Saturday November 13 2021 Forecast (8:23AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 13-17)

After a wet and wild Friday, we have a break in the action for a good number of today’s hours – basically the short daylight hours. With lingering low level moisture after yesterday’s rain, mild air, and humid conditions, this morning while dawning with a clear sky above has seen some fog patches in lower elevations. Any of these will burn off quickly as the sun climbs toward its low-angle peak in the mid November sky, but despite the low sun angle and short daylight, it will be a fairly nice day, temperature-wise, and with a relatively light wind. But things will start to change quickly as we head toward sunset. Clouds will advance from the west quickly ahead of a potent disturbance. This disturbance, as mentioned on yesterday’s discussion, is rotating around a large low pressure circulation in eastern Canada, and will dive through the Great Lakes early today before rounding the base of the circulation and heading east and northeast into our region, passing through in very quick fashion between about sunset and 8 p.m. An area of surface low pressure will be forming right as this crosses our area. What we can expect from it is 1 or 2 broken to solid lines of rain showers that may contain downpours, small hail, gusty winds, and possible lightning and thunder. As these move through, the worst of the weather will last literally a few to several minutes in any one location. Other locations may not see all that much if the line(s) contain(s) broken rather than solid convection. As the low center takes shape quickly, a lobe of wrap-around moisture on its back side may produce showers of rain and higher elevation snow from central and northern Worcester County into southwestern NH, which then would move eastward across the rest of southern NH and possibly northeastern MA as rain showers just before the system departs. With low pressure forming on the region, as you’d imagine, the wind direction will depend on where the low center is relative to any given location at a given time, but wind gusts of above 30 MPH are quite possible in the initial lines of convection, those likely being southerly to westerly winds, and briefly as the system departs, those likely being northwesterly winds. Later this evening and overnight we’ll see quieter weather, dry and chilly with a modest breeze. Expect a dry day on Sunday but with a cool and gusty westerly breeze as we feel the last of eastern Canadian low pressure. One more disturbance being pulled in this circulation will have a bit more independence as it approaches New England, spawning a new surface low near the northern Mid Atlantic Coast, which will then move northeastward, passing just southeast of New England by early Monday. This system will bring a period of rain late Sunday night and early Monday, and this may fall as a mix of rain/snow over interior higher elevations, although no snow accumulation is expected. The rest of Monday will be drier, but breezy and cool as clouds break behind the departing low pressure system. When we get to Tuesday, except a dry but breezy and chilly mid November day between low pressure in the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure in the Great Lakes. While the center of this high likely passes south of our area Wednesday, it will extend far enough north to provide us with a tranquil day that starts rather cold followed by a nice temperature recovery.

TODAY: Lower elevation fog areas dissipating by mid morning, otherwise mostly sunny this morning and increasing clouds west to east after noon. Highs 53-60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH shifting to SE.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy early-mid evening with rain showers and possible thunderstorms moving southwest to northeast across the region, some potentially producing small hail and strong wind gusts, and an additional area of rain showers and higher elevation snow showers possible from central MA to southwestern NH just behind the initial activity exiting as rain showers through southeastern NH and northeastern MA mid evening. Becoming partly cloudy late evening and mostly clear overnight. Lows 36-43. Wind variable 5-15 MPH but short-lived stronger winds with gusts above 30 MPH mid to late evening, becoming NW then W 5-15 MPH late evening and overnight.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 48-55. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Possible rain late evening and overnight which may mix with snow in interior higher elevations. Lows 35-42. Wind variable becoming N to NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. A chance of rain and drizzle favoring eastern areas early morning. Highs 42-49. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 30-37. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 41-48. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 25-30 except 30-35 urban centers and immediate shoreline. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 18-22)

Current expectations are for a breezy and milder November 18 ahead of a cold front from low pressure that will pass north of the region, dragging that front through here by early Friday with only a minor rain shower threat followed by cooler weather and a gusty breeze. Fair weather is expected for the November 20-21 weekend with a chilly start and milder finish. Watching for unsettled weather as low pressure arrives from the southwest at the end of this period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 23-27)

Some medium range guidance has recently presented a “scary” look to this period, which includes Thanksgiving on November 25, and while I feel we will have to watch for impact from one or two low pressure areas, I’m not seeing quite as stormy a pattern as some computer guidance “sees”. With colder air nearby and a general eastern US low pressure trough though, we will have to keep a close eye on it and work on the details going forward.

130 thoughts on “Saturday November 13 2021 Forecast (8:23AM)”

  1. I’ll post the first comment of the day here to say that I think Logan will achieve its first 32 or lower low temperature on November 17.

    1. Happens once in a while. The threat they are looking at is potential damaging wind. Any hail that occurs should be below severe criteria.

