Wednesday January 25 2023 Forecast (7:35AM)

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 25-29)

The upcoming storm system behaves as previously noted in terms of timing, coming in this afternoon and exiting early Thursday, with low pressure moving into the eastern Great Lakes and redeveloping right over southern New England before moving quickly seaward. Recent short range guidance trends have been consistently for a slightly weaker thrust of precipitation and slightly milder overall set-up, and after briefly considering erring on the side of “over-performance” before this trend got underway, I’m actually going to take the top edge off my initial snowfall estimate, which will appear in updated form in the detailed forecast below. Expect a little batch of very light to light snow to extend out from the approaching system that can put some flakes in the air but not likely have any real road impact sometime early this afternoon, favoring areas north of I-90 and west of I-95. The main batch of precipitation then arrives late in the day, before darkness falls for the western areas and at dusk or shortly after dark for eastern areas. For most it starts as snow, except the immediate coast and certainly the South Coast which have a much better shot at starting as a mix of snow and rain or even just rain. Before long, a definitive rain/snow line, perhaps with a narrow ribbon of sleet along with it, will not only be apparent but will waste little time moving northward across the WHW forecast area during the evening hours, followed by a solid moderate to heavy swath of rainfall during the late evening and overnight hours. The system is moving along swiftly enough that I expect this area of rain to exit from west to east before dawn on Thursday, leaving us with a drier day, mild in temperature, with an increasing breeze to help dry of most cleared surfaces. With colder air returning Thursday night we will have to watch for areas of melt-water and puddles freezing up – typical wintertime stuff – so be aware of that later that night and early Friday. Friday’s weather itself looks fair with a little less wind as a small ridge of high pressure, centered to the south but extending northward, moves across the region. The wind picks up again on Saturday as that high slides offshore and a low pressure area moves quickly west to east across southeastern Canada. This low will drag a cold front across the region which may produce a few showers of snow, mixed precipitation, and maybe even rain to the south, during the morning and midday hours, based on current expected timing. But that frontal boundary doesn’t get that far south and east of us and lifts right back across the region on Sunday while another low pressure disturbance moves through the eastern Great Lakes, destined for a path north of our region late Sunday through early Monday. This will bring some light precipitation later Sunday or Sunday night, in the form of snow or mix to the northwest, mix or rain to the southeast, to be fine-tuned as we get closer to its occurrence.

TODAY: Clouding up. Brief light snow possible north central to northeastern MA and southern NH midday or early afternoon. Snow/mix/rain arriving west to east late in the day, snow most likely inland, rain more likely coast. Highs 33-40. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Snow/mix/rain transitioning to rain during the evening south to north, rain possibly heavy at times late evening into overnight, ending west to east pre-dawn. Snow accumulation before change-over from little or nothing in coastal areas to a coating to 2 inches away from the coast, with 2-4 inches possible in higher elevations of central MA and southwestern NH. Temperatures slightly rising to 35-42 southern NH and central MA, 43-50 most areas except over 50 South Coast and Cape Cod. Wind E-SE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to SW along the South Coast with an area of variable winds right along the track of the new low center.

THURSDAY: Clouds occasionally break for sun. Highs 40-47 except 48-55 South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts expected.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 17-24. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a passing snow/mix/rain shower through midday. Highs 35-42. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, shifting to NW, with higher gusts possible.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH early becoming variable, then S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of light rain/mix southeast and mix/snow northwest evening or night. Highs 38-45. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 30 – FEBRUARY 3)

Relatively weak disturbance (the one coming in late Sunday) exits early Monday January 30 with fair weather following through January 31. Continuing to watch the first few days of February for colder weather and a potential winter precipitation threat.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 4-8)

Overall pattern looks a little colder with another storm threat around mid period.

110 thoughts on “Wednesday January 25 2023 Forecast (7:35AM)”

  1. Thanks, TK.

    The Dutch have an expression for this weather – in part because they tend to get a lot of it in fall and winter – “gray nothingness.” It’s one of the reasons I returned to Boston. I couldn’t stand it. And now I’m experiencing it again.

