Wednesday Forecast

7:25AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 21-25)
An anomalously strong ridge of high pressure will deliver one more very warm day for much of the region with several records likely falling. There was a boundary of cooler air that moved down the coast from northern New England into northeastern MA and southeastern NH, as far southwest as parts of Metro Boston overnight but it should be pushed back the other way today with a generally southwest flow taking over. This flow will keep the South Coast and Cape Cod cooler, as would be expected. But a cold front is on the way and will sweep through the region from northwest to southeast this evening, producing some rain showers, and delivering colder air. As this cold air arrives, the front will slow to a stop just south of New England and a wave of low pressure will bring an area of precipitation to the region Thursday midday and afternoon, which will be in the form of snow and sleet for parts of the region, along with some minor accumulation. This will be the beginning of a stretch of unsettled weather, with additional waves of low pressure following later Friday and again Saturday night into Sunday. These may produce some frozen or freezing precipitation mainly over interior areas, but otherwise will be largely rain producers. Forecast details…
TODAY: Low clouds and fog possible northeastern coastal MA and Seacoast NH early, and may hang along the South Coast of MA/RI/CT all day. Otherwise, partly sunny. Highs 50-59 immediate South Coast, 60-74 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers evening. Lows 35-42. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Late morning and afternoon rain southern MA, RI, CT may mix with sleet/snow before ending. Late morning and afternoon sleet/snow central MA to southern NH with a coating to 1 inch possible, perhaps over 1 inch in parts of southern NH. Temperatures steady 35-42 morning, falling to 30-35 afternoon. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Areas of black ice. Lows 20-27. Wind light N.
FRIDAY: Sunshine followed by clouds. Chance of rain which may start as snow/ice at night interior MA/NH. Highs 37-43. Wind light NE to E.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain early. Chance of rain/mix/snow night. Temperatures steady upper 30s to lower 40s then falling slightly.
SUNDAY: Cloudy with rain likely. Lows from the middle 30s to lower 40s. Highs from the upper 30s to middle 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 26-MARCH 2)
A colder trend the last few days of the month with what looks like a minor disturbance passing through with rain/snow showers late February 27. As March gets underway briefly milder with rain/mix March 1 then clearing and colder March 2. Timing uncertain so confidence is low.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 3-7)
Expecting a blocking pattern with high pressure across eastern Canada and low pressure between the Mid Atlantic and western Atlantic. This pattern will feature generally near to below normal temperatures and occasionally unsettled weather, however the main storminess may be to the south and southeast of New England in this set-up.

Tuesday Forecast

2:42AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 20-24)
Into the wedge of warmth we go for 2 days before a cold front slices through the region and puts an end to the spring preview late Wednesday. Cloudiness will prevent most areas from reaching maximum potential temperatures today, though the warmest will occur north and west of Boston, primarily north of I-90 and west of I-95, centered in the Merrimack Valley and southern NH. Temperatures come up a few notches Wednesday just ahead of the cold front, with again cloudiness and ocean-modified air keeping the South Coast and adjacent areas cooler while the warmest air is over the same areas it was today. A few showers may accompany the cold front Wednesday evening, and this front will then come to a halt just south of New England Thursday, allowing a small ripple of low pressure to move along it. Cold air will be draining in all the while and a period of precipitation, possibly in the form of snow/sleet north and rain south, is expected Thursday. This boundary is going to sit to the south with southern New England on the cooler side of it right into the coming weekend too and another round of precipitation, mainly rain that may start as some snow/ice interior, is expected Friday night and early Saturday and another area of most likely rain/mix approaching later Saturday. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 47-55 South Coast, 56-64 elsewhere, mildest north central to interior northeastern MA and adjacent southern NH. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy north. Mostly cloudy south. Lows 45-53. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny north. Mostly cloudy south. Highs 47-56 South Coast, 57-70 elsewhere, warmest valley areas northwest of Boston. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers evening. Lows 35-42. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain southern MA, RI, CT. Chance of mix/snow central MA to southern NH. Temperatures steady 35-42 morning, falling to 30-35 afternoon. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Sunshine followed by clouds. Chance of rain which may start as snow/ice at night. Lows from the upper 20s to lower 30s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain early. Chance of rain/mix/snow night. Temperatures stead upper 30s to lower 40s then falling slightly.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 25-MARCH 1)
A broad low pressure area brings a chance of rain/ice/snow February 25. Will watch the period February 26-28 for an additional disturbance moving through from northwest to east that may produce additional rain/mix/snow. Dry weather follows. Temperatures trend colder.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 2-6)
Expecting a blocking pattern with high pressure across eastern Canada and low pressure between the Mid Atlantic and western Atlantic. This pattern will feature generally near to below normal temperatures and occasionally unsettled weather, however the main storminess may be to the south and southeast of New England in this set-up.

