Saturday June 19 2021 Forecast (8:10AM)

34 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 19-23)

A warm front has nearly completed its journey across the region as of the time of this blog writing, and only a few lingering showers associated with it are traversing southeastern New England early this morning, soon to exit, leaving the vast majority of the day free of any shower threat. This is a slightly different forecast than previously, which had a shower and storm threat this afternoon, but right now it looks like the air will be stable enough to prevent more than a brief pop-up shower/storm in isolated locations, and that the energy for showers and storms won’t really arrive until tonight, with a cold front that decided to hang back to the west before moving through. And by then, we’ll have lost a lot of daytime heating, leaving other atmospheric dynamics responsible for triggering and maintaining showers and storms, and the best of that may be passing across far southern portions of the region. What does that mean? It means that the shower and thunderstorm threat will most likely occur during the evening hours and the greatest chance of heaviest activity will be toward the South Coast, but we’ll have to monitor all areas, just to be sure. So if you have outdoor plans this afternoon, you can relax a little but still keep an eye out, and if you have outdoor plans this evening, be a little bit more aware. Still, I think most people get away with nothing more than a passing shower first thing today and again sometime this evening, and many see nothing at all. Any early clouds exit first thing Sunday as the cold front moves offshore, leaving us with a very warm day as there is not much cool air behind that front, but fairly comfortable air as the dew points which peak in the lower 60s today fall back to the upper 50s for Sunday. But don’t get “comfortable” (pun intended) because humidity is set to increase Monday and Tuesday. The higher dew point air will be re-introduced to the region as a warm front quietly passes through the region early Monday. The trend regarding that Gulf of Mexico low pressure area by guidance has been to either keep it as a compact low passing just south of New England or to dissipate it and have some of its moisture become involved with an approaching cold front. Guidance has also been split on the timing of that cold front, for example one model bringing it through on the earlier side Tuesday while another holds it back until later. The timing of that front with respect to daytime heating will have implications on how significant our shower and thunderstorm threat will be that day provided the Gulf low does not have direct impact and make it more of an overcast day anyway. So there are still some questions to answer regarding the forecast for Tuesday for our region. Regardless of those details, the cold front will be offshore and a pleasant polar air mass will arrive by Wednesday of next week.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Early to mid morning isolated showers eastern areas. Slight chance of a brief isolated shower or thunderstorm this afternoon. Highs 83-90, cooler Cape Cod. Dew point lower 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, greatest chance of thunderstorms may be closer to the South Coast region. Patches of fog forming. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Early clouds eastern areas, then sunny. Highs 81-88, cooler Cape Cod. Dew point upper 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 61-68. Dew point upper 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Early-day and late-day clouds with sunshine dominant between. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Dew point rising through 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible especially northwest of Boston in the evening. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW to variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs 80-87, cooler Cape Cod. Dew point near 70. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling through 60s to 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 75-82. Dew point falling to 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 24-28)

Canadian high pressure brings fair weather and low humidity to start, then the high shifts offshore during the period with an increase in humidity and eventually shower and thunderstorm chances, especially June 26-28.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 29 – JULY 3)

A bit more west-to-east flow with overall drier but seasonably warm weather, and one or two disturbances to bring a shower or t-storm risk.

34 thoughts on “Saturday June 19 2021 Forecast (8:10AM)”

  1. Thanks Tk . I’m working at the hospital until noontime then I have a job after .

    1. Not a bad day to be out there. The dew point will try to creep up, but it’s going to be thwarted from reaching the levels I had predicted previously, hence I lowered my expectations from upper 60s to lower 60s, so not even all that muggy. Atmosphere still struggle to produce any convection this afternoon.

  7. So let me get this straight….at 11pm, the “potential tropical cyclone” still lacked a well-defined center, and in fact had multiple low-level swirls as it was just off the coast of Louisiana. At 2am, when it was approaching landfall, it was still just a “potential tropical cyclone”. However, at 5am, once the “center” (on radar I could see at least 2 of them), crossed the coast, it suddenly was a tropical storm, just in time for landfall.

    NHC is a joke.

    1. I have nothing to add. That’s the perfect summary.

      It’s really time for an NHC “re-do” (not happening though I’m sure).

  8. Kind of surprised that Claudette was named kind of not as it hits all their check boxes. It be interesting to see what it does once off the Carolina coast as it looks like the 850V is going to be closed off. I also feel there is a push to name systems to get people to take the non-wind threats that are associated with these systems more seriously. Just a thought as its not the wind that tends to kill, its the flood waters.

    Also seems the background state could become favorable for tropical development in the MDR as we head into early July :/

  9. On my morning walk today I saw some nice “towering altocumulus” or nicely vertically developed cumulus clouds with bases somewhere near 10,000 feet. Typical late spring / early summer warm front sky. Some of the bases were pretty dark but if any rain was falling out of them it was not reaching the ground. They moved on quickly and the sun returned here (still mixed with middle cloud patches) since then.

  10. Not that it isn’t glaringly obvious, but Logan’s thermometer has not been fixed yet. 😉

    1. In other words, shave off 2-3 degrees from their “official” high until further notice. Got it! 🙂

  11. I agree with SAK and TK´s assessment of Claudette.

    If the NHC were going to name it, I have no problem with that, but I do wonder the timing on this particular event.

    I did notice, and I am sorry I don´t have the links to post them, but there was a 3.8 to 5.8 ft storm surge at a couple coastal locations in LA and about a 3 ft storm surge at Mobile Bay.

    I did notice the bigger LA surge occurred not too much before 4am CDT, so perhaps that kind of surge motivated them ???? I don know.

    SAK and TK raise valid issues about the naming of this system, with that said and I am only speaking for myself, I still have great trust in the NHC. They have and continue to do the country so an important service and have and will continue to save countless lives.

      1. I think I´ve shared this before, but since I wrote about the NHC …..

        One New England storm conference I went to, I went upstairs for a presentation on meteo-tsunamis and as the crowd was filling in, a former NHC director Max Mayfield sits a couple seats from me.

        We got talking for 5 or so minutes and I couldn´t believe I was talking to this person I had seen so often on national TV. Came across as a very nice person as did so many of the other weather professionals there. I have to attend another conference soon. The presentations are so well done and so much to learn from.

  12. 87 with 67 DP. I’m enjoying having SAKs link to verify my readings…even though I have spent tons of time making sure they are accurate, it is just one more resource

  14. My wife and one daughter are towards the south coast today and low and behold, thunderstorms have percolated not to far north of their location.

    Hopefully, my wife will check her phone as I texted a radar shot and a guess at how long before the rain arrives.

    I have gotten a ton done today, as my other daughter is working, so I´ve just gotten things accomplished at a slow, steady pace.

  15. Not overly surprised with the convective activity in Maine.
    A little surprised at what’s popped up inland from the South Coast.

      1. It did go north. They should be ok. The activity up there should be waning and the best chance from here on shifts to south of I-90, mostly a bit later (after the current South Coast stuff shifts out of there).

  18. Considering today is one of the longest days of the year, it ended with a very darkened sky. Looks like it’s ready to pour. 🙁

  19. Ummmmmmm there seems to be a lot of green and yellow west of me. Will we dry out by Sunday outdoor brunch?

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