      2. Just enough turn in the atmosphere to warrant that outlook. There’s a bit of a misconception that we have more “off season” tornadoes now than we ever have. That is not true. Eric Fisher actually talked about that last night on his weathercast. The sudden increase in observed events coincides directly with a 2011 radar upgrade. In other words, we now see rotation that was previously missed, and since many of those small tornadoes either occurred during dark hours or were very brief and completely obscured by rain, they were not visually sighted either, and just went into the report as “wind damage” and not being counted as tornado. The older radar would see a more “classic” meso set-up with a taller mesocyclone, but so many of these events are occurring in very low levels and with such relatively weak rotation, they were missed before, but are missed no longer…

  4. Thanks TK!

    Agree with your thoughts on today, and that a lot of people will probably be caught off guard by what will be a brief but wild period of weather late this afternoon into this evening. Always expect the unexpected with a disturbance this strong.

    1. Yup! It impacts a relatively small area, when you look at the region as a whole, but where it impacts can get pretty wild for short time. People tend to think of weather as “all-day” but forget that an event’s main impact can be confined to a matter of minutes.

      1. If this was 2 months later, it would probably be one heck of a snow squall regionwide passing through to say the least.

        1. Wouldn’t even have to be two months later. If we had a colder air mass to work with even now, it could happen. And we’ve certainly seen our share of systems like this in the form of snow in later November and early December. Climate-wise, the chances would go up for a system like that to contain snowfall as we get into winter, versus mid November.

    1. Always been a fan. During the “classic” line-up period, did they ever know how to turn relationship difficulties and failures into hit songs. 😉

  12. I am so sick from the booster I can barely walk . I fell like a truck ran over me is this normal & how long does it last . Woke up at 11:30 last night shaking like a leaf . Hope it’s that & not sick as I start the new job on Monday

    1. Wow! So sorry to hear that. Was yours Pfizer or Moderna?

      I received my Moderna booster at 11:20 AM yesterday.
      As of this moment, the only thing I have to report is a slight
      discomfort in my arm at the injection site. Doesn’t bother me at all and I could sleep on that side no trouble.

      Hope these symptoms resolve very quickly for you.

        1. Thank you Vicki. She marches on, but has NOT felt well since the very first Moderna dose. Still not sure if she
          will get the booster. Probably, but with great
          trepidation. Our daughter got her Moderna booster
          yesterday and is quite ill from it.

          1. Oh boy. I’m so sorry to hear this, OS. I sense Mrs OS is not exposed so to me waiting and watching is wise. I am so sorry to hear your daughter is not well. I sure hope she feels better quickly. Im now wondering if I should wait and watch a bit too.

    2. Oh dear. I felt like that after the second vaccine and know a ton who had the same reaction. I think if your nurse said you had a lesser dose, that you have Moderna. Did you react to your other two?

        1. It would be very coincidental. If it makes you more comfortable, you can check with your PCP. Do you have a fever? Mine was 102.something and I have rarely run a fever over 100.5ish

          1. I agree, however, still possible.

            But, the overwhelming odds would favor a reaction
            to the booster.

            SSK you wouldn’t happen to have one of those
            Abbot BinaxNOW COVID-19 Antigen Self Test?
            The are very easy to use and reasonably accurate.

            We try to keep some around just in case. We have a very sick brother-in-law and should something happen, we would want to test ourselves before
            attending any services.

            1. I didn’t know the name of the test until Dave mentioned last evening. My daughter has some just to be safe.

              That is a good suggestion for SSK and I agree it sure is worth checking

  13. 12Z Nam and 12Z HRRR have this system rocketing trough our area around the 6PM hour for Boston. Looks like passage within 1 or 2 hours max.

  14. SSK… Hope you feel better soon!
    I have arm soreness from the booster for about 24 hours and no other side effects.

    I am currently watching the webinar that is the virtual SNE weather conference. Great so far! Dr. Louis Uccellini is currently doing his presentation. This is a perfect talk for those interested in snow storms and modeling.

      1. This guy now, Dave Vallee, is about as good a public speaker as there is. He could describe the drying of paint and make it interesting…

  15. Thanks, TK!

    SSK, I am SO sorry that your booster has thrown you for a loop. I hope it’s short-lived and you’re on your feet real soon, especially for your new job on Monday!

    If anyone out there remembers WBCN, there is a wonderful documentary on Channel 44 tonight at 8 pm about BCN and the changing times in the country from the late ’60s and early ’70s. I highly recommend it. DVR it if you can’t see it live! From the GBH website:

    The amazing, untold story of the radical underground radio station WBCN-FM, set against the dazzling and profound social, political, and cultural changes that took place in Boston and nationally during the late-1960s and early-70s. Told through the actual sights, sounds, and stories of a compelling cast of characters who connected through the radio station, exploding music and countercultural scenes, militant anti-war activism, civil rights struggles, and the emerging women’s and LGBTQ-liberation movements. It’s “the incredible, true story of how a radio station, politics, and rock ‘n’ roll changed everything.”

