Tuesday March 7 2023 Forecast (7:14AM)

106 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 7-11)

A large low pressure area east and northeast of New England will give us a gusty breeze and some of its cloudiness at times during the next few days, along with a couple chances of passing light snow and rain showers, but most of the time will be dry. The low pulls away and high pressure moves in for Friday with fair and more tranquil weather. Watching a storm system for the beginning of the weekend. Right now, model camps are split – one hit, one graze, one miss. I’m leaning toward this system not reach us on Saturday other than spreading some of its high clouds into the sky.

TODAY: Cloud/sun intervals. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind NNW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A passing light rain or snow shower possible. Highs 38-45. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. A passing light rain or snow shower possible. Highs 39-46. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 27-34.Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 20-27. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 12-16)

There’s some uncertainty as to how 2 storm systems will impact the region. Current idea is that #1 will pass just south of the region during March 12 with lots of clouds but mostly a miss for its precipitation shield, and #2 will move up and into the region during the March 13-15 period with unsettled weather including rain and snow, details to be determined. Dry weather returning at the end of the period. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 17-21)

Watching one more potential storm system that may impact the region with a variety of precipitation as we count down the final days of winter and welcome spring (Equinox on March 20). Temperatures mostly below normal.

106 thoughts on “Tuesday March 7 2023 Forecast (7:14AM)”

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.
    For those wishing snow, climatology is increasingly against us. Not that it can’t still snow, just getting more and more difficult. I honestly don ‘t think Boston adds much to its season total the rest of the way.

    3. Boston has received a foot or more from a single storm after March 7 just 7 times.

      25.4″ March 31-April 1, 1997
      14.5″ March 13, 2018
      13.3″ April 6-8, 1982
      13.3″ March 19-20, 1956
      12.8″ March 13-14, 1993
      12.0″ March 18, 1892
      12.0″ March 11-14, 1888

  8. Non weather but 40 years ago tonight the most watched final TV show episode of all time aired. Any guesses on which show?

    Ps for my FB friends No peaking

    2. I know the answer just because I was a fan of the show itself. In fact, I know the top 3. One of them we should all know, Cheers and the other was my favorite show, The Fugitive.

      But neither of these is what Vicki is referring to.

      1. Some awesome tv back then. Loved cheers and the fugitive. I watched MASH for the third time not long ago.

        Friends is another favorite. I think its finale was 5.

        1. The stupidest final episode was Seinfeld. I rarely watched that show anyway but I did see the last one and it didn’t leave me remembering it in a good way.

  9. Thanks, TK.

    I echo what JPD said above. In the snow department, it’s just not Boston’s year. At this point, I don’t think Boston adds any measurable snow.

    1. Rather fitting that Boston’s seasonal snowfall finishes in the top-5. It was #1 for most of the season. 😉

      Couldn’t even at least give Worcester a run for its money, not that it had a real prayer anyway.

      1. It’s NOT done yet, despite what I posted above. 🙂
        I have a feeling not much will be added, but all it
        takes is one system down the road. 🙂

  12. Thanks, TK. Not giving up on any big snowstorm yet. Again, we could have one in April. Sure, the snow will melt fast, but we could still get a decent snowstorm. Admittedly, it would be weird. But then, everything including weather is getting weirder every day. And I wonder if temps. will get higher as the coming spring approaches. Flowers blooming, etc. then a big snowstorm. I don’t know. The only thing I have noticed for many months how many windy days there have been.

  17. CF, thanks for reminding us all of the great Peter Wolf. I like this impromptu performance he gave at a record store in Newburyport. He used to be a `neighbor’ of mine. He may still be, but I haven’t seen him in a while. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K6crG0YrbaI

    Fun fact, Wolf was married to Faye Dunaway from 1974 to 1979.

    1. At this point your biggest obstacle is getting out of Logan without a near miss on the runway. 🙂

  20. Reminder: it’s not time to call Boston’s snowfall “final”. We don’t do that in early March. Winter runs until March 20. Climatology supports snow in the city into April. Simple facts.

    And you don’t do things like that based on gut feeling. You do them based on science. The only correct way.

  21. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh_nb&rh=2023030712&fh=72&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

    GFS, hr 72

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=500wh_nb&rh=2023030712&fh=72&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

    Euro, hr 72

    Pretty good agreement, looking to our east and seeing that upper level low. Feeling pretty confident system has to turn southeast and end up well south of us this weekend.

