C-19 Chat Post – May 7 2020

7:33AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 6-10)

Low pressure heads our way for tonight but before it arrives a good part of today will be nice as high pressure attempts to retain control. The day that starts sunny will end cloudy however as the low advances in this direction, its track taking it just south of New England early Thursday. This will be a rain producer but a few mixed in wet snowflakes cannot be ruled out if the rain falls heavily enough, and this is most likely over southeastern MA in the pre-dawn hours of Thursday. During the day Thursday clouds may break for a bit of sun but another trough of low pressure swinging through from west to east in the evening may produce an additional shower, and behind this comes a shot of unseasonably chilly air for May, setting up an interesting scenario for the next low pressure area, set to impact the region later Friday into Saturday. This one will take a similar track to the first one, but with colder air to work with, and precipitation expected to be a little more substantial, enough cold air can work down to mix it with or even change it to snow across higher elevations of southwestern NH and north central MA, where is where any accumulation (on non-paved surfaces) would take place. I can’t even rule out wet snow mixing in close to Boston. Once the main precipitation shield exits early Saturday, we’ll be left with a blustery day and a few rain/mix/snow showers, depending on your location. Flakes would still be most likely at interior higher elevations, but it will definitely feel more like a March day than one coming in nearly mid May, and very much in contrast to last weekend. Last year’s Mother’s Day was cold and wet with rain, and even some ice pellets mixed in. This year’s will be cool, but breezy and dry, as we’ll still be in the chilly air flow behind Saturday’s storm system. So the next 5 days will be a throw back to early spring, for sure.

TODAY: Sunshine then increasing clouds. Highs 53-60, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain developing. Rain may mix with wet snow briefly in some locations, favoring southeastern MA. Lows 37-44. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, strongest near the coast with gusts around or above 30 MPH Cape Cod.

THURSDAY: Cloudy start with rain possible eastern areas. Breaking clouds later. Highs 48-55. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds. A possible rain shower. Lows 37-44. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 50-57, coolest Cape Cod. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely, may mix with or turn to snow across interior higher elevations of northern MA and southwestern NH. Lows 33-40. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers of rain, possibly rain/snow mix higher elevations interior northern MA and southwestern NH. Highs 42-49. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 52-59. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 11-15)

Rain risk May 11 and dry May 12-13 with temperatures below normal. Milder May 14-15 with dry weather May 14 and a rain shower risk May 15.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 16-20)

Dry start and end to period with some unsettled weather mid period during a transition to a milder pattern.

C-19 Chat Post – May 6 2020

7:41AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 5-9)

We’re heading back to the cooler side of normal for the next several days, and you’ll really notice it by the end of this 5-day forecast period. Of these 5 days, today is probably the nicest of them all as high pressure controls the weather. It’s a cooler Canadian high but will provide dry weather, although the day starts out breezy before winds subside. Low pressure makes a run at the region later Wednesday, passing southeast of New England with the slug of rain, most of it falling Wednesday night, though clouds hang around Thursday as that low departs and a trough approaches from the west, perhaps triggering an additional rain shower. The next low pressure area will already be on the approach Friday so don’t expect much clearing for that day either, and this system will be a bit more potent as it passes, but once again it looks like the bulk of the steadiest precipitation will occur in the nighttime hours Friday to very early Saturday. This time, enough cold air will be involved so that some mixing or even a chance to snow is possible across the interior higher elevations. As the system pulls away on Saturday it will be blustery and unseasonably chilly for May with showers of rain and even mixed rain/snow across the interior hills continuing…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 53-60. Wind N 10-20 MPH then diminishing.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 36-43. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 53-60, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with sea breezes.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain developing. Lows 42-49. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, strongest near the coast with gusts around or above 30 MPH Cape Cod.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of rain showers. Highs 50-57. Wind NE 5-15 MPH early becoming variable.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds. A possible rain shower. Lows 37-44. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 50-57, coolest Cape Cod. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely, may mix with or turn to snow across interior higher elevations of northern MA and southwestern NH. Lows 33-40. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers of rain, possibly rain/snow mix higher elevations interior northern MA and southwestern NH. Highs 42-49. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 10-14)

Fair, very cool May 10. Temperatures continue below normal overall but not quite as chilly with 1 or 2 minor systems with rain shower threats between May 11 and May 14.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 15-19)

Temperatures trend a little closer to normal with a mid period risk of rain showers.

