Monday January 23 2023 Forecast (7:19AM)

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 23-27)

A case of the Stormy Monday Blues starts our week off as the system that arrived yesterday with some light snow late yesterday and rain coast with snow well inland last night continues to impact the region during today. The center of low pressure has moved across the Islands and Outer Cape Cod over the last few hours and as it moves away today, the back side of its elongated center will be part of a trough that extends back away from the low. After more spotty mixed precipitation to the northwest and rain to the south to start the day, a steadier lobe of mix to snow will swing through the region from midday through the afternoon hours, resulting in a period of snow, expected to accumulate another 1 to 3 inches in general across southern NH and down to about I-90 and along the I-95 belt as well, with areas to the southeast of here seeing less than 1 inch of accumulation (I’ve left the storm total accumulation in the forecast section below which reads very similar to yesterday’s as areas of southern NH and north central MA have already had some accumulation from the first part of the storm, and this is included in the total there. This storm system pulls out of the region tonight and the promised break in the action comes on Tuesday as we’ll be in a drier northwesterly air flow behind the departing storm system. A cold front will be moving out of eastern Canada into New England at that time, but its snow shower activity will be confined to the mountains and we’ll only see some patchy clouds down in the WHW forecast area. A small area of high pressure in eastern Canada extends down into our area Tuesday night and very early Wednesday with dry and slightly colder weather. But the break is short-lived, as the well-advertised active pattern rolls on. The next low pressure area makes a run at the eastern Great Lakes later Wednesday and is destined to redevelop with its secondary center moving right across our region early on Thursday before moving quickly and steadily away by later Thursday. The precipitation scenario with this one will be a snow to rain event, maybe some sleet in the transition, with the typical south to north progression of a changeover line sometime Wednesday night after some areas deal with snow accumulation. A quick ending to the rain comes Thursday morning followed by dry weather later Thursday and Friday as low pressure departs and high pressure moves in.

TODAY: Overcast. Showery precipitation this morning as mostly rain but pockets of freezing rain and eventually some sleet/snow north central MA and southwestern NH. Steadier mix to snow west to east midday through afternoon. Total storm snowfall accumulation including what has fallen in northwestern portions of the area: 4-8 inches interior southern NH and north central MA with isolated amounts of greater than 8 inches possible in the highest elevations, 2-4 inches NH Seacoast down I-495 belt to I-90 region, 1 to 2 inches I-95 corridor, under 1 inch southeast of I-95 to little or nothing along the South Coast. Highs 33-40 except over 40 South Coast. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH, strongest near the coast where higher gusts are possible.

TONIGHT: Evening snow showers possible especially eastern and southern areas, otherwise breaking clouds. Lows 22-29. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusty.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusty.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 17-24. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Clouding over. Snow inland / mix coast by late in the day. Highs 33-40. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Overcast with snow/mix transitioning to mix/rain. Temperatures steady or rising slightly. Wind E-SE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with rain ending west to east during the morning. Breaking clouds afternoon. Highs 38-45 except 46-53 South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming W 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 17-24. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 28 – FEBRUARY 1)

Mostly dry but not totally dry weather expected for the January 28-29 weekend as we watch a cold front bring potential snow showers Saturday and an approaching warm front maybe bring some patchy snow to western and northern areas at some point Sunday, but not a “stormy” weekend. Trough / low pressure moves through with unsettled weather January 30. Generally fair and seasonably chilly weather with high pressure moving in for the final day of January and first day of February based on current timing.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 2-6)

This is when we enter a period of seasonably cold and potentially unsettled weather with 1 or 2 systems to bring winter precipitation opportunities. Will work out timing and details as these threats get closer.

143 thoughts on “Monday January 23 2023 Forecast (7:19AM)”

  1. Thanks TK !

    Boston Harbor tide guage with a water level of +1.28 ft vs expected.

    Added to an expected, very very high 11.7 ft tide at noon, projects it at 13 ft already.

    Lets see if the surge increases much in the next 5 hrs.

  2. Thanks Tk , we’ll the ride in did include some heavy rain . I’m leaving the city at 3:00 to head home , should it be ok . Thanks Tk

    1. My friend’s husband is a bus driver, and he got word of a remote day while he was on the way to the first stop this morning. Talk about last minute….haha!

      1. That surprises me. DESE had absolutely forbidden remote. I’m not sure schools are set up. Is this is a private school?

        1. I didn’t know remote is actually “forbidden”. I thought schools just voluntarily dropped the concept since most kids hated it, and that their grades suffered. Maybe private schools can do whatever they want.

          1. Nope. DESE forbid it. Even when schools had to close with so many sick, they had to fight to have remote. It may have changed this year.

  3. I am very sad today. Lost the best tree in my yard. Heard it at about 3am. Maybe 125+ year old apple tree. It belonged on a scenery calendar. Nothing melted. Never got above 32 and the snow on the trees just got heavier. OYE.

  4. Thanks, TK.

    I’m officially sun-deprived.

    The gloom continues. Frankly, I don’t think we’ll get much sun this week, either.

        1. Even on the mostly “sunny” days, sunrises take forever and sunsets still seem early. A very strange winter, and not in a good way.