Monday Forecast

2:25AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 19-23)
A warm front approaches today and passes tonight, opening the door to very mild weather Tuesday through the daylight hours of Wednesday. A cold front will push through the region from northwest to southeast Wednesday night and a cooler high pressure area will push toward the region from the north Thursday, although the front may hang up just south of the region with a wave of low pressure moving along it, possibly close enough to delay clearing. This frontal boundary will start moving back to the north a little bit on Friday and a wave of low pressure will approach from the west with a return to unsettled weather possible by late in the day or at night. Forecast details…
TODAY: Increasing clouds. Risk of light rain mainly west and north of Boston late day. Highs 43-50. Wind light SE.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A few periods of rain evening. Temperatures steady 43-50 then rising slightly overnight. Wind light S to SW.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 47-55 South Coast, 56-64 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-53. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers evening or night. Highs 47-56 South Coast, 57-70 elsewhere, warmest valley areas northwest of Boston. Much cooler at night. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, shifting to NW at night.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with a possible period of rain/mix then clearing late. Temperatures fall through 40s.
FRIDAY: Sunshine followed by clouds. Chance of rain which may start as snow/ice at night. Lows from the upper 20s to lower 30s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 24-28)
Unsettled weather possible during the February 24-25 weekend with a nearby boundary and areas of low pressure moving along it. Colder air from the north will probably win out with some threat of snow/ice/rain during this time. Another system may bring some light precipitation about February 27 but uncertain as this system may get pulled apart and end up much weaker or south of the region.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 1-5)
The early March pattern should be unsettled and cooler than normal as a blocking pattern sets up. Will eye the possibility of a couple storm systems, especially one later in the period.

Sunday Forecast

11:22AM

STORM SUMMARY
I would love to say the forecast for the storm worked out well, and I suppose it did, in general. But there was a big miss, and that was north central MA and southern NH which got in on the heaviest of the snow that I actually thought would have fallen further south. The expansion of the precipitation area was greater than I expected, and some hard-to-see banding took place in those areas mentioned above. Looking back, a forecast of 4-8 inches would have been better for a large portion of the region, with 1-4 inches for the South Coast region with mixing/rain involved. All in all, not too bad, but I don’t like to dwell on my performance other than learning from the mistakes, and I have taken some notes for future reference in this regard.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 18-22)
As promised, the snow that did fall will not be hanging around and is already in the process of melting. Not that it’s super warm today, only into the 40s, but that higher February sun angle does a number on the snow this time of year that hasn’t had a chance to go through a melt/freeze process. And we’re only going to see a little bit of that as we drop below freezing tonight, but tomorrow, despite losing the sunshine to an approaching warm front which eventually brings some rain, the temperature will be climbing far above freezing accelerating and nearly completing the melting process. And whatever should survive tomorrow will certainly be eradicated Tuesday as we see an even bigger temperature spike, which will peak on Wednesday as a high pressure ridge builds along the East Coast and a cold front hangs back to the north. This front will arrive by early Thursday and high pressure behind it will send a much cooler air mass into the region, ending the spring preview. Forecast details…
TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing late in the day.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-23 interior, 24-29 coast. Wind light variable.
MONDAY: Increasing cloudiness. Highs 43-50. Wind light SE.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a period of rain. Lows 40-47. Wind light S.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52 immediate South Coast ranging to 60-67 interior areas with a small 52-60 area in between. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows from the lower 40s to around 50. Highs from the upper 40s to middle 50s immediate South Coast, middle 50s to lower 60s just away from the coast, middle 60s to lower 70s interior.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a period of rain morning-midday which may end as a mix. Temperatures fall through 50s and 40s to upper 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 23-27)
Hard to time precipitation threats in what will be an active pattern but looking at the most likely days for them being during the February 24-25 weekend, and February 27. The first may start with freezing or frozen precipitation but will likely end up mainly rain. The second can be any type of precipitation and confidence is too low to be sure this far in advance.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 28-MARCH 4)
Evolution of the pattern is to below normal temperatures and will have to watch for some additional storminess. Leaning toward a blocking pattern.