C-19 Chat Post – May 5 2020

7:45AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 4-8)
When I put a link to my colleague’s blog in the comments below, I suspect you’ll find similar forecasts between the two of us – nothing unusual there. He’s going to tell you that today will be the warmest day this week, which it will be, and that it won’t be as wet as last week, which it won’t be, but it’s going to turn quite cool, which it will, and that some areas may not have seen their final snowflakes of the season, which they may have not, but that threat is outside of my first section here as I suspect that risk to occur next weekend. So, let’s rewind a bit and summarize that as low pressure departs offshore we actually start the week with a clearing morning and mild air. This afternoon, a trough swings through with lots of clouds and spot showers. Any of these showers may be briefly heavy, but if you encounter one, it won’t last long at all. This is the leading edge of the cooler air that is the first of a few pushes, each one progressively cooler than the last. The second one will arrive behind low pressure that tracks southeast of New England late Wednesday and early Thursday, the precipitation largely staying offshore but a northward extension of low pressure or inverted trough probably bringing some showery conditions for a while Wednesday night into Thursday. A trough swings through Thursday night with an additional rain shower possible and this sends a push of even cooler air in on Friday ahead of the next low pressure system, which brings more cloudiness back in on Friday and the threat of some wet weather by Friday night, although this is somewhat uncertain at this time.
TODAY: Clouds over southeastern MA and RI and perhaps a brief touch of rain outer Cape Cod early morning otherwise increasing sunshine. Midday and afternoon clouds returning from northwest to southeast with isolated to scattered showers and possibly a few brief downpours. Highs 60-67. Wind variable up to 10 MPH morning, NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts this afternoon.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 35-42. Wind N 10-20 MPH, diminishing overnight.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 53-60. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 36-43. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 53-60, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with sea breezes.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers developing. Lows 43-50. Wind variable to N 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Cloudy morning with rain showers likely. Breaking clouds afternoon. Highs 50-57, coolest Cape Cod. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds. A possible rain shower. Lows 37-44. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 50-57, coolest Cape Cod. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 9-13)
A very cool May 9-10 weekend including a period of unsettled weather that will be mainly in the form of rain showers however at some point there could be mix or snow showers across the interior higher elevations. Mostly dry to follow but temperatures still below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 14-18)
Cool and dry to start period. Milder trend follows, some unsettled weather returns.

C-19 Chat Post – May 4 2020

8:33AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 3-7)
My college professors would probably call what is passing through this morning a “baroclinic zone” and not a front. Whatever it is, cloudiness and maybe a sprinkle accompany it, and behind it comes more plentiful sunshine and the warmest day in quite some time, again with a caveat of the typical cooler spots where a west wind does blow over water before crossing land again (outer Cape Cod for example). Enjoy today, because a transition back to cooler weather begins tomorrow, although our pattern these 5 days will be drier than recently. First, a wave of low pressure may briefly wet the South Coast early Monday before a cold front pushes northwest to southeast across the entire area during the day. High pressure will be in general control Tuesday and Wednesday before a weak low approaches during Thursday.
TODAY: Lots of clouds and a possible sprinkle of rain through mid morning then mostly sunny. Highs ranging from around 55 outer Cape Cod and Nantucket to 70-75 interior valleys. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clouding over. Risk of rain South Coast overnight. Lows 50-57. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of rain favoring the South Coast early. Slight risk of a rain shower anywhere else during the day. Highs 56-63,
coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH morning, N 10-20 MPH afternoon.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind variable under 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers late. Highs 60-67. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 8-12)
Risk of rain May 8 with a frontal boundary in the area. Much cooler, potentially near record setting cold, during the May 9-12 period. Uncertainly as to whether or not a storm system threatens around May 9 but the overall trend should be drier. Much fine-tuning to be done.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 13-17)
Cool and dry to start period. Milder trend follows, some unsettled weather returns.

