11:58AM (FIRST POST) / 8:40PM (EDIT TO REMOVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON FORECAST) / 11:59PM (EDIT TO REMOVE SUNDAY NIGHT FORECAST)

JULY ENDS NICELY

The last 3 days of July will trend to very nice Summer weather after an unsettled beginning early Monday as a cold front moves slowly eastward off the coast. It will take a while for the humidity to be replaced by drier air, so Monday will still be a somewhat humid day, warming up as sun replaces clouds, and after some morning showers and possibly a thunderstorm around the region I still cannot rule out a pop up shower or storm in the afternoon, though chances will likely decrease as the day goes on. Upper level low pressure will be moving eastward north of the region as surface high pressure builds in on Tuesday, and this means that some clouds will have to share the sky with sunshine, but it will be a nice summer day overall. Even more sun will dominate Wednesday as high pressure dominates. Dew points will be lower with comfortable air Tuesday into Wednesday, and though the humidity may begin to creep upward later Wednesday, it will probably go unnoticed.

AUGUST’S EARLY DAYS UNSETTLED BUT NOT TOO BAD

The first 4 days of August will feature a pattern of a digging trough of low pressure into the Great Lakes and high pressure off the East Coast. A couple cold fronts will pass through the region during this time (early guess on timing suggests early Friday and early Sunday). There will be a few episodes of showers and thunderstorms during this stretch, but much of the time will end up being rain-free.

PUTTING IT TOGETHER…

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, RI, and eastern MA)…

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and possible thunderstorms in the morning, then partly to mostly sunny with only isolated showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. Humid. Highs 78-83 coast, 83-88 inland. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Less humid. Lows 60-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 80-85, some 70s Cape Cod & Islands. Wind W 10-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-65, some upper 50s inland valley locations. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 82-87, cooler Cape Cod & Islands. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms mostly late in the day. Low 64. High 86.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms mostly morning-midday. Low 64. High 82.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 62. High 83.

SUNDAY:  Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 64. High 84.

7:46AM

High pressure brings great summer weather today before a cold front approaching from the west brings much more cloudiness and episodes of showers and possible thunderstorms Sunday, lingering into Monday before another area of high pressure returns nice summer weather to the region Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. This is how the final 5 days of July are expected to go. The first couple days of August (Thursday-Friday) look humid with a shower and thunderstorm threat.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (RI, eastern MA, and southern NH)…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 80s, some upper 70s South Coast. Wind W shifting to S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows in the 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 75-85, coolest South Coast. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy morning with showers. Clearing afternoon. Low 65. High 80.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 62. High 85.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 63. High 84.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 65. High 86.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 66. High 84.

9:50PM

The cold front that barely made it through the region Wednesday is sitting just southeast of New England and on Thursday served as a lifting ramp for warm air trying to come back into the region but riding up over a wedge of cooler air near the surface. This created clouds and eventually rain that moved into the region. A wave of low pressure on the front will bring a stronger punch of rain overnight and early Friday, especially to eastern areas. Rainfall amounts of 0.25 to 1.50 inch additional are expected through Friday morning, with some areas of Cape Cod probably seeing greater than 1.50 inch. As low pressure crosses Cape Cod and then moves northward into Maine during Friday, the rain will taper off but clouds will be stubborn. But by Saturday, the clouds will have departed and the nasty weather will be replaced by a very nice summer day. This will not last, as a cold front approaching from the west will return clouds and eventually showers and thunderstorms to southeastern New England from west to east on Sunday. Showers will linger Monday as the front slowly moves offshore. A couple of nice summer days are expected Tuesday-Wednesday next week as high pressure takes control.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Overcast. Showers/rain and a slight chance of thunder increasing from south to north, heaviest Cape Cod and far eastern MA after midnight. Areas of fog. Lows upper 50s to middle 60s. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts across east coastal MA and Cape Cod.

FRIDAY: Overcast morning with showers/rain, heaviest eastern areas, then decreasing from south to north. Mostly cloudy with a few additional showers possible in the afternoon. Areas of fog. Highs upper 60s to middle 70s. Wind N 10-20 MPH, gusts around 30 MPH especially Cape Cod in the morning.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Decreasing clouds. Patchy fog. Lows 60-65. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs in the 80s except 70s South Coast and Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 65-70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny Cape Cod in the morning otherwise mostly cloudy. Showers/thunderstorms developing west to east afternoon. Highs 75-85, coolest South Coast. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms especially eastern areas. Low 65. High 80.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 62. High 85.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 63. High 85.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 66. High 88.

