Thursday February 17 2022 Forecast (10:08AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 17-21)

A lot of activity in the weather department for us in the coming days, both in the short range, and beyond, but first we tackle the next five days, starting with a warm one today! We’re immersed in a strong southwesterly air flow now, with some areas having enjoyed some nice sunshine this morning, but eventually clouds becoming dominant as we remain in a warm, windy air mass with temperatures climbing right into this evening. A strong cold front will be moving toward us from the northwest, and a ripple of low pressure moving up along it, passing to our northwest, will finally accelerate this boundary through our region Friday morning. Tonight and early Friday we’ll see widespread rain showers along with gusty winds, so a wet and windy ending to our brief warm spell is a certainty. Once the front goes by, the winds shift, stay gusty, and the temperature goes down Friday. It does look like the wind and dry air will be able to take care of drying most of the ground before the temperature goes well below freezing at night, so icy patches will be limited. Saturday, a vigorous disturbance will cross the region with a chance of snow showers and snow squalls, except rain or snow showers closer to the South Coast. This briefly reinforces the cold air for late Saturday to early Sunday, but quick moving features means high pressure will already be sliding south of the region during Sunday and we’ll have a temperature recovery from a cold morning to a tolerable afternoon, with even further moderation for Presidents Day on Monday as high pressure slides off the Atlantic Coast to our south.

TODAY: Areas of sun until midday otherwise becoming mostly cloudy. Highs 46-53 South Coast, 53-60 elsewhere late day. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with numerous to widespread rain showers arriving from west to east overnight. Thunderstorms possible. Temperatures rise slightly to 50-57 South Coast, 58-65 elsewhere. Wind SW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts of 35-45 MPH inland and 45-55 MPH coastal areas.

FRIDAY: Cloudy start with numerous rain showers, ending west to east. Sun/cloud mix midday-afternoon. Temperatures steady 50-57 South Coast and 58-65 elsewhere early, then falling steadily to the 40s during the day. Wind SW 15-25 MPH with gusts above 30 MPH, shifting to NW.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing, shifting to W.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Passing snow showers/squalls possible except rain or snow showers South Coast. Highs 30-37. Wind W10-20 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NW.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 8-15. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing overnight. Wind chill below 0 at times.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY (PRESIDENTS DAY): Partly sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 22-26)

A boundary will sit in our region for most of next week. Two low pressure systems should impact the area, the first early in this period, favoring a track to the north with rain favored, the second later in the period with an uncertain track and more possibility of a variety of precipitation. Variable temperatures, mildest early in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 27 – MARCH 3)

Active pattern expected with a couple unsettled weather threats and variable temperatures as a boundary separating warmth to the south and cold air to the north sits nearby or over our region.

85 thoughts on “Thursday February 17 2022 Forecast (10:08AM)”

    1. They call this “fool’s spring” here in New England. 😉

      It goes: Winter, Fool’s Spring, Second Winter, Spring of Deception, Third Winter, Mud Season, Actual Spring (which lasts about 5 days), and then Summer. 😉

  3. I know I have asked this before but what do you consider Natick? We don’t seem coastal and maybe not inland. Just trying to get feel for top winds. Thanks TK.

  5. Thanks TK. Quick question about TV Mets. How much pressure is on individual Mets to tow the company forecast for an event like our last storm? If one person feels differently, is there any freedom to mention that or will viewers feel either confused or like station is covering all the bases?

    1. That is a most excellent question for which I have no answer.
      I am sure TK will have some thoughts on the matter.

    2. Well…
      The forecasters definitely have freedom to express their meteorological opinions but if you are feeling, for example only, that a hyped up storm via the news directors is not going to be that big a deal you have to find a way to work in your thoughts about the event but still not sounding like you are going against the “script”. Most of the broadcasters we have in this market are quite good at that… I would not want to be in their position. I think at this stage of the game though, most of the public is wise enough to know the difference between hype and reality. We’ve been inundated with it long enough that you have to be pretty ignorant not to know. And if people can’t figure it out by now, it’s on them. Still, I think these stations have a responsibility to stick to truth over hype, yet the business / competitive set up doesn’t allow this to happen.

    3. Pete told me a few years ago (when he was with 7) that corporate wants them to be first….in maps, in 10 day, in everything. I think TK is correct that they have figured a way around it while still complying.

      That is why I say repeatedly to listen carefully to their wording. It is why I react if domrind is critical or questioning. I know the pressure they are under and I know it goes against their views. As TK said ….I wouldn’t want to be in their shoes.

