7:32AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 14-18)

And just like that, the outlook is not quite the same. It almost caught me, and somewhat did, but there were suspicions yesterday, and as they day went on and today arrived they became larger, and the classic “spring thing” will be taking place. How big of an impact it has here is still somewhat unknown. What is the “classic spring thing”? If you ask most meteorologists who have more than 1 seasons of forecasting experience in spring in New England, they will think of either the ocean’s influence on temperature (locally), or the atmosphere’s tendency to do things that are not quite west-to-east (regionally). Both will be the case before the end of this 5 day period, and we’ll continue the story in the 6-10 day period below. But before we get there, let’s rewind to today, a nice day overall, definitely less windy and much milder than the last 2 days have been, but you’ll start to see an increase in high and mid level cloudiness as the day goes on, and this is the atmosphere’s response to increasing warmth and humidity aloft. That is a warm front approaching, and the front will get into the area, but may not completely get through it. I’m still concerned that the front may never fully make it beyond northeastern MA and southeastern NH Friday, while a good portion of the region gets into the warm sector between that warm front and an approaching cold front. So that sets up a tricky forecast for Friday, yup, the day-2 forecast, for both temperature and weather, when areas to the northeast, say Hampton Beach NH for example, could be stuck in the 50s while the suburbs southwest of Boston are pushing into the 70s. In addition, after we get through some warm frontal rainfall initially from tonight into the early hours of Friday, we’ll then have to watch for the development of showers and thunderstorms as the cold front approaches. Areas that get into the warm air stand the greatest chance of seeing the strongest storms, with a few possibly becoming severe. The greatest chance of this in the WHW forecast area would be northeastern CT, northwestern RI, and adjacent south central MA. Closer to the South Coast, a wind off the water would limit this chance, and the lack of deeper warm air would do the same in areas to the north and east of the higher risk area. So this will be something to watch – updated again on tomorrow morning’s blog post and of course when any new ideas can be shared in the comments section. Beyond that, it looks like before the “typical spring thing” happens, we’ll have a fairly decent weekend: fair weather Saturday, coolest on the coast, then increasing clouds Sunday ahead of the next low pressure system, but rainfall may hold off at least until Sunday evening, and possibly until Monday. What takes place on Monday is likely to be different than what I had been touting in previous blog posts. I’d been optimistic that what we would have been dealing with is one low pressure system coming along in the jet stream, giving us its wet weather late Sunday to early Monday, then moving along. But it’s not that simple. An area of showers and thunderstorms coming out of the Bahamas is going to enter an area off the US Southeast Coast that is favorable for early tropical development, not really purely tropical, but a hybrid type system, or potential subtropical storm, and just enough of a dip in the jet stream carrying our system in from the west will draw this system northward. When this happens, the upper level steering currents can see a low pressure area that becomes separated from the jet stream, so it doesn’t just move along and depart. It hangs around, maybe moving westward for a while or doing a loop. This process will be just getting underway Monday, which now looks wet, breezy, and chilly.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 63-70 except 55-62 South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. A period of rain likely. Lows 48-55. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Showers and thunderstorms likely from mid afternoon on, some possibly strong, favoring interior southern MA, northern RI, and northeastern CT. Highs 55-62 South Coast, NH Seacoast, northeastern MA, 62-69 interior southeastern NH, Merrimack Valley, and remainder of southern NH and far eastern MA, 70-77 interior southern MA, northern RI, and northeastern CT. Wind SE 5-15 MPH coastal NH and northeastern MA, SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts elsewhere.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with showers and possible thunderstorms, especially RI and southeastern MA. Gradual clearing overnight. Lows 48-55. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing overnight.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 56-63 coast, 64-71 interior. Wind SE 5-15 MPH

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy valley fog. Lows 43-50. Wind S under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 55-60 coast, 60-65 interior. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows 45-52. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts coastal areas.

MONDAY: Overcast. Periods of rain/drizzle. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady 45-52. Wind E-NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts coastal areas.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 19-23)

This 5-day period’s weather largely depends on the movement and behavior of a broad area of low pressure just to the south of the region. Current idea is for cool/wet/breezy conditions to start, then lots of clouds and occasional drizzle/showers hanging on for a couple more days before low pressure is then replaced by a southerly air flow, warmer temperatures and higher humidity with additional showers as one of the remaining lows approaches as a trough from the west later in the period, with finally some clearing possible by the very end of the period. This complex evolution idea will probably change so monitor future updates.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 24-28)

Watching for high pressure in eastern Canada which may put a boundary between cool Canadian air and much warmer air to the south nearby. Tricky forecast in here, but leaning toward more unsettled days than fair ones.