6:37PM

A cold front finally made it through the region Wednesday, which has been a warm and still somewhat humid day, though dew points have been lowering from west to east as drier air moves in behind the front. This drier air will continue through Thursday, though clouds will start to make a comeback as moisture rides up along the front that will not have gotten that far offshore before stopping. Low pressure developing on this front will bring another batch of wet weather Thursday night into Friday, and some of it may be quite heavy. With luck, this all lifts away and weak high pressure brings a much nicer day Saturday, though warm and still somewhat humid. Humidity will hang around for Sunday and Monday as well but another front in the region will bring shower and thunderstorm chances once again. Nice summer weather should followed this toward the middle of next week.

Forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows upper 50s to middle 60s. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs lower to middle 70s. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain and embedded thunderstorms developing, some heavy. Lows 62-67. Wind NE 10-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with rain and thunderstorms including torrential downpours morning. Mostly cloudy with lingering showers and a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs middle to upper 70s. Wind NE 10-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 66. High 86.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Low 68. High 82.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible. Low 66. High 80.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 65. High 85.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 64. High 86.

7:17PM

No major changes to the discussion. Front gets through tonight/Wednesday but still close enough to kick off a few showers/storms Wednesday, then hangs about just offshore with a shower threat for eastern areas for at least part of Friday. Feeling optimistic about early weekend with a sliver of high pressure in control. New front approaches from the west and returns unsettled weather to the region Sunday. Early  next week some uncertainty but for now will play it optimistically.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Mostly to partly cloudy. Lingering showers and possibly a thunderstorms mainly east central MA southward. Lows in the 60s. Wind variable to W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs upper 70s to middle 80s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower to middle 60s. Wind W 5-10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers especially East Coast region. Low 64. High 78.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 66. High 85.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers/thunderstorms likely. Low 68. High 82.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers. Low 64. High 81.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 63. High 85.

3:34PM

Plain and simple, a week of changing weather. Not that abnormal for New England anyway. No heat waves, no super dry air, kind of everything in between, driven by these systems with these expected results.

Tonight/Tuesday: Warm front and wave of low pressure traverse the region with the return of clouds and eventually showers and possible thunderstorms. Some areas may be visited by heavy downpours.

Wednesday: Cold front slogs eastward through the region and finally gets offshore during the day, but with some heating and humidity around and lift with the front, we could see a round or 2 of showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday: Sliver of high pressure brings slightly drier, mild air – a nice day.

Friday: Warm front tracks through the region but probably with only variable clouds and a slight risk of passing showers.

Weekend: Low pressure trough approaches from the west but battles a weak ridge over our area. This probably means a warmer, humid, but mostly rain-free day on Saturday, and a mild and muggy day that turns showery Sunday. Long way off – plenty of time to fine-tine.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, RI)…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and a few thunderstorms, mostly after midnight. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the morning. More numerous showers and possible thunderstorms with some downpours possible in the afternoon. Humid. Highs in the 70s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Showers decreasing in frequency. Humid. Lows in the 60s.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms especially morning through early afternoon. Highs 75-85, coolest South Coast. Wind variable to W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 60. High 79.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 62. High 81.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 66. High 86.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers/thunderstorms likely. Low 68. High 82.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers/thunderstorms. Low 66. High 81.

8:05PM SATURDAY (EDITED 8:00AM SUNDAY to remove TONIGHT portion)

Things worked out pretty much as expected in a general sense during Saturday. The idea of earlier timing and most widespread thunderstorm activity being southwest to south of  Boston worked out for the most part. Some areas to the north did see brief heavy downpours with some lightning and thunder. And still, some areas are “still waiting” for the storms, and will do so in vain as things are winding down as the sun sets on the day, and the heatwave. A cold front will finish sweeping across the region during the night, kicking off a few last thunderstorms over RI and southeastern MA, and this will lead us to a much more comfortable Sunday with clouds and a few showers lingering on the South Coast early, sun and clouds elsewhere, and a slight risk of a pop up shower but mainly dry weather, not as hot, and less humid than the recent stretch of weather. Enjoy it though, because we get into a low pressure trough pattern much of next week, which will be unsettled and rather humid, but without the return to heat.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

SUNDAY: Lots of clouds and scattered showers moving across southern RI and the South Coast of MA. Partly cloudy elsewhere. Slight risk of isolated showers mainly inland this afternoon. Highs 80-86 but cooling back to the 70s coast. Wind N 5-15 MPH shifting to NE.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows upper 50s to middle 60s. Wind light NE.

