12:44AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 13-17)

This one’s easy. High pressure will sit over southeastern Canada and the northeastern US for the next 5 days. With its center north to northeast of the region, a general easterly air flow will dominate, starting out a bit northeasterly this weekend then shifting more southeasterly toward the middle of next week. This set-up prevents significant heat and also keeps humidity generally low. A negative aspect is the lack of beneficial rain. Our rainfall deficit continues to increase and watering will be essential for development of crops and maintenance of flower gardens. Brush fire danger will also be running above normal.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-70 coast, 70-75 inland. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 48-55. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 62-67 coast, 67-72 inland. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 46-53. Wind E under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70, coolest coast. Wind E up to 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 48-55. Wind E under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-57. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-73 coast, 73-78 inland. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 18-22)

High pressure slips further southeast, to east of New England, with more of a southerly air flow resulting. This will increase the warmth and humidity gradually heading toward the end of this week, and with a little more moisture from the south and an approaching frontal boundary from the west, we’ll see a risk of some shower and thunderstorm activity especially during the second half of the period (June 20-22).

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 23-27)

A transition to a more zonal (west to east) pattern, but may be marked with a rare episode of wet weather around June 24. Drier weather follows with temperatures warming to more seasonable levels.

C-19 Chat Post – June 13 2020

7:35AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 12-16)

High pressure gives a cold front a final push offshore this morning and then the high is basically the dominant force in our weather for the next 5 days, holding low pressure to the south at bay. We may see some cloudiness at times, but despite some torrential downpours associated with yesterday’s humidity and approaching front, this remains a dry pattern overall.

TODAY: Clouds and showers, a few heavy, lingering over Cape Cod & The Islands until mid morning followed by clearing there. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy elsewhere. Less humid. Highs 78-85. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 53-60. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 67-72 coast, 73-78 inland. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 48-55. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind E under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind E under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 17-21)

High pressure remains centered to the north and northeast of the region with an easterly to southeasterly air flow modifying temperatures while weather remains dry during the middle of next week, then high pressure shifts more to the southeast allowing a little more of a southerly wind, higher humidity, and a slight increase in the risk of a shower as another frontal boundary gets closer later next week.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 22-26)

With low confidence leaning toward a little bit more conventional zonal flow and a more summery feel to the pattern, but still with limited shower and thunderstorm chances.

C-19 Chat Post – June 12 2020

7:21AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 11-15)

Humidity will be up today ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. The combination of these 2 will also produce lots of cloudiness and the risk of showers. While the thunderstorm risk is present, it’s not as prominent as it would be with more of a southwesterly wind and more sunshine to destabilize the atmosphere. Today’s cloud cover and southerly wind will act as limiting factors, and where there is more sun for a time (Cape Cod area) the wind coming over water for a longer time is even more of a limiting factor for storms in that area. This front will be weakening and washing out as it passes through the region, and while the humidity will come down a few notches for Friday, it won’t dry out that much, so with it being warmer with more sunshine it may still feel somewhat humid, until another frontal boundary or trough comes through sometime Friday evening, devoid of shower activity, but introducing cooler and drier air to start the weekend as high pressure builds across eastern Canada. During the weekend and into Monday, low pressure will take shape just south of New England, but will be on the weaker side and should be held at bay by the high to the north, although the circulation between the 2 will create an easterly air flow which is a cooler set-up for this area during the late spring / early summer due to the cool water of the North Atlantic. While I’m expecting mostly dry conditions during this time, there will be varying amounts of cloudiness to deal with.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and a slight risk of thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 75-82, cooler South Coast. Wind S-SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Risk of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Humid. Lows 63-70. Wind S-SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Slightly less humid., Highs 77-84. Wind SW-W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Lows 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind N 5-15 MPH shifting to NE.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 66-73, coolest coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of a shower South Coast. Highs 66-73, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 16-20)

The pattern in place over the weekend and Monday will continue through the middle of next week. Close call whether or not low pressure can get close enough to produce some rainfall, but even if it does, it would probably be limited as the overall pattern remains dry. A break-down of this set-up allows a more southerly air flow and warmer and more humid conditions later in the period, but with limited shower and thunderstorm chances still.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 21-25)

Large scale pattern is expected to feature a ridge in the middle of the US and a weak to moderate northwesterly air flow over the Northeast. This would be a pattern of variable temperatures but no prolonged heat, but would allow for a little more of a summertime feel. Below normal rainfall is expected but 1 or 2 shower/t-storm chances are possible in this pattern from disturbances moving along the flow.