C-19 Chat Post – May 14 2020

7:41AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 13-17)

A chilly start this morning – you felt it sting a bit if you were out there early. This, I can safely say, is the last “cold” morning of the spring, in terms of genuine chilly air with polar or arctic origin that isn’t modified enough not to have a bite. The upcoming weather pattern prevents another such event soon, and beyond that, climatology says “nope!”. Now this does not include the kind of chill you can get with a heavy overcast and a wind off the water. We haven’t actually seen much of that this spring, other than during some passing low pressure areas to the south, but we can still see some of that, but not in the next few days at least, as we experience a bit of a warm up through Friday. This will not come without a price though. First we do have a nice albeit cool and breezy day today, sunshine dominant but some clouds forming and passing by in the wind . Thursday’s going to be noticeably milder, but there will be some increase in high and mid level clouds as previously mentioned, due to the warming atmosphere. This will lead to a period of rain at night as a warm front approaches. Will this front make it all the way through the WHW forecast area? I think so, but it may take its time getting by the NH Seacoast, so if that area ends up somewhat cooler than my high temperature forecast for Thursday, or doesn’t reach those highs until late afternoon, don’t be surprised. Friday will be an active weather day at both ends, with early wet weather from the warm front, and mid afternoon to evening showers and thunderstorms with a cold front. Friday’s high temperatures and intensity of thunderstorms are both depending on how much sun we see during the middle portion of the day. More sun = warmer and stronger storms. Less sun = not quite as warm but less potent storms. Not looking for a widespread severe weather event but just something to watch. What about the weekend? Mostly good. A tad cooler but still very nice, and dry Saturday, with the coast likely coolest of all. Sunday probably clouds over, at least as a low pressure area approaches from the west, being in the Great Lakes at that time. A wild card is whether or not we bring lower clouds in off the ocean as the wind will be turning southeast to east by then. Wet weather may arrive before the day is over as well from the system to the west, but the bulk of it should hold off til night.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 63-70 except 55-62 South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. A period of rain likely. Lows 48-55. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 55-62 South Coast, 62-69 East Coast, 70-77 interior. Wind SW 10-20 MPH except may be lighter and still SE near the NH Seacoast for a while.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds and a risk of showers early then clearing. Lows 48-55. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH evening, diminishing overnight.

SATURDAY: Sun and a few clouds. Highs 56-63 coast, 64-71 interior. Wind variable 5-15 MPH with sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 43-50. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of rain late-day or night. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind SE-E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 18-22)

May 18 looks unsettled as low pressure sits south of the region before moving away – this would result in damp and cool weather but not sure how much rain at this time. Leaning now toward a slower evolution and departure of low pressure, so unsettled/chilly weather may linger into the middle of next week before brief improvement, but the end of the period while warmer may end up showery with a system from the west.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 23-27)

Watching for high pressure in eastern Canada which may put a boundary between cool Canadian air and much warmer air to the south nearby. Don’t infer 5 unsettled days from this, but day-to-day weather can’t be determined with this pattern. Just expect variable conditions.

C-19 Chat Post – May 13 2020

7:34AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 12-16)

Three dry days (mostly). Today and Wednesday will feature a cool breeze and some diurnal cloudiness popping up from the heating of the sun, but these are fair weather clouds and while the breeze will seem cooler when the blot out the sun, overall it will be a nice couple of days despite the lack of warmth. We will also see a small disturbance pass by tonight with some extra cloudiness. It will warm up noticeably on Thursday but we’ll also see some high and mid level clouds as the upper atmosphere warms as well. I still think the daytime is dry but at night an area of rain likely arrives as a warm front moves in. This front will pass through by early Friday, which may start cloudy. The main thing to be watched for Friday is not so much how warm it gets, and it could get pretty warm depending on how deeply into a warm air mass and how much sun wet get. I’m leaning a little bit toward a shorter time in the warm air and less sun, and a better chance of showers. But the lack of sun may limit thunderstorm chances that day as well. It’s still a bit early to really talk in detail about that day but this will be re-evaluated with coming updates. Regardless, Saturday looks like a great day as the air behind the cold front will not be that chilly as high pressure returns.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 53-60. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 33-40. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 63-70 except 55-62 South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. A period of rain likely. Lows 48-55. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of showers and thunderstorms. Highs ranging from 55-62 Cape Cod and South Coast to 67-74 interior valley locations. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds and a risk of showers early then clearing. Lows 48-55. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and a few clouds. Highs 56-63 coast, 64-71 interior. Wind variable 5-15 MPH with sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 17-21)