  5. Sorry posted this earlier, but for some reason the message didn’t appear….Woke up at 4:30 a.m. to a transformer explosion. I didn’t lose power, but other parts of the town did. I think there will be a lot more of this later on. The trees are already sagging.

      1. I’d say about 4 inches between last week and yesterday and then freezing rain on top of that overnight. The snow from last week never melted off the trees.

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Yet another GLOOMY Day!!!!

    Quite a gloomy sunless period we have had. Seems that there were way more than usual.

    1. Call me a pessimist, but I think those totals for the Boston
      area are too high. We shall see. If anything, I think that
      this morning’s NAMs and HRRR have backed off some.
      In looking at the Snow Depth change maps, it’s only producing
      about an inch for Boston and surrounding area.

      OK, so the maps with 1-3 might make it on the low end,
      but the 2-4 and the 3-4 inch totals “appear” to be a stretch to me.

      Last night, David Williams had a coating to 2 inches for Boston which I thought was right on the money.

      We shall see.

      It is 36 here in JP and still awaiting the transition to SNOW.
      FWIW, it isn’t doing much at all here. Radar shows a bit of sleet??? I don’t see anything pinging nor do I hear it.
      Very very light precip falling, whatever form it is.

        1. (1-3/2-4) it’s all pretty much the same. I bet Boston south only ends up with C-1” anyway. Was that Pete’s amount?

  7. Water level in harbor running +1.52 ft above projected …

    11.7 + 1.52 = 13.22 ft projection, as of now, at 12:02pm

    1. The fact that we’re getting excited about 2” vs 4” of snow shows how dreadful this winter has been so far

  8. I’m sorry, I know it’s unpopular opinion, but school cancellations for this event are absurd. I can see if snow was going to be falling hard for the commutes but that won’t be the case. If we can’t handle what I would define as a light event, what are we doing as New Englanders?

    1. I agree Ace. I could see if temps were in the 20s and it was icing everywhere, but temps are generally in the low to mid 30s. 🙂

    1. Tis that time of year for them. Let’s hope there is no tornadic activity and if there is, it passes over unpopulated areas.

  9. A tale of two different 10-day forecasts:

    NBC-10 = Following the midweek event, temperatures 20s-low 30s with opportunities for snow.

    Ch. 5 = After the midweek event, quiet with temperatures near 40.

    1. I’m definitely going with Channel 5 on this one. I don’t see much cold air intruding into our area. Sure, it’ll be a bit colder than it’s been. But we’ll be seeing a lot of 40ish days, with no nights in the teens in sight, at least not at the coast. As I said last week, I think Boston will have a January without a single night in the teens. Frankly, it’s worse than that. We barely every get below 29F at night. My coldest reading this month was a bit under 26F. That’s really remarkable. I am done with this winter at this point. Bring on spring. Spring is not my favorite season, by any stretch, but this winter has been dudsville.

    2. Also, if you’re seeing on NBC the 10-day that was also on NECN, it’s representative of New England, not Boston, and then you see the problem with one temp on a graphic. This is why I say never really pay attention to those numbers especially beyond a few days. They are just boxes that have to be filled because the boss says so.

    1. What is normal? That seems pretty high. Must be flooding
      near Long Wharf where it usually does. Also over on
      Northern Ave. ????????

      1. The avg Boston high tide, as measured in Boston harbor is 9.5 ft.

        That would leave a few feet of room before any splashover occurs.

        So being almost 4 ft above normal tide, there has to be at least splashover, but probably something a little more.

  10. My daughter will be leaving Children’s hospital to drive to Natick around 330 this afternoon. Will driving be a problem? Also does 1-3” still look good for metro west today? Thanks.

  11. Lot of school cancellations due to afternoon impacts. Most schools don’t want to do early dismissals anymore. Basically all or none proposition.

    Further, in central-north central MA, LOTS of tree damage occurring with significant power impacts. The 2-4″ of heavy wet snow that’s coming this afternoon is only going to make this situation much worse.

  12. Snow now mixing in. Here we go. Will the snow eventually stick like “January” or melt like “March” for the afternoon? 😉

    1. These forecasts are in very good agreement, and I also agree with them, taking the one temp limit into account of course.

  13. Thanks TK.

    Been snowing about an hour here at the office in Manchester CT and it is really coming down now. Everything is white and it is accumulating on the pavement as well.

  14. Its too bad this feature this afternoon is so progressive. Would like to see it moving through a little slower.

  15. Radar makes me think Boston’s weather suburbs have heavy snow and that Boston itself is about to see heavy snow.

  16. Just changed to all snow here in Sharon after about 2 hours of a weird icy mix. Not heavy but starting to slush up the roads a bit.

  17. This morning I believe I heard one tv met said to expect 1”+ per hour rates. Is that really possible?

  18. Snow is Really coming down. Moderate for sure. Closing in on the 1st inch. The forecast of a coating to 2 inches has verified
    and the 1-3 inch forecast is about to verify shortly. We’ll see about the 2-4 and 3-4 inch forecasts.