MONDAY: Increasing cloudiness. Highs 75-80. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: Daily episodes of showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the 60s. Highs 75-85.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers/thunderstorms. Low 65. High 85.

8:48PM

99 at  Boston Friday. Broke the old record of 98, but fell shy of triple-digits by 1. It was humid, but not super-muggy, in the immediate Boston area because of a west wind downsloping off the hills and drying out slightly. Not the case closer to the South Coast where soupy dew points were in the upper 70s. Ick!

One more day of heat Saturday. Should break 90 just about everywhere except typical South Coast areas that get wind off the water. What about the severe storm threat? It’s there, but things are looking up just a little from closer to Boston northward. The best dynamics to pop bigger storms should be southwest of the city from south central MA into CT and RI. This is not to say there will not be any big boomers up closer to the city and up through southern NH, but the chance is just a little less. We should still see one main line, or broken line of storms, forming and moving southeastward across the region during the afternoon and early evening, and it may struggle to hold together all the way to Cape Cod in the evening. But regardless of where you are, keep an eye to the sky and listen for warnings, in case. Stay safe!

Heat breaks! Warm but drier Sunday, mild and still on the dry side into Monday as we get a quick hit of a dry air mass from Canada. This won’t last long though. The humidity comes back, without the heat, for much of next week, along with an unsettled weather pattern as a trough takes up residence in the Northeast.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Hazy with a few clouds later. Muggy and very warm but a nice breeze at times. Lows in the 70s, may not drop below 80 in Boston. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Hazy with sun/clouds. Heavier clouds arrive from the NW during the afternoon with an area of showers/thunderstorms, timing most likely to be any time after 2PM for southern NH into northern MA to between 4PM and sunset heading southeastward through Boston then down toward Cape Cod. Watch for strong to possibly severe thunderstorms with potentially damaging winds, favoring areas southwest of Boston, but not impossible to get anywhere. Highs upper 80s to middle 90s before storms, may cool significantly where heavy rain falls and more gradually in places that only light showers occur or storms miss. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, may become variable and then strong and gusty near any storms.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Any showers/storms southeastern MA and RI diminishing, otherwise partly cloudy. A few fog patches in valleys, swamps, and bogs. Lowering humidity but mild. Lows in the 60s. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs in the 80s but drier. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunshine, clouds later. Low 58. High 79.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of showers or rain. Low 61. High 76.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of showers, possible thunderstorms. Low 62. High 79.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 65. High 85.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 66. High 86.

5:17PM

Breezer, Blazer, One Liner: All things that describe the last 3 days of the hot spell. Read on.

Breezer: A hot day for sure today across much of the region, but again a sea breeze developed along the MA East Coast and has progressed inland into the I-95 belt including Boston’s Metro West. This is more of a sea breeze than I had been expecting, and was likely enhanced by an outflow boundary left behind by a cluster of thunderstorms moving off the coast of Maine late last night – recall something like this happened last week too. Also, the disturbance that I thought might kick of storms southwest of  Boston is a no-show. However, some pop up storms did get going in the heat in south central and southeastern NH this afternoon, including a severe cell. This activity may briefly try to survive as it encounters lift near the sea breeze boundary in the 495 belt in the last hour of the afternoon to very early evening, but as the sun sinks, this activity should disappear. The ocean air that came into the region is already warming due to the hot land so not a whole lot of additional relief is to be had. In fact, a developing southwest wind later this evening may make it feel a little warmer to hotter in areas that had cooled down, as the dew point will come back up in these areas after having been knocked down along with the temperature from the sea breeze.

Blazer: Friday will be the hottest day of this stretch as a west southwest wind gets cranking. The plus of the wind will be that it will provide ventilation, but it will drive the heat right to the beaches that had enjoyed several days of relieving sea breezes. The only spot that will see a little modification will be where a west southwest wind comes off water (portions of the South Coast, Cape Cod and Islands). Despite the heat, the lack of instability Friday will limit the thunderstorm threat, with only a minimal risk of an isolated pop-up storm.