Saturday Forecast

1:11AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 17-21)
High pressure dominates today with seasonably cold but dry weather, but it slides offshore and a wave of low pressure moves east northeastward very rapidly along the boundary of warm and cold air to the south of New England bringing a light to moderate snowfall tonight, which will exit by Sunday morning. Another high pressure area moves in Sunday returning sunshine to the region. This high is not of very cold origin and therefore it will be fairly mild and much of the snow that falls during Saturday night will melt during Sunday. A warm front will approach Monday with a late-day or nighttime rain risk, and then anomalous warmth will arrive Tuesday into Wednesday as high pressure builds over the southeastern US and a southwesterly air flow takes over. We’ll have to watch a cold front to the north during Wednesday as this will mark the end of that significant warm-up, but it remains to be seen if it will arrive during or after Wednesday.
TODAY: Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. Highs 30-37. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Overcast. Snow arrives southwest to northeast mid to late evening, peaks overnight, and tapers off southwest to northeast around dawn, possibly mixing with or briefly changing to rain immediate South Coast, Cape Cod and Islands. Snow accumulation of 3-6 inches expected in most areas, except 1-3 inches in southwestern NH and nearby north central MA, and 1-3 inches of wetter snow Cape Cod and Islands. A couple small areas of bands of 6 or 7 inches are possible favoring interior southeastern MA, possibly Cape Ann MA, northern RI, and northeastern CT. Lows 24-31 but to the middle 30s Cape Cod overnight. Wind S shifting to E 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Clouds Cape Cod early otherwise mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind N 10-20 MPH early shifting to W and diminishing to around 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 20-27. Wind light N.
MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain late. Highs 40-47. Wind light SE.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 40s. Highs from the 50s south-facing shores to 60s elsewhere.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows from the middle 40s to lower 50s. Highs from the middle 50s south-facing shores to 60s to near 70 interior. May turn sharply cooler north to south late day or evening.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 22-26)
May start unsettled then dry out as it cools February 22. Will have to watch the February 23-26 period for 1 or 2 threats of unsettled weather that may include frozen or freezing precipitation for parts of the region. This will be caused by a pattern that remains warm in the US Southeast but much colder in Canada placing New England in the battle zone between the two.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 27-MARCH 3)
Similar pattern, near a boundary with the cooler to colder side probably winning out, and episodes of unsettled weather which may include some frozen precipitation. During this time we will be watching the large scale pattern for a possible transition to a blocking set-up.

Friday Forecast

9:28AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 16-20)
2 cold fronts will push through the region, one this morning, and one this evening. Areas of rain showers will be around ahead of and along the first front, and a rain or snow shower may accompany the second one in a few locations. The second front will mark the arrival of modified arctic air which will become established through Saturday, setting the stage for a winter precipitation event Saturday night as a developing wave of low pressure exits the northern Mid Atlantic and passes just south of New England. This will be a quick event with light to borderline moderate snowfall amounts and the chance of some rain near the South Coast, and will be out of here by early Sunday. A warm-up will follow this as a ridge of high pressure builds across the southeastern US through early next week. A surface warm front has to come through here later Monday and this may be accompanied by cloudiness and some rainfall, but by Tuesday we should see a preview of spring.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous rain showers and areas of fog morning. Isolated late-day rain showers except rain or snow showers southern NH and far northern MA. Highs 45-52 in the morning, cooling through the 40s afternoon. Wind W 5-15 MPH morning, NW 10-20 MPH afternoon.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. Highs 28-35. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow arrives southwest to northeast late evening, peaks overnight, and tapers off southwest to northeast around dawn, except mixing with or changing to rain along the immediate South Coast. Snow accumulation of 2-5 inches expected in most areas, except 1-3 inches in southwestern NH and nearby north central MA, and 1-2 inches of wetter snow MA South Shore through South Coast and less than 1 inch Nantucket. Lows 24-31 but rising to 32-38 South Shore of MA and South Coast. Wind S shifting to E 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with a risk of lingering snow except mix/rain South Coast early, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 38-45. Wind N 10-20 MPH early shifting to W and diminishing to around 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain late. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 40s.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers late. Lows in the 40s. Highs from the middle 50s to lower 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 21-25)
Upper air pattern supports warmth but surface pattern may send a cold front southward to cut off what would otherwise by an anomalously warm day February 21. Will keep an eye on it. Episodes of unsettled weather with a cooler to colder trend thereafter. Cannot rule out some mix/snow.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 26-MARCH 2)
Similar pattern, near a boundary with the cooler to colder side probably winning out, and episodes of unsettled weather which may include some frozen precipitation.

