7:13AM

KING TIDES…
I’m a little behind with this having not been feeling well, but I wanted to address the ongoing King Tides, which are actually ending after today for this cycle, though will repeat again during the November 14-17 period during the next full moon. The King Tides are the highest tides of the year resulting from an alignment of the Earth, Moon, and Sun. The King Tides this year are also coming at a time when the moon as at its closest to Earth in 48 years, making them even more impressive. These tides run around 2 feet above the normal high tide, and will result in coastal flooding even in tranquil weather. The November King Tides will be slightly higher than these October ones. Hopefully they will not coincide with storminess, especially moderate or strong onshore wind.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 19-23)…
The warm front that was expected to be slow getting through eastern MA and southeastern NH on Tuesday was even slower than expected, not clearing the entire region until early at night. Many of these areas experienced their highest temperatures of the day well after sunset. And now a weak cold front will slide southward with some clouds early today, though even behind this front it will still be quite warm. It will take until Thursday to be somewhat cooler as the wind turns more to the northeast, but by that time the front will already be making a come-back as a warm front and bring cloudiness and a chance of rain showers by later Thursday. Another cold front will approach from the west on Friday, and ahead of it some tropical moisture from a system to the south may get drawn northward, bringing the chance of some significant rain to the region. I’m not 100% sold on this idea yet, but will monitor it. The front itself should produce some decent rain showers Friday night. By the weekend, we’ll be in a drier, much cooler air mass, with moderate to at times strong and gusty northwest wind, and it will feel quite seasonably chilly.
TODAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs 74-82. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 48-56. Wind light W becoming variable.
THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain showers by mid to late afternoon. Highs 60-68. Wind light NE.
FRIDAY: Mainly cloudy. Episodes of rain likely. Lows 50-58. Highs 60-68.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Windy. Lows 42-50. Highs 57-64.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Windy. Lows 35-43. Highs 54-61.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 24-28)…
Risk of light rain October 24. Windy, cool, dry October 25. Fair with moderating temperatures October 26-28.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 29-NOVEMBER 2)…
The pattern may turn a little more unsettled during this time.

7:32AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 18-22)…
Warm front lifts through the region this morning and introduces weather that will remind you of summer with warmth and some humidity. Weak cold front drops through in the early hours of Wednesday with a few showers, and it dries the air out a little but doesn’t cool it much of Wednesday, which will still have a bit of a summer feel. More legitimate cool air sinks in Thursday from the Canadian Maritimes, but the front will try to make a come back as a warm front later Thursday into Friday but the parent low pressure will start to combine with offshore low pressure and send a more significant area of rain into the region during Friday. All of this should move offshore Friday night and set up a drier, windy, cooler Saturday.
TODAY: Clouds dominate early along with a few isolated showers, then sun appearing from south to north later morning through afternoon. Last place to see sun northeastern MA and NH Seacoast. Highs 75-82. Wind light E shifting to SW then increasing to 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly to variably cloudy. Risk of a few rain showers overnight. Lows 53-60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. PM rain showers. Lows 52-60. Highs 60-68.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain likely. Lows 48-55. Highs 58-66.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Windy. Lows 40-48. Highs 56-64.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 23-27)…
Mainly dry weather. Temperatures near to below normal early period, moderating later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 28-NOVEMBER 1)…
A couple opportunities for rain showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

7:19AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 17-21)…
A weak cold front sits nearby today then lifts back to the north as a warm front by early Tuesday. This allows significant warmth through Wednesday. Another front will cool it down by Thursday. Late in the week 2 low pressure areas will make a pass through the region, bringing some unsettled weather Friday, but they won’t really get together until beyond the region.
TODAY: Sun and some clouds. Highs 68-76. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Clouds increase. Possible rain showers. Lows 52-60. Wind light S.
TUESDAY: Clouds dominate early, then more sun. Highs 75-82. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 53-60. Highs 73-80, cooler some coastal areas.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 52-60. Highs 60-68.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows 48-55. Highs 58-66.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 22-26)…
Mainly dry weather, variable temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 27-31)…
Brief rain shower risk around mid period otherwise mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

10:40AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 16-20)…
No major changes. Will add thoughts in comments below. Just a forecast update for now.
TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 62-70. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers overnight. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 64-73. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-58. Highs 73-84, warmest interior valleys.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-58. Highs 72-82, warmest interior valleys.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-58. Highs 60-68.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 21-25)…
Cooling temperatures but still mainly above normal, also a more unsettled period of weather with rain most likely October 21 and 24 based on current timing.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 26-30)…
A few episodes of rain showers, but mainly dry and mild overall.