C-19 Chat Post – May 3 2020

9:31AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 2-6)
The first weekend of May will be quite nice, and given that it’s coming in an overall pattern that is still cooler and wetter than average, we’re getting lucky. If you can safely enjoy some outside time, these next 2 days are the time to do it. You’ll have to endure a gusty breeze today, but the air will be quite mild in comparison to many recent days. The air aloft is still chilly enough so the sun’s heating of ground still a little wet from yesterday’s rainfall should combine to pop some cumulus clouds. On Sunday you’ll have to wait out some morning cloudiness and a passing rain shower threat, but if you’re looking for sunshine that will return by late morning or midday at the latest, lastly toward Cape Cod. But the reminder that we’re in the same general pattern comes the first few days of next week when we’ll watch a couple waves of low pressure. Interestingly, there is some significant model disagreement on how these features will track and interact with each other, but for now I am just going with the same general idea I had on yesterday’s update, and will make adjustments tomorrow if necessary. I think early Monday and later Tuesday to early Wednesday are the times when waves of low pressure will pass south of the region, all the while a larger circulation of low pressure being blocked from exiting North America via the Maritime Provinces of Canada will wobble its way east southeastward just north of New England and situate itself offshore. This means that regardless of any rainfall threat, the cooler weather will be returning after our mild weekend.
TODAY: Mostly sunny – some passing clouds. Highs 55-60 Cape Cod, 60-67 elsewhere. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts at times.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Risk of rain showers overnight. Lows 50-57. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy through mid morning including a risk of rain showers. Sun returning west to east late morning on. Highs 55-62 South Coast, 63-70 elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Risk of rain favoring southern areas overnight. Lows 48-55. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of rain favoring the South Coast early. Slight risk of a rain shower anywhere else during the day. Highs 56-63,
coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH morning, N 10-20 MPH afternoon.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Risk of rain South Coast late. Highs 55-62. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Risk of rain South Coast. Lows 45-52. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 55-62. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 7-11)
Temperatures below to much below normal. Greatest risk for unsettled weather middle of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 12-16)
Cool and dry to start period. Milder, risk of unsettled weather late period.

C-19 Chat Post – May 2 2020

7:28AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 1-5)
May is here! Happy May Day! Yes I know that here in southeastern New England the first of May is dawning overcast, foggy in some areas, and very rainy across the region, and that we also have “the same” weather pattern in place we’ve had in place for quite some time now. But one can look at this picture in a gloom and doom way or can find many positives. Let’s take the positive route. “The same” pattern does not mean that every day is cloudy, cold, wet, etc. … It means that the overall pattern is wetter and cooler than the long term average. We certainly saw that as there were frequent cloudy and many wet days. Boston set a record for its lowest high temperature for the month, 62, breaking the old one by 4 degrees. And while Boston’s rainfall was not substantially above normal for April, some other southeastern New England locations saw a greater positive departure. However, the bright side is that the region as a whole had been running a 2 to 4 inch precipitation deficit for the first 3 months of 2020, and now we have made some of that up, while providing favorable moisture for agriculture without causing any flooding. A couple other bright notes: Our sun angle is now as high as it is in early August, so even when it’s not sunny, the higher angle and length of day makes up for some of that. It may not seem that way first thing this morning, but overall the difference is notable and noticeable. Also, we are just over 2 weeks away from the first sunset of 8:00 p.m. or later (May 16). There is even something to look forward to in the shorter term, i.e., this 5-day period, because after we get rid of this ribbon of rain this morning, it tapers to showers and while today won’t turn out to be a great weather day, even though clouds may break for sun in some areas before the day is over and the chance for additional showers will be there, we are seeing things move along rather briskly in the atmosphere and this has resulted in an improved forecast for Saturday over what I was advertising the last couple days. And while the faster movement of things means that Sunday is now actually the “worst” of the 2 weekend days, it will not be all that bad either, with just some cloudiness and perhaps a passing shower as a front moves through, but this will be a weak system and the overall day will be dominated by dry weather and very mild air (with the exception of the normal cooler spots depending on wind direction and coastal set-up). When we get to Monday and Tuesday, the front that goes by Sunday will be sitting just to the south and may carry some impulses of low pressure along it, so we may have to watch for that, with current thoughts on timing of best chance of cloudiness and any rain threat being earlier Monday and later Tuesday, but even going out beyond day 3 trying to time this type of a pattern is rather difficult, so the forecast for these 2 days can change in any direction between now and then.
TODAY: Overcast morning with areas of fog, widespread showers, some heavy, tapering off from southwest to northeast mid to late morning. Mostly cloudy with breaks of sun possible this afternoon but also scattered showers and a slight risk of a thunderstorm mid to late afternoon. Highs 50-55 South Coast, 55-60 elsewhere, occurring late-day. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH interior, 15-25 MPH coast, a few higher gusts likely, shifting to SW 10-20 MPH with a few higher gusts possible this afternoon.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Risk of evening showers and a slight risk of thunder eastern areas early. Lows 46-53. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-60 Cape Cod, 60-67 elsewhere. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts at times.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Risk of rain showers overnight. Lows 50-57. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of rain showers early. Highs 55-62 South Coast, 63-70 elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Risk of rain favoring southern areas overnight. Lows 48-55. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of rain favoring southern areas morning. Highs 56-63, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Risk of rain South Coast late. Highs 55-62. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 6-10)
Cooler, dry May 6-8. Milder, risk of unsettled weather May 9-10.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 11-15)
Cooler, dry to start period. Milder, risk of unsettled weather late period.

