturbance crosses the region today with still some cloudiness in the region, even some showers/thunderstorms crossing the northern reaches of the WHW forecast area in south central NH early this morning. There will be enough solar heating today to create sea breezes and those boundaries, especially the ones near the South Coast, may trigger a few showers to form during the day today as well. High pressure then gains control for Sunday which will feature lots of sun and the feel of summer. This high will sink to the south and the resultant southwesterly air flow will increase the heat and humidity for Monday and Tuesday, both days generally rain-free other than the risk of a pop up afternoon thunderstorm. A cold front approaching Wednesday cutting into the warm/humid air mass will mean a better risk for the development of showers and thunderstorms.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm threat south central NH into mid morning. Isolated showers favoring the South Coast this afternoon. Highs 77-84, coolest in coastal areas. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with sea breezes developing.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 60-67. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87, cooler some coastal areas. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 62-69. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Slight risk of an isolated afternoon thunderstorm. Humid. Highs 85-92. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 66-73. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Humid. Highs 87-94. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 68-75. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly afternoon to early evening. Humid. Highs 85-92. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 13-17)

The front that arrives August 12 may still be hanging around in southeastern areas for an additional risk of a shower or thunderstorm into August 13 before a push of drier air later in the day into August 14, but that frontal boundary may never really get that far to the south at all and complete clearing may never take place. The same boundary may result in a lot of cloudiness over the August 15-16 weekend, and with high pressure centered to the north and northeast of the region, this should keep the air moderated, temperature-wise. By the end of the period the high should have pushed a little more to the south allowing the boundary to push more to the north, but this may mean a rare showery day if things come together just so. Can’t say I’m too confident forecasting rainfall on day 10 during a drought.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 18-22)

Typical August weather, humid, warm to hot, a few showers/thunderstorms, but overall rainfall pattern below average.

C-19 Chat Post – August 8 2020

7:17AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 7-11)

A frontal boundary south of New England and a weak wave of low pressure moving along it will bring lots of cloudiness to the region today. Some showers will occur, and while they are most likely in the South Coast region they can make it anywhere up into the vicinity of I-90. A weak surface trough and upper level disturbance may trigger a few more showers Saturday, favoring areas south and southwest of Boston. High pressure will be in control by Sunday with a return to the full feel of summer, and as the high sinks south of the region early next week the heat and humidity will be back, along with a risk of thunderstorms by Tuesday as a cold front approaches.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers mid morning on, favoring areas south of I-90. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind E-SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly to partly cloudy. A few showers possible near the South Coast early. Lows 61-68. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers favoring northeastern CT, south central MA, and RI. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind E-NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 60-67. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87, cooler some coastal areas. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 62-69. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Humid. Highs 85-92. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 66-73. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Humid. Highs 86-93. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 12-16)

High humidity and a shower/thunderstorm risk August 12 with a cold front slowly passing through the region. Trending drier and cooler August 13-14 as the front pushes to the south and high pressure builds north of the region. August 15-16 weekend may feature a lot of clouds with that frontal boundary nearby to the south and high pressure hanging to the north and northeast of the region, but I’d favor drier over wetter weather.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 17-21)

The possibility of a showery day to start the period marking the transition back to higher humidity and some mid August heat. Low confidence but will watch for this pattern transition.

C-19 Chat Post – August 7 2020

7:22AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 6-10)

High pressure builds in today, centered north of our area, providing nice weather and air a little cooler and less humid than what we saw yesterday. A frontal boundary to the south will develop a wave of low pressure along it that will bring cloudiness and the risk of some shower activity on Friday, which may persist into Saturday before high pressure regains control and brings drier weather back later Saturday through Sunday as it pushes to the south, then continues drifting southward far enough to allow a southwesterly flow and some heat and humidity back by Monday…

TODAY: Partly cloudy morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 80-87 except cooling back to the upper 70s some coastal areas. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with developing coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 60-67. WindSE-E under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers, mainly midday and afternoon. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind E-SE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 61-68. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind E-NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 60-67. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87, cooler some coastal areas. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 62-69. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Humid. Highs 85-92. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 11-15)

Hot and humid with a risk of a few afternoon thunderstorms on August 11 with high pressure centered off the East Coast. Warm and humid with scattered showers/thunderstorms August 12 as the high remains offshore and a cold front approaches. Front passes through the region August 13 with a humid start and a risk of showers followed by a drier finish. Cooler/drier August 14-15.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 16-20)

High pressure builds across the region then sinks to the south. This is a mainly dry pattern, starting with seasonable temperatures which then warm to above normal.

C-19 Chat Post – August 6 2020