Thursday Forecast

2:28AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 15-19)
In the warm sector today with enough moisture for a rain shower risk mainly this morning and clouds being dominant for much of the day. Amount of sun determines whether or not anyone reaches 60, including if Boston’s record high of 61 is challenged. Two cold fronts come through Friday, one early preceded by rain, one late accompanied by a rain or snow shower, then much colder air arrives at night through Saturday. Will continue to watch a largely open wave of low pressure coming along and passing south of the region Saturday night and early Sunday. The impact remains in question, but still watching for a threat of a period of snow Saturday night. Odds favor this being a fairly minor event, but moderate amounts remain a scenario on the table so will continue to watch and hold off on solid numbers until next blog, if they become necessary. This system is embedded in an overall mild upper pattern so behind it we’ll observe an immediate moderation in temperature for the remainder of Presidents Day Weekend.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of rain showers early. Highs 45-52 coast, 52-58 interior. Wind light S.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely late evening on. Lows 43-49. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain showers early, then sun and passing clouds. A brief rain or snow shower possible late-day. Highs 45-52 morning, then cooling through the 40s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W and increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 13-20 Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 10 at times.
SATURDAY: Sun and high clouds day. Cloudy with a chance of snow at night with potential light to moderate accumulation. Highs 31-37. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY: Cloudy with a chance of snow early, then clearing and breezy. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s.
MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Lows from the upper 20s to lower 30s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 20-24)
Starting with much above normal temperatures followed by a trend toward more normal by the end of the period. Episodes of unsettled weather possible favoring rain showers through mid period and any type of precipitation later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 25-MARCH 1)
Colder trend. A couple mix/snow events are possible.

Wednesday Forecast

8:26AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 14-18)
High pressure moves offshore today and temperatures moderate. A warm front will bring a period of rain to the region late tonight into early Thursday and lead even warmer weather into the region for Thursday. The degree of warmth will be somewhat dependent on how much sun breaks out during the day. For now, leaning toward more dominant cloudiness and temperatures remaining under 60. The last time Boston hit 60 or greater was January 13 when it hit 61, which is also the record high temperature for Thursday set back in 1939. I think that record will stand. Cold front will come through early Friday preceded by a period of rain showers. A second cold front will come through Thursday evening, and may be accompanied by a rain or snow shower, but more notably will usher in a cold air mass for Saturday. This will set the stage for a chance of snow except snow or rain South Coast as a wave of low pressure passes just south of the region Saturday night and early Sunday. Although the details are still being worked out, this system has the potential to bring a light to moderate snowfall to at least a portion of the region during the middle of the weekend before conditions improve and temperatures moderate just behind the system.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy through mid morning, then clearing. Highs 45-52. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear evening, then increasing cloudiness. Lows 32-38. Wind SW under 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of rain showers early. Highs 53-59. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely late evening on. Lows 43-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain showers early, then sun and passing clouds. A brief rain or snow shower possible at night. Highs 45-52 morning, then cooling through the 40s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W and increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Sun and high clouds day. Cloudy with a chance of snow at night. Lows from the middle 10s to lower 20s. Highs in the 30s.
SUNDAY: Cloudy with a chance of snow early, then clearing and breezy. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 19-23)
After the brief winter interlude of early to mid weekend the Presidents Day holiday on Monday will be milder but with a late-day rain risk. Tuesday-Thursday February 20-22 a frontal boundary will be nearby, dividing very mild air induced by a ridge of high pressure over the southeastern US from colder air banked across Canada. The position of the boundary will determine the details, so for now calling for the mild air to win at first, then the colder air, with episodes of unsettled weather. Drier/colder by the end of the period if things trend the way they are expected to.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 24-28)
The trend looks a little colder but there will still be somewhat of a battled between cold north and mild south. Additional unsettled weather including the possible threat of a winter weather event during the final days of the month.