One Liner: The heat is going to break as a cold front crosses the region on Saturday afternoon and evening. The timing of this front is critical, as the air will be unstable and it will still be hot. This is a classic setup for a squall line of thunderstorms to form in NH/VT/NY and then move east southeast across MA/CT/RI. There is severe storm potential, with the main threat being damaging straight line wind and potential microbursts. This may all occur in one line of storms, which at least eliminates the need for tracking multiple lines and clusters of storms. A single squall line does not mean that everybody will see severe weather either. We will have to see how the line sets up and moves, and its timing. If it occurs too early, before we have maxed out our heating for the day, it wouldn’t have as much time to grow to full potential. If it waited until much later in the evening, it would be arriving after the heat had started to ease and may also be a little weaker. Somewhere in the middle, and we’re talking a more potent line. This will be watched closely.

After that, a “refresher” course: A new air mass, much more comfortable, will be in place for Sunday and the start of next week! Enjoy that before humidity tries to make a come back by the middle of next week (probably without the extreme heat though).

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

THROUGH SUNSET: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and a few thunderstorms southern NH and northeastern MA may produce a few brief downpours. Temperature from near 80 MA Coast to near 90 further inland. Wind varying from a weakening sea breeze eastern areas, variable 5-15 MPH elsewhere.

OVERNIGHT: Partly cloudy. Stuffy. Lows upper 60s to middle 70s. Wind variable to WSW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Slight risk of an isolated thunderstorm. Sultry. Highs in the 90s, potentially about 100 in a few locations, and may hold in the middle to upper 80s some areas of the South Coast, Cape, & Islands. Wind WSW to SW 10-20 MPH gusting as high as 30 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and hazy. Muggy. Lows 70-80, warmest in urban centers. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Hazy sunshine through early afternoon. A line of thunderstorms expected from west northwest to east southeast (first in NH and northern MA, later in RI and southeastern MA) sometime during the mid afternoon through early evening hours. Potential for strong to severe storms with damaging wind. Very humid. Highs 85-95, hottest interior eastern MA, coolest Cape Cod and Islands. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty, becoming variable and potentially strong and gusty near thunderstorms.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Thunderstorms ending, lastly over Cape Cod and the Islands. Partly cloudy. Lowering humidity. Lows in the 60s. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 80-85. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 60. High 80.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 60. High 78.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 60. High 76.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms. Low 64. High 82.

12:21AM

There is nothing unusual going on folks. It’s summertime, and it’s hot. We get into this pattern. And despite the media making it sound like we’re in the midst of another majorly  unusual event, it’s quite common to be hot in the summer. A little Weather 101. But enough editorializing – let’s get to the weather itself. Truthfully, it has not been that brutal. Dew points, though reaching and exceeding 70 in a few locations, have spent much of the time in the 60s during this stretch. Humid? Sure. Not super oppressive. And high temperatures have been in the lower 90s for the most part, with sea breeze cooling near the beaches. Some heat for sure, but not excessive. That said, we may be heading for the worst of it in terms of humidity and heat as surface winds turn more west and southwest Thursday and Friday, after a Wednesday that is similar to the early part of the week – lighter winds with a sea breeze. What has been missing is the haze that we’ve often seen during hot summer patterns. Part of the reason is we are seeing results of more strict laws for emissions. But we also need to get into air that has stagnated and collected pollutants over several days, and we’ve been getting our air from around the edges of the high pressure ridge, with pushes of clean air from eastern Canada and sometimes off the ocean. We will probably see an increase in haze by Thursday and Friday as some of the “dirty” air in stagnating under high pressure in the Midwest makes it into New England.

But what about thunderstorm threats? We have had minimal activity so far in this stretch, with only a few pop up downpours here and there. There will be some changes ahead, and the storm threat should take place something like this:

Wednesday: Focus points will be a weak sea breeze boundary just inland from the NH and eastern MA seacoasts, and also a possible second boundary over areas inland from the South Coast in southern MA and parts of RI created by a more southerly wind there. Also a trigger from a weak disturbance passing north of the region may enhance development. Not looking for widespread activity,  just isolated to widely scattered, with no real threat of severe storms.