C-19 Chat Post – June 11 2020

7:33AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 10-14)

We’ll be in boundary-land for several days, and the position of that and the wind direction will have the biggest impact on the weather for the region. Breaks down this way… Today we’ll be in an easterly air flow ahead of a warm front, with some sun then clouds eventually becoming more dominant, then the front passes tonight and the humidity spikes into Thursday, a day that will feature a lot of clouds but a limited shower threat. There is not really enough instability to kick off widespread or very heavy activity, though a downpour cannot be ruled out here and there, mainly later in the day or evening Thursday as a cold front moves into the region. This front will pass through, technically, as it washes out early Friday which will be less humid, but not that much drier. We’ll have to wait for another boundary and a push of cooler/drier air to arrive by early Saturday, but this boundary should be passing by without any shower activity. High pressure from the Great Lakes to eastern Canada should be strong enough to keep that boundary from becoming much of an issue with wet weather this weekend, although we’ll probably have to deal with some cloudiness at times. Expect the weekend to feature a cooling trend, much like last weekend.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 68-73 coast, 74-79 inland. Wind E-SE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. More humid. Lows 58-65. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and possible thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 75-82, cooler South Coast. Wind S-SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Risk of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Humid. Lows 63-70. Wind S-SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Slightly less humid., Highs 77-84. Wind SW-W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Lows 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind N 5-15 MPH shifting to NE.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 66-73, coolest coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 15-19)

Overall pattern features high pressure in eastern Canada and low pressure south of New England. Low pressure may get close enough for more cloudiness and a risk of some wet weather at times through mid period followed by drier weather again. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 20-24)

Large scale pattern is expected to feature a ridge in the middle of the US and a weak to moderate northwesterly air flow over the Northeast. This would be a pattern of variable temperatures but no prolonged heat, but would allow for a little more of a summertime feel than the days preceding it will have. Below normal rainfall is expected but 1 or 2 shower/t-storm chances are possible in this pattern from disturbances moving along the flow.

C-19 Chat Post – June 10 2020

7:13AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 9-13)

Easily my worst forecast for a day in advance in quite some time. The first push of warming at the surface and aloft produced far more cloudiness than I anticipated just 24 hours prior, so we get a cloudy start to the day today and even some patches of rain across southern NH and northeastern MA to go along with it. If I was going to miss that badly it could have at least turned out to be a more significant rainfall to help out with our abnormally dry conditions, but that’s not the case. So today will feature less sun than I had previously advertised here as we get a warm front starting to approach the region and a northwesterly air flow aloft pushing moisture down across the region. This is not an atypical late spring / early summer set-up here, but I didn’t anticipate it being this pronounced. Other than the showers that are around to start the day, I don’t expect much more in the way of precipitation until Wednesday night when we have gotten into the warm and more humid air and then a cold front will approach from the west, continuing that chance of shower and possible thunderstorm activity Thursday. This front will clear the region Friday with a push of slightly drier air into the region, although it will be the warmest of the next 4 days. Things change on Saturday when high pressure builds in eastern Canada and we turn cooler again, probably with some cloudiness but dry weather.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers possible through mid morning southern NH and eastern MA. Highs 73-80. Wind NW 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming E.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 67-74 coast, 75-82. Wind E-SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Risk of showers. More humid. Lows 58-65. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and possible thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 77-84, cooler South Coast. Wind S-SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Risk of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Humid. Lows 63-70. Wind S-SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Slightly less humid., Highs 77-84. Wind SW-W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Lows 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind N 5-15 MPH shifting to E.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 14-18)

Overall pattern features high pressure in eastern Canada and low pressure south of New England. High pressure should be strong enough for dry weather to start, then low pressure may be close enough for more cloudiness and occasional showers middle of the period before drier weather returns later in the period. Even with a potential period of unsettled weather in here it does not look like our region will receive very much in the way of beneficial rain.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 19-23)

Large scale pattern is expected to feature a ridge in the middle of the US and a weak to moderate northwesterly air flow over the Northeast. This would be a pattern of variable temperatures but no prolonged heat, but would allow for a little more of a summertime feel than the days preceding it will have. Below normal rainfall is expected but 1 or 2 shower/t-storm chances are possible in this pattern from disturbances moving along the flow.