    Of course, if the upper low moves out of the way in enough time, I suppose the system won’t get deflected as much to the southeast.

  22. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023030712&fh=78&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023030712&fh=78&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Good agreement, unfortunately, 3 days out for California.

    Lots of moisture, but a warmer storm. Much higher elevations to see snow.

    Plenty of elevations probably in the 4,000-8,000 ft range that have incredible snow depths that may get multi inch rains in this system.

  24. I’m rooting for a miss this weekend–sending my 8th grader off to Israel for 2 weeks on Sunday evening and would love for her to not have any weather related impact to her very full two weeks….I’d also like to maximize my 2 week break from 14 year old moodiness!

    1. I am forecasting a scrape or miss this weekend and a hit around March 14, but personally I’d root for the opposite to be true, so I’m actually rooting against my own forecast from a “what I want” standpoint. 😉

      Yes, I’ll take whatever comes, as everybody knows, but I have reasons while I’d prefer one over the other. 🙂 Yet, we have no control over the outcome! So we’ll see…

  26. Regarding the above wondering if Boston will squeeze out just one more measurable snow. They have time to squeeze out several.

    Today is March 7.

    Nevermind the rest of March, but Boston has recorded measurable snow in APRIL on 63 years since 1890. It’s not uncommon.

    I think we can finally put the late season snow debate to rest now (again, for the 14th straight year here, but this time for good). 🙂 In fact there has never even been a debate to have. Facts are facts. You cannot argue straight up scientific data that proves something.

    Yes, it can snow in Boston in March, AND April. Yes. The answer is yes. It can. Don’t count it out based on how little they have had this season. That’s not how it works. 😉

    And never ever EVER count snowfall out based on computer models. That’s a joke, and a big mistake to boot. 😉

          1. What’s funny is I didn’t even catch that you had the wrong year. 😉 I think I just filled it in in my mind. haha!

        2. Well, Boston did have 1/2 inch on May 9-10 1977, but the suburbs had considerably more and the tree damage was extensive – we’d leafed out early too because of a warm spell before that snow event!

          Does anybody know the one other year that Boston recorded measurable snow in May? HINT: It was before 1977.

      2. About 8 to 10 inches of mashed potatoes here from that one. There were big globs of snow falling out of the trees during the day on the 29th. A lot of that snow had fallen during the overnight / early morning hours. 🙂

        Considerable tree damage too. 🙁

  27. Quick look at 12z data…

    I haven’t like the GFS’s handling of much of anything outside of a couple days and have put very little faith in any of its projections. For the most part this has proven to be the right decision, and I’ve gone that way again.

    While the GFS seems to be making a correction regarding the weekend system, which I think will be a scrape or a miss, we’ll see if it keeps going that way. Meanwhile the GEM & ECMWF seem “ok” to me.

    I think the follow-up low has a better shot of making more of a direct hit on New England with any p-type scenario on the table, including frozen. And this meteorology talking – not wishcasting, in case anybody is wondering. 😉

    If I am “rooting” for a particular outcome, it will be apparent in plain English in any comment I am doing that in. (See above.) 🙂

    1. Yup miss for this weekend and rainorama for the next one.
      How else could it possibly be? 🙂
      Yeah I know, frozen is still on the table, But I think it rolled off. 🙂

      1. I don’t know. There are 2 set-ups that interest me unlike others this season (except one in January).

        One is early next week – the other is after that.

        1. Hope you are correct. 🙂 Would be nice.

          Euro shows a nice system, just a little too far West.
          PLENTY of time.

  28. While I don’t think Boston will have any more measurable snow this season, that’s a gut feeling and NOT scientifically based. I completely agree with TK that it can and often does snow in Boston, not only in March but also April and sometimes May.

    So, when I say it’s just not been Boston’s year for snow, I mean it literally as far as this winter up until now is concerned, and it’s my gut feeling – not science-based – going forward that this will continue.

    By the way, today was a March beauty. I took full advantage of the cool breeze and some filtered sun by going on a long run along the Charles.

      1. I’ll declare it as well I have a strong gut feeling we are done with any significant snow this season for areas at least Boston south . March is moving along & with each passing day I think it gets harder & harder & I know it can happen like the rare April event years ago .

        1. Actually, the pattern is getting more supportive. It’s not just the calendar. It’s the weather pattern you have to take into account. This is why we don’t have “normal” weather every day of the year.