10:56AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 15-19)…
High pressure brings a great October weekend, starting cool, ending much milder. Much warmer weather the first half of next week. Disturbances may bring a few showers late Sunday night and again Monday night, otherwise mainly dry weather is expected.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind light N morning, light SE afternoon.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 30-44, coolest interior valleys. Wind light variable to S.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 62-70. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of rain showers early morning and again at night. Lows 47-55. Highs 64-73.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-56. Highs 72-80.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-58. Highs 70-78.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 20-24)…
Cooling temperatures but still mainly above normal, also a more unsettled period of weather but hard to time rain threats.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 25-29)…
A few episodes of rain showers, but mainly dry and mild overall.

7:21AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 14-18)…
High pressure builds in today and holds through the weekend, with gusty and cool weather today, calmer weather with a cold start (frost and freeze common away from the coast) Saturday and a pleasant finish, and a mild Sunday. A disturbance may bring a few showers Monday and Tuesday should be fair again.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 27-40, coldest interior valleys. Wind N diminishing to under 10 MPH interior, 5-15 MPH coast.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind light N morning, light SE afternoon.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 30-44, coolest interior valleys. Highs 59-66.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of rain showers. Lows 40-48. Highs 60-68.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-50. Highs 64-72.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 19-23)…
Fair, very mild October 19. A few showers possible then drier and cooler October 20. Unsettled weather possible at some point October 21-22 then fair at the end of the period. Temperatures average above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 24-28)…
A few episodes of rain showers, but mainly dry and mild overall.

7:24AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 13-17)…
No big changes to the forecast. Cold front approaches today and passes this evening with some cloudiness and no more than a few showers. High pressure then builds in during Friday and over the weekend with fair weather, starting cool and ending milder. A weakening system may bring some cloudiness Monday, but any showers may be scarce.
TODAY: Clouds dominate. Partial sun at times. Highs 64-72. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mainly cloudy evening with a few rain showers. Clearing overnight. Lows 43-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH and gusty shifting to NW.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 32-41. Highs 57-64.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 30-44, coolest interior valleys. Highs 59-66.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 40-48. Highs 60-68.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 18-22)…
Rain shower risk followed by mainly dry with variable temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 23-27)…
Temperatures variable but averaging above normal, with a fairly dry pattern expected.

7:17AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 12-16)…
Warm front passes the region early today, and a cold front waits until Thursday evening to pass through from west to east. Between the two, we’ll be in a milder airmass, and you’ll even feel a bit of October humidity on Thursday, prior to the arrival of the cold front. This front will be moisture-starved, so don’t expected any beneficial rain, rather just a few possible light showers. Behind the front comes cooler weather for Friday and the weekend.
TODAY: Early high clouds give way to sun. Highs 60-68. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Developing clouds overnight. Lows 50-58. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Clouds dominate the morning. Sun and clouds in the afternoon. More clouds and a risk of rain showers in the evening. Highs 64-72. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 38-45. Highs 57-64.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 32-41. Highs 57-64.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 30-44, coolest interior valleys. Highs 59-66.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 17-21)…
Fair with a milder trend early in the period. Brief rain risk followed by a shot of much cooler air mid to late period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 22-26)…
Temperatures variable but averaging above normal, with a fairly dry pattern as we head for late October.

7:24AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 11-15)…
High pressure dominates today and Wednesday with fair weather. A warm front will sneak quietly through tonight and early Wednesday, with a noticeably milder afternoon resulting after a cool day today. A cold front will follow later Thursday, and after another mild day, a few showers may pass by at night, leading to a drier/cooler Friday-Saturday.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind N 5-15 MPH morning, light SE afternoon.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 38-47. Wind light SE to S.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 60-68. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of evening rain showers. . Lows 42-50. Highs 62-70.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 38-45. Highs 57-64.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 32-41. Highs 57-64.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 16-20)…
Fair with a milder trend early in the period. Brief rain risk followed by a shot of much cooler air mid to late period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 21-25)…
Return to mainly dry/mild weather expected.