C-19 Chat Post – June 9 2020

7:25AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 8-12)

High pressure will be in control of the weather into Wednesday. Its center north of the region means a pleasantly dry and comfortable start to the week. It then shifts southeastward toward midweek and starts to open the door to more warmth and humidity. But don’t expect a sudden jump into summer heat and oppressiveness either. The increase will be marked by a warm frontal passage later Wednesday including cloudiness but probably without a rainfall risk. When it’s dry, it’s dry. The remains of Cristobal will move northward through the Great Lakes into southern Canada, well west of New England, during midweek and join forces with a disturbance coming from the west to create a powerful low pressure area in the western Great Lakes and southern Canada. That will be a broad enough system to create enough pressure gradient for a significant breeze around here by Thursday, when a cold front will also be approaching. So we’ll have a more humid day that day, along with some cloudiness. It looks like any shower and possible thunderstorm activity with that cold front will hold off until late Thursday or more likely Thursday night, and will probably not result in a widespread significant rainfall either. The front will be fairly weak by the time it gets here so while Friday may end up rain free with fair weather, it will probably not be that much less humid, though still not oppressive either.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 52-59. Wind N under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 74-81. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 53-60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 76-83. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 57-64. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. A shower or thunderstorm possibly mainly interior southern NH, central MA and northeastern CT by late-day. More humid. Highs 77-84 except cooler Cape Cod and immediate South Coast. Wind S-SW increasing to 15-25 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Risk of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Humid. Lows 63-70. Wind S-SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Slightly less humid., Highs 77-84. Wind SW-W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 13-17)

There is some uncertainty in the forecast for this 5-day period and conflicting model guidance. For now I am sticking with the same general idea I have had of some additional humidity and a chance of a few showers / t-storms for June 13 then a bit drier June 14. Next system brings clouds and possibly a shower threat June 15 with models touting a low pressure area stuck nearby not being accurate, and a more progressive pattern ending up being reality. This would also keep rainfall chances limited through the end of the period as well as weak high pressure would end up back in control.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 18-22)

A slower evolution and weaker set-up for the blocking I mentioned in previous updates, high pressure in eastern Canada being dominant, low pressure south being weaker. This is probably a dry pattern without any significant heat. Confidence remains quite low with this pattern evolution so additional adjustments may be needed in addition to the usual adding of detail as these days get closer.

C-19 Chat Post – June 8 2020

8:11AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 7-11)

Well, we had our showers and thunderstorms around yesterday, as expected. What was definitely a surprise to me was the potency of some of the early nighttime storms, which I expected to appear as just isolated showers. Apparently the atmosphere had other ideas, and while these were not potent storms for everyone, the areas that got them surely knew it. My second chase of the day ended up being the better of the 2, and yieleded me 2 pictures that I will post in the comments. And now onto the weather forecast! No big changes today. Still expecting lots of clouds to dominate and some pop up showers with cold air aloft and the help of a little convergence between a northeasterly wind near the coast and a more north to northwest wind inland. Some media have termed today’s activity just sprinkles, but there is actually the chance that a few of these could build enough to release brief downpours, and even some small hail, so don’t be surprised if that occurs somewhere. One thing you’ll really notice today is it being much cooler and less humid than the 2 days preceding it. Refreshing, almost a little chilly. High pressure pushes further south to make Monday a much sunnier, dry and pleasant day. By Tuesday, it’s weakening and slipping offshore and the moderation begins, both surface, and aloft, and in a couple of stages brings the temperature back up toward midweek, but you won’t really feel a humidity increase until Wednesday and especially Thursday. By that time, a cold front will be approaching from the west and may increase the shower risk on Thursday, but that initial push of that front may run out of steam.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of showers, mainly afternoon favoring the I-95 belt. A few showers may be briefly heavy and possibly contain small hail. Highs 65-70 coast, 70-75 inland Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 50-57. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 48-55. Wind N under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 52-59. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 76-83. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 57-64. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of a shower. More humid. Highs 76-83. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 12-16)

