Tuesday January 24 2023 Forecast (7:32AM)

98 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 24-28)

A quick review of yesterday’s storm-ending snow burst. For the most part the forecast amounts worked well, with a tendency for higher ends of ranges to be realized. There was a surprise regional jackpot area in eastern Middlesex and portions of Essex Counties, where up to a few inches over the forecast amounts occurred. One example is right here at WHW’s home in Woburn, where I was in a forecast 1-3 inch band, and received 5.5 inches. When shoveling the snow, I found it to be very much lighter weight than I had expected, while still being sticky (but not sopping wet). This indicates to me an atmosphere that was colder where the flakes form, but relatively mild (still cold enough for snow) at lower levels. And now that system is gone, and we get a little break today in a northwesterly air flow behind it. But don’t look now, here comes the next storm system! Still on track to be a snow to rain producer later Wednesday into early Thursday. Forecast snow amounts will appear below. The storm’s track takes it into the Great Lakes with a redevelopment right over our region, allowing warm air in aloft to easily change from frozen to liquid precipitation. The surface temperature profile during the storm’s passage will have a wide range, rising only to the middle to upper 30s in the northwestern portions of the WHW forecast area while the Cape Cod region soars to 50+, being southeast of the secondary low’s track. When this system departs Thursday, again we’ll get into a drying westerly air flow, setting us up for a full day of fair weather Friday as high pressure controls the weather. Saturday will feature mostly fair weather as well, but a cold front moving into the region may touch off a few snow showers which, if they occur, would be quick and passing, but also an indication that colder air is arriving – something we haven’t seen a whole lot of, by January standards anyway, during this month.

TODAY: Clouds eventually break for sun. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 17-24. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Clouding over. Snow inland / mix coast by late in the day. Highs 33-40. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Overcast with snow/mix transitioning to mix/rain. Snow accumulation before the change – 3-6 inches interior southern NH through central MA, 1-3 inches NH Seacoast to I-495 and I-95 belts, under 1 inch southeast of there. Temperatures slightly rising to 35-42 southern NH and central MA, 43-50 most areas except over 50 South Coast and Cape Cod. Wind E-SE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to SW along the South Coast with an area of variable winds right along the track of the new low center.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with rain ending west to east during the morning. Breaking clouds afternoon. Highs 40-47 except 48-55 South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts expected.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 17-24. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a passing snow shower. Highs 35-42. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, shifting to NW by late in the day.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 29 – FEBRUARY 2)

Next low pressure system approaches late in the weekend on January 29. Looks like a weaker system with a low track northwest of our region, dragging a warm front / cold front combo through, so expecting more clouds to move in during Sunday and some precipitation – best shot of snow north and west with rain south and east – Sunday night into part of Monday January 30 before drier weather returns later Monday through the final day of the month on Tuesday of next week. Watching the first couple days of February for colder weather and eventually a storm threat by the end of the period. Long way to go to scope that one out.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 3-7)

Potential storm systems to impact the region very early and again later in the period with winter weather threats as it looks like a colder pattern as well.

98 thoughts on “Tuesday January 24 2023 Forecast (7:32AM)”

  2. Thanks TK !

    My eyes are on the Gulf Coast today, from southeastern TX to the FL Panhandle.

    Hopefully minimal tornadoes in unpopulated areas.

    2. Thank you. 1-3 for the Boston area seems to be the consensus.

      12z Nam Kuchera

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023012412&fh=51&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      3KM Kuchera

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023012412&fh=54&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      12Z HRRR Kuchera

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023012412&fh=51&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      I guess the HRRR wants to bring warm air in much faster!

  11. Bill O’Brian is the new OC for the Patriots.
    Patriots have the future head coach waiting.
    Now the Patriots need an
    1. offensive Tackles
    2. corner/safety ( especially if DMac retires.
    3. I know everyone wants a “true #1 receivers” what the Patriots really need is a real slot receiver. We been lacking it since Julian Edelman left. Every time in which the Patriots were to the AFC championship or superbowl, we had one. Meyer’s is not a true Patriot slot receiver. ( there are a couple in the 3rd round of the draft)
    4. Would like to see KB extended and Aghallor let go or traded.
    5. Would like to see a trade for Hopkins or Higgens.