7:34AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 10-14)…
The dry pattern has returned. Some up and down temperatures this week, starting and ending cool. Cold front is the only real “weather system” coming through later Thursday but probably with just cloudiness and no rainfall.
TODAY – COLUMBUS DAY: Sun / passing clouds. Highs 56-63. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 32-44, coldest interior valleys and mildest urban centers and coastline. Wind light N.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind N 5-15 MPH morning, light variable afternoon.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 38-47. Highs 60-68.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 42-50. Highs 62-70.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 38-45. Highs 57-64.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 15-19)…
Fair weather much of the period. Temperatures variable but averaging near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 20-24)…
Overall pattern remains dry and mild.

7:36AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 9-13)…
Slow moving cold front moving across the region and just offshore today grabs some of the moisture from former Hurricane Matthew and brings some rain to the region. Drier air moves in tonight and stays around into next week.
SUNDAY: Cloudy with rain likely. Highs 54-61. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
MONDAY – COLUMBUS DAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Highs 60-67.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 40-47. Highs 62-70.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of rain showers late. Lows 42-50. Highs 62-70.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 14-18)…
Fair, cooler October 14-15. Fair, milder October 16-17. Risk of rain showers by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 19-23)…
Generally dry and mild pattern expected to continue.

11:30AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 8-12)…
Slow moving cold front moves across the region tonight and Sunday morning. This front will produce a few showers and may even tap some moisture from Hurricane Matthew, but not enough to bring widespread beneficial rain into the region. High pressure builds into the region Monday-Wednesday with fair weather.
TODAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 65-72. Wind light S.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Scattered rain showers arriving. Lows 53-60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Cloudy morning and midday with scattered rain showers. Partial clearing afternoon. High 60-67. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
MONDAY – COLUMBUS DAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Highs 60-67.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 40-47. Highs 62-70.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 13-17)…
Risk of rain showers October 13 followed by fair and cooler weather October 14-15 then fair and milder weather October 16-17.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 18-22)…
Generally dry and mild pattern expected.

7:32AM

HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION…
See yesterday’s discussion. That is, no change to thinking on this one. More in the comments below during the day.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 7-11)…
High pressure will control the weather through early Saturday with fair and milder weather. A cold front brings a chance of rain showers late Saturday night into Sunday morning, then fair, cooler and drier weather returns for the remainder of the holiday weekend including Columbus Day Monday. Fair weather continues Tuesday as well.
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 65-72 South Coast, 72-77 elsewhere. Wind light S to SW.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 48-56. Wind light SE to S.
SATURDAY: Sunny start. Cloudy finish. Rain showers at night. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Cloudy start. Rain showers early. Mostly sunny midday and afternoon. Breezy. Lows 50-58. Highs 58-66.
MONDAY – COLUMBUS DAY: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Lows 38-45. Highs 58-65.
TUESDAY: Sunny. Lows 38-45. Highs 60-68.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 12-16)…
Mainly dry and a warm up to start the period. A few mid period rain showers then fair and a little cooler to end the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 17-21)…
A couple rain shower episodes and variable temperatures, but averaging near to above normal.

7:30AM

HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION…
My concern was the slow movement changing the game since it became apparent that the hurricane would be left behind by what could have moved it a lot more quickly to a position southeast of New England. And even though it remains to be seen if the hurricane does a complete loop after this run at (or along) the coast, it may still end up eventually passing far southeast of New England. The future track carries much uncertainty, so let’s back up and deal with the much more pressing immediate future, and that’s what I will focus on here.

For the last couple days, I have been cautiously optimistic that as dangerous as this hurricane is and will be, that the absolute worst-case scenario may be avoided. How that happens I will explain in a moment, but let me preface that with saying that absolutely everybody along the coast and nearby inland areas of Florida’s eastern coast up through Georgia, South Carolina, and at least southern parts of North Carolina should be prepared for the worst. Nature has the final say, so be ready, just in case.

