Saturday February 12 2022 Forecast (9:22AM)

110 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 12-16)

We all know that our weather can display significant variety or big change over short periods of time, and this weekend will be such an example, as we eye record warmth today and talk about cold and snow for parts of the region tomorrow into early Monday. First, the warmth. High pressure sits offshore and a healthy southwesterly air flow will be blowing very mild air into the region today, and despite a fair amount of cloud cover and lingering icy snow cover on the ground, we’ll challenge our record highs for the day, set in 1999. But two cold fronts are set to pass through the region tonight, one this evening, one a little later at night. The first one may trigger a rain shower, the second one brings the coldest air in and sets up a lane for some moisture to move northeastward into the region as a wave of low pressure develops on the boundaries to our south and moves rapidly northeastward off the coast. This will be a generally minor snow event from about the I-495 belt southeastward, but as the low goes by our region the wind will be from the northeast for a good number of hours Sunday evening to Monday morning, resulting in ocean-effect snow along the South Shore of MA through Cape Cod, where additional accumulation is expected. Finally, the wind shifts to the northwest and ends the ocean effect snow and we’re just left with a very cold and dry Valentine’s Day on Monday. Look for another cold day Tuesday, maybe a tiny moderation, as the core of the cold will have departed but we’ll still be getting a polar feed from Canada. A weak disturbance moving through on Tuesday may create a few snow showers. High pressure will follow and sit overhead with a cold morning Wednesday before shifting offshore with a noticeable moderation developing during the day, along with continued dry weather.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 48-53 South Coast, 54-59 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy evening with a slight chance of a rain shower. Mostly cloudy overnight with a chance of light snow pre-dawn. Lows 20-27. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts evening, diminishing and shifting to N under 10 MPH overnight.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with periods of snow, favoring areas east of I-495 / I-84. Temperatures steady 20-27. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH, strongest Cape Cod.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with periods of snow, favoring eastern coastal areas and Cape Cod. A few moderate ocean-effect snow bands possible MA South Shore through Cape Cod. Snow accumulation for the evening, dusting / coating west of I-95 belt, coating to 1 inch I-95 belt, 1-3 inches southeastern MA including Cape Cod with local bands of 3-5 inches possible. Lows 18-25. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Early clouds and snow showers MA South Shore to Cape Cod, then clearing Sunny elsewhere. Highs 23-30. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers possible. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 6-13. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 17-21)

Another up / down pattern with a strong warm up February 17, a cold front bringing rain that may end as snow showers, and a return of colder air February 18. Fair, chilly weather mid period. Moderating temperatures and some unsettled weather possible later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 22-26)

Active pattern expected with a couple unsettled weather threats heading through late February with more up-and-down temperatures.

110 thoughts on “Saturday February 12 2022 Forecast (9:22AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Here are a few re-posts from just a while ago on the previous blog.

    JpDave
    February 12, 2022 at 9:23 AM

    Strange snow map from the 12Z NAM

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2022021212&fh=51&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
    Reply

    JpDave
    February 12, 2022 at 9:25 AM

    12Z 3KM NAM snow map

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=snku_acc&rh=2022021212&fh=51&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
    Reply
    JpDave
    February 12, 2022 at 9:27 AM

    12Z HRRR snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_acc&rh=2022021212&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
    Reply

    1. This is the one I pointed out yesterday. This model does a great job with this types of events.

      I think the map that verifies will be a little closer to NWS’s “high end” map, at least for the South Shore.

      1. Really interesting.
        Once in a while depending on exact conditions, I have seen these OES bands move into Boston. I have seen Heavy OES
        in JP before. Again, not often, but every now and then.

        On that map, it comes very very close to my area. Here’s hoping it gets in here for at least a period of time.

        Will be watching tomorrow with great interest.

        BTW, some of these models are bringing snow in here
        as early as 3 or 4 in the morning tomorrow. That would not be the OES, but over running I presume.

        Here is the HRW=FV3 loop that I think clearly depicts the 2 phases of the precipitation. 1st is frontal and overrunning and the 2nd is the OES.

        https://ibb.co/cgWkFYF

        1. Well maybe not as clearly as I thought the first time I looked at. But it sure shows on the snow map. 🙂

  3. Thank you, TK.

    The very mild winter across large portions of Europe continues. Most of England has barely had a light frost this entire winter. My daughter says that in London the temperature hit 31F once. In the Netherlands, a very similar story, especially for coastal areas. While inland regions have had a few nights of upper 20s since December 1st, the country has mostly been frost-free. Perhaps tonight most of Holland will hit 32F and a few locales a few degrees colder, but that’s it. A return to showers, wind, and 45 for a high and 39F for a low is in the forecast by Monday or Tuesday. Some flowers are blooming in London (started more than a week ago!), and they’re coming up in the Netherlands (about to bloom; snow drops, daffodils).

    1. By the way, it’s not a good sign that much of Europe has been seeing such mild winters for so long. This isn’t just a short-term trend. It’s been several decades, really, with a few sporadic bursts of winter but generally nothing more than that.

  16. Cemetery folks down here in RI tell me frost is eight to ten inches thick. I work for a funeral home down here so first hand knowledge.

