Sunday February 12 2023 Forecast (7:21AM)

64 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 12-16)

A pleasant winter Sunday finishes off our weekend today. It starts bright but ends less so as clouds advance ahead of approaching low pressure. The low is destined to pass southeast of New England on Monday, with its precipitation shield, in the form of rain, getting into the South Coast region, but not much further north than that – perhaps up to the Plymouth MA area. I’m taking the end-of-system snow chance out of the Outer Cape Cod region because the system will be moving too quickly and the air that is cold enough to support any snow will not be in place quickly enough. Behind this system comes a small but potent disturbance to pass through the region early Tuesday with the possibility of snow showers, favoring southern NH and northeastern MA, where spotty minor accumulations may occur. This moves out quickly though and the balance of Tuesday is nice, but on the cool side. The return of milder air on Wednesday will trigger cloudiness and possible spotty rain shower activity, but I don’t think we get a clean warm frontal passage initially – I think we get a wavy boundary in the region, so we have to wait on Thursday for another surge of warmth to arrive, probably with a lot of clouds and some additional potential rain. This has me doubting the magnitude of warmth being advertised by some outlets, although it will most certainly be a day of very mild air by February standards either way. So I leave a little bit of fine-tuning to do for the end of the 5-day forecast period and move on to the details the best I have them now…

TODAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 45-52. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming SW.

TONIGHT: Thickening clouds. Rain likely South Coast. Chance of rain up to South Shore. Lows 35-42. Wind SW up to 10 MPH early, shifting to E 5-15 MPH overnight.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Morning rain Cape Cod / Islands. Highs 42-49. Wind NE 10-20 MPH except possibly stronger in coastal areas, shifting to NW.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Snow showers possible southern NH and northeastern MA with spotty minor accumulations. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Lots of clouds with possible snow showers favoring southeastern NH and eastern MA early, then mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25, 11-18 in normal cold spots. Wind calm.

WEDNESDAY: Early sun, then lots of clouds with a chance of rain showers. Highs 50-57 by late. Wind calm early, then SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds. Chance of a rain shower. Lows 43-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusty.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of rain by late-day. Highs 58-65, possibly cooler South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 17-21)

Fridays seem to be our dramatic day of the week this month, from arctic outbreak on February 3 to warm surge on February 10, and now February 17 looks like a warm start, strong cold front to pass with showers and wind, and much colder finish. Timing of the front may be earlier and warmth may be shorter lived – will monitor that. Following this looks to be a drier period of weather, chilly over the February 18-19 weekend, milder after.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 22-26)

Pattern gets more interesting here as we see the Southeast ridge flatten a bit and colder air dominating Canada and not far away. Boundary nearby, watch for a series of low pressure systems to start impacting our region. Probably on the mild side of these initially, but that may change with time…

64 thoughts on “Sunday February 12 2023 Forecast (7:21AM)”

  2. Thanks TK.

    Exactly one month from today, we go back to DST. *Sigh* 🙁

    I just realized that February and March match each other “calendar”wise. Will the “landscape” match as well?

  4. Been on this earth a long time…can’t remember a winter (to date) that was warmer than this. I’m a snow lover, but the closer we get to the end of February the more I want winter to end. Hoping for no major storms through the rest of the season.

    1. There are several that have been to date.
      The difference is the persistence.
      This is probably the most stable winter pattern that I’ve seen. By stable I mean unchanging.

    1. This should be a great game. Eagles with much more talent, but if mahomes ankle sprain has healed a lot in 2 weeks, then the less talented team has the best player at the most important position.

      1. I am not a fan of either team but think I’ll pick KC. But then every team I’ve wanted to win this playoff season has lost so maybe root foe the eagles. I like them less 🙂

  9. Per Facebook memories, it seems today is the 10 yr anniversary of the winter storm they named “Nemo”.

    We’ve been in marshfield for 21+ years and in our time frame, it’s the winter storm that I judge all other winter storms by.

    The combination of wet snow and wind caused most of town to be without power for several days. The wind caused a lot of coastal flooding and there was a significant amount of wet snow. The national guard was around town for a few to many days.

