Monday March 13 2023 Forecast (6:24AM)

476 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 13-17)

Today’s a quiet but cloudy day, with our clouds a combination of broken low clouds from our adjacent ocean underneath a canopy of thickening high to middle clouds in advance of an approaching storm from the southwest. A little bit of rain may sneak into the region this afternoon in advance of the main storm system. A moderate to high impact, long-duration late winter storm is next up from later tonight to early Wednesday. This is going to come about when a low pressure area moving eastward from the Great Lakes combines with low pressure moving north northeastward from off the Mid Atlantic Coast to just south southeast of New England. During its life cycle, the resultant storm will take the form of a slightly elongated center that will eventually consolidate into a more symmetrical center, doing a fairly tight cyclonic loop as it’s captured by the upper level low pressure area associated with it. Where this all takes place and how it behaves is key to what we see across the area for rain vs. snow, and of course snowfall amounts. A system like this comes with a fairly high potential for the forecast for some areas to not work out well, and this can include both under-performing and over-performing snowfall production. Keep this in mind when you see my snowfall expectations posted below. However, snowfall is not the only aspect of this upcoming storm. Wind will be a factor too, as well as coastal flooding to some degree, though limited. Let’s break down each aspect of the storm…

Precipitation: Starts as mix/snow across southwestern NH and the higher terrain of Worcester County in MA, and starts as rain in all other locations, moving in from southwest to northeast during the late night Monday to early morning Tuesday. The rapid deepening of the low center will initiate dynamic cooling, bringing cold air down from above, most rapidly where precipitation is heaviest but also a tendency to happen from northwest to southeast. This combination can sometimes prevent a clear-cut rain/snow line, with the changeover happening in a more irregular fashion. The last places to see this changeover take place should be the South Coast and Cape Cod as well as the Islands. Unless an area is under a heavy snow band, some of the snowfall will have a difficult time accumulating, especially the closer to the coast you are, during the daylight hours of Tuesday, but as darkness falls, the accumulation ability will improve quickly and that is when I am expecting most it to take place. The snow should then taper off from west to east in the pre-dawn to mid morning hours of Wednesday, and as the precipitation becomes light and more spotty, the dynamic cooling process will stop, and some of the showers will be falling as rain or a rain/snow mix, though this will be insignificant precipitation anyway by that point.

Snowfall totals for the event: Slushy coating to 2 inches Cape Cod / Islands as well as the immediate South Coast westward through RI and CT, 2-4 inches interior southeastern CT through south central RI to just inland from the MA South Coast up through the MA South Shore, as well as the tip of Cape Ann MA, 4-8 inches northeastern CT and northern RI through the I-90 and I-95 belt including Providence to Boston’s Metro West including the city of Boston (except 2-4 inches Logan Airport) and up to the immediate NH Seacoast, 8-12 inches central MA and interior southern NH lower elevations eastward to the I-495 region north of I-90, and 12-16 inches in the higher terrain of central MA and interior southern NH. Caveats for snowfall include the potential for lower amounts with a closer low center loop and a dry slot working into some southeastern areas, but a low probability of this occurring, or a potentially higher swath of snowfall (greater than 4 inches in my 2-4 inch area) in southeastern MA with a low center loop slightly further east and stronger snowfall banding resulting in this region. Adjustments will be made in the comments section (and next blog post) if necessary.

Wind: No issue Monday evening with just light to moderate east to northeast wind. Increases steadily and quickly Tuesday, peaking during the afternoon and evening while backing from northeast to north. Peak wind gusts are expected to be 35-45 MPH inland, strongest in higher elevations, and 45-55 MPH in coastal areas with occasional gusts above 55 MPH possible. These winds will gradually diminish while blowing from the north and northwest during Wednesday as the low center pulls away from the area.

Power outage potential: With temperatures not far from freezing, and in some cases slightly above freezing where it snows, snow load can become a problem for trees and power lines, and combined with strong, gusty winds, this will likely lead to scattered power outages, especially where snow load / wind gust combo is maximized.

Coastal flooding threat: Fortunately, this aspect of the storm will be limited due to astronomically low tides and strongest winds more from the north than directly onshore over a larger portion of the coastline. However, northeast-facing and north-facing shores most vulnerable will likely see minor to moderate flooding during high tide times Tuesday to early Wednesday.