Tuesday Forecast

8:12AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 13-17)
High pressure moves overhead today, with fair and seasonably chilly weather, then offshore Wednesday. A midweek warmup will start with dry weather on Wednesday but then a batch of wet weather will come through early Thursday with a warm front. A cold front will follow this on Friday with additional unsettled weather. The warm-up peaks Thursday and ends Friday. Saturday’s weather will resemble today’s as a cold high pressure area from Canada moves in.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny through mid afternoon then increasing clouds late. Highs 30-37. Wind N 5-15 MPH becoming light variable.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind light variable becoming S up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs from the 43-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely overnight. Lows 38-45 early then slowly rising. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers early. Highs 53-60. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely morning. Partly cloudy and windy afternoon. Temperatures fall through the 40s.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 10s to middle 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 18-22)
Large scale pattern: Stronger high pressure ridge US Southeast, cold air in Canada. Temperatures which start chilly at the very start of the period then moderate and end up above normal, but how far above normal is the question. The other question is, do we end the cold shot with a period of accumulating snow in the early hours of Sunday February 18? There is enough evidence on fairly reliable guidance to make me say we need to closely watch this possibility. Weather in the February 20-22 period can range from fair and very mild to overcast and damp. Will just have to see where the boundary ends up and fine-tune going forward.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 23-27)
For this period not expecting any major changes, so the confidence level for any strong trend is not high at this time. Leaning mild, and completely unsure of storminess. A puzzle yet to solve.

Monday Forecast

8:54AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 12-16)
A cold front has moved offshore but moisture riding up the back side of this front is keeping some cloudiness over the region and some rain shower activity near the South Coast to start the day. A drying trend will eliminate the showers and eventually the cloudiness later today. High pressure moves across the region Tuesday with fair and seasonably chilly weather. The high will move offshore Wednesday allowing a warm up but also more cloudiness in response to warming of the air above us as well. We’ll be fully in the warm sector by Thursday but a disturbance will bring rain showers to start the day. Another cold front will move through on Friday, sending temperatures downward again. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy morning including some rain showers near the South Coast. Clearing afternoon. Highs 38-45 central and northeastern MA through southern NH, 45-52 southeastern MA, RI, and eastern CT. Gradually falling temperatures this afternoon. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny through mid afternoon then increasing clouds late. Highs 30-37. Wind N 5-15 MPH becoming light varaible.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind light variable becoming S up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs from the 43-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers early. Lows from the upper 30s to lower 40s. Highs in the 50s.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely morning. Partly cloudy and windy afternoon. Temperatures fall through the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 17-21)
Large scale pattern will feature building high pressure over the US Southeast. Brief shot of cold air comes out of Canada as surface high pressure moves in early in the period for fair and colder weather then a moderating trend during the weekend of February 17-18 then returning moisture and low pressure tracking north of the region February 19 (Presidents Day) may bring some rain showers to the region. Current thinking is fair but very mild weather later in the period as colder air is stuck up in Canada due to the Southeast ridge.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 22-26)
Some up and down temps but the overall pattern should be milder than average with no major storminess as it looks now, as a result of the Southeast ridge being strong enough to keep colder air in Canada from becoming dominant.

Sunday Forecast

12:09PM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 11-15)
A frontal boundary sits over southern New England allowing a couple waves of low pressure to move up along it today, resulting in wet weather. Enough cold air has been trapped in the valleys of southwestern NH and nearby north central MA for pockets of freezing rain. The final wave will pull the front north slightly and allow a wedge of warmth into southeastern areas later today and early this evening before it passes and pulls the front eastward as a cold front overnight. The weather will try to get a little dramatic with a significant temperature rise and then a band of heavier showers and possible thunderstorms accompanying the final frontal passage. After this, it settles down overnight and the first couple days of the week will be on the quiet, cooler side as high pressure builds across the Great Lakes Monday then into New England Tuesday. This high will slip offshore by the middle of the week when we begin to turn milder but with a little more cloudiness as a couple disturbances move along a frontal boundary to the north of the region. Forecast details…
TODAY: Overcast. Areas of fog. Periods of rain with embedded moderate to heavy showers. Pockets of freezing rain through early afternoon valleys of north central MA and southern NH. Highs 35-43 central MA and southern NH, 44-52 eastern MA and RI occurring late-day. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy through midnight with frequent rain showers and a risk of thunderstorms, especially RI and southeastern MA. Breaking clouds overnight. Areas of fog. Temperatures rising to 45-52 central MA and southern NH, 52-60 eastern MA and RI evening. Overnight lows 35-42. Wind S 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod briefly, shifting to SW and diminishing.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy morning. Partly cloudy afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows from the middle to upper 20s. Highs from the middle to upper 40s.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of rain showers. Lows from the upper 30s to lower 40s. Highs from the upper 40s to middle 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 16-20)
Cold front moves through Friday February 16 with rain to snow showers and turning windy with falling temperatures. Fair and cold Saturday-Sunday February 17-18. Milder with a risk of rain showers Presidents Day Monday February 19, may end as snow showers Tuesday February 20 as colder air returns.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 21-25)
Some up and down temps but the overall pattern should be milder than average with no major storminess as it looks now, as a result of the Southeast ridge being strong enough to keep colder air in Canada from becoming dominant.

