Wednesday January 12 2022 Forecast (7:26AM)

154 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 11-15)

We’ve made it through the brief but sharp shot of arctic air, and today the temperature will indicate our recovery as it rises above freezing in most of our region, but you’ll need a little patience as it’ll take some time. While it’s already in the 20s to around 30 over Cape Cod with even a few spotty flurries in the area as milder air starts to move in, it’s in the 10s for most of us, but as an uneventful warm front goes by and a south to southwest breeze takes over, we’ll see that temperature rise take place, even with some increase in cloud cover at times. That milder feel to the air will last through Thursday as well, but we’ll still have to deal with a fair amount of cloudiness at times as there will be more moisture in the middle atmosphere. A weak disturbance and a frontal boundary coming along from the northwest may create a touch of light snow Thursday evening, but this will be a minor event at best. During this time an ocean storm will be strengthening south and southeast of New England, and is expected to be mainly a miss, but be close enough to throw its precipitation shield across far southeastern New England with some rain for Cape Cod and the Islands and a bit of rain/snow for the South Shore and possibly down to eastern RI. This would take place mostly during the first half of the day on Friday. Later Friday, as that storm moves away, it will help pull down another shot of arctic air from eastern Canada which will be with us Friday night and Saturday. When we get to Sunday, it will moderate slightly but still expecting a cold day. We’ll be keeping an eye on another storm system to our southwest as it approaches with clouds moving back in during Sunday. More about this system in the next section after the 5-day forecast.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 32-39. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few snow flurries. Lows 20-27. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy through midday with a period of rain Cape Cod / Islands that may end as mix, and a chance of a period of rain and/or snow from the MA South Shore to eastern RI. Breaking clouds later. Highs 35-42 by midday. Temperatures falling later in the day. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, especially in coastal areas.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a snow shower anywhere but snow showers likely Cape Cod / Islands. Lows 5-10 except 10-15 South Coast. Wind N 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 0.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny except partly cloudy with possible snow showers outer Cape Cod. Highs 16-23. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near 0.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 3-8 except 9-14 South Coast. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 23-30. Wind N under 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 17-21)

Watching a storm for MLK Jr Day January 17. Guidance has trended west with the track of this system during the last several runs but the track of the storm is still highly in question, so best wording is rain/mix/snow likely with gusty wind. Dry, colder January 18-19. A weaker system may bring a precipitation threat later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 22-26)

We remain in a pattern where we are vulnerable to storminess with near to below normal temperatures into late January.

154 thoughts on “Wednesday January 12 2022 Forecast (7:26AM)”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Not liking the model trends.

    6z Gfs ensemble mean very tight to the coast, bit not inland. It keeps moving West watching for a correction to the East Fear we won’t get that.

  7. Thank you TK!
    As Bernie Rayno often says, we will see the windshield wiper effect on the models for the next few days. The players are on the board but have yet to come together. Will be fun to watch it all unfold.

  8. If the storm was over the bench on the models everybody would be screaming” it’s goin out to sea” or “a storm over the bench mark 6 days out never materializes”.

  9. Soooooooo. I have a question. I did SOME quick reading about the evolution of weather models. There isn’t a person who posts or reads here who doesn’t understand they do not work well more than three days out…which actually translates more like two days.

    Mark mentioned that despite models that were not as accurate (paraphrasing and sorry if I did it poorly, Mark), it was accurately forecast well over three days. As I recall, it started off of Texas and travelled across the US and then up the coast. ROUGHLY.

    I’ve been thinking about this for a while and his comment prompted me to ask the question. And yes, I am getting to it…

    Are there other means of predicting weather than just relying in models? If so, do those methods not work more than two or three days out?

    1. The short answer to this is yes, you can predict without models, as we had dinner so for a couple centuries before the development and evolution of computer guidance. However, by today’s standards, attempting a complete forecast without analysis of now and examination of prediction tools available, one would be selling themself very short.

      You may be able, under some conditions, to predict short range, maybe out 18 or 24 hours, with some success. Various patterns could make even this exceedingly difficult. And even under normal circumstances, your day 3 forecast without the help of our best aids would be about as reliable as a day 10 forecast is now.

      I hope this helps. 🙂

      1. It does help. Thank you. Maybe we just didn’t expect perfect years ago since I remember many accurate forecasts. Some not so much but then both still hold true.

