Wednesday February 16 2022 Forecast (7:59AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 16-20)

At dawn today we observed another wide temperature range after a clear and calm night, with lows in the single digits above zero over most inland locations except lower teens in urban centers and ranging up to the upper teens to lower twenties at the coastline. Today, we head up to a higher level than yesterday as we see a sun/cloud mix ahead of an approaching warm front. This front will pass by tonight and prevent the temperature from falling. In fact, it will hold steady in the evening then rise later at night. By Thursday, we’ll be immersed in a southwesterly air flow that will continue to drive the temperature up. While this is going on, low pressure will be traveling northeastward along a sharp frontal boundary that will be drifting southeastward toward our area. The low center will travel from Ohio through northwestern PA, northwestern NY, and across northwestern New England Thursday night and early Friday, eventually accelerating the frontal boundary across our region during the morning hours on Friday. Widespread rain showers and gusty winds will occur during this process. Strongest wind gusts will be in the coastal plain, and additional strong gusts may occur right with the frontal passage. As we get to midday and afternoon Friday, look for dry weather to return but continued windy conditions, with falling temperatures. So an upside down temperature day where the highs occur before the sun comes up, and it goes down after. Colder air becomes established Friday night, and a low pressure area will come rapidly along from the west on Saturday, its center to pass to our north, but its energy spread out along a trailing trough that brings the chance of snow showers to our region, reinforcing colder air for Saturday night and Sunday, which will be dry as high pressure slips by just to the south.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 37-44. Wind SE-S increasing to 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 35-42 evening, slowly rising overnight. Wind S-SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially South Coast.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 46-53 South Coast, 53-60 elsewhere late day. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with numerous to widespread rain showers. Thunderstorms possible. Temperatures rise slightly to 50-57 South Coast, 58-65 elsewhere. Wind SW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts of 35-45 MPH inland and 45-55 MPH coastal areas.

FRIDAY: Cloudy start with numerous rain showers, ending west to east. Sun/cloud mix midday-afternoon. Temperatures steady 50-57 South Coast and 58-65 elsewhere early, then falling steadily to the 40s during the day. Wind SW 15-25 MPH with gusts above 30 MPH, shifting to NW.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Passing snow showers possible. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 8-15. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, but diminishing overnight. Wind chill below 0 at times.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 27-34. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 21-25)

A disturbance will pass by to the north on February 21 but it will be dry. Frontal boundary sits just to the south then moves into the region as we move through next week with a couple low pressure areas impacting the region with unsettled weather, but too early to determine details of timing and possible precipitation type(s).

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 26 – MARCH 2)

Active pattern expected with a couple unsettled weather threats and variable temperatures as a boundary separating warmth to the south and cold air to the north sits nearby or over our region.

56 thoughts on “Wednesday February 16 2022 Forecast (7:59AM)”

  10. The frigid weather continues at the winter olympic games in Beijing. A lot of the skiers have described the snow as feeling like styrofoam, very grippy and not conducive to speed, especially with regard to cross country events.

    I’m wondering if this may be the coldest winter olympic games (average temp for the entire time) since the winter games began. I’m betting yes.

  11. Thank you, TK.

    Someone asked a few days ago why WHW is not secure. I am now getting warnings that it is not secure from norton and other sources. I had noticed before and forgot to look into it

    I believe it is because whw is only HTTP and not HTTPS. I’m surprised the site is still up and running. I upgraded websites and blogs I manage years ago. It is an easy fix for your web person.

  13. I am beyond happy that Florida will be sitting under a strong SE ridge most of next week.

    85F-88F with mid/upper 60F dewpoints. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

      1. YES !!

        Btwn Tampa and Fort Myers.

        Yahoo !!!!

        No snow, greenery, palm trees, heat, humidity, warm sun, beach, tropical drinks.

      1. We were on the east coast of Florida last week. The first three items on your list matched up! 😉 After that…some warm sun, but also quite a bit of cool overcast with wind. A great getaway, though. I’m glad you’re getting a vacation just the way you like it!