      BTW Ryan is slowly moving from the time out I had him in. 😉

  10. After a strong (gale force) storm the other day, the Netherlands is facing another even stronger (severe gale) storm tonight. Sustained wind (average wind speeds) will be between 47 and 58mph across much of the coastal region, with higher gusts (as high as 70mph), of course. Even inland sustained winds will be in the 38 to 46mph range, with higher gusts, as high as 58mph.

    These are really powerful (mostly) wind storms, which take some getting used to as we don’t have these kinds of events on a regular basis. The wind just howls all night. Rather incredible. It’s also one of several reasons trees don’t grow nearly as tall as they do here. And, they’re even shorter in places like Scotland (even more wind).

    2. While there are delays at the airports due to severe gale, planes do land. And, I’ve been a passenger quite a number of times during such landings. The approach and landing itself is stomach-churning. I don’t even dare look outside at the wings of the Boeing or Airbus flapping fairly violently as you’re, say, 300 feet up in the air and about to land.

      It’ll be my luck that in March when I go to England there will be a storm upon landing. When I’m in the middle of these landings I resign myself to the idea that this could very well be it – my body strewn across a Heathrow landing strip – but I don’t forget to remember to recount the many good things that happened in my life.

      1. I have been on a plane like that before. Pretty nerve racking.
        I saw one land on the adjacent runway and it was flapping back and forth as alternating wing tips approached the runway.
        On the final approach, I thought the wing was going to hit the runway and who knows what would have happened.

  13. Lot of snow here now in pembroke has melted ( still around ) but it took a big hit & we had a solid snow pack from Sunday’s event .

  16. The Dutch aren’t known to be verbose. They get right to the point in their weather forecast (I’ve translated it; forgive me if it’s a bit clunky, translating is VERY difficult) even if you’re totally bilingual.

    “On Friday, the storm named Eunice will cause extremely stormy weather in the afternoon and evening. At sea and along the coast there will be a severe gale (9-10 Beaufort) and in a large part of the country [Netherlands] there will be a gale with very strong wind gusts (100-120 km/h). The wind can get even stronger on the Wadden Islands [chain of islands in the Northwest of the country]. The wind will create dangerous conditions.”

    The latter sentence is an understatement. Practically every time there is loss of life. Often incidents like a biker going to school (most of the nation’s children bike or walk to school) and getting hit by an uprooted tree or even a sign post. Schools do not close for storms like these, which does raise some questions, I must say.

      1. Well let’s not verify it before we get there… HOWEVER, the take-away with some messy looking runs on the GFS is that there is some ensemble support, and a glance at the trend on the indices say “pay attention”. Still looks like the stubborn kid on the playground may be the MJO – but there are ways around that.

  18. Early sign of spring is the witch hazel that hardly ever fails to bloom in February, except in 2011 and 2015. Also, on my walk today, I heard (but did see) a red-winged blackbird. That’s fairly early but they often do arrive in mid to late February. Sparrows were quite active and chirping away, too.

    1. Because we really have to forecast it in a range, like snowfall.
      Basically except about 0.25 to 1.00 inch of rainfall.
      It’s not going to pour for hours. Anything heavy will be short-lived. It’s just a widespread moderate rain event – not a heavy one.

      I know some of the headlines made it sound like a widespread damaging wind and heavy rain event. Nope.

      1. Thanks TK. Even being a long time WHW reader, I still get sucked in by the hype sometimes. As you said, media makes this storm out to be a paralyzing mega storm.

  21. 18Z HRRR winds valid at 13Z (8am) tomorrow morning.

    https://ibb.co/dpwQ5nQ

    Notice pockets of 60-70 knot wind gusts
    (69 – 80 mph!)

    I am not saying this will happen, just reporting what this
    particular model is saying. Capt, are you watching?

        1. no, 60. The first cut of dark purple is 60, the next cut is 70. You are in the first cut. Follow it down to South of SNE and you will readily see it. 🙂

  22. Wind already gusting to 38 mph at Worcester and 32 mph at Logan it is just 3PM. Long stretch of pretty good winds coming up. How high will they go?

  23. The weather in Ukraine and along most of its borders with Russia and Belarus is mild for the time of year; in the 40s and rainy. There’s been a lot of melting snow and therefore a ton of mud. Not ideal for a military offensive involving lots of tanks, in my estimation. Here, you can see satellite imagery of the Russian forces amassed near the Ukraine border. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60421378?

