Saturday February 19 2022 Forecast (11:18AM)

133 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 19-23)

A strong disturbance will cross our region today and bring 2 areas of precipitation through from west to east.. The first one coming at midday and early afternoon will be fairly benign and consist of some light rain/snow shower activity, with rain most likely at the front edge and closer to the South Coast. It is the second area that will be with a strong cold front trailing low pressure passing to our north which will cause a very narrow but more intense area of snow squalls accompanied by strong and gusty winds. This will cross the region from west to east mid through late afternoon. In any given location it will only last for several minutes, no more than about a quarter of an hour, but while it is occurring, visibility can drop to near zero, winds can gust over 30 MPH and a quick coating to 1 inch of snow can occur, making things very slippery during and after it falls, as some partial melting and then refreezing will take place. There is even the possibility of a few instances of lightning and thunder in the line. Once this goes by, it’s just going to be a windy and cold night with icy areas remaining on untreated surfaces where the snow fell. Sunday and Monday we see dry weather as high pressure slips to the south. It will start cold Sunday then recover somewhat, and a much milder Presidents Day is expected. Low pressure moving in from the west brings unsettled weather as we head toward the middle of next week, with initial ideas being a track to the west and a threat of rain over snow here, but we may need to watch surface temperatures for the possibility of some icing over interior areas, depending on the timing and details, which will be figured out…

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Light rain/snow showers west to east midday and early afternoon. Snow squalls likely west to east mid through late afternoon. Highs 30-37. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially late-day, shifting to NW.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 8-15. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing overnight. Wind chill below 0 at times.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY (PRESIDENTS DAY): Partly sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Lows 30-37. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain, may start as freezing rain in some interior areas.. Highs 40-47. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely Areas of fog. Temperatures steady 40-47. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain early. Highs 47-54. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 24-28)

Fair, cooler February 24. Next storm system threatens in the February 25-26 period and has a better chance of encountering colder air and being in the form of frozen precipitation. Fair, seasonably chilly weather to end the month.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 1-5)

Pattern looks colder with additional wintry weather precipitation threats in early March.

133 thoughts on “Saturday February 19 2022 Forecast (11:18AM)”

  1. Don’t expect all that much from the first area. This is your primer line. It’s falling into very dry air at the surface. Radar signature will look more impressive than surface result. It’s about a one-hour atmospheric primer for what comes behind it. That narrow line is the one that means business.

  7. My time-line for the main squall line…

    Albany 2:00PM
    Springfield 3:30PM
    Worcester 4:00PM
    Boston 5:00PM
    Cape Cod Canal 6:00PM
    Nantucket / Chatham 7:00PM

    Orientation will be NNE-SSW, moving from about 290, so you can visualize it from there.
    For a visual representation, see the HRRR loop. The HRRR & FV3 have that timing, while the 3km NAM is 1 hour slower than both of those. So we’ll see if that time-line needs adjusting.

    2. Yup 5PM. Earlier, I saw 22Z and said 6PM NOPE. that would have been for DST, but not for EST where 22z is 5PM.
      I’m losing it!!

  9. I hope the city pre-treats the neighborhoods. Since the intensity is almost certain, it’s unlikely it will be hardly a “waste” of chemicals. Better safe than sorry. I have to come home from work during the early evening, leaving at 7:00 pm.

  10. Thanks TK. Round one happening right now where I am right now. This is nothing intense so far. The second line had snow squall warnings with it

    1. That second line already looks very distinct. Even the first one isn’t half bad.

      Batch #1 = melts on contact, mostly on grass only?

      Batch #2 = covers everything. Coating +

  11. Blizzard here at Whiteface mountain right now. Visibility is near zero. And we are north of the main squall line.

    Drove through moderate to heavy snow in the first batch between Lake George and here on the way up this morning as well.

    Ausable River was raging with literally feet of jammed ice piled up along side it.

    2. Doesn’t just trust the radar. The radar says it’s been snowing here in Nashua for nearly an hour. My office is in downtown Nashua, and haven’t had any flakes yet. Nashua Airport is 33 with a 15 dewpoint. There is a LOT of dry air that needs to be overcome before it actually starts snowing. I’d be shocked if Boston sees any flakes from the first batch before 2:30pm

          1. To official be virga, it can’t reach the ground. So this is a mixture of virga (where not reaching round) and very light snow (where it is).

    2. I think the 2nd line is going to be pretty solid coverage, just very narrow.

      The first one doesn’t produce much impact at all.

      1. Did see that. Eric mentioned early today. The video I posted though shows the line moving NNE-SSW which you had said. But the northern most part of that line (Which is what I “think” is headed for MA) seems to carry less warned areas than the southern part (which is what I “think” is headed south of MA)

        It is nothing more than me wondering

      2. I think the problem is that RadarScope isn’t showing the line along with the squall warning boxes. May be my RadarScope settings ?? JPD?

