56 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

1. Thanks Tk

2. Good morning and thank you TK.

   Any chance the Tues/Wed clipper ends up being more than expected.

   The snow amounts have been trending upwards.

   I have this sneaky feeling it could end up a “Moderate” snow event. We shall
   see. Of course it is totally dependent on the exact track and any possible redevelopment and location of said development.

   1. Pretty rigorous clipper and attendant 500 mb.

3. Thank you.

4. Nice day !

5. 12z GFS back to coastal for the 6th….details will continue to change but this is very encouraging if you like snow

   1. Anything Tuesday/Weds from the clipper on that run?

      1. Not really, but that may be something watch

6. Thank you TK!

7. Thank you!

8. So as you know the pattern change to a colder regime (not extreme, just colder) overall for the end of January and at least into February has been well-advertised here for days, weeks, maybe even a couple months. That was the easy part.

   What’s more difficult: Snow chances. JMA and I have been in general agreement that there was at least an even chance that when we turned colder, we’d also be on the drier side. Snow chances naturally go up in the grand scheme in a more persistently cold pattern, unless you have terrible timing (like February 1979 when it was frigid most of the month except for a series of storms that brought brief warm-ups and mix/rain). After eyeing a snow threat for days for this weekend and now realizing that the ingredients are “there” but not “together enough” to bring anything more than a cold front with rain/snow showers, and a clipper system coming along for the last day of January that will probably be moisture starved, I see that the dry is going to win out, at least initially, as we go colder. I realize that some folks have been eyeing a system out around February 6 that has been showing up on most medium range guidance. Same rule here applies as always: pay attention to the signal, not the details. I have a feeling I know how that one is going to play out, but I’m going to hold off for now. I will then reveal my thoughts (honestly) against the more certain outcome, as we get closer, and I will also explain what lead me to them.

   1. In other words and OUT TO SEA scenario….

      1. You are jumping way ahead. 😛

         1. In other other words–direct hit!

            1. You’re jumping way ahead too. It must be a “Dave” thing. 😉

         2. No, I just was going to worse case scenario and especially the way you worded it. I am a pessimist as you know.

            However, that being said, I am encouraged by the Euro.
            Although no direct hit in that run, it is MUCH closer
            than the 0Z run. The upper flow does sharpen up some, much more so than 0Z run. AND, one last thing, it shows some sort of funky convergence going on at the surface through 850MB OR some sort of Norlyn type set up that keeps the snow going with the system well out in the ocean. At the end of the run, it still has it snowing
            moderately to heavy in Eastern SNE. So, not sure what to make of this, except way too early to write it off.
            And with more to go, it has 6 inches for the Boston
            area.

            It has my attention. 😀

9. “I can’t believe how warm it’s been this January!”

   “This is the warmest January ever! It has to be!”

   These are not direct quotes but are paraphrased statements that I have heard recently in my travels. So, is this going to be the warmest January ever for Boston? Hardly. January 2017 sits in 11th place at the moment, and based on the forecast for the next few days to end the month, they will either remain there or may just crack into the 10th position.

   Boston as of today sits at 35.6 for a mean temperature, a little above the very warm January of 1990 which ironically followed the coldest December on record in 1989.

   Many people are under the false impression that we have had a lot of really warm Januaries in Boston since 2000. Incorrect. Only 2006 and 2002 (35.6 and 36.7) are “up there”. January 2002 ranks #5 warmest for Boston. Most of the others saw average temps below 30.

   There was a warm stretch from 1949-1953 for Januaries in Boston with average temps 5 years in a row in the lower to middle 30s, not burning it up by any stretch, but a decent streak.

   So just when were the 4 warmest Januaries in Boston? Here they are…
   #4) 1937 .. 37.4
   #3) 1933 .. 37.9
   #2) 1932 .. 38.8
   #1) 1913 .. 39.3

   Not all Januaries of the past were so harsh here in southern New England.

10. TK but how many have been above average since 2000… Good portion of them, I think around 70%. The problem is not one year over the other, It’s the overall premise of overall most are above average and we will continue to see more and more the anomalies. Warm and Cold Dry and Wet.

    1. 2000 through 2016 for Boston in January…

       8 above normal
       8 below normal
       1 right on normal

       50/50

       1. Sounds about right to me.

          1. The warmest January weather in Boston was the 1920s and 1930s when 13 out of 17 Januaries were above normal, some very significantly above.

11. Average mean temp for January

    2000 27
    2001 30
    2002 36
    2003 24
    2004 21
    2005 26
    2007 33
    2008 34
    2009 25
    2010 30
    2011 28
    2012 34
    2013 32
    2014 28
    2015 26
    2016 33

    That’s an average of 29.2 since 2000
    Average overall temp for Boston is 29 degrees. Right on the money I’d say.

    1. Those are from Wunderground and rounded by them, so not to the nearest tenth.

       1. If you get the actual values with the tenths, you’ll come up with 28.0 rounded which is 1.2 degrees below the 29.2 average for that 17 year period.

          In other words, the last decade and a half is running slightly cooler than normal in Boston in January.