Watching for a back-door cold front to turn it much cooler during May 17 while moisture from the west as well as from off the ocean combine to bring cloudiness and eventually wet weather. May 18 transition day – starts wet then turns dry and breezy. Fair, warmer May 19-20. Shower risk at the end of the period with a system arriving from the west.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 22-26)

General pattern in this time frame continues to look zonal (west to east) overall, but there may be a tendency for more high pressure in eastern Canada which introduces back-door cold front risks and some temperature complications in the forecast – typical springtime in New England.

C-19 Chat Post – May 12 2020

7:44AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 11-15)

This 5 day period will feature 3 fair weather days sandwiched by 2 unsettled ones. If you’re reading this not long after I post it you may look outside and say “what do you mean unsettled? …it’s sunny!” .. Well yes, it is starting out sunny on this Monday morning but a fast-moving low pressure system is going to deliver clouds in rather rapid fashion as we go through the morning, and probably a decent round of showers, at least for most of the region, from the end of the morning through the early afternoon from southwest to northeast, briefly putting us into the warm sector between the warm front and approaching cold front, which will trigger additional showers and possible thunderstorms from west to east during the afternoon. While a widespread severe weather outbreak won’t be occurring, conditions are marginal for a few of the storms to attain severe levels, producing potentially damaging wind gusts and some hail as well. Generally, I expect most of the activity to be more benign, but stay alert in case. This activity skedaddles out of here this evening once the cold front passes, and we get yet another shot of chilly air behind it for Tuesday and Wednesday. Both days will features a gusty breeze and diurnal cloudiness, probably more cloudiness/wind/chilly air Tuesday than Wednesday. By Thursday, you’ll notice the air turning much milder as the high pressure area that delivers the chill will have moved off to the east and its return flow will be pulling air from a warmer source region. Along with this may come some increased high and mid level cloudiness as the upper air warms. For now, expecting it to remain dry for the daytime hours of Thursday.

TODAY: Sunny start then clouding over with showers arriving southwest to northeast by late morning through early afternoon. Remaining mostly cloudy with additional showers and a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon. Highs 58-65. Wind S 5-15 MPH, gusts over 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with a chance of rain showers early, then clearing. Lows 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 53-60. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 63-70 except 55-62 South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Risk of rain. Lows 48-55. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of showers and thunderstorms. Highs ranging from 55-62 Cape Cod and South Coast to 70-77 interior valley locations. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 16-20)

Bubble of high pressure brings fair but continued mild weather May 16. Watching for a back-door cold front to turn it much cooler during May 17 while moisture from the west as well as from off the ocean combine to bring cloudiness and eventually wet weather. May remain somewhat unsettled May 18 with additional drizzle/showers but temperatures may range from quite cool coast to milder inland. Should transition back to fair and seasonably mild weather May 19-20 as high pressure moves in.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 21-25)

General pattern in this time frame continues to look zonal (west to east) and more relaxed toward seasonably milder with a couple minor rainfall threats.

C-19 Chat Post – May 11 2020

8:31AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 10-14)

Today will be an improvement over yesterday, weather-wise, though I have to admit I was pretty stoked to see snow, graupel, and really neat clouds yesterday. I’m an exception to the rule, I get that. Most of you want to see a more traditional type of spring weather, by the definition you’d read. While May snow is quite rare, chilly spring weather is not, and we’ll have more of that today along with a gusty breeze, but today will not be as cold as yesterday, nor will the wind be nearly as strong. There will also be somewhat more sunshine, but it will still have to share the sky with clouds. But as previously mentioned, in stark contrast to last Mother’s Day, which was rainy with even some pockets of sleet, this one will be dry. And while we are on the subject, a happy mother’s day to all who qualify (you know who you are!). Looking ahead, still looks unsettled Monday due to a passing low pressure area. This one will have cold air aloft to work with but this time that is not going to aid in producing another May snowfall. This time it may help trigger a thunderstorm among the numerous showers passing through the region. And then things turn for the better as behind this, Tuesday through Thursday all look dry. Tuesday and Wednesday will be on the coolish side but not too bad, a gusty breeze at times, and some clouds at times as well, most of which will pass by Tuesday night fairly unnoticed as a weak disturbance traverses the region in an otherwise high pressure dominated couple days. We may see a little more cloudiness at times Thursday, an occurrence common to a warming of the atmosphere aloft.