Thursday: In the heat and humidity a pop up storm is possible anywhere during the afternoon and evening, but a disturbance coming along from the west northwest may develop a cluster or line of storms somewhere in western New England that may then cut across parts of MA and RI (favoring areas southwest to south of Boston), late afternoon or early evening.

Friday: Isolated storms may pop up in the heat, but more stable air aloft may limit development. Will keep an eye on this in case it is less stable than I currently expect.

Saturday: This day carries the most potential with the arrival of a cold front into a hot, humid airmass, along with much greater instability and parameters for possible severe weather. However, it will be all in the timing, and will also depend on whether or not any secondary trough lines form (little disturbances that often accompany passing fronts). These troughs can fire storms earlier than expected, but sometimes will limit later development. There is also a chance that the cold front itself arrives sooner than the computer models currently show. This would also  limit severe storm development, and end the threat earlier. There is enough potential and enough uncertainty to stress that this potential weather situation needs to be closely monitored.

Since I am leaning toward a quicker frontal passage, I will be optimistic for Sunday and the start of next week, with less heat and humidity and generally fair weather at least Sunday and Monday. A disturbance may bring unsettled weather to the region Tuesday, but this is way out in the future and timing may change.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to widely scattered afternoon showers/thunderstorms. Highs 90-95 except upper 70s to 80s coastal areas.  Wind variable to S 5-15 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Any isolated showers end early. Lows upper 60s to middle 70s. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy and hazy. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms and a chance of a cluster of storms mainly west and south of Boston late afternoon or early evening hours. Highs 91-96 except 80s to around 90 coastal areas that face south. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny and hazy. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Highs 94-99 except cooler in a few areas of the South Coast through Cape Cod. Wind SW to W 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy.  Thunderstorms, some strong. Low 74. High 91.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 63. High 83.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 62. High 82.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. PM showers. Low 63. High 80.

12:39AM

A large area of high pressure will continue to drift westward over the eastern USA. Here in southern New England we will be on the northeastern side of this ridge, and though it’s a generally hot pattern for most of the region, it does allow for some natural air conditioning via a sea breeze, and this will be possible through midweek, possibly even enhanced a little by a weak back-door cold front coming into some areas today. By later in the week, a more prominent west to southwest wind will limit the ocean cooling to the South Coast and Cape Cod, and while this is ongoing, a trough of low pressure and associated cold front trying to press southeastward out of Canada will provide  energy and focus for a better chance of thunderstorms starting late Thursday but especially Friday and Saturday. The timing of the front is uncertain this far out, so it is difficult to pin-point the coverage and timing of storms. There is some potential for strong to severe storms, regardless. Wording will be vague for now and will be fine-tuned as the potential event draws closer. By late in the weekend, provided the front does not get hung up, we should be treated to somewhat cooler and less humid air.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TODAY: Mostly to partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible mainly interior eastern MA, southern NH, and northern RI from mid afternoon to sunset. Highs 90-95 but 80s beaches possibly falling to the upper 70s NH Coast to Cape Cod late. Wind variable to N 5-15 MPH shifting more to the NE from southeastern NH into eastern MA during the afternoon.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly clear. Lows upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind variable 5-10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly to partly sunny. Isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms possible, favoring southern NH and interior southeastern MA to northern RI. Highs 90-95 inland areas, 80s beaches. Wind variable 5-15 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered PM thunderstorms. Low 71. High 92.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Scattered PM and evening thunderstorms. Low 73. High 94.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Low 70. High 89.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 64. High 82.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 62. High 84.

10:15PM

Upper level high pressure will be entered just southwest of New England to start the week but will retrograde further west with time, allowing the jet stream to sink a little further southward over the region by the end of the week, along with some disturbances moving along it. A weather front may get close and sneak down part of the coast on  Tuesday and will again make an appearance nearby about Friday, finally getting pushed southward with a couple of secondary trough lines or weak fronts traversing the region by the weekend.