Saturday Forecast

7:44AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 10-14)
A warm front passed by overnight, has become stationary to the north of the region, and will sink back to the south as a cold front through Sunday while a couple waves of low pressure move up along it, resulting in a rainy Saturday night and Sunday. High pressure moves in Monday into early Tuesday with dry weather. A disturbance will bring a risk of some light snow/mix Tuesday night, possibly causing slippery ground for your last minute Mardi Gras celebrations, followed by fair but milder weather for Wednesday, which is also Valentine’s Day for those who have fun with that and Ash Wednesday for those who observe Lent. But no matter what you observe, read on to observe forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy. Isolated to scattered rain showers. Highs 45-52. Wind S under 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Lows 38-45. Wind S under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain, some possibly heavy. Highs 40-47. Wind variable under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain ending. Areas of fog. Lows 35-42. Wind variable to W under 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy morning. Partly cloudy afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of light snow/mix at night. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows from the upper 20s to lower 30s. Highs from the middle 40s to lower 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 15-19)
Mild February 15 with late-day rain shower and night time snow shower as strong cold front arrives resulting in a windy/colder February 16. Been watching the period around the Presidents Day Weekend for a possible winter weather event but all current indications are for fair/cold start, milder and unsettled finish but no major storminess.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 20-24)
A Southeast US ridge and cold Canada pattern will continue but for now giving more weight to the ridge more dominant with no major sustained cold here and only minor precipitation events.

Friday Forecast

7:05AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 9-13)
A warm front will approach southern New England today and tonight, first spreading cloudiness into the region, then some light snow is possible with the best chance for this in the northern half of MA northward during this evening and tonight. The front will be north of the region Saturday then slowly slip southward again as a cold front during Sunday while a couple waves of low pressure ridge up along it. By then the atmosphere will have warmed plenty so that we have a rain threat, and that rain will become more likely as moisture increases. Drier air should kick the rain chance out of here Monday as high pressure tries to build down from the north though it may not clear out much, and another disturbance may send a little additional precipitation into slightly colder air by Tuesday. Detailed forecast…
TODAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind W under 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. A period of light snow with a coating to 1 inch possible, mainly northern MA and southern NH. Lows 22-28. Wind light S.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of light snow or freezing drizzle north central MA and southern NH early, then a chance of rain showers. Highs 43-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely. Lows 38-45. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Temperatures steady 38-45. Wind variable to N 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows from the upper 20s to lower 30s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Light mix possible. Lows from the upper 20s to lower 30s. Highs from the middle 30s to near 40.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 14-18)
Large scale pattern will feature a southeastern US ridge of high pressure and plenty of cold in Canada. Not seeing any strong mechanism to bring the cold fully in other than a piece of it during the second half of the period after a mild beginning. A minor precipitation event (favoring rain over snow) is possible around February 15-16 during this transition.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 19-23)
Not a strong feel for the overall pattern but not expecting any major changes to the pattern of mid February at this point.

When The Notebook Page Storm Actually Happened – The Blizzard of 1978

Somewhere around my third year in school I had seen enough weather maps to understand what it looked like when we had a big snowstorm. Then it started, the doodles – on scrap paper, on the back of the homework sheet, in the notebook margins. This was a habit that would stay with me for years before I broke it. Who am I kidding? I still do it sometimes!

As we just observed the 40th anniversary of the snowstorm that still remains the granddaddy of them all for this particular area for its combination of snow, wind, duration, and coastal devastation, I present you with this look back at what things were like from my perspective as a 10 year old weather nut.