Higher humidity and a few potential rounds of showers and possible thunderstorms as a frontal system approaches and passes through during June 12-13. Remnant moisture from Cristobal goes into Canada. Drier weather June 14. Clouds and a shower threat may return later in the period but unsure how that evolves at this time. Some guidance has hinted at blocking trying to set-up with low pressure developing nearby. I think this is over-done and that we’ll still see progression and probably a weak low passing by late in the period, but this is the day 9-10 period so very low confidence this far out.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 17-21)

A slower evolution and weaker set-up for the blocking I mentioned, high pressure in eastern Canada being dominant, low pressure south being weaker. This is probably a dry pattern without any significant heat. Confidence is quite low here so much adjustment to this time period may be coming.

C-19 Chat Post – June 7 2020

7:53AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 6-10)

Update and adjustment time. Not too many big adjustments to the forecast as we begin the weekend. Today, a cold front will cross the region, cutting into the humid air and causing some showers and thunderstorms to pop up. Where some of the shorter range guidance had one rather thin line of showers/storms on yesterday’s runs, they have adjusted to a more scattered line-segment set-up on recent runs. Either way, the region runs risk of 1 or 2 showers and/or thunderstorms in any given location with timing being mainly noon to 6PM favoring the northwestern half of the region (southwestern NH through central MA to near the I-95 belt) during the first three hours and areas to the southeast during the remainder of the afternoon. By this evening, it will all settle down and we’ll already be seeing drier air flowing into the region behind the cold front. This sets up a beautiful Sunday, night? Not so fast. For a couple days now I’ve been eyeing the possibility that Sunday will at least feature cloudiness and possibly some shower activity. Both look to be the case, but it won’t be a wash-out, not nearly so. A low pressure area will develop offshore on the front that has gone by, high pressure will be centered in eastern Canada, and there will be cold air aloft. This combination will produce lots of clouds and some pop up shower activity with the greatest shower risk being during the afternoon hours of Sunday over southeastern NH, eastern MA, and RI. Drier air will win out eventually and both Monday & Tuesday look like much sunnier days but with temperatures still slightly below average. By Wednesday, we will see a warm up as we’ll have seen high pressure shift its way southeastward and we’ll be into a west to southwest air flow at that time. Sometimes these warm-ups are met with more cloud cover, other times not really, so I am playing it down the middle for now.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Risk of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, favoring areas I-95 belt northwestward first half of afternoon, then areas to the southeast mid through late afternoon. Humid, then drying out late-day. Highs 80-87, cooler Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW by late afternoon.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Less humid. Lows 55-62. Wind NW up to 10 MPH shifting to N.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of showers, mainly afternoon favoring the I-95 belt. Highs 65-70 coast, 70-75 inland Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 50-57. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 48-55. Wind N under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 52-59. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 76-83. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 11-15)

Advancing warmer air and higher humidity means more cloudiness but limited rain chances June 11, then a better chance of showers and possible thunderstorms as a frontal system approaches and passes through during June 12-13. It still looks like the main moisture from whatever is left of T.S. Cristobal (expected to move from the Gulf of Mexico into the central US) moves into Canada and misses this area, which is in need of significant rain. Dry weather is expected with lower humidity by June 14 and quick-moving systems may send cloudiness and warmer air back into the region by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 16-20)

High pressure dominant in eastern Canada and weak systems in the US indicates a drier and slightly cooler than average pattern for our region for mid June. Some guidance indicates a little more grim a picture, with a broad low pressure area evolving to turn the region wetter. While I do think that general pattern is possible, the wetter weather would likely evolve further south, keeping this area on the drier side.