        1. The expectations have definitely changed over the years. When they started to present 5 day forecasts it was this big new thing, then eventually 7, then 10. And we won’t even bring up AccuWeather’s 60-day thing. In general, without being told, a lot of the public would assume that we can just do these things and they are going to be reasonably accurate. And I think you’re right – our expectations of accuracy were different then too. We payed closest attention to days 1 & 2. Those were done pretty well by good meteorologists who knew the patterns and were among the first to be using satellite info, etc. … If you were to go back and verify day 3 or anything they may have dared talk about beyond that, you’d find they didn’t verify so well., I remember Don Kent speaking about this at the conference I met him at, and how it had changed so much even in the time between his start in the business and his retirement. 🙂

  10. Thanks TK.

    I would have to say the cold blast, though well-forecast, was somewhat underwhelming. Cold, sure, but it’s basically impossible in today’s climate to get what would be considered “impressive” cold by historical standards. If you look at where we were versus most of the records… it’s not in the same ballpark, nor is it usually.

    Ensemble trends overnight were strongly supportive of an inland cutter for early next week. Not even so much just in the low pressure tracks, although those shifted west also. But the upper level pattern on about days 4-5 on the 0z/6z EPS/GEFS much more matches a cutter composite than a coastal storm, a big change from previous.

    However, I would definitely not say all hope is lost if you’re looking for winter weather with that system. Foremost is the time frame of course. We’ll see plenty more shifting in the models. And there will be a pretty cold air mass in place ahead of it which at least leaves the door open for a front end thump, even on a track close to the coast or slightly inland.

    1. Agree 100%. This was FAR from impressive cold. We’ve had a few impressive periods of cold in recent memory. Late December 2017, early January 2018 comes to mind. Sustained. The Charles froze over solid, which it has not with this particular Arctic intrusion, by the way. I also recall lengthy periods of cold in 2011 and 2015 – along with lots of snowfall. There was also one cold snap, I believe in 2008 that was mostly cold (and not much snow). Prior to that, I remember very cold outbreaks in January of 2003 and 2004. Much colder than what we endured this week, and more sustained.

  11. I think the inland or westward track should have some credence.

    Looks to me, that at the time the southern stream closed low is moving across the southern Mississippi Valley, much further to the north, a piece of the polar vortex is moving mostly due south along the western Hudson Bay coast.

    Thus, its almost a full latitude trof and thus, the flow is significantly backed in the eastern US allowing the closed low to sharply turn up the east coast and dragging its associated surface low well to the west.

    1. Yup. At this point, I don’t see it any other way. I HOPE it changes,
      but I wouldn’t bet the house on that happening 🙂

  13. I didn’t get the impression from any reliable media that this arctic blast was going to be overly impressive. If I was just a casual viewer I would have come away with it thinking that we were just going to have a very cold day, which we did.

    I didn’t hear any talk about records and we all knew that this was going to be a very brief visit. Perhaps I’m the one missing something. 😉

    1. Perhaps it depending upon the media outlet.

      I watched channel 5 and wankum made it very clear that
      it was no where near record territory. No issue with Wankum.
      He handeled it perfectly. Btw, I am coming around to actually liking this guys broadcasts.

      However, the news section was quite another story.
      They made it sound like it was the end of the world.
      I was screaming at the TV, it was so bad!!!

      3. Old salty is that you !!! You are liking MW. He’s a great meteorologist I’m glad you are going around lol .

    2. I guess my comment was more a commentary on climate than on media coverage, and the forecast itself was definitely good. I know the media was covering the cold, but can’t much speak to the quality of the coverage. But when’s the last time we had “impressive” cold? February 2015? We routinely blow high temperature records out of the water every year, usually more in the cold or shoulder seasons as opposed to summer. Very rare to see it happen any time of year with low temperatures.

      1. I took your comment as you intended. And it had been true that record cold, while not absent, has certainly been far less prominent.

        Thanks WxW!

      2. I’m not sure I’m following. Does that indicate that our low temps are rising just as our high temps are ?

        And I took what you said prior as you meant it also. As you know, I always enjoy your posts

  15. Any “modeling” available that can help in being predictive with the Pats on Saturday? I don’t mean in regards to weather but in getting through Buffalo to another game beyond!

  17. Thanks TK.

    FYI The Canadian model having trouble again today….