      1. some of the better special team years was when Joe Judge was the special teams coach, so I think they could slide them into that spot again.

        1. with that said Matt Patricia needs to just be gone, I dont want him touching theoffense but also I don’t want him near the defense as well.

  13. I wonder if there’s a power outage potential and some flash flood potential on the southern edge of that winter storm watch box.

    My guess is the southern edge of that watch area, after potentially seeing a decent front end dump, may briefly get some decent southerly winds and/or a couple hrs of heavy rain before the precip ends.

  14. From Antarctica. Visited Detaille Island and went by the US Palmer Station yesterday. Weather excellent. Temps mid 30’s, light wind and some sun.

    Today near Port Lockroy and the weather is very different. Beaufort Scale: 10. Whitecaps, sea ice, and icebergs everywhere. Can’t leave the ship until this afternoon.

    Lots of photos but they don’t do justice. I guess the majesty of it all is hard to capture in snapshots.

  16. For those commenting recently about how cloudy January has been, I received this from a co-worker this morning:

    Blue Hill has had 21% of the possible sunshine through yesterday for January. The record for January is 31%. The all-time cloudiest
    month is April 1901 with 21%.

    2. Thanks, SAK. Like getting the (historical) weather stats and forecasts from you.

      April 1901 is a bit before my time. But it makes sense that April would be the record holder.

      Generally, I find January quite manageable because there’s often so much sunshine. Not this year, clearly.

    1. And, unfortunately, we have the first tornado warned storm of the day. Radar indicated, no confirmation of being on the ground.

      1. Concerning .,….. an awful lot of populated areas in this first watch box including …. Houston, Port Arthur, Lake Charles, LA …..

        based on the area the SPC has identified, I would think another tornado watch will eventually extend east to include ….. Lafayette, Baton Rouge and New Orleans.

  23. Just reading how gloomy this month has been when clouds took over. Still looking for sunshine later? Also saw models showing warmer temps tomorrow and wondered if more likely to just get rain tomorrow around Natick. Thanks.

    1. I’m beginning to wonder if any sun will be seen today. Has the cloud shield from tomorrow’s event already arrived well in advance? 🙁

        1. Never had it here at all. I guess it’s going to be another one of THOSE days that we’ve encountered much of this month as SAK described above. We’re certainly not going to see sun tomorrow with the next storm approaching in the afternoon. Oh well.

  24. Continued brutal long range projections being spit out by the GFS. The forecasts in the GIF linked below are for 12z on Feb. 4. The forecasted temp. near Pittsburgh ranges from -10F to +60F over the course of 5 consecutive runs. Could make a better prediction using climo and a dartboard 🙂

    Ryan Stauffer
    @ryans_wx
    19h

    This is the same forecast time from the last 5 runs of the GFS

    https://twitter.com/ryans_wx/status/1617656473965973505?s=20&t=ImDV6hIN3AxvumBrUFlDaQ

    1. Identified – The latest update from ECMWF indicates that both the 12z Euro Op and Ensemble will be delayed until further notice due to major network issues.

      We will update and begin processing the data as soon as it is made available by ECMWF.
      Jan 24, 2023 – 13:24 EST

    1. Spectacular to see!

      This is natural calving. This is one of the larger pieces since the early 1970s!

  27. To Eric (EMB) – from earlier:

    To answer your question, La Nina. La Nina. La Nina. That’s your basic reason why we’ve had this pattern. In combo with other things of course.

    Things are heading for a change though. 🙂

  29. Framingham has already declared early release for tomorrow…

    Yesterday I decided to hold all of our after school programming as opposed to many of our peer schools who did not. They all dismissed at the height of the storm at 3:00. I left after coaching at 5:45 PM to lightly falling snow, wet roads, and my typical 25 minute drive home. We will hold all programming tomorrow as well…hopefully continuing our streak of making the right decision!

    3. Schools out here cancelled yesterday. Good thing as buses would have been traveling at the start of the worst driving. Any after school activities would have been very risky. It must not have been as bad there as it was here. Framingham has some nasty areas. I think the superintendents know their towns best

  30. ECMWF op run has a winterstorm signal around February 1-2. In the ballpark of where I’d been thinking (2-3). Waiting to see if it has ensemble support – yeah it’s still way out there. But seeing it’s there, it’s time to follow that trend.