          1. Thanks. 🙂

12. Thank you, TK.

    People’s memories tend to be short and skewed towards salient features. And, their understanding of norms or averages is deficient. Very few Januaries will be recorded as average or the norm. Most will be below or above average. And, given the highly variable nature of weather in SNE we will often experience well below or well above average temperatures. Surely, this month has been well above average. This then becomes a salient feature of this winter thus far. Similarly, the period between late January and early March 2015 was the salient feature of the 2014/2015 winter. Hardly anyone remembers the dreary, rainy, well above average temperatures in December 2014 and into January 2015.

    1. I have always said this and will continue to, since it’s the absolute truth. We also have a tendency to focus on one side versus another. For example, we get 3 Januaries in a row above normal and it is used as an argument for a particular side, however the fact that we had 3 pretty cold Januaries in a row from 2003 through 2005, including one that the average temp in Boston was over 8 below normal, gets ignored.

       Climate has a lot more to do with what happens over a long period of time rather than during the course of a few years or a decade. Trust me, I’ve been doing this a long time and worked alongside a 2 climatologists with a combined 120+ years experience.

       1. I would agree with both of you. I think even more than focusing on one side or the other…..which people do…..we also focus on the small picture rather than the overall (e.g., the world cannot be warming because it was cold in my state this month).

          1. Wise words from a wise woman.

13. Matt, Et Al., while this does not surprise me, I think that Boston is not a barometer for the world. Also, January is just one month. It has always had a tendency to pop warm days…hence the misnomer, January thaw. The average temp worldwide is rising. Averages are a good measure. I would also like to see how the swings compare, how ocean temps are, etc. I do wish we had a better place to record than Logan.

    1. I agree. See below and above.

14. Point is, somebody could have looked at the warm tendency for January for the Northeast in the 1920s and 1930s and drawn a major conclusion about the climate for a much larger area. That’s like trying to put together a 1000 piece jigsaw puzzle with about 25 of the pieces. Not going to work.

    1. Hahahaha. You and I are saying the same thing at the same time. See above

       1. This never surprises me. 😛

          1. Nor I. 🙂

15. Another thought. We focused on average temp. Should it be avg hi and lo instead of average?

    1. Most climatologists will say that you won’t really get any more out of looking at the 2 ends than the middle, in the big picture. However, this can be useful when looking at things like changes in the local area or location of sensors.

       1. It might take some to convince me that drilling down doesn’t give you another view 🙂

16. AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    What is Boston’s longest stretch of below 32 degree weather?
    A. 7 days
    B. 12 Days
    C. 17 Days
    D. 22 Days

    Answers later today. Actually much later … I have a dinner date.

    1. I will guess C.

    2. C.

    3. D….I have a very scientific reason for that choice

17. Ok Dave(s). I’ll end the suspense. This is just my blog and just the comments section, so for fun I’ll toss out my idea about that system around February 6 way in advance…

    1) It’s a little slower, in other words, February 6-7.
    2) It’s more than one system, in other words, 1 that slides out south of us because the upper trough lags too far back.
    3) BECAUSE the upper trough lags behind, a second low spawns and is not a miss.
    4) Don’t ask me how much of a non-miss, because I couldn’t tell you this far in advance even if I could work magic and know I was right about this scenario.

    1. So at least a Great Lakes Cutter is off the table? 😀

    2. Oooooooooo I like this

    3. Thank you. I shall enjoy watching it evolve as I always do. Here’s hoping it’s a hit and a biggie. So far looking more of a Moderate type event, should it materialize. BUT it is so far out there. lots of wiggle room for things to change.

18. The ECMWF still is flirting with my system for later tomorrow / Monday. 😉

19. It’s clear to me that the trough I’ve been “worried about” for days and days and days and days and days is going to spawn something south of New England Sunday/Monday. The question is, does it come close enough to give accumulating to snow to at least Nantucket, and maybe even parts of the South Coast? Will try to answer this by tomorrow morning.

    1. 18Z NAM has it CLOSER still to us. Tantalizingly close. Good call TK.
       And the 500MB looks awesome. Perhaps it will still come around.

       ALSO, this latest NAM run, has the Tues/Wed system a tad more juiced up.
       Not that it means a lot of snow, but now showing a general 1-2 inches, which
       is a bit more than flurries. 😀

       Still watching that one as the 500mb looks awesome. IF it could only track just a bit more South????

       1. GFS, just a bit outside.

20. C for the trivia.
    I think this tweet from meteorologist John Homenuk supports what TK is saying for Monday.
    https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/825435469387292672

21. Regarding TK’s scenario above regarding 2/6-2/7–sounds intriguing–but no post Super Bowl snow day.

22. I know we don’t speak politics here but future promising high end doctors are being sent on there way . Just happened with the Brigham & Harvard medical school . What a disgrace .

23. 0z NAM brings a touch of precipitation to the Islands on Monday.
    Around an inch for Tuesday for snow.

    1. Pretty much what Barry said this morning…D-2″ for Tuesday.

24. New post awaits when you wake up!

Comments are closed.