          1. While it may not be as common as mid winter, I can remember a number of snow storms in March and April. I could easily be wrong about the years, but I seem to think we had April snow in the area in 2020 and 2021

            1. Boston had measurable snow in April in both 2020 and 2021, and a trace in 2022.

      2. Agree!

        In my field of economics gut feelings can and do come up, especially when predicting certain things like interest rate changes. Based on gut feelings people will say things like “I think that Powell will raise interest rates at the next Fed meeting.” When pressed, they may respond, “it’s just a hunch.” Nothing wrong with that. But, it’s better to use some evidence to back it up, like “here’s Powell’s latest public statement,” or “the economy’s too hot at the moment, which is driving up wages and inflation, the Fed must respond.”

        Weather is of course very different from economics. For one thing, our behavior doesn’t influence the weather. Nevertheless, mets do cite short- and long-term historical data and model trends as factors that inform their current thinking on what the future will look like. And, the modeling errors in meteorology and economics are analogous: Garbage in, garbage out, applies in both disciplines.

  29. Very light snow falling here in Woburn (and surrounding areas) .. the first “spoke” from the offshore storm.

      1. It picks up at times here. Tiny flakes but coming in waves. I’m at the local pond and it’s rather blustery and wintry….

  31. I read back in the whw archives. I love that we have such a great history.

    April 18 2022 WHW blog began “You never call the snow season over in February, March, or even April, around here….”

    We had 3”

    April 16 2021 WHW blog began “Our first significant storm in a while is in progress…..”

    We had a bit more than 3”

  32. “Blink-The Power of Thinking Without Thinking” by Malcolm Gladwell. Interesting read that deals a lot with “gut thinking”.

  34. My gut is now full of Chinese food. Not sure if that’s a good or a bad feeling. Food was good, but I ate too much.

    JRW, thanks for the Malcolm Gladwell suggestion.

    And yes, it’s flurrying lightly in downtown Boston. At least it was when I was out and about a half hour ago.

    1. I had some great pork fried rice today – but it was made fresh at my work. 🙂

  36. We continue to snow very lightly to at times more steady lightly and have received a dusting here in Woburn.

  37. The flurries/light snow are nice Vicki and TK !

    With the low dps, the moistening of the air has really cooled off the temps.

    It’s 30F at Logan.

  38. Eric F has a tweet this evening. It hits what drives me nuts about New England.

    # of days with 50F+ high temps:

    Dec, Jan and Feb: 8 EACH month

    Now watch: we’ll be lucky to get 2 or 3 in all of March

    The last decade or so as a whole, it’s fealt like …..

    Mild winters
    Cold springs
    Decent June’s
    Sweltering Jul/Aug
    Meh autumns

    2. Yes, though 2011 and 2015 were quite cold and snowy. And, last winter wasn’t exactly mild. Can’t recall the summers of 2011 and 2015.

      1. 2011 June was much like 1982 June. Cold and drizzzly and raw. I know there has been one since 2011 that I compared to those but cannot recall if it was 2015

    3. Last spring was mild after a cold January.
      We’ve had a handful of cooler than normal Junes.
      Not all summers have been overly hot.
      And the majority of autumns have been mild and dry.

      My perception is not entirely the same.
      But I do agree with the last 10 to 20 years of cooler springs overall and mild autumns overall – which I firmly believe is at least partially a product of AMO (still a lot to learn about it but NWS is starting to focus on that more as they are learning there’s quite a bit to the phenomenon).

      There is also a thing called “recency bias” which twists are perception of a longer period of time. This factors in for sure.

      1. Yes. It should correct a bit more south from there too.

        It’s the one after that I think is coming up. And that one may produce some decent snowfall, even in Boston.

    2. I missed where you kids are headed. I hope you also have a safe flight and a wonderful vacation.

  41. Is it that the GFS is so poor or …. has the euro received an upgrade ?

    Euro seems to be trending up.

    Had the upcoming weekend system south first and it has a big hit for early next week where gfs is a miss. Let’s see who got that one early.

    1. The ECMWF in its current incarnation handles this pattern better. The GFS is useless outside of a week, mostly useless in the 4-7 day range, and a little better inside 4 but still inferior. Yes, it’s that bad.

      The ECMWF can easily fall into a “slump” in the next pattern. The GFS will remain unreliable until fixed (assuming the fix(es) work).

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