    The weather pattern doesn’t appear to change all that much in the coming days or weeks.The temperature (warmer than normal) anomalies in that region and most of Europe are rather staggering. https://twitter.com/chriscartw83/status/1493929403448922112

    2. About as staggering as the cold anomalies further east.
      It’s a “stable” pattern there where things don’t change much in each area.

      1. Agree. A sprawling stationary area of cold high pressure sits over Mongolia, I believe, and this has contributed to some of the cold anomalies further east. Japan has also had a relatively cold and snowy winter.

        What has surprised me is that there have been almost no incursions of truly cold air into Eastern Europe all winter, except far Southeastern Europe. Given that it’s the 17th of February and the coming weeks looks mild, I think that Eastern Europe will be mostly spared of any winter this year. That is a rarity, in places like Poland, Slovakia, and the Ukraine.

        You’ll notice cold anomalies in parts of far Northern Scandinavia, and that’s been a theme all winter. Usually, a stationary Scandinavian high sets up shop much further south, say, in the Helsinki area. This ushers in cold air into Poland, Germany, and even the Netherlands sometimes. Has not happened this year at all. The area of high pressure is waaaay up north and stuck.

  26. Thanks, TK

    The 20Z HRRR has a 70.2 mph (61 knot) gust down here around 7 am tomorrow. Should be a fun commute! 🙂

    1. I do think our short range guidance is over-estimating the wind a little bit this time. I’d at least lean toward the lower ends of the expected ranges for most of the region.

      1. I was going to say above that, even when strong, our winds are usually less than expected. One exception was very recent.

        Eric has it marked in one of the links I posted.

        1. I saw his map. That’s about what I am thinking myself. The 65 reserved for places like Blue Hill or the coastal locales. 🙂

  27. #FACTS

    Jimmy G. has more super bowl rings than any other currently active NFL quarterback. 😉

    1. YIKES!!! He looks a lot HUNGRY as well! I was near the Brigham just yesterday on my day off. I work a few blocks down the street from there.

      Do they attack if you start to run? Do they attack PERIOD?? Wildlife is coming to Downtown Crossing next. I hope they never wander into a subway station.

      1. No just make lots of noise. I’ve seen a lot thinner but he needs to be relocated to someplace where can be safe and find food.

        Not a good idea to run.

      2. They almost never attack people. Usually if they do it’s because they are very sick.

        Too many of them are watching around with mange.

        We have ourselves to blame for what it happening to these animals. We’ve build all over their habitat and they have nowhere left to go. Shame on us. Shame on the developers.

        1. Absolutely.

          There is a great book my son introduced me to called Coyote America. They are remarkably adaptable critters.

  29. Pete has snow & ice on his 10-day forecast for the 25-26th. Harvey mentioned “wintry” conditions possible for that timeframe as well.

    I believe SAK posted something to that effect here yesterday also.

    1. We have been talking about needing to keep an eye on the pattern down the road for the potential return to wintry weather. It being February, I’m not really surprised. 😉

  30. “Hurricane-force winds expected overnight.” …. How about, WRONG, NBC Boston. (Spoken by a news anchor, not a meteorologist…)

  31. Pete mentioned one of my favorite albums & songs tonight when he was talking about the previous records for Boston, Worcester, and Providence, all set in 1981 – “Ghost In The Machine” by the Police). I love when he does stuff like that. 🙂

    1. where?
      As far as I can tell the big winds were/are a no show.
      TK and WxWatcher were 100% correct in down playing the winds.

      Highest gust I could find was 51 at Worcester. I imagine Blue Hill was high. looks like needed elevation to tap into the stronger winds.

      Color me NOT impressed

      WIMPORAMA

      yes I know there was a tree and utility pole down in Brighton, but it looks like a good sneeze would have taken that tree down.

      1. They’ve been more impressive down here.

        I think I saw a 55 mph gust on the Marshfield ob.

        Lots of scattered outages, trees down in western Marshfield where it is more “foresty”.

        Duxbury, which is really dense with trees has a 2 hr delay.

        Nice and mild and humid though 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

        1. Still in the 50-60 MPH range which was expected. My wind ideas were pretty much identical to what was seen on the map that Eric made (Vicki posted it above).

          Still some opportunities for powerful gusts through the time the front goes through and it’s marching into eastern areas now (8AM, a bit later to the southeast). 🙂

            1. You’re likely in between the two heaviest. We were on the southern edge of the northern segment here.

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