    1. Of all the storm names that they have used I think that is the only one that stuck with the majority of people. I couldn’t tell you what they named any other ones by memory. Most other people probably can’t either. 😉

  10. Thank you, TK.

    I concur with Mel. I’ve never experienced a milder winter. Really a non-winter. I know that 2011-2012 was milder – well, thus far – but even that winter felt colder and more wintry at times.

    Dutch mets continue to declare winter over in their part of the world. Winter also never really started there, with the exception of a short period in December. Tranquil spring-like conditions – similar to what you often get in Holland in March – began 10 days ago and will continue for the foreseeable future. Lots of 50s, and for Holland relatively more sunshine.

    1. I was following Gabrielle. It was a strong hurricane, then transitioned to a strong extra-tropical system upon closest pass to New Zealand.

      As you mention, they have previously had a lot of rain, so they were worried about how much rain Gabrielle may bring.

  14. So, as Paul Harvey would say … “and now you know the rest of the story” …..

    When we were in Boca in August to help my daughter set up at college, we booked this Feb stay in Ft Lauderdale.

    She struggled to like the 1st semester experience at college that far from home but said she would stay there the whole year.

    Well, when she got off the plane in January, returning for semester 2, she realized she couldn’t do another semester down there.

    In a week, she and my wife who was down there, got her checked out and signed up locally at a college up here for this semester, so she is in college and happy. And, selfishly, I’m glad she’s back.

    But, we decided to keep the trip. The only person who is not going there is my daughter who now has a different vacation.

    I’m glad we kept it. I am physically and emotionally spent from the school year and need to get out of New England for a bit.

    1. With regard to your last paragraph, I suppose that’s what teaching at the Middle School level will do. 😉

      Enjoy Tom! 🙂

    3. Tom. What a great job you daughter did sticking out the first half of the year. And you and Mrs Tom just make me smile …she is a very lucky young lady to have such great support; and I’d say it sure sounds as if you’re lucky parents. I’m glad it worked out. And sure understand your need to just get away. I hope you enjoy every millisecond.

  15. Horn Pond in Woburn is approximately 85% ice covered today.

    On this date one year ago it was approximately 85% ice covered.

    The difference between last year and this year is the ice cover pretty much just got this way last week whereas last year it was ice covered before the end of December and in the process of starting to melt after a February mild spell that followed a cold January.

    Tale of two Winters in the same La Nina. 😉

  16. In the parts of Turkey and Syria impacted by the devastating earthquake – death toll is 33,000 and rising – it’s been quite cold. This has hampered some of the rescue efforts, but also made it very difficult for displaced persons. This is a catastrophe of unimaginable magnitude.

    1. I read the numbers and the reports and honestly, Joshua, I truly cannot begin to wrap my head around it. It is a nightmare.

  17. Thanks TK!

    One thing I’ll be interested in for the Northeast and especially mid-Atlantic this spring: agriculture. We kind of hear every year when the inevitable wintertime mild days occur “Oh, the plants are gonna start blooming!” And while there are some that can and do, it’s never very significant or unusual, ecologically.

    But this year may be different. The sustained warmth the region will have experienced between the end of the cold snap and at least through the next 10 days is probably unprecedented for the time of year. Particularly for the mid-Atlantic, where some places are going to struggle to go below freezing at night for a long time. Days are getting noticeably longer (the biggest factor in plant growth). What are things going to look like in another couple of weeks? What are the implications for farmers this season, given that we know there will eventually be periods of colder weather by later this month or next? I’m not an expert on it by any means, and maybe it won’t be a big deal at all, but something I’ll be watching.

    Also, eastern brush fire season. Lack of snow cover and resultant drier soils, combined with potential for a premature “false” green-up and ensuing killing freezes that could lead to the “real” green-up actually being later than normal, favorable conditions for wildfire. I tend to think a wetter (and potentially whiter) pattern will come back in eventually to alleviate this, but if not, this will be something to watch.

      1. I saw that as well; the article I read made it sound like this had happened in another recent year, maybe even last year, and that it was an unfortunate but not unheard of occurrence. I’d have to imagine peaches are a tricky crop to grow in New England…

        I believe TK has worked with agricultural clients before, he may have more insight on the matter, both the peaches and what other crops, if any, we should be concerned about.