    Afghanis are suffering immensely under the brutal rule of the Taliban; women and girls, in particular. Poverty there is so widespread that international groups estimate that at least 90% and perhaps as much as 97% of the population is poor (which means absolute poverty). To add to the population’s misery, this winter has been harsh and has killed a lot of people. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-64386145?

  2. I don’t know if this means anything, but the output on the short range models, Nam and hrr are different than radar returns…hrr seems to be closer, but radar is more expensive than what the models are showing at this time

  3. Thank you TK!
    Thank you Dr. S for putting together the around the dial graphics, very convenient to have all in one post and your time and effort greatly appreciated.

    1. I second your comment. And it’s nice to see you here. I was thinking we hadn’t seen you in a bit or maybe I just missed you.

      1. Thank you Vicki, same here. I’ve been lurking more than posting lately, but I do try to drop in daily to read the blog and TK’s take on the weather. I should change my name to virga , here but not visible. Lol.

  4. Seems to be a difference of opinion on the wind coming up as ch 5 plays it up more while ch 4 seems to restrict higher gusts to south shore and cape. What is your take for the metro west area? Thanks.

  5. So will there actually be a legitimate snow storm for SNE
    this Winter? I sure don’t like what I am seeing. Sure the GFS shows a few interesting scenarios, but can we trust that model?

    We are 1 week away from February. Days are growing longer with the sun angle getting higher.

    I would like “at least ONE” decent snow storm. NOT these piddly 1-3,2-4 inch changeover jobs from a primarily rain event.

    Winter, oh Winter WHERE ARE YOU??????????????????

  6. I echo JP Dave’s comments. I don’t see any real winter on the horizon. Just continued blah with slight changes in temperature. It’s astounding not to see any ice on the Charles in Boston at all; all winter.

    One thing that’s almost a certainty at this point is that it will be a banner season for ticks and other insects. There has been very little moderate to severe frost – as little as I can recall during any winter in my lifetime – and without that insects tend to thrive.

    1. Last year was bad enough for ticks. We use ohDEER and love them. I’ve heard several folks say Sutton is the tick capital of MA and I don’t doubt it. We pull them off the dogs, kids and adults. Last year ohDEER did several added applications.

      My oldest found a tick on her in November. She sent it to the lab and it did test positive for Lyme. She had a four week course of doxy, but is having unusual health issues now. She is scheduling a second round of blood work today.

      And….no one will ever convince me Lyme disease didn’t come from a person working at the plum island lab didn’t bring a tick(s) to the mainland. It is just off of the coast of Lyme,CT

  7. We moved into our house in 2005. The basement and lower field-stone foundation were built in 1738, so we are no stranger to sump pumps and so on. But, this is the first time that there has been water coming in during the entire winter season, well, so far anyway. And this is on the heels of a long dry spell!

    In summary, our Sump Pump Raining Incessantly Never-freezing Gauge (SPRING) confirms what we are seeing this season.

    1. You had me at 1738…. I have goosebumps. Can you just imagine the stories the basement and field stone foundation have to tell….what they have seen. Wow.

  8. Today is January 25th and so far Martha’s Vineyard has had
    MORE snow than Boston. 🙂 🙂

    Just Ducky!!!

  9. It’s a wonder that there haven’t been reports of green stuff sticking out of the ground yet. That will be the next thing the way this winter has been.

    1. I always loved snow days as much as my kids. More time with your kids and still a full day credit. It’s a win win.

  10. Thanks TK.

    Schools let out early here in Coventry CT today as well. We had a few flakes earlier but nothing is hitting the ground now.

    Based on the looks of the short range models last night and this morning as well as the 37F reading on my thermometer, I am not expecting much in the way of snow accumulation before the changeover.

  11. The year of the April Fool’s Blizzard, Logan had 24.7 inches of snow from Dec 1 thru March 30th (the day before the blizzard began)

    1. I’ll be happy if Logan gets that much for this entire season. Hopefully February gets active as TK/WxW have been forecasting.

  12. Did all the kids with early dismissals make it home safe and sound today ?

    That partial sun was blinding …………..

    1. Pathetic. Our schools released late AM today and it is still just cloudy with temps in the mid 30’s. We had partial sun a little while ago as well.

      Meanwhile, on Monday, there was no early release and the afternoon snow resulted in several accidents in the area as kids were coming home from school.