TODAY: Sun / cloud mix. Highs 52-59. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 48-55. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a chance of rain showers early, then clearing. Lows 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 56-63. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 63-70 except 55-62 South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 15-19)

Warm front cold front combo crosses the region with parent low pressure tracking north of New England May 15 bringing mild air but some rain showers. Fair, slightly cooler May 16. Next low pressure system brings a risk of wet weather sometime in the May 17-18 time frame. Dry at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 20-24)

General pattern in this time frame continues to look zonal (west to east) and more relaxed toward seasonably milder with a couple minor rainfall threats.

C-19 Chat Post – May 10 2020

9:48AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 9-13)

Sorry I’m a little late with today’s blog weather update. I was outside playing in the snow, and listening to Christmas music. True, and true. Hey, I admit it. How often do you get to do that in May in southern New England? Not often. So now that I’m back in with a warm cup of cocoa and decorating my tree (ok that part is not true), it’s time to take a look at what’s coming up. The last of the flakes from this morning’s event are exiting via the coastline. But that is not necessarily the end of the threat of frozen stuff falling from the sky today, as the air both at the surface and aloft is anomalously cold, and as the departing storm intensifies, in addition to the blustery winds, lots of clouds will linger and some additional showers of rain, snow, and perhaps graupel may occur. The short explanation of graupel, sometimes called “soft hail”, is that it is basically rimed snowflakes partially melted and refrozen, almost the same way a hailstone forms in a thunderstorm, which then falls to earth resembling a tiny styrofoam ball. So if you see these today, don’t be surprised. These showers will not be widespread. If you get one, it will pass quickly. And tonight, get ready for a wintry feel to the air as the breeze keeps blowing and the temperature falls into the 30s with wind chills in the 20s. A little better for Sunday, more sun to start but additional clouds will still pop up with cold air aloft, but it will recover to the 50s. You’ll still have to deal with a gusty breeze at times if you’re outside. But unlike last Mother’s Day, it will be dry. Last year we had rain and cold and even some ice pellets (sleet) falling. So for some locations this is indeed the second year in a row with frozen precipitation on the second weekend of May. So will we be able to talk about something other than wintry stuff in May? Yes indeed. We will be starting a transition out of the current pattern before the end of this 5-day period, but don’t expect to suddenly jump into warm sunshine days. This will be a process, which will just be getting underway in the atmosphere. You won’t notice a big change through observation of sensible weather through this 5 day period. In fact, Monday we have another disturbance heading this way, small but rather potent, bringing at least a threat of showers, and perhaps even some thunderstorm activity, despite it being on the cool side still. Behind this comes a reinforcing shot of cool air but dry weather for Tuesday. A small disturbance will pass by with cloudiness Tuesday night or early Wednesday and then yet another cool and breezy but dry day can be expected Wednesday.

TODAY: Snow, rain to the south, ending from west to east through mid morning, but remaining mostly cloudy with additional showers of rain, snow, and possible graupel midday and afternoon. Highs 42-49. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, gusts 35-45 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny start mixed sun and clouds. Highs 52-59. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 48-55. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a chance of rain showers early, then clearing. Lows 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Lots of clouds early then sun and passing clouds. Highs 56-63. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 14-18)

Variable cloud cover at times but considerably milder May 14-15 as a warm front cold front combo crosses the region with parent low pressure tracking north of New England. Fair, slightly cooler May 16. Next low pressure system brings a risk of wet weather sometime in the May 17-18 time frame.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 19-23)

General pattern in this time frame looks zonal (west to east) and more relaxed toward seasonably milder with a couple minor rainfall threats.

C-19 Chat Post – May 9 2020

7:44AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 8-12)