Commute impacts: No issues Monday evening. Wet roads all coastal areas and metro Boston for Tuesday morning commute. Slushy roads at least partially snowcovered unless plowed in higher elevations of the interior. Tuesday evening commute most likely to see snow on road issues, most extensively away from the shores with more of a tendency for slushy or just wet roads right along the coastline unless snowing heavily at any given time. Just wet roads expected for the Wednesday morning commute and no issues for the evening one.

After the storm leaves us, improvement is expected for later Wednesday, and especially Thursday as high pressure builds in for a nice mid March Day, favorable for cleanup and recovery efforts in hardest-hit locations. Friday, a trough will approach from the west, and while surface high pressure tries to hang on, a warm front will head up from the southwest and across the region with some cloudiness, though precipitation chances seem to be rather low with this boundary based on current medium range guidance. Will reassess this potential during the week. One thing looks pretty certain, and that is a push of milder air arriving to end the week. By that time, the vast majority of the snow that will have fallen from our upcoming storm will be gone.

TODAY: Cloudy. Highs 39-46. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Rain arrives except starting as mix/snow interior highest elevations of southwestern NH and north central MA. Lows 33-40. Wind E-NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts in coastal areas.

TUESDAY: Overcast. Snow well inland and higher elevations. Rain changing to snow elsewhere. Snow will become heavy at times. Temperatures fall slightly to 30-37. Wind NE-N 15-25 MPH inland and 25-35 MPH coast, with gusts above 30 MPH inland and above 50 MPH coast.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow tapers off gradually but still can be heavy at times in the evening. See above discussion for total accumulation expectations. Lows 28-35. Wind N 15-35 MPH, higher gusts especially in coastal areas.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with snow and rain showers likely, becoming more isolated with time. Highs 35-42. Wind N-NW 15-30 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy early, then clearing. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 41-48. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 26-33. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 43-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 18-22)

Watch for a frontal boundary to pass through with a possible wave of low pressure on it bringing the good chance of precipitation – likely rain as it will be on the mild side for Saturday March 18. Breezy, dry, colder weather arrives for Sunday March 19. The early to middle part of next week looks mostly dry to start but there may be a storm threat before the end of the period with the potential for some precipitation.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 23-27)

One or two low pressure systems can impact the region with unsettled weather. Temperatures mostly below normal.

476 thoughts on “Monday March 13 2023 Forecast (6:24AM)”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK, Great discussion.

    I just came out of my laboratory as a failure. I couldn’t produce a time warp. However, with the model warbling, I have lost the rest of my hair. This system has made me bald!!!

    The HRRR made me throw up my dinner last night and the 6Z run has given me a relapse!

    Just once, I’d like to see all of the models closer together, but wait, most are fairly consistent.

    However, these are all bad outcomes for snow

    HRRR
    UKMET
    ICON

    can dimiss the ICON, but the other 2 gives me pause.
    The HRRR changed yesterday, while the UKMET has preached the same gospel ALL along.

    Wonder what putrid changes the 12Z runs bring.

    And WHY do we have to wait an extra hour? OH wait, it’s the stupid day light savings misery!!!!!

    The NWS backed off the snow in Eastern Sections.

    https://www.weather.gov/images/box/winter/StormTotalSnow.jpg

    Very similar to TK’s projections

    1. Thank you for playing along. 🙂

      I think with the NWS they first under-reacted, then over-reacted, then fine-tuned (the best they could) to a place that if it were up to me, I’d have put them from first call. But I’m not them and it’s not my call. 🙂

      1. All in fun.

        I think you nailed it with regards to NWS.

        Here’s hoping dynamic cooling is rapid and happens early
        AND most importantly, the loop stays off shore and does not
        move the system Westward over land. That would be bad bad bad bad and cut off the snow not too long after it starts!!!!

  4. 9Z RAP. I Forgot about this one. The loop Comes too far West like the HRRR!

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2023031309&fh=31&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2023031309&fh=34&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023031309&fh=51&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    SO, that makes 4 of them for a bad outcome (IF one wants snow, otherwise better outcome)

    1. I just threw up again looking at it. Who ever decided it would be good to create that one???????????????????????????

  8. Rarely have I seen, that I can recall, a system perform a loop in eastern Mass, over land.

    So, while I understand what some of the 00z and 06z stuff are showing, I think the loop is still likely to be mostly out over the ocean. It might be very close to land and not SE of Nantucket, but I have a hard time buying the sfc low over Worcester or CT or something like that.