The overall story for much of the week will be the heat and humidity dominating the region. But that series of fronts by the end of the week may deliver a shot of less humid, less hot air by later in the weekend.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Clouds depart the South Coast, a few low clouds and fog patches may form, otherwise mostly clear. Humid. Lows middle 60s to lower 70s. Wind light variable.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Slight chance of an isolated thunderstorm late day or early evening mainly northern MA and southern NH. Humid. Highs lower 80s South Coast and Cape Cod to lower 90s most locations. Wind variable to NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Humid. Lows middle 60s to lower 70s. Wind light NW to N

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Chance of a few showers and thunderstorms mainly interior southern NH, east central MA, and northern RI mid afternoon through early evening. Humid. Highs middle 80s to lower 90s, but may cool back through the 80s to the upper 70s coastal areas especially southern NH to eastern MA coastal areas later in the day. Wind N 5-15 MPH may turn more NE in NH and MA coastal areas.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated PM thunderstorms favoring southern NH and northeastern MA. Low 69. High 91.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered PM thunderstorms favoring southern NH, northeastern and east central MA. Low 70. High 92.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered thunderstorms. Low 72. High 90.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low 68. High 88.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 64. High 82.

10:08AM

It’s time for the heat again, starting today in some areas and in pretty much all areas Monday through Thursday, hanging on in many Friday, before easing slightly next weekend. That’s a capsule of the coming week plus. A full discussion will follow later with The Week Ahead post but for now here is an updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated thunderstorms possible especially late afternoon or early evening but most areas rain-free. Humidity rising. Highs in the 80s, may hold in the 70s some immediate coastal areas and may approach 90 interior valleys. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. A few patches of fog. Muggy. Lows 65-70. Wind light variable.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Slight chance of isolated thunderstorms late day. Highs around 90, cooler some beaches. Wind variable to NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy each with a risk of a few isolated thunderstorms mainly late afternoons and early evenings. Lows 64-74, warmest urban areas. Highs 84-94, coolest some coastal areas with most areas 90+.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Thunderstorms late. Low 70. High 90.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Showers early. Low 66. High 88.

5:41PM

A cold front is lazily drifting across southeastern New England and won’t even clear Cape Cod before stalling and washing out during the next couple days. The lingering boundary will help initiate some shower activity, but the best chance for this will be Friday as a disturbance also crosses the region. Activity should diminish though is still possible during the weekend.

A repeat of the retrograding ridge pattern (high pressure moving westward from the western Atlantic) will bring a return to hot weather for much of next week.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (eastern MA, southern NH, and RI)…

THIS EVENING (THROUGH SUNSET): Filtered sunshine most areas, but some heavier clouds and isolated to scattered showers and possible thunderstorms (especially Metro West and Merrimack Valley). Temperatures ranging from near 70 coast to near 80 inland, but cooler in areas that showers occur. Wind S to SW in eastern areas, NW to N further to the west, 5-15 MPH.

OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 60s. Wind N up to 10 MPH except variable in coastal areas.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers, especially late morning and afternoon. Slight chance of a thunderstorm. Highs in the 70s, coolest coast. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Chance of showers. Lows in the 60s. Wind light SE.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny, except more sun possible north and west of Boston in the afternoon. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm, favoring areas from the Mass Pike southward. Highs middle 70s to middle 80s, coolest coastal areas. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows in the 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms especially south of Boston. Highs in the 80s. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY-THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated thunderstorms possible each afternoon. Lows 65-75. Highs 85-95, coolest South Coast and Cape Cod.

11:48PM

If you regularly look at the computer models, you’ll know right away which one I am leaning toward. With a warm front moving through the region today, a cold front sliding into the region then slowing down just offshore Thursday and Friday, and a probable cut off low pressure area forming over the region early in the weekend, it looks like an unsettled time continuing for southeastern New England during the next several days. Optimistically, better weather should be expected by late in the weekend or more likely early next week as a ridge of high pressure in the western Atlantic starts to build westward into the Northeast, much like what happened last week, resulting in the heat. Before that, expect several period of showers and thunderstorms.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog Cape Cod, Islands, southeastern and east coastal MA. Lows in the 60s. Wind light E to SE.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy morning with patchy rain moving south to north across the region. Variably cloudy afternoon with a stray shower or thunderstorm possible interior MA and south central NH. Highs 70s coast, 80s inland. Wind SE shifting to S increasing to 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms moving in from west to east but weakening as they cross the region. Lows 65-70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs 75-85, coolest South Coast, warmest interior MA and NH. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm in the morning becoming less numerous in the afternoon. Low 66. High 74.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Low 62. High 75.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Low 64. High 82.

MONDAY: Sunny. Low 65. High 88.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Low 68. High 92.