  17. Checked the house garage camera when that first batch of heavier snow was moving through Coventry. Not a flake was coming down.

  18. I can say with all certainty that it would not take a whole lot of anything for the second line to be stronger than the one that just went through. I’m pretty sure I could easily count the flakes

    1. Only in that it adds a little moisture to the atmosphere to support the survival of the second batch. A lot of its moisture will be used in raising the dew points closer to the surface.

  23. RAP & HRRR both have faster timing still, along with FV3.
    NAM 3km was an hour slower on its 12z run as I previously mentioned.

  28. During my run encountered flurries – some big, most were small flakes – and some very light snow blowing sideways.

    Listened to two of my favorite albums while running: David Bowie’s classic album The Rise and Fall of Ziggy Stardust and the Spiders from Mars; and Lou Reed’s equally innovative gem, Transformer. Both were released 50 (!) years ago. And both featured Mick Ronson. Also, Bowie worked with Reed on Transformer – even does vocals on a couple of songs.

    Bowie’s Five Years: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4bcnO3VQ_fc

    Reed’s Perfect Day: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9wxI4KK9ZYo

  35. Timing looks very close to the outline above so far…

    It is just getting into Springfield about 9 minutes behind my 3:30 p.m. estimate.

  37. Round one is complete and it left a nice little dusting of snow, plenty enough so looking out, one can see it every where.

  38. 32 degrees here now with blue sky showing to the West.

    Since the snow squall warnings were dropped, does that mean
    we won’t have a bad squall, but rather some snow showers?
    OR
    does it mean it will intensify as it gets closer to the coast?

  44. Whiteout a few moments ago on the garage cam and still snowing. Everything is white, looks like a quick inch fell.

    1. Seriously, no warnings up. With what I just viewed from Worcester this absolutely positively warranted a WARNING!
      For a couple of minutes it must have been snowing at the rate
      of 6-8 inches per hour. I mean it was brutal. Could not see across the street! Could not see anything! Just white!

  51. Still no Squall warning. What is the NWS criteria. If that squall in Worcester didn’t qualify, then I don’t know what would!(!@&#()!@&()#*!)(@#*()!*@#)(*!)(@#*)(!*@#()!*()@#*)(!*@#!*#*@*#!**#*@*!*#()!(#_!(@#(!_@#(

  54. WHO are these guys kidding?????????????????????????????

    .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/…
    340pm update…

    still doing “nowcasting” of the band of snow showers. It does
    appear it is weakening as it`s now getting into the CT River
    Valley, but that could be an artifact of radar coverage since
    our radar beams are highest above the ground in that part of the
    area – so we don`t have good sampling of the lowest few thousand
    feet where all the action is. Still locally brief heavy snow
    producing low visibilities for a few minutes and that is
    expected to be the case for the next hour or so as it moves
    east. Latest HRRR still shows the band stays together at it
    reaches the coast, so we can`t totally write it off at this
    point. Just might not be strong enough to warrant Snow Squall
    Warnings, but still will produce some briefly difficult driving
    conditions.

    GIMMIE a break!

  58. Minutes away here in Woburn. Time lapse running. When it arrives I may pull the time lapse and take some straight up video.

  59. Snow squall

    A snow squall is defined as a short but intense burst of snow accompanied by strong winds that can produce whiteout or near whiteout conditions and is “a key wintertime weather hazard,” according to the NWS.

    I’m with JPD why in heavens name were warnings lifted

  61. Sorry to have missed the fun. Have been at Logan all afternoon—plane pulled away from the gate—went to de-ice, parking brake got stuck, towed back to the gate 3 hours later. Fun times!

  62. They are a little bizarre with their warning criteria for snow squalls. I think they need to refine that.

  63. Here is a link to the time-lapse video that I took which covers about 1 hour leading up to the arrival of the snow squall when the visibility drops to pretty much near zero…

    The video cuts right at the arrival of the zero visibility because I grabbed my camera at that point and went outside for regular video. 😉

    https://photos.app.goo.gl/YMoWoa5x4Cdpd6rx8

    1. I did say there would be a few quieter zones in there. I guess you got one of them. My friend near the South Coast got another one.

      1. No worries it was fun thinking about it coming . We have been pretty lucky down here this winter snow wise .

      1. Just barely covered the cars & lawns here , what is happening is the wind as it’s cranking here now .

        1. I guess you can think of it as that lighter zone in between 2 stronger cells in a line of t-storms. 😉

  65. JPD, thanks for sharing the youtube video of Reed and Bowie. I had never seen that one. Classic. Bowie was quintessentially British, but he loved American music, of all kinds.

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