    Love Fleetwood Mac, too. My favorite is “Silver Springs”…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eDwi-8n054s

    4. I’ve probably mentioned this on here before, but I had a lot of exposure to WBCN via my older brothers, who were big fans. Once upon a time Charles called to do a birthday “wake up call” for one of my brothers, who happened to not be home that morning, so he talked to me for a bit until I put another one of my brothers on the phone.

      When WBCN moved from the top of the Pru to their new studio (at the time) in the summer of 1980, my oldest brother recorded most of the on-air event onto a cassette tape, which we still have. 😉

  16. Thanks guys . I’m out in the field in marshfield wrapping up a job I’m pushing through it . Maybe slight improvement.

    1. Do you have tomorrow off so you can get a good rest for Monday? Even if you don’t, maybe you should just take tomorrow off!!

        1. Excellent! Stay home tomorrow and rest up for Monday. Hopefully your symptoms are only a 24 hour thing. Good luck!

  19. A full fledged tornado outbreak is occurring on Long Island. I’ve counted at least 4 separate TDS’s so far. That’s all bound for southeast New England, definitely stay aware if you’re in that area.

    1. Wouldn’t say I expected an outbreak, but I’m certainly not surprised given the ingredients in place. Time of year is never really a factor in these cases; if you build the right environment, the results will follow. I expect to see a couple more in the next few hours.

  21. Great `BCN stories, CF and TK.

    It’s a great documentary, indeed.

    Perhaps they’ll do a follow-up chapter on `BCN, as the station remained way ahead of its time in the late 70s and even early 80s.

  22. My cousins oldest lives on Long Island. I’ll call my cousin once it has passed. If this isn’t on the news, I don’t want to worry her

  23. Thanks TK.

    Torrential rain and frequent lightning/thunder now here in Coventry CT.

    Pounding heavy snow now as well on both the Killington and Stratton webcams.

  25. Thanks TK!

    SSK – pound water – tons of it. I had a similar reaction to the booster – sick as a dog but only for about 1.5 days post booster – than it departed rapidly. Hope you have the same – mine felt like day 1 of a nasty flu but when it normally turns terrible on day 2 instead my symptoms quickly departed.

    Thanks for keeping me looped in re: line of storms – my son and I are heading back from Concord to Boston but will likely wait to leave until it’s passed. I drove out from Boston yesterday in the storm – no fun!

    2. Thanks . What gets me is I did not have this with full Dose & with a half dose I get this . I’ve been taking Advil but think my wife is going to get Tylenol

  26. Holy moly the line is fairly far from Sutton but the thunder is already loud and rolling. Sky is very dark. Wind picking up

  30. No warning on it, but definitely a tornado crossing from CT into RI right now. Ryan Hanrahan is doing a great job covering these on Twitter if you’re looking for more.

    1. Now covered by a tornado warning. There’s also now a larger severe tstm warning in effect, but there are many notches of rotation within that line that could all produce brief tornadoes. Would treat it as a tornado warning.

  33. Holy crap, I would be taking cover Providence area. Multiple tornado warnings now north and south of the city.

    1. We could have had some. I was too busy txting everyone …especially Scott who was literally surrounded by three cells I don’t know what part of Sutton she is in. It matters.

      1. It was small enough hail that it could have disguised itself well in the large raindrops. Not sure where in Sutton he is relative to you.

  40. Tornado warnings on the cape and Martha’s Vineyard. Yesterday or was it two days….was Nantucket. This is November right?

  45. I have heard from several friends and acquaintances to our north and west…

    I have gotten reports of a period of moderate snow at Lempster NH, sleet in Ashburnham MA, and a snow/rain mix at Gardner MA.

    This is that wrap around moisture and marginally cold enough air on the back side of the developing low noted in the this morning’s discussion.

  46. It was wild here around 5:50. No trampolines, but a lot of little branches. Lightning was frequent and bizarre, for the lack of a better adjective. There was a rapid and noticeable temperature drop to 46º.

    I am hearing that Dighton (south of here) got rocked. I think I heard that power will be out for 4-5 hours on the scanner.

    We drove through fierce winds (probably straight line winds) on the way home from church. They lasted about 1-2 minutes. Ironically, the Scripture readings and the sermon tonight were on the “End of Days!” 🙂

    1. Oh my. The end of that scripture reading must have made for a bit of an uncomfortable ride. Glad you are ok

    2. Also, the emergency alert tone went off on all of our phones about 5:45. That doesn’t happen that often.

      1. Wow. We were hearing alarms throughout the house here also. But those were thunder and thankfully not tornado

  47. Add Fitchburg to the snow list. Just got a video from a friend there – flakes were falling before it moved out.

  51. If those tornadoes are confirmed in CT none of them came with tornado warnings. There was a tornado in Sommers, CT that came without a tornado warning this past summer.

  53. In other news, the medium range guidance came back to earth about the pattern. It lost that really bizarre out of place winter looking stormy pattern that got everyone hyped up after a couple runs. They’re back to something a little more realistic. 😉

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