        2. I added a comment just below. Peaches are very tricky here, but they also make up a very small percentage of what is grown in New England so a failed peach crop, while being inconvenient for people who love to go peach picking or buy area peaches, it doesn’t tend to have a huge impact on the overall agricultural $ intake. Nor will it do much to drive up prices. That’s pretty negligible here. California produces a gigantic percentage of our peach crop in the US, and dwarfs the production of 2nd place Georgia and 3rd place South Carolina. So its impact will really only be region, and not lasting.

          2. Thanks TK, that’s what I figured with the peaches. Stinks for those looking to pick them but not a crop farmers in the Northeast would stake a business on, with negligible economic/supply results to losing them.

  18. Ice cover in downtown Boston – on Charles and in and around Esplanade – is practically zero at this point. We did have some ice last week, but the wind prevented it from forming consistently across the Charles. It perhaps got half way. Then once the wind died down, the temps warmed up. I did see Canada geese skating on the thin layer of ice. Periodically this winter there’s been a limited amount of ice in the lagoon part for the geese to stand on and do some skating when they feel motivated. The geese do seem ready for spring. They’re pairing up, squawking a lot about the weather (I think I heard one of them say “La Niña), and aggressively challenging every jogger who might be in their way to a goose fight.

  20. While the East is still projected mild in the 6-10 & 8-14 ranges by CPC today, the colder than normal temps that are mainly from the Continental Divide westward in the 6-10 expand eastward through the Plains to the western Midwest as well in the 8-14 as more cold air invades the Lower 48 but still kept out of the East by the “Southeast ridge of La Nina” – a costume I am thinking of designing for next Halloween. 😉

  21. Eric mentioned on air the other day that the peach crop is likely to fail. A few years back it happened as well. I searched everywhere and the local farmers markets had absolutely nothing that upcoming summer.

    I love fresh peaches. Say it ain’t so. 🙁

    1. Peaches are probably the most delicate of our area crops., at least the “popular” ones. This set-up has not been favorable. The good thing is a lot of farms that grow them rely on many other New England crops so they shouldn’t suffer all that badly in the long run.

  22. It’s going to be close later this week, but I think some temperature records will be broken. What is interesting is the range of temperatures this month. I think we’ll reach 70F at least once this month (65F seems like a safe bet). Boston’s low was -10F (I think). That’s quite the range. My guess is that March generally has the greatest range. I recall a week in March 1998 (might have been 1999) in which we had a 5 inch snowstorm followed by a dramatic warm-up. It got to 89F, as I recall. Tim Kelley was giving a forecast during that week. it had a map of New England, in which parts of SNE were in the 90s and it was snowing in Van Buren, Maine. I’ll never forget that map.

    1. Medium range guidance is not as gung-ho about the record warmth. Maybe a few challenged on Thursday. I think too much cloud cover and too quick for the front to do anything for warm records on Friday.

      1. It doesn’t need to hit 60 like last Friday , temps in the mid 40s is a huge thumbs up , this winter has been as easy as it gets to date . Clock is ticking as February & March are two different months ( yes it can & does snow in March & April !!

        1. Trust me I’m embracing the “easy” winter this year. Between the window project and the currently daily trips to hospital and soon rehab, it’s been much easier. I can’t imaging trying to navigate this in the amount of snow we had on the ground at the end of last January, or something like 2015… Yes I could do it, but shuttling my mom around would be very challenging.

          1. Yes, indeed. That is important, TK. I definitely recognize that.

            My preference for cold and snow gets trumped by MUCH more important things – like what you and your family are going through – any day of the week.

          2. I cringe when I think of getting to Dana and Brigham weekly in Boston in 2015. It was a breath of fresh air when we switched to Milford dana but that was after most of the snow. I am really happy you don’t have to deal with that.

          3. Indeed , really hope your brother is doing better . If I can do anything Tk , you know how to reach me . Go Eagles !!!

  23. I want the Eagles to win, but why did the Philly fans boo Dak Prescott for winning the Walter Payton award? Dak is a good human being. He’s humble and does a ton for the community.

          1. I know. I was shocked. Game was very good. Commercials were awful save a few. Halftime show was….well I don’t know what it was.

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