    12z Canadian Modeling Delays Subscribe
    Investigating – Canadian Modeling Center is experiencing problems with their supercomputer, resulting in delays upwards of 2 hours for 12z runs.

    1. Very interesting. More interesting is my son in law said before they let Cam go that if they went with Mac they would be here.

      His reasons were knowledge base. Despite the fact that Macs twin brothers name is Cam, we know what I based that same view on.

      Thanks for sharing this.

  21. Yeah, there’s just nothing in the northern stream flow that nudges/directs the southern stream closed low further south and east.

  22. Pretty impressive low-level jet. 75-80 knots at 850 mb.

    If the inland track verifies, the warm sector with better mixing probably going to need some kind of wind advisories for late Sunday night into early Monday morning.

  24. I am not sold on these model solutions yet at all. 36 hours ago most were out to sea. The features responsible for this storm are still in a poorly sampled area. We will definitely continue to see fluctuations in the storm track as we are still 4-5 days out.

    This thing has no more room to move any farther west. As it is the northern stream energy comes down from the Dakotas and MN, dives almost due south to LA, and then makes a U turn and heads up to central PA? The track is almost V shaped.

    I can see how a coastal hugger happens in this setup but I think the models have over corrected west and I believe that west trend ends today.

    1. You’re going to have to hope the PNA isn’t as positive, so the western ridge isn’t as strong and that the piece of the polar vortex doesn’t move south as projected.

      I think too many bigger atmospheric pieces working against this scenario, but pattern afterward hopeful for some intensifying clippers, if they track correctly.

      1. Yes I agree but it only takes a few subtle changes in the ridging/trough out west, high placement to the north in eastern CA, etc to result in a 100-150 miles shift in the track at this lead time. That would have a fairly large impact on weather outcomes here, even on the coast. Still ivery much in play at 5 days out.

    2. Hope you are correct, but being the pessimist I am, I don’t think there is much snow in Eastern Sections. A true coastal hugger
      would hopefully still provide a good dump to NNE.

      At this point, I wouldn’t be surprised if this track NW into
      the Lakes. 🙂

      1. Its practically originating from the western Great Lakes…it would basically have to do a U turn and reverse itself 🙂

    1. I posted that above. Going to be two hours late. That’s OK, I don’t need to see another cutter modeled right now.

    1. Right, interior
      And it would be almost certainly washed away by the deluge to follow it.

      DISGUSTING!(@(!*@#(*!(@#*(!*@()#*!()@*#)(!*#()*!)

  28. I hope this changes because I am getting ill over this.

    As Mark posted eariler, only a few days ago, this system
    was progged to be a MISS out to Sea and well off shore.

    2. I actually like the UKMET overall, not that bad of a model. If you look at comparisions the UKMET was up there with the EURO and GFS over the Summer. Not sure how its been doing lately.

  31. TK, you are correct. The Arctic blast wasn’t advertised by anyone as record-smashing. But, the hype on how cold it would get for a 30 hour period was overdone, in my humble opinion.

    To me, in the past several years, it’s the lack of staying power of cold snaps that’s noticeable. We have our cold days or 30-36 hours of cold. But, it’s not sustained.

  38. Euro blows chinks
    With East to ESE wind, even while cold enough above it rains or mixes at the coast thanks to that warm ocean. preventing a front end thump.

  40. Wouldn’t be so fast to push the cold out. That’s a lot of cold air that will hold in place for a while. If it’s a coastal track then we could 75% as snow even to the coast. If it’s a GL then forget about it.

    1. We’d be more likely to push the cold air out easily upstairs and be left with it at the surface. That’d be trouble .. ice trouble.

  41. Well, if you want to see how much uncertainty still remains just look at the snowfall EPS 00z
    For Bedford MA
    50
    16 members 11+ inches
    17 members 5-10 inches
    9 members 2-4.
    8 members less than 2.

  42. Also wouldn’t sleep in Friday’s system. Has been trending closer. Anyone in eastern sections could get a little surprise.

        1. Thanks Vicki. How is your sister in law? As far as the snow is concerned, on the contrary. My grandma loved the snow. Snow in the air graveside would be the perfect tribute.

          1. Awwww. I know exactly what you mean. How special.

            I have not talked to my brother today. I try to wait till after dinner to break up the long nights for him.

            How is your son’s teacher ?

