Saturday January 16 2021 Forecast (8:40AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 16-20)

In comparison to our weather over the last few weeks, this is a pretty wild day, starting out with moderate to heavy rainfall and some decent wind. The passing potent low pressure area causing this is the exception to the rule of what will continue to be a fairly benign pattern going forward. Upon the passage of this low, which will cut northeastward across New England today, will arrive drier air once again that will be with us into the middle of the coming week. So, as of the writing of this blog update, a few more hours of rain at most, ending from southwest to northeast by the early afternoon. An additional passing rain shower is possible during the afternoon, and an even lesser risk that a stray snow shower makes it into the WHW forecast area tonight as colder air arrives in the wake of the departing low pressure area. A few rain/snow showers may cross the region on Monday (MLK Jr. Day) as some of the lingering energy from the original low pressure area crosses the Northeast. The next energy looks like it is going to be kept from organizing and also held mostly to the south as our blocking pattern goes on, so heading into the middle of next week the most we’d see is some clouds and a few snow showers as it will be colder at that time.

TODAY: Overcast through midday with rain, heavy at times, and a slight chance of thunder. Breaking clouds with scattered to isolated rain showers in the afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind ESE 10-20 MPH inland and 20-30 MPH coast with gusts 35-45 MPH morning, shifting to S 5-15 MPH midday then SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts again later in the day.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing snow shower possible, mainly west and north of Boston. Lows 25-32. Wind W 15-25 MPH and gusty.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind NW to W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY (MLK JR. DAY): Variably cloudy. Chance of snow and rain showers. Highs 34-41. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a passing snow shower. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 21-25)

Blocking continues. Minor, weak systems may produce a few snow showers at times as the overall temperatures will average near to below normal. It doesn’t look like any organized storm systems will impact the region at this time.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 26-30)

Blocking may weaken. This change may allow for a better chance of being impacted by a more organized low pressure area sometime during this period, but that is far from certain. The odds still favor a drier pattern overall.

44 thoughts on “Saturday January 16 2021 Forecast (8:40AM)”

  3. Good morning and thank you, TK. Last night I had the first real sleep in eight nights. And I see notification that there was lightning close by and I slept right through it. 🙁

  4. Thanks TK.

    Looking like a bit of an overperformer in SNE this morning. The wind is definitely exceeding my expectations at least along the MA/RI coasts. Most places should end up in the 1-2″ rainfall range but some may end up a little higher. Also some tidal flooding concerns at the coast, though shouldn’t be too serious.

    1. Hi WxWatcher. Hope you are well. I only opened my eyes around 8:00 but not much wind here now. I could easily have slept through it. We do have 2.09 rain.

      1. Hi Vicki! The wind inland hasn’t been too impressive, mainly just right along the coast where they’re getting some 40-50mph gusts. You probably didn’t miss much. But you’ve verified the >2″ rainfall 🙂

  5. Thank you TK!
    A nice dose of rain last night, it poured for several hours and so far I have exactly 1.50” in the rain bucket. I wish it were snow, but any precipitation in this type of drier pattern is welcome.

  6. 1.36 inches in the bucket so far and still raining pretty good.

    Thunder at 6:30 This morning. Not all that much wind here.

  7. Parts of the Rockies have a snow deficit for sure, at least
    3 areas in the Southern Rockies.

    Lee Canyon, NV (just outside of Las Vegas)
    Annual snowfall: 160 inches, total thus far: 29 inches

    Arizona Snow Bowl, Just North of Flagstaff, AZ
    Annual snowfall: 260 inches, total thus far: 31 inches

    Taos Ski Vally, Taos, NM
    Annual snowfall: 300 inches, total thus far: 29 inches

    Pretty pathetic!!

  8. I am having trouble finding the data, but I do believe that
    climatologically speaking, today is the coldest day of the year
    on average or very close to today. 🙂

    NOT today, however. 48 degrees!!

  10. Thanks TK !

    That thin convective line was very impressive !!

    Torrential rains with extremely low visibility and howling winds. Lasted 5 minutes, both just quickly tapered off.

  14. I believe that the coldest period on average for a typical winter is January 10th – February 10th so we are probably just getting underway.

    “Coldest” is going to be so relative this particular winter. There hasn’t really been that many bone chilling days (or nights) so far.

      1. Direct quote from Frosty the Snowman in “Rudolph and Frosty’s Christmas in July”. 😀

  18. Thanks TK.

    Paste bomb here at Bromley in southern VT today with 10” of heavy wet snow. Fun but tough on the legs! Drive up this morning was horrendous with roads deteriorating around greenfield MA. Rte 30 between Brattleboro and Stratton was a mess with many branches and a few power lines down. Road was closed before Stratton due to a downed tree and had to take a detour. 3.5 hours to get up there…normally is under 2.5.

  19. Some weather…some not….

    Five years ago tonight we missed a storm. It was Macs celebration of life and TK had told me mid week that he didn’t think it would impact us. We had family coming from many areas of the country. After, TK said he didn’t think most understood just how large a storm we missed. I credit TK with keeping me calm but suspect a certain angel may have helped.

    January 16, 2016, was also the first playoff. Pats son of course. I also credit that same angel with the Pats win in the last two minutes of the super bowl that year.

  20. Vicki that storm you were mentioning gave D.C. Philly Baltimore NYC more snow than they get for an entire winter. So close yet so far from having a memorable snowstorm for SNE.

    2. Well, I see Pivotal Weather has the GFS frames in 3 hour increments right out to hour 384 now. So I guess its in and out in 18 hours thus not THAT slow moving. But still a biggie.

        1. Gee what a SURPRISE!

          I thought I heard somebody mention the models often do stuff like that. 😉

          A one-timer is nothing more than a bad run in most cases. Something looked off on that run from the early panels. The 06z op fits the general pattern idea better.

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