High pressure brings nice weather to start today but clouds will be on the advance ahead of a cold front and developing low pressure system later, and tonight we’ll turn wet with rain arriving, but as the front pushes through the region and anomalous cold both surface and aloft arrive, we’re going to see rain flip to snow in the pre-dawn hours of Saturday in the higher elevations of central MA and southwestern NH to start, and then as the low pressure system, tracking northeastward close to the South Coast, starts to pull away, the mix/snow line will try to advance toward the coast. Now keeping in mind that it’s May, the worst that is likely to happen is up to an inch or so of slushy accumulation on unpaved surfaces in higher elevations and maybe a quick coating on grassy areas a little further southeast, into the Boston suburbs, which would melt in rapid fashion after daybreak Saturday, even if there were still flakes in the air for a while. Nevertheless we’ll be left with a blustery and unseasonably chilly Saturday, with lots of clouds and a passing shower of rain or even mixed rain/snow over the hills. This improves to a sunnier Sunday, still with some passing clouds, a breezy but not as windy, and a chilly feel to the air but not as cold as Saturday. I also think that we may be saved from a frost and potential late season freeze by the breeze that will keep the air mixed Sunday morning so the temperature doesn’t fall to it’s potential lowest level. At least this Mother’s Day won’t be rainy, mixed with sleet in some areas, like 2019’s. We’d also have to worry about a frost/freeze Sunday night / Monday morning, but I think the rapid movement of weather systems means a blanket of clouds will already be in place to keep temperatures in check. Another slug of rain is expected Monday with the passage of the next low pressure area, but this time rain, no snow involved. That moves away quickly and is replaced by high pressure with fair, cool weather Tuesday.

TODAY: Sunny start, cloudy finish. Highs 56-63. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusts over 20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arrives, changes to snow pre-dawn southwestern NH and central MA higher elevations with up to 1 inch possible on cold surfaces, may mix with snow into northwestern suburbs of Boston with a possible coating on grassy surfaces and car tops. Lows 33-40. Wind S 5-15 MPH early evening, shifting to N with higher gusts late evening.

SATURDAY: Cloudy early-mid morning with snow/mix northwest of Boston, rain/mix around Boston, rain to the southeast, tapering off west to east. Mostly cloudy with passing showers of rain/mix possible thereafter. Highs 42-49. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny start mixed sun and clouds. Highs 52-59. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Highs 48-55. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a chance of rain or drizzle early, then clearing. Lows 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 13-17)

General west to east flow pattern expected. Current timing would have it cool with a disturbance bringing the risk of a passing rain shower May 13, then dry and milder May 14. A system passing north of the region brings clouds and a brief wet weather threat later May 15 to early May 16 followed by fair and briefly cooler then milder through May 17.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 18-22)

General pattern in this time frame looks zonal (west to east) and more relaxed toward seasonably milder with a couple minor rainfall threats.

C-19 Chat Post – May 8 2020

7:37AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 7-11)

Low pressure moves away and we get a sliver of sunshine for a while, but the atmosphere is a bit unstable and that combined with an approaching trough means some clouds will develop and may lead to a spot rain shower this afternoon, and an additional rain shower tonight as the trough passes. Ah, so that means clearing tomorrow right? Wrong. Another low pressure area approaches, and while we may start the day with some sunshine Friday, we’ll end it with an overcast that will remind you have the sky just before a winter storm, and how ironic, because with enough cold air around, parts of the region will indeed see some May snowflakes with the low pressure area passing by Friday night and Saturday. Is this a set-up similar to the historic snowstorm of May 9-10 1977? Yes and no. Similar, but not quite as extreme, so at this point, despite you seeing or possibly hearing about model runs that bring significant snow amounts, for May, to near the coast, that is very unlikely to take place. Focus on interior higher elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH for the best place to see some snow accumulation in the early hours of Saturday from this system, but not out of the question that some mixing can take place at a few lower elevations to the south and east of there depending on how hard it precipitates. Either way, we’ll be feeling some unseasonably cold air on Saturday, which may set a record for the lowest high temperature for the date in many areas. Conditions improve on Sunday somewhat, as it will be a brighter Mother’s Day but will remain chilly for the season and also breezy. When we get to Monday yet another low pressure area will make a run at the region but this one looks weaker and should track further south. The air will also have moderated to milder overall (though still cooler than average). This system could largely miss but leaving a rain risk in the forecast.

TODAY: Sunshine to start then clouds popping up with a possible rain shower. Highs 48-55. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds. A possible rain shower. Lows 37-44. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Some sunshine then clouding over. Highs 50-57, coolest Cape Cod. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely, may mix with or turn to snow across interior higher elevations of northern MA and southwestern NH. Lows 33-40. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers of rain, possibly rain/snow mix higher elevations interior northern MA and southwestern NH. Highs 42-49. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny start then lots of clouds popping up. Highs 52-59. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Highs 48-55. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 12-16)

General west to east flow pattern expected. Current timing would have it dry and cool May 12, still cool with a disturbance bringing the risk of a passing rain shower May 13, then dry and milder May 14. A system passing north of the region brings clouds and a brief wet weather threat later May 15 to early May 16 followed by fair and cooler weather.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 17-21)

General pattern in this time frame looks zonal (west to east) and more relaxed toward seasonably milder with a couple minor rainfall threats.