    1. I replied to your reply just so you don’t miss it. It’s waaaay up the blog with all the comments. 😉

  44. NBC is about to Zoom interview my mom while CNBC waits outside for their turn. This is so funny.. CNBC was a last minute addition to today’s schedule. My brother is handling today’s craziness. I”m off to the Bruins game that was supposed to be March 21 then rescheduled to tonight instead…

  46. I have globe lights in my front windows. I had them set to come on at 4:30. I just realized how might lighter it now is at this time.

  50. Thanks, TK!

    The story about your Mom keeps getting better and better! Earlier in the week, I googled your Mom’s name, filtered it by “News” and more than 36 different stories came up about the letter, a few in languages that I could recognize and some I couldn’t! One of the stories was written in Italian from La Repubblica in Rome!

    You Rock, Mom!

    Go Bruins!

    3. Ronnie Spector’s 60s and early 70s career was too early for me to know.

      Was introduced to her when she was featured on an Eddie Money song in the 80s.

  54. A little worried about the high wind watch for southeast coastal MA Friday night.

    Lose power even for a few hours when its going below 10F, not good.

  56. Continuing to gain more attention to Friday night …

    1042 mb high trying to nose into New England, intensifying low going sub 990mb out in the ocean and plenty of cold air ready to crash in.

    Sounds like a recipe for several hours of strong wind in eastern areas. But with the plummeting temps, any wind related power outages would be a problem.

    1. How Far East, Tom. I did ask my SIL if we have gas for the gen…er…a….tors

      Darn but that is a difficult word for me to say aloud

      2. I think it will be breezy inland, 10-15 mph with gusts 20-30, but with temps falling under 10F, it will be harsh.

        Closer to the coast, the frictionless ocean should deliver the wind that builds up over the ocean right onto the coastal towns, so, Cape Ann, south shore and Cape Cod, should be very windy and gusts 40-50 mph.

        Building breeze starting midday Friday, then gusty Friday evening thru Saturday morning as the cold pours in and the best pressure gradient exists.

    2. Well I’ll be. Does it get better than this. This world desperately needs a positive message and it arrived in the form of a letter to an amazing woman and family 76 years later

  59. Saw this on Twitter tonight:

    Looking at the 18z GEFS is another great example in the continuing uncertainty – the mean shifted quite a bit SE.

    There’s still a prominent cluster of tracks near SE PA/Delmarva, but without the far inland tracks of the 12z run, and a new cluster of 40N/70W benchmark tracks.

    2. Weather channel had one out two days ago on twitter. Should have seen the responses lol. Post has since been removed.

  63. 00z GEFS is WAY southeast of the operational run. Not even close. Mean is an offshore, near benchmark track and all but a few ensemble members are east of the operational:

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=eus&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2022011300&fh=114

    This to me this remains a big red flag that the track is too far west on the operational and will end up farther southeast to a track that is more favorable for a colder solution in SNE.

    Shortwave comes on shore in the Pacific NW tomorrow. Should see better sampling and potentially some changes in the model runs by this time tomorrow night (hopefully for the better).

  64. The operational GFS has been an extreme western outlier compared to all of the Ensemble members for 4 consecutive runs now. TK and I were discussing this tonight, and both of us can’t ever remember that happening this many runs in a row. This tells me that the GFS is completely lost right now, and to completely ignore it.

    FWIW, I’ve been a believer in the NBM for quite a while now, and it has a general 3-6″ N/W of I-95, with 5-8″ from Worcester County into southern NH. This is not that dissimilar to the GFS Ensemble mean.

    1. The GFS op has been an outlier vs. its ensembles, but the fact that the 00z Euro and GGEM have the same identical inland track as the GFS op. concerns me.

      I also took a look at the GGEM ensembles and they are much closer to the western operational tracks of the three models than the GFS ensembles are.

      Additional concern: while the shortwave over the Pacific is not on shore yet, they have been sending recon. aircraft out over the ocean to collect data. There were 25 drops today which should have been feeding the 00z models.

      https://twitter.com/JeremyDeHart53d/status/1481489700892209152?s=20

  65. 6z GFS ensemble mean is about at the benchmark. Tis a beautiful sight to behold. Ah, but is it real? .Let’s see what the 12z run has to say. 6z operational still tracks west, but a tad better than it has been. 0z euro and cmc blah blah blah

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