      I am sure the school district will get an earful on the Town Facebook page. Supposedly they have an on call meteorologist they consult but some bad information is getting disseminated.

      1. In all seriousness, I am sorry to here about the accidents on Monday.

        On a less serious note, I’m envious of the teachers in those towns who got to work a half day and I had to work a full day. 🙂 🙂 🙂

        Now, if it was actually snowing out there in those towns …. 🙂 🙂

      2. Is it your district or superintendent that makes the decision. I believe Supers do in MA. As I am sure you know, I will never fault a decision based on what is made with the safety of children in mind. Last night the forecast looked different.

        When my kids were first in school and back in my day, we never knew the night before. Some Parents are part of the reason (please note I am saying part and am not blaming). They find it difficult to make plans at the last minute for their kids.

        All of that said, I really like the way Sutton handled this. It did cancel Monday as it should have. Hindsight is a marvelous thing. Last night parents were notified that a half day would not be decided until morning. Parents had warning.

        I would not want the job any more than I would want to be a met. It’s why I don’t fault. And I want to be very clear that, because I feel that way, does not mean I fault anyone for not agreeing. I’m just explaining how I (just I) look at it.

        1. Superintendent makes the decision. In the situation of an early release call, it would be done in consultation with their on call meteorologist as well as adjacent school district superintendents. For a delayed start or cancellation, they also consult local police and DPW :re condition of roads in the AM.

          It’s frustrating as it was very apparent to me greater than 24 hours in advance that both decisions were going to be the wrong ones.

          1. And I agree that better to be wrong in this situation where you released early out of an abundance of caution. The Monday situation was a disaster as roads were already getting very slick by 2-3PM and the forecast of rain changing to snow with dropping temps was consistent amongst all outlets that I saw….well in advance.

          2. I absolutely understand. Especially with accidents on Monday. I am so sorry about that. Last night Pete and Mike W went up a bit and TK said he was sort of thinking about that. Others were still mentioning possible commute difficulties. Tough call. But does it count as a school day in CT? It does in MA so really no harm no foul.

            1. Yes, as long as they go for a half day, they get credit for the day. Definitely better than a complete cancellation.

  13. Do you expect much flooding tonight in the metro west area? There is not much snow to melt but it looks like a good dose of rain tonight. Thanks.

  14. Snowing steadily here now with a light coating forming on the deck in the area that I cleared from the Monday storm. Temp down to 34. Road and driveway is just wet.

  15. Quick check-in in a very busy day / evening…

    A down-tweak in the snow amounts was definitely the right path to take in this slightly weaker / warmer low pressure scenario. This is a very, very different system than the one we had Monday.

    Nice day tomorrow to continue to eliminate ice hazards that linger, since it will be above freezing in most of the region most of tonight and tomorrow, only to go below tomorrow night.

    Not really any need to change anything in my discussion above so that stands as is until tomorrow morning’s update.

    Eyeing 3 potential winter weather events in the first 10 days of February. That’s all I can say right now, because that’s all I know right now.

    Have a good evening!

  16. Congrats NYC, looks like they are going to break the record….

    NWS New York NY
    @NWSNewYorkNY

    Only a trace of snow has been recorded at Central Park today. The changeover to rain has taken place. 1/29/1973 was the latest 1st measurable snow at 1.8″ since records began in 1869. If no measurable snowfall occurs by Jan 29, this season will replace the current record. #NYCwx

    1. Wikipedia: Sastrugi, or zastrugi, are features formed by erosion of snow by wind. They are found in polar regions, and in snowy, wind-swept areas of temperate regions, such as frozen lakes or mountain ridges. Sastrugi are distinguished by upwind-facing points, resembling anvils, which move downwind as the surface erodes.

    1. Forecast is right on track. This was never going to be much of a snow event anyway, especially where you would be.
      Gotta pay attention to location and timing. 🙂

  17. Light snow here in Woburn. We’ll easily end up under 1 inch here. Not enough from batch 1, which is anemic to begin with, and a big dry slot between it and the heaviest stuff, which will fall as rain.