    1. Right on schedule – the midweek warming trend. Peaks Thursday night / early Friday morning then it’s back to the chill for the weekend. We may have a few potent snow squalls around here Saturday PM. Looks like a pretty vigorous disturbance to pass by.

  16. TK mentioned the cold at this year’s Winter Olympics. He’s right. It’s been both colder and snowier than most Games in the past 40 years. There have been quite a number of Winter Olympics marred by too much warmth. Lake Placid in 1980 was mild, as was Calgary in 1988, and pretty much every Winter Games since then, including Sochi in 2014 (exceptionally mild). One of the issues, I think, is that they hold the Games in mid to late February, which I’ve always found problematic. I think January is a safer bet.

  17. Familiar theme this week, with the melting. Though there isn’t nearly as much water content as there was last week, the puddles and slick spots prevented me from running outdoors today, and will likely do so tomorrow, too. Much easier to run – firmer grip; less likely to fall – on compacted snow than slushy puddles of cold water. In fact, besides heat and humidity there’s nothing worse than running through slushy puddles of cold water. My feet get soaked through, and that’s a colder and more unpleasant feeling than running on compacted snow when it’s 18F outside.

  18. TK – are you still thinking the winds tomorrow will be somewhat understated and for a brief period only? Hope I have remembered your comment from yesterday correctly. Thanks.

    1. It’ll be windy all day, but I think the period of time we see the peak gusts will only be a few hours tomorrow late night / early hours of Friday, up until and including the frontal passage. There will be some pretty good wind gusts behind it too, for a couple hours, before it starts to diminish a little bit.

      Stays quite windy Saturday, but nothing really to write home about.

      1. I know they planned on the manmade snow, which obviously can be groomed to perfection for winter sports in that climate, and then the irony of the natural snow screwing things up. 😉

        I also agree with your last statement completely.

        1. Man mad is surely better here than it was. Article said they started making snow last November. Color me surprised

          Do we have a new peach background?

  20. Not weather related but If anyone is interested, 30 ish years ago there was a major die off event of Diadema annularis the long spine sea urchin, which use to be a very dominant algae eater on reefs until a disease nearly wiped them out. the population is at about 12% of pre-80s levels Caribbean wide with many areas lower than that but there are also areas higher than that such as here in the Virgin islands. Unfortunatly a week ago I came across this while snorkeling. Then today found out from a dive boat captain that he has been seeing it at several of his companies dive sites. Climate change, over fishing, disease and other anthropogenic factors are stressing the heck out of the reefs and all are linked. We do not know what disease is going through these urchins as it is just now getting attention. Stupid me didn’t say anything until this week as I only saw it at one site. last week and two weeks before that only saw a couple. https://twitter.com/Souza101Matt/status/1494006172692762636

  22. On the 6:00 pm WBZ-TV news, there was a police incident in Fitchburg showing totally bare ground and following that, another incident in Quincy showing lots of snow on the ground. How often in February would viewers see something like that?

    2. Not too often, but it actually did happen a few years ago too.

      But this year, Worcester will catch up and pass Boston in snowfall, and finish ahead of them.

    3. It would be Interesting.

      We are about half the distance from Worcester that Fitchburg is and we have a solid snow cover. We did lose a good portion of it today…..still all white

  23. We will have enough hours above freezing and high enough moisture to wipe out all but the snow piles by Friday.

  24. The second half of next week and into next weekend looks like a wintry mess on the GFS with a couple of separate storms.

    1st storm Tue/Wed looks mild, but may start as a mix across the interior on Tuesday.

    2nd storm late Thu/Fri is rather wintry with a decent amount of snow.

    It has another one the following week that could be messy as well.

    Temperatures look rather chilly after the middle of next week.

    It has support from the Ensemble as well for all of the above. Now we’ll see if it actually happens. It was only a few days ago that it looked warm on the GFS + Ensembles in about a week to 10 days,

      1. Well I had blood tests done ordered by 3 different doctors so I’m not sure I have any blood left, but otherwise everything is fine. 😉

  27. Parts of Ontario and Quebec will be experiencing a rather intense ice storm. Not like the epic ice storm of 1998 that ravaged that region, but still. Lots of accretion of ice, sleet, and freezing rain.

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