Friday October 22 2021 Forecast (7:33AM)

32 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 22-26)

Guidance is not impressing me at all these days and not giving much in the way of applicable help to putting together the weather forecast, even in the shorter 5-day range. What we know for certain is that a cold front is moving through the region this morning, but a secondary frontal boundary to pass by later holds the coolest air behind it, so we’ll still have a fairly mild day today with varying amounts of clouds. It looks like most shower activity has stayed to the north of the WHW forecast area and I don’t really expect any more showers to pop up during the day, even when the secondary front comes by later. A cooler but dry northerly air flow will take over for the weekend. There had been concern of some wet weather to start the weekend from a potential coastal low with the frontal system not that far south and east of New England, but it doesn’t look like that will really take shape. What will be around is upper level low pressure to produce occasional cloudiness, but probably not strong enough for anything more than a brief passing shower, which I hesitate to even mention in the forecast for the chance being so remote. When we get to early next week the confidence level of the forecast drops off significantly. At least today we are looking at a little more consistency across guidance of some unsettled weather potential for Monday & Tuesday as we see the evolution of a pattern of high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south, with the low pressure then moving into (probably just south of) our area for occasional wet weather evolving during the Monday / Tuesday time frame. There is still the opportunity for high pressure to hold most of the wet weather off through Monday after an initial burst of lighter rainfall. Still working on these details and will refine the forecast the next few updates.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 46-53. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 56-63. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 51-58. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Rain possible. Highs 50-57. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain possible. Lows 40-47. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Highs 48-55. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 27-31)

Plenty of uncertainty in the forecast for the final 5 days of October. Assuming the scenario of low pressure getting into the region with wet weather just beforehand, we should see that low exit early in the period with seasonably cool and drier weather for a brief time followed by impact from another low pressure area with initial rain then lingering showers as it may be slow to exit. Still an opportunity for high pressure to be stronger and limit the wet weather too, so you can see this is a low confidence outlook with plenty of change possible.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 1-5)

I’m no more confident yet on the early November pattern as I am on the one to end October. Leaning toward a gradual return to a more west-to-east flow and variable temperatures along with 1 or 2 unsettled weather threats. Just a general idea for now with lots of fine-tuning to come…

32 thoughts on “Friday October 22 2021 Forecast (7:33AM)”

  5. GFS, couple days in a row now, seems to be hinting at a tropical feature in the eastern Caribbean in the long range.

    Speaking of “tropical”, one more run at 60F dewpoints this morning in eastern Mass.

  9. Boston Buoy current water temp: 60.44
    Average for this date: 54.21
    Departure: +6.23

    I know Tk said it would be coming down, but with all of this warm weather it has been very slow. I suspect that departure will decrease a bit over the next week or so.

    But even so, this is a very large departure and could very well play into decreasing our snow totals, most especially early on in the Snow season.

      2. What was the Buoy temperature last year when Logan received 4”+ of snow? That in and of itself was foreboding as to how much snow was (not) to come. A measly 38.6”.

        October snow is always the kiss of death for the upcoming snow season around here.

        1. I don’t remember, but the air mass was very cold and I believe the wind direction was North or NW and no
          Easterly component.

          1. All it will take is one good day of strong west or northwest winds to create some upwelling and that water temp will plummet.

          1. Then why is it all I remember is the “kiss of death” side of that 50? 😉 Were the “snowy” years when I was very young or before my time?

            2011-12 really stands out!

            1. Using data for Lowell. For “normal”, I am using the 93-year average of 55.5″

              Octobers with snow (at least a trace), and the resulting winter:

              1934-35 Trace/71.5″ ABOVE
              1940-41 Trace/66.2″ ABOVE
              1952-53 Trace/38.3″ BELOW
              1960-61 Trace/74.8″ ABOVE
              1962-63 Trace/37.8″ BELOW
              1965-66 Trace/56.5″ ABOVE (barely)
              1969-70 Trace/59.1″ ABOVE
              1970-71 Trace/79.3″ ABOVE
              1979-80 1.5″/15.5″ BELOW
              1997-98 Trace/46.6″ BELOW
              2000-01 0.2″/85.2″ ABOVE
              2001-02 Trace/32.7″ BELOW
              2002-03 0.4″/84.9″ ABOVE
              2003-04 Trace/41.2″ BELOW
              2005-06 Trace/55.7″ NORMAL
              2009-10 Trace/46.0″ BELOW
              2011-12 8.7″/23.9″ BELOW

              That’s 17 times – 8 above normal, 8 below normal, one nearly exactly normal. That should put that idea to rest.
              2015-16 Trace/38.0″ BELOW
              2020-21 4.3″/40.8″ BELOW

              1. Correction: That’s 19 times – 8 above normal, 10 below normal, one nearly exactly normal. That should put that idea to rest.

                (I hadn’t scrolled back down enough) when tallying everything up. Still, it’s nearly evenly split.

                1. Thanks for the info! I know we have discussed this very topic online and at conferences, etc. …

                  I think the public perception is skewed by 2 notable October snows (1979 & 2011) that were followed by lean snow winters. But 2 sample years tells you basically nothing. Our professors at Lowell & our mentors at WSC warned us about “not enough data”! 🙂

                2. So if we don’t have snow in October we will have an above average snowfall. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
                  ❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️

  10. Hahaha !! I’ll go with it. 😛

    (Had to reply on a new comment because of the setting I have WP on for # of replies allowed under one comment. I’d like to speak to the admin of this page please!) 😉

  12. Bruins fans, tonight’s game and the games on Nov 26, Jan 20, and April 19 will not be on regular TV. You need ESPN+ / Hulu to see them live. All the other games will be on TV (most on NESN, some on ESPN, a few on TNT, and 1 or 2 on ABC).

  13. La-Nina, which could start to weaken second half of winter? There been areas seeing 1.5C below avg at short times. Also more centrally based.
    -PDO
    -QBO becoming more negative this year.
    Higher ice and snow in Siberia/Arctic.
    Seems like the MJO could also play a major part this winter

    1. MJO has been a minor or non-factor the last couple winters. Should be a bit more prominent this go-’round.

  15. Sox have scored 1 run in 25 innings. That’s actually hard to do at any time during the season, let alone in the playoffs. I tip my cap to the Astros’ pitching staff.

    1. I heard on the tv morning news (Ch. 7) that some fans heard “activity” from the Astros dugout whenever the Sox were up at bat. I didn’t watch any of the games at Fenway, let alone being there so I can’t comment any further on what “could” have been going on those last two games here.

      Hmmm? 😉

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