After the wild month of January, which you read about on my previous special blog, the area settled into an arctic lull as the weather became very cold but quiet, with no storms of note after the January 26 rain/wind event. I remember the first couple days of February having a fair amount of clouds as I noted in my weather diary, and extreme cold temperatures in the single numbers and teens. This cold continued on, and the few of us that saw Harvey Leonard’s Saturday evening weather forecast on TV were clued into the possibility of a big storm coming. This was coming at a time where meteorologists had very little reliable computer guidance and on top of that a new model had just come online and was actually predicting a large storm. This was ignored by many forecasters thinking it was a glitch of some kind in the new model. Of course I knew nothing of this back then. These facts I would find out years later. What was standing out to me was the slate grey overcast sky in the late afternoon of Sunday February 5 1978. I could just feel something in the air. I remember taking a ride with my father in his Datsun across to the other side of Woburn for some errand he had to do. Back then he would always have a local news station on, WEEI-AM. And a 10-year-old thinks that a news station on the radio is boring. And not only that, they never forecast enough snow. And I made it known to my dad too, after hearing the announcer read a forecast that called for 1 to 2 inches of snow for Monday. “They always say 1-2 inches! Is that the only thing they know how to say?” Oh I felt so powerful, criticizing my dad’s favorite radio station. What a rebel! In my straight ahead staring sneer I think I caught a glimpse of my father smirking. He didn’t mind me mocking his favorite station. He liked their forecast. Dad was not a fan of big snowstorms.

I walked to school and into my 5th grade classroom on the morning of Monday February 6 under the same kind of overcast from the day before, but this time the calm had been replaced by a bitter breeze blowing in from the northeast. It was that wind my brother told me always told you that a snowstorm was coming. At some point during the day one of my classmates said “we’re gonna get killed with snow!” obviously remembering the blockbuster snowstorm we had just 2 1/2 weeks earlier on January 20. I decided to play it cool to him and my reply was “there is no way we can get a storm bigger than that one”. Kiss of death on a forecast, had I actually made one that day. But I remember having this feeling .. a feeling that something big was brewing. By late morning the snowflakes were flying. It didn’t start piling up much the first few hours here in Woburn, and we got to the end of school just fine, but when I left for my short walk home, it is the only time I can remember seeing powdery snow blowing along the ground in curling and swirling lines like you may see along a highway, or observe with find sand blowing across packed down sand on the beach. The wind out of the northeast was steady somewhere around 20-25 MPH and was already gusting higher. It was not long after I got home that day, greeted by the brother that got me interested in weather, and his exclamation that we were in for it, that the snowstorm cranked up, and then it was on…

The next several hours almost seemed like a blur. Night fell, the storm’s intensity grew. I had no idea what would be unfolding along our coastline. I had no clue yet that there were thousands of people stranded on Route 128 and other roads. I was not yet aware of the misfortune that others would suffer because of this storm. When I did learn of it, I learned a lesson early that even though I am awed by big events, there is a human side to it all, and sometimes bad things can happen. This has always kept it in perspective. But on this Monday evening in 1978, I was watching an awesome snowstorm out my window. The wind gusts were shaking the large house. There were moments it was almost scary, but awe overcomes fear often with me when it comes to weather, and that was already well-established when I was nearing the end of my first decade of life. I don’t know what time I went to bed that night, or if I even slept much. The next morning, Tuesday February 7, it started to sink in just what was going on. We still had 12 hours of snow left to fall before it would finally taper off, but we already had a whole lot and the wind-built drifts were massive, larger than any I had seen up to that point. I don’t recall which door my parents, brothers, and I ended up getting out, but I do know that exiting the house was only accomplished with digging our way out. I was probably looking out a window on the other side of the house while one of my older brothers undertook that task. But in a while we were all out there, dressed for winter’s worst. I guess the idea was to start shoveling the driveway because even though the storm was far from done, just getting something started would be better than nothing. At some point late in the afternoon when there was a little lull in the snow, we were standing in the middle of the main road, which was absent of traffic other than an occasional plow, larger front end loader, or police car. There were already people pulling sleds full of groceries by, as there were a few local stores that were able to be open for the duration of the event. I remember them stopping to chat. We didn’t know them and they didn’t know us, but we had something very much in common. This was just a small example of the type of thing that would become common in the days ahead. I don’t remember much about the evening other than snow, wind, snow, wind, more snow, more wind, a lull, then a pick-up. I remember my brother saying that we still would get several more inches before it finally ended and that in order to measure what fell, his plan was to tape 2 yard sticks together and trudge to the local high school under 1/2 mile away in his snow shoes, which were ironically Christmas gifts weeks before…