    1. Interesting. Thank you. Do you know if they begin measuring at the surface; or because of melt, do they begin the measure X amount of inches below the surface.

    1. With ratio that is “about” 3 inches of snow in 3 hours or 1 inch
      per hour. Nice Moderate snow for 3 hours. Sure will look
      like Winter on the South Shore.

  22. 59 at the Airport. New record high for the date. Waiting to see if that 59 is official. It comes from MesoWest.

    62 at Norwood!

    Made it! 60 here in JP!

    1. I can remember a Feb vacation in the Early to mid 60s that was warm the entire week. Many days touching 60 or a tad higher.

      1. I may night remember that because I didn’t have kids so wasn’t as excited that they could play outside all day 🙂

  25. Thanks TK!

    New record at Logan today. We are certainly to the time of year where sunshine + dry air = huge model cold bias. We’ve been seeing it all week.

    I’m in a similar boat to TK regarding tomorrow/tomorrow night. We’re definitely seeing the “flat” wave solution come to fruition, but ocean effect could be a big player. Probably a nuisance event for most but there could be a 3-6+” bullseye on the South Shore…

    1. I think 6+ is pushing it now & I definitely do not expect that here in pembroke ( western Plymouth county )

      2. I think any 6+ would be isolated, but your area stands one of the better chances for the higher end amounts. Would say around 2-4 for you with some chance it comes in a little higher.

    1. This map would be too high for areas from Boston north and west because I think they were taking into account the remote chance the synoptic snow was heavier than anticipated, but South Shore to Cape Cod, certainly not. 3-5, 3-6, even a couple amounts over 6 inches, pure fluff, tomorrow night. It’s going to be a busy evening for snow removal contractors in that area. Not like we had to face in a “big” event, but one of those events where you keep getting feather flakes that just want to keep piling up.

      I have heard people say it won’t accumulate because today is warm. Wrong. One warm day is not going to warm that pavement enough. It gets cold again. It stays cold. The snow falls mostly at night. It’ll pile up easily.

      1. I certainly agree 100%. I just posted that map for kicks.

        The HWRF-F3 and the HRDPS both clearly show the OES area well. I am surprised the HRRR doesn’t seem to show it as well. It has it, but more to the East. We’ll see what the 18Z version is.

        I just wish the OES could make it up to Boston. Does not currently look like it, but here’s hoping.

        1. I could be totally wrong that’s why I stick with you guys but.that’s gone up an awful lot since this morning , I’m still not even melted here after these warm days

          1. Melting here and the layer is softening. Kids just shoveled the deck so I can get out to sit at night. I also managed to take the manger apart and they carried it out to the bulkhead. Snow cover is soft but still an ice layer underneath and I don’t dare walk on it

  29. According to MesoWest, Logan is now up to 61!!

    Not totally unheard of this time of year, but not exactly common. 🙂

    1. I remember a string of 60+ degree days during February vacation in 1983 just days after a major snowstorm. You could hear the snow melting. 😉 That was a warm stretch that lasted much longer than this one-day warm-up.

        1. Let’s try this again. TK just ignore posts in moderation. Absolutely my fault.

          My comment was in 1983 we had a very hot summer too

          1. Will do, and yes we did! Remarkable weather year and shaped a lot of my love for weather and many weather memories. 🙂

  32. NOAA has 60 for Logan. We are 60

    There sure are lots of winter days with higher temps. I recall a Christmas Day in maybe 1965 that was Into the 60s. It is the consistently high recording setting periods that worry me.

    https://ibb.co/qMz0T4G

  38. Record high temperatures today to (probably) Winter Advisories hoisted for tomorrow through early Monday? Wow!

    1. One might be tempted to say ONLY IN NEW ENGLAND, but that would be a false statement. These wild swings happen in the Rockies and Mid West all the time. 🙂

      1. Awwwwwwww. I wanted to say that 🙁 So….only in New England, the Rockies, and Midwest and maybe another place or two 😉

  43. If this happens second straight year on super bowl Sunday there will be accumulating snow. Last year was more with 8-12 inches of fluffy snow.

    1. I like those #’s. I had 3-5 initially, but adding 1-2 inches to that with the OES + fluff factor. No problem.

      There are going to be a lot of contractors doing clearing Sunday evening when they’d rather be watching a football game…

  51. The first 15 days of March will ensure that Worcester finishes ahead of Boston on snow. 😉 Lock it in! 😉

      1. Me too. I’m a stats lover. But from a met. perspective I do think Worcester will catch up and win the race. 🙂

        Has to do with my outlook for the first part of March. We’ll see!

  55. Snow now more moderate in Swampscott. Grass and my balcony are coated. Side streets also coated. Drove on 128 earlier and it is SLICK. Drivers going way too fast!

  56. Snow sure looks to be Moderate now. Vis looks to be about
    1/2 mile. Coming down pretty good and it is a real fluffy snow.

      1. I’m underneath a yellowish band. Need to take a snow measurement. I thought I might see an inch. Now I am wondering if I’ll be closer to 3.

  57. An overachiever where I am as the thinking was a coating for my area. If everything pans out when this is over Boston will have more snow than they had last winter when this is over.

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