I still feel that there is a chance that the core of Matthew may remain JUST offshore for much of, if not all of its trip by FL, GA, SC, and NC. That does not mean a total escape by any means. We’re still going to see powerful and damaging winds especially just ahead of the closest approach of the center, along with storm surge and very heavy surf. But if the center of the storm is just offshore, the core of strongest sustained winds, just northeast and east of the center, will remain over water. That would be good news. Also, rainfall amounts of 3-6 inches and locally 6-10 inches would be common, but the core of 10+ inch rains would also remain just offshore. Since the hurricane is still a warm core system and not transitioning, we will not yet see the heaviest rain set up west of the center, as it would during a transition to post-tropical. That would also be good news for Florida and probably Georgia. The worst flooding may occur in eastern South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina due to the angle of the coast and the already saturated ground due to a very wet September and recent heavy rainfall. Another point I wanted to make is that the center being just offshore would not necessarily mean it would continue to strengthen. Nearly half of the circulation would be over land and that would at least keep the intensity somewhat steady but may initiate some slow weakening.

I realize that only a matter of tens of miles will change my forecast scenario to a worst-case. Such a fine line here. Let’s hope for the best for all of the people there. Will update thoughts in the comments below. Now on to the southern New England weather below…

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 6-10)…
High pressure will control the weather through early Saturday with fair weather and a warming trend. Now that Matthew is not in the picture through the weekend, all we can expect is some The only unsettled weather in the forecast through the holiday weekend are some rain showers Saturday night and Sunday morning with the passage of a cold front.
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 65-73, coolest coast. Wind light SE.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 42-47 valleys, 47-54 elsewhere. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 65-72 South Coast, 72-77 elsewhere. Wind light S to SW.
SATURDAY: Sunny start. Cloudy finish. Rain showers at night. Lows 50-58. Highs 68-75.
SUNDAY: Cloudy start. Rain showers early. Mostly sunny midday and afternoon. Breezy. Lows 50-58. Highs 58-66.
MONDAY – COLUMBUS DAY: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Lows 38-45. Highs 58-65.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 11-15)…
Mainly dry and a warm up to start the period. A few mid period rain showers then fair and a little cooler to end the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 16-20)…
A couple rain shower episodes and variable temperatures, but averaging near to above normal.

3:58PM

A lot changed in the last 24 hours, especially regarding the future of Hurricane Matthew. We knew this was possible and had been cautioning it. I first dismissed a run of a model that decided Matthew was more likely to do an anticyclonic loop off the US Southeast Coast instead of heading northeastward after its close pass to or just onto the coasts of Florida and/or the Carolinas. Now there is more evidence that this loop will take place, and the ultimate destiny still appears to be well south of New England, just much later than originally expected. But that’s weather. We forecast it. We update the forecasts. Sometimes we know sooner. Sometimes we can’t know until it’s almost too late to matter. What we do know is that there will be some significant impact on the eastern coast of Florida up through the Carolinas in the next few days, regardless if the center comes ashore or not. More about Matthew below and expanded thoughts will follow in the comments while this post is up and of course with the updated post tomorrow. And my apologies for the very late post today!

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 5-9)…
High pressure will control the weather through early Saturday with fair weather and a warming trend. Now that Matthew is not in the picture through the weekend, all we can expect is some showers Saturday night and Sunday morning with the passage of a cold front.
REMAINDER OF TODAY: Sunshine. Temperatures 58-68, mildest far inland. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 40-45 valleys, 45-52 elsewhere. Wind light E.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 65-73, coolest coast. Wind light SE.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 42-47 valleys, 47-54 elsewhere. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 65-72 South Coast, 72-77 elsewhere. Wind light S to SW.
SATURDAY: Sunny start. Cloudy finish. Rain showers at night. Lows 50-58. Highs 68-75.
SUNDAY: Cloudy start. Rain showers morning. Clearing afternoon. Lows 50-58. Highs 58-66.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 10-14)…
At this time with Matthew’s resolution likely taking place well south of this area, we’ll end up with a dry and mild pattern, though it may trend cooler later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 15-19)…
A couple rain shower episodes and variable temperatures, but averaging near to above normal.