I woke up on Wednesday February 8 as the sun was emerging from behind a retreating cloud deck in the eastern sky. The snow had ended overnight and the storm had finished its fun with New England and was heading seaward. What was left behind here was something I will never forget. The shoveling head start proved a good move, and though there was still more drifting and much more snow to remove from areas that had been cleaned, the job was lessened somewhat. It still look the better part of that day, and I didn’t have to do it. Ah the joys of being 10 and having 4 older brothers and parents that had no problem getting into the dirty work. I think much of my day was spent attempting to climb the giant snowbanks where any plowing had been done. The side street I live next to had not been plowed yet and would not for a couple days. All of the cars in the neighborhood were unseen other than the radio antenna sticking out of the snow in some driveways. There was a spot in front of my garage that was blown bare by the wind, before any shoveling had been done. Near it sat a drift nearly 8 feet deep. A neighbor’s house had its second floor windows on the south side covered by a snow drift that blew itself even with the slope of the roof. That may have been the most amazing thing I have ever seen with regards to snow and drifting from a storm. The dig-out continued and by day’s end the snow banks in front of the house were high enough that if one climbed to the top, they could see into the 2nd floor windows of the house, or reach up, if one dared, to the wires between utility poles. A short distance up the street my cousin, brother, and friends began work on a snow fort that, when done a day or so later, would have 2 floors, an open 2nd floor, and a closed first floor much like an igloo, with a piece of plywood placed between the 2 floors, and a real window, as there was a small one sitting in either my father’s or uncle’s work room and it was borrowed for the purpose. This fort was reinforced with ice created by spraying and pouring water over the packed snow and allowing it to freeze. Little did they know at the time that this fort would last until sometime in March. One of the most memorable scenes on the day after the storm, with bright sun shining, a driveway cleared to pavement, a snow bank of nearly 20 feet next to it, was the row of lawn and beach chairs my brothers and cousins took out and when they came out dressed as if they were going to the beach to lounge in the chairs. A photo exists of this somewhere, and when I find it, I intend to share it with you all.

The first 4 days after the storm, the 8th, described above, and the 3 days that followed it, were all mainly sunny and tranquil days, not too cold, but just seasonable feeling. It was about as good as we could have it to allow for the massive cleanup needed, but even with the idea conditions, the amount of snow in this area was so incredible (brother’s measurement was over 3 feet) along with the drifting, it was just going to take a really long time. School was canceled “until further notice” or to be evaluated on a day-to-day basis. There was talk about canceling February vacation, but those plans were scrapped since many families had travel plans in place already. As it turned out, February 6 would be the last day of school until exactly 3 weeks later. We returned on Monday February 27. In addition, in a move that would never be done these days, the 180 day rule was waived and we did not have to make up any of the lost days at the end of the year. This was more than exciting to a 10 year old who loved having the 3 weeks off and the promise of a fairly early beginning to the summer ahead! And isn’t it ironic that some of the massive snow piles created in the cleanup from the major storms of the winter would still be sitting, far smaller, but still there, in corners of lots when school did come to an end in June.

I realize that this epic storm was not a joyous occasion for the majority of folks impacted by it, but my memories of it are positive and will last me a lifetime. I’ll never forget that I was one of the lucky ones, even if I didn’t understand it then. There are other events on the list of those that made me want to learn how to forecast weather, but this one was the most influential of them all.

Thursday Forecast

7:44AM

CAUTION! VERY ICY GROUND IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS MORNING! Untreated surfaces and surfaces that don’t get direct sun will remain icy all day and into Friday as well. Be careful when traveling!

Blizzard of 1978 blog is nearly done and will be posted later today.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 8-12)
Quiet and cold today but the icy ground is the big issue. A stretch of unsettled weather arrives during Friday as a warm front approaches. This front gets north of the region Saturday then tries to sink southward Sunday but not sure how far it will go just yet. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 10-15 interior, 15-20 coast. Wind light W.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind light W.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of light snow accumulating a coating to 1 inch. Lows 22-28. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow or freezing drizzle early, then a chance of light rain. Highs 35-42. Wind light variable becoming S up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Temperatures in the 40s but may fall into the 30s some northern areas.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows from the upper 20s to lower 30s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 13-17)
A couple periods of unsettled weather but no major storms, and on the milder side of normal for temperatures during this period. The very end of the period may turn colder with a snow threat.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 18-22)
A bit colder. May have a snow/mix threat early in the period.

Your no-hype southeastern New England weather blog!