C-19 Chat Post – May 1 2020

7:06AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 30-MAY 4)
On this final day of April we look at an overcast day, wet at times, but not a wash-out, as a warm front approaches the region, and look into the start of May which presents a continuation of the current unsettled and cool weather pattern. That front will never make it through the region, but a cold front approaching from the west, becoming an occluded front as it arrives while the warm front is still south of the region, will bring a band of widespread and possibly heavy showers (and potential embedded thunder) during Friday. I’ve had to tweak around the timing on that ribbon of rainfall, as first it looked earlier, then later, and now earlier, so basically morning-midday are the target hours for the heaviest, from west to east, and during the remainder of Friday we should settle into a pattern of more scattered showers. But even after the surface features moves offshore, its parent low will be decaying into a trough that will then have to sink southeastward, the tail of which has to come across New England while upper level low pressure traverses the region on Saturday. So while I don’t expect Saturday to be a rainy day, I do expect scattered showers to be a potential while lots of clouds are present. Improvement is still slated for Sunday, probably not a totally sunny day either but better than Saturday in both sun potential and warmth. Sunday night we’ll already be back into cloudiness from a cold front approaching from the west and that will pass through later at night with a shower threat. The question is whether or not a quick wave of low pressure comes along to enhance rainfall for a portion of Monday. Some guidance says yes, other guidance says no. For the time being, I’m splitting the difference with a wet morning and drier afternoon. But that’s day 5 so there is plenty of time to re-evaluate and tweak it.
TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain mostly morning and midday. Highs 47-54. Wind SE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Showers arriving overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 42-49. Wind SE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Cloudy with numerous showers and possible thunderstorms morning. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind in the morning SE-S 10-20 MPH gusting 25-35 MPH interior, 35-45 MPH coastal areas with spot gusts of 50-55 MPH possible South Coast and Cape Cod. Wind in the afternoon shifting to W and decreasing to 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Any lingering showers ending. Lows 42-49. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers redeveloping. Highs 53-60. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Decreasing clouds. Lows 41-48. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs ranging from near 50 Nantucket and outer Cape Cod to 65-70 interior Massachusetts and southern New Hampshire. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 48-55. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
MONDAY: Cloudy with a chance of rain morning. Variably cloudy with a chance of showers afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 5-9)
The overall outlook for this 5-day period is for below normal temperatures and a couple opportunities for wet weather.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 10-14)
A pattern of below normal temperatures is expected to continue but with a drying trend.

C-19 Chat Post – April 30 2020