    1. Interesting that the dry slot got involved with the “snow” portion but not the “rain” one. 😉

      1. Actually this is not true. We’ve had many a rain-event obliterated by dry air. I’ve said it many times.

    1. I’ve lost complete track of what Is dependable and what is not.

      Anyone want to create a scorecard or maybe I’ll start recording these posts.

      Thanks Mark

      1. It changes. There is almost nothing that is consistently good or consistently bad. So it’s impossible to keep track other than some of the better known biases. 🙂

  18. Precip starting up again here…as rain. So much for that dusting on the deck from the 45 minutes of snow we had earlier!

      1. It has taken me several minutes to stop laughing so that I could type. Well played, North. Very well played

  19. Thanks TK.

    In my college days (way back when, 5 years ago 😉 ) my classmates would rib me about how often I showed the HRRR in our weather seminar briefings. All in good fun, but even back then, prior to a couple of major upgrades, it was my short range go-to model. That hasn’t changed – in fact, it’s at least one NCEP model where the “upgrades” seem to have actually been upgrades.

    Like any model, it’s still imperative you know its limitations, and it certainly does still get things wrong. Every event is different. And I think getting a new model run every hour probably does more harm than good – I’d rather they keep the 48 hour runs 4x/day and dump at least some of the intermediate runs, maybe run it every other hour versus every hour. But when I get asked what my favorite or “go-to” model is, it still tops the list for short range. And that has been the case so far out West as well 🙂

    1. Saw that. Do I believe it verbatim? No. But, is the trend our friend? Also no.

      It’s just not our kind of winter.

      I have officially thrown in the towel.

      One thing I would never have predicted is that a winter could be more blah than 2011-2012. This one has been and then some (much more gray), and will likely continue to be, going forward.

      1. At least in the winter of 2011-12, I already had 10” of snow by October 31. Took till January 23 to get there this year!

        I am not throwing in the towel yet but if the first half of February doesn’t produce, I’ll be getting close.

        Happy to at least see this storm train producing up north and the ski season turning around. That is one key difference from 2011-12.

      1. Love seeing the name of the town – Bow – which you’ve mentioned before. When I see it I think of all the visits I made to my mother between 2013 and 2019. Bow is where I would turn off I-93 to get onto I-89. I would always see the water tower on my right, which has BOW, NH on it.

        Then, the easiest part of my journey would commence; that beautiful 60 mile stretch – in any season – to Lebanon/Hanover NH.

        1. What wonderful memories. Thank you for sharing. We often made the trip up 89 to Hanover. It is a lovely area.

    2. The 18z GFS had no support from the ensembles, and the 00z op run shows a better representation of the pattern ahead, though again the precise surface features don’t matter too much after day 4.

  20. Edgartown on Martha’s Vineyard has snowfall records back to 1946. They had more snow for the winter than Boston did in 1988-89, 1998-99, and 2011-12, so this is not unprecedented. They also were within 2 inches of Boston’s seasonal total 4 other times.

    1. SAK, you’re a wealth of historical weather knowledge. I love it. I would not have thought that MV would have beaten Boston 3 times and come so close on 4 other occasions.

    2. Boston during those winters didn’t give the Cape much competition to start with:

      1988-89 = 15.5”
      1998-99 = 36.4”
      2011-12 = 9.3”

      At least the Cape has never received more snow than Boston in “consecutive” seasons. Still somewhat embarrassing though. Hopefully 2022-23 won’t be added to the list.

      1. If you think about how our winters work, the most likely type of year for MVY to come in ahead of BOS on snowfall would be a very lean year, and history shows that, even if it’s only under 100 years of comparison.

  21. My little weather icon on my computer is so British this month. Seriously, nearly every day there’s an umbrella and it says “cloudy,” “rain”, “light rain”, or “heavy rain,” and occasionally “wintry mix.” I’m shocked when it says “sunny.”

    I love Britain, but not a fan of British weather.

    TK likes any weather. I admire that. I wish I could be that way.

    1. I was walking around in moderate rain & sleet earlier and loving every moment of it. I’ll even turn my face upward to feel the pellets hitting me.

    1. Worcester had 0.3 inch of snow, bringing the total to 17.2 inches. Boston had no measurable snow – they recorded a trace.

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