    1. Ya, the ensemble support is there – but being out that far the tracks are, of course, widely varying. We’ll see how things go in the days ahead.

  31. I like the idea of early release for schools that can do that tomorrow, especially for areas away from the coast and the further west you go. This would get all school-related traffic off the road before the heart of rush hour, which itself may be a little earlier than normal, and allow more space for crews to tackle roads right away instead of having to play catch up.

    Yes, it’s not going to be a “big snowstorm”, but all you need is a quick inch in 45 minutes or an hour and you have a mess on your hands. It’s about the snowfall rate, not necessarily the snowfall amount.

    1. Oops. Typing before I saw this.

      I agree. I cannot imagine the kids being on a bus for as much as an hour on the roads out here late yesterday.

      1. You are asking the wrong person. I don’t fault our Mets. Or I supposeit’s safe to say our superintendents 🙂 . It’s why I left wbz. FWIW i was more focused on his timeline and especially his advice to clear snow before it gets waterlogged.

        1. Figured, lol. Not faulting him, wouldn’t dare. Just pointing out his numbers are highest I’ve seen today. For the schools, I won’t budge (and I know u won’t either) on these minor events shouldn’t cause any delays/cancellations. We should be able to handle them.

          1. You are right. I will never budge when it comes to safety of kids. I don’t pretend to know Sharon so surely will not fault your supers decision. I know Framingham very well and now this area. The roads out here are narrow and there are few if any street lights. I watched cars slipping up our street yesterday just as the bus would have been arriving had we had school.

            My point is…superintendents know their areas. The average person looking in does not.

            As an aside, at 10 am yesterday, I was wondering if the supers would be sorry they cancelled. By 1:30, I was eating that thought as it was 110% wrong.

    1. If it plays out the way I think, you may leave in light snow, drive into cloudy, and then see the return of light to moderate snow, depending on how long it takes to get there.

      Worst case scenario: Roads start to get covered before you arrive.

      Medium case: Snow is light enough that roads are just wet.

      Best case: The advance lobe of snow is miniscule and it stays dry until after you arrive. I’d lean toward the middle one with a tiny tweak toward the worst one.

  34. I’ll wait until the 00z / 06z guidance, but I am thinking of bumping my #’s up slightly. The 1-3 would become 2-4, the 3-6 would become 4-6 (I don’t think anyone gets over 6). I would then create a coating to 2 inch zone and leave the outer part of Cape Cod and the islands mainly snow-free. This is the working idea – we’ll see what happens.

    1. Great leaving the city is going to be a blast a 3pm . At least I’ll be parked across the street from the Hospital as I have to be in at 5am tomorrow

      2. Son leaves Boston for RI at 3:00. He said ride was ok yesterday but slow and of course longer than normal. Be safe SSK

      3. If you’re leaving at 3 and heading SSE you should escape most of the weather-related trouble, but will probably deal with heavier than normal traffic due to people who normally exit offices at 5 getting out of there sooner.

          1. Yes and yesterday was even more tricky because you had such a quick escalation of the snowfall rates when it was going to be unavoidable to have people on the roads.

            At least this time is that it’ll be a weaker snowfall rate coming slightly later, with more people having the opportunity to be done with road travel before “the worst of it” arrives. While there will be headaches, I suspect the overall impact will be less, traffic-wise. 🙂

              1. The rate was definitely great enough to overcome the wet roads rather quickly. It happened very quickly! Would have been a little slower if we had a March sun angle, but even then it was heavy enough long enough that it would have done the same I believe, maybe just for a little shorter duration. 🙂

        2. Is it mostly rain for pembroke TK. Yeah I left at 3 Monday & just that little bit of precipitation & it took me almost 2.5 hours

  39. All 3 HRW models showing very little snow in SNE on their 0z runs as well.

    I suppose a badly timed quick inch of snow during the evening commute could cause some mild travel difficulties tomorrow but overall the up front snow portion of this system is beginning to look like a non-event if these short range models are on to something.

    1. That area really cashed in. Berkshire East had 14″ as well and further north, Loon had 11″. Coupled with last Friday’s storm and tomorrow’s storm, many ski areas are going to be 90-100% open by the weekend. It’s about time!

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