Tuesday October 6 2020 Forecast (7:54AM)

44 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 6-10)

Discussion…

Weak disturbance move through today with nothing more than some clouds. Cold front moves across the region Wednesday with our only rain chance in this 5-day period. A shot of cooler air Thursday-Friday, followed by a warm-up Saturday, as high pressure makes a trek from west of New England to off the Atlantic Coast during the course of those 3 days.

Details…

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 50-57. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm mainly afternoon hours. Highs 67-74. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with gusts 25-35 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 48-55. Wind W 10-20 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH evening, diminishing slightly overnight.

THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 57-64. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 32-39 except 40-47 immediate shoreline and urban centers. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 53-60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 35-42, except a little milder in urban centers. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 11-15)

Expect above normal temperatures overall. Will any moisture from a Gulf of Mexico tropical system get up here around the middle of the period? Leaning toward no, with it passing to the south of the region, but we may have an opportunity for some wet weather by the end of this period from a trough approaching from the west.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 16-20)

Trough from the west will likely be progressive and maybe even a little faster than some guidance has indicated, so looking for a mostly west-to-east air flow and mostly dry weather with variable temperatures during this time frame.

44 thoughts on “Tuesday October 6 2020 Forecast (7:54AM)”

  6. Is the wind tomorrow going to be as bad as last week . Unfortunately a good part of the haunted house blew down with damage & we are trying to get it back up

  12. Delta CAT 4
    From NHC
    1120 AM EDT UPDATE: NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft report that Hurricane #Delta has rapidly strengthened into a dangerous category 4 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph. More info: http://hurricanes.gov

    1. WOW. This thing is literally exploding by the minute. From a depression to a CAT 4 in just over 24 hours is about as impressive as it gets!

  14. Mark what is your feeling on the Yankees? I feel if they get past the Rays they are going to the World Series.

    1. I am not sure what to think about them JJ. They started out the short season looking great, then fell apart and now seem to be putting things back together in the playoffs. I am concerned about their pitching but agree that if they get past the Rays, they have a legitimate shot.

  16. It will be interesting if Delta makes history and gets its name retired…the first Greek letter to do so. We will see.

  17. Latest Spaghetti plots…

    https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_26_ens.gif

    The potential saving grace for NOLA is that most ensembles are along or west of the NHC track which would imply more of a threat for western/central LA but too close for comfort for NOLA and the right side of the storm is not the side you want to be on for strongest winds and storm surge.

    With this thing now likely crossing the tip of Cancun as a CAT 5, I do not believe there will be enough land interaction to weaken it substantially before it gets back over the warm waters of the open Gulf and restrengthens.

      2. This from the NHC…

        The NHC intensity forecast is above the
        various intensity aids and call for Delta to be an extremely
        dangerous category 4 hurricane when it nears the Yucatan. It could
        be stronger than indicated below since landfall is predicted to
        occur between the 12 and 24 h forecast points. Some reduction in
        intensity is likely when Delta moves over land, but the
        environmental conditions over the southern Gulf of Mexico are
        expected to support re-strengthening, and the NHC intensity
        forecast shows a second peak in 48-72 hours. As mentioned before,
        increasing southwesterly shear and cooler shelf waters near the
        northern Gulf coast are expected to cause some reduction in wind
        speed, but Delta is still expected to be a dangerous hurricane when
        it nears the northern Gulf coast.

  18. Philip Klotzbach
    @philklotzbach
    13m

    #Delta continues to intensify and now has maximum sustained winds of 140 mph. 6 other Atlantic #hurricanes have had max winds >=140 mph in October since 2010:

    Ophelia (2011)
    Gonzalo (2014)
    Joaquin (2015)
    Matthew (2016)
    Nicole (2016)
    Michael (2018)

  20. 12z Euro crushes Lake Charles with pretty much the same exact track as Laura. Euro is at the western envelope of solutions but pretty much all guidance continues to shift west at 12z.

    1. Yes, but have you noticed, all models show this thing losing steam
      as it approaches the coast as alluded to by WxWatcher yesterday. It will still be a blow, but not nearly what it could have been.

      1. Some last minute weakening – yes, due to shear and cooler waters in the northern Gulf but they pretty much all have it maintaining major hurricane strength upon landfall.

        The storm has strengthened so quickly that I don’t even think the models have caught up. Most initialized weaker than what is out there now.

    2. I was just talking to my mom about that while she was outside doing yard work. Life’s interesting, sometimes weird, sometimes forgiving, sometimes cruel. She has beaten an easy form of cancer and is on her hands and knees outside pulling weeds that are going to be gone soon anyway, but I let her do it because it makes her happy. And then we have EVH, a nearly immortal guitar god in many of his fans’ eyes, fought a long battle ultimately losing it and silencing his talent forever. Cherish every day you have.

  25. Short notice but ISS pass from WNW to ESE with 80 degree max elevation (pretty much overhead) from 7:02 to 7:07 this evening.

    1. Of course, Josh Morgerman is right there….

      Josh Morgerman
      @iCyclone
      26m

      My current location (star) in relation to Cat-4 #Hurricane #DELTA. Computer models & current motion suggest I might have to tack back N a little—but I’m in wait-and-see mode right now. There’s no radar coverage on the Yucatan, so that makes precision chasing that much tougher.

      https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1313635584934584320?s=20

    1. Someone I admin an international page with from Scotland asked me that question and that was my answer as to what I suspected would be the procedure.

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