  19. Arrive safely from Reading to Woburn. It was hazardous but the traffic was light so it wasn’t that bad a drive.

    I would say I was driving in snowfall rates easily 1 to 2 inch per hour. We have about 1.5 on the ground new at Woburn now and I will get a better measurement in a little while when it ends.

  20. Updated snow amount from Woburn. 2.5 inches. I’m going over 3 I think.

    HRRR picked back up on the slightly faster strengthening and greater snowfall rates at the last minute today. But that’s what the model is designed for. Very short range.

  21. Not snowing nearly as hard, but still a steady light snow.
    Back end appears to be approaching rather quickly. 🙂

  22. Older daughter and family are driving home from Stowe. Daughter said gps took them off the highway because of so many accidents.

    The radar does look as if this is ending any time soon. Am I wrong? Will it end sooner than I think?

    1. Ending is right on schedule. About 00z (7PM), a bit sooner west, a bit later far southeast. Heaviest will be done sooner though. The end time is for final flakes. 🙂

      1. They are on back roads because of accidents on highways. It will be a long drive. I’m praying there are no problems. They are seeing a lot of downed trees

        I keep reminding myself that when younger, I drove to ski area and to and from Stowe in lots of nasty weather. 🙂

        1. I’m sure if they take it slow they will be ok. 🙂

          Main road here is just wet now, though it’s still snowing steadily, but not nearly at the rate it was 2 hours ago.

  23. If anyone is thinking ahead and where it’s about 48 hours away my first call on the Wednesday evening (before it becomes rain) is 1-3 inches I-90 / I-95 belt from I-90 to northeastern MA & NH Seacoast, 3-6 NW of that, less than 1 southeast of that.

  24. Thanks TK. Would guess the snow totals would be 1-2″ higher across the board if this event had occurred at night. Still, not a bad little winter storm for SNE and another sign that the wintry pattern flip is right on schedule.

    The pattern that’s shaping up is one I’ve been expecting to see more of this winter: a Southeast ridge that exists but is suppressed enough to put SNE more into the Canadian cold than the Gulf warmth. It still looks like a drier interlude after the midweek system (which will feature accumulating snow in most of SNE), but the dry doesn’t look to have much staying power, as it hasn’t for awhile. Keep those shovels and snow blowers handy the next few weeks 😉

    1. Indeed! I think the only thing I should have changed for today was turning 1-3 into 2-4 with isolated 4+ for the I-95 belt. It’s very hard to forecast the intensity of those snow bands, which did indeed form, and nicely I might add! I have another one coming through here right now. Intensity just picked up one more time.

  25. Probably around 4″ here on top of the 4″ or whatever on Friday that every single flake stayed in place on. Trees are in a sketchy position. Chainsaw had to come out three times today to be able to get down the driveway. And now the wind is kicking up…

    Worst 4″ storm I can remember LOL. Punched over its weight to be sure.

    And roads are awful.

  26. I’m going to end up with nearly 5 I think. That will be 2 inches over the top of my 1-3 inch forecast range for my area. I am thoroughly impressed with the exactly perfect timing of the max intensification of this. Final heavy band is about to get to me. It’s narrow and won’t last long, but it’s going to be intense.

  27. TK – Are these rain-to-snow/snow-to-rain events all part of the overall transition to that cold & snowy pattern for next month?

    1. We’re in a slow pattern transition now, as previously stated.

      Any weather that happens is part of the pattern transition.

        1. All weather.
          You can’t exclude anything from the current pattern.. all weather is part of the pattern you are in.

  28. All the tv Mets have 1-3” for the Wednesday event before changeover. You don’t see such consensus like that with winter storms around here very often especially days in advance. 🙂

    1. We are truly blessed to have some of the best Mets. I have always thought our Mets are typically in agreement. Nws can be an outlier; but even with this storm, they have been close to each other.

    2. Well, it’s only 48 hours out. Same #’s I have too.
      I think this one is a relatively easy forecast (famous last words?). 😉

  29. Howdy,

    I’m more of a lurker than a commenter on the web, but I thought you guys might like some scenes from around my area in Central Mass today…..

    Central Massachusetts Winter Storm https://imgur.com/gallery/XOXy2ju

    Love the discussion here, been following since the wbz blog days

    Enjoy the snow!

      1. Yes, first is Alta Vista in Rutland, second is on Causeway street between Jefferson and Rutland, I actually had to turn around because of downed trees and go back through Rutland and 122 into Holden.

        Third and fourth are Holden hills, I took the kids sledding after work. Last is Marvin(?) The Camel at Lilac Hedge Farm.

        I live in Holden, near “the maze.”

        1. Same. I’m right on maple street at the start of the maze. We’re neighbors!

          One of my daughters worked at Lilac when she was in high school. I’ve seen that camel many times

  30. 3.25 South Sutton.

    Still snowing.

    Daughter and family home. Six hours all back roads isn’t bad from Stowe. Thank you for the guidance TK

  31. Have not been home yet but my son measured 3.5″ in Coventry. I’d say about 2″ here at the office in Manchester CT.

  32. Our power was out from 5pm to 8pm. That’s really not bad considering that most of the snow from the previous storm was still hanging on the trees!

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