      1. Even in the most inland route, by then, the sfc low would be occluded and so wrapped up in the colder upper level stuff, it might snow anyway.

  12. Thanks TK.

    Big RED sky this morning! Trouble ahead?? 😉

    Yesterday’s NWS map that had Boston at 8-12” was definitely an over-reaction, Today’s is much more reasonable (4-6”).

      1. Excellent! Thank you Doc! Awesome. Love these
        and really appreciate the fact that you take the time
        to put these together.

        Ch 4 is/was the MOST gun shy here, while the rest
        are fairly consistent. Loads of MET experience putting those numbers together. They look pretty reasonable to me. 🙂

  18. Already had three students and staff ask me if we are going to have school tomorrow! 🙂

  22. Trying to pinpoint a single number for Natick gives me approx 6 inches. This has been all over the map over the weekend and almost given me whiplash. Hope everyone stays safe.

  23. Morning! I’m not getting the big storm vibe for some reason. In the zone between heavy snow accumulations to the west and coastal high winds and flooding to the east, it’s gonna feel rather benign

  30. HIGH WIND WARNING!

    URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
    National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
    314 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 2023

    MAZ007-015-016-019-132100-
    /O.UPG.KBOX.HW.A.0001.230314T1200Z-230315T1200Z/
    /O.NEW.KBOX.HW.W.0002.230314T1200Z-230315T1200Z/
    Eastern Essex MA-Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-
    Eastern Plymouth MA-
    Including the cities of Gloucester, Boston, Quincy, and Plymouth
    314 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 2023

    …HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 8 AM EDT
    WEDNESDAY…

    * WHAT…Northeast winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 65 mph
    expected.

    * WHERE…Eastern Essex, Suffolk, Eastern Norfolk and Eastern
    Plymouth Counties.

    * WHEN…From 8 AM Tuesday to 8 AM EDT Wednesday.

    * IMPACTS…Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
    Risk for power outages. Travel will be difficult, especially
    for high profile vehicles.

    * ADDITIONAL DETAILS…Peak of the winds expected Tuesday
    afternoon through the night.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
    trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
    your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
    you must drive.

    &&

    $$

  31. Winter Storm Watch (3:15 AM)

    URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
    National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
    313 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 2023

    MAZ007-013>018-RIZ002>005-132015-
    /O.CON.KBOX.WS.A.0005.230314T0000Z-230315T1200Z/
    Eastern Essex MA-Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-
    Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-Northern Bristol MA-
    Western Plymouth MA-Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-
    Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-
    Including the cities of Gloucester, Foxborough, Norwood,
    Cambridge, Boston, Quincy, Taunton, Brockton, Providence,
    Coventry, West Greenwich, East Greenwich, Warwick, West Warwick,
    and Bristol
    313 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 2023

    …WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
    WEDNESDAY MORNING…

    * WHAT…Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8
    inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 60 mph.

    * WHERE…Portions of eastern Massachusetts and northern Rhode
    Island.

    * WHEN…From this evening through Wednesday morning.

    * IMPACTS…Travel could be very difficult during the Tuesday
    evening commute. Strong winds could cause tree damage.

    * ADDITIONAL DETAILS…Rain will change to snow Tuesday afternoon,
    but it is still uncertain as to how much snow will accumulate
    during the day, which will affect final storm totals.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

    &&

    $$

  32. To TK, thanks for the analysis and write-up. Not sure about direction / timing of the winds in my area. I think the winds are coming from the east to start with and then move to NNE and then maybe NE-N when they are strongest. At least, I think that is what is happening.

      1. I’m blending what these models show.

        So, not a loop 100-150 miles south east of us, but maybe one over outer Cape Cod.

        I’ll actually have to see the inland loop to believe it.

  34. Thank you, TK. Good morning .

    I have to travel to and from Boston tomorrow late afternoon- early evening and then again early Wednesday morning. Not loving the timing of this thing! But maybe daylight savings time will help me a bit tomorrow since there will be less time after sunset before I drive home..?

  35. While this storm will have major impacts across the region, I am still firmly in the camp of very little accumulating snow (maybe an inch or 2) at the coast.

    1. And this is what I posted last night to Tk . So the rain is to let’s use the key word possible changeover to snow late Tuesday afternoon & most Mets yesterday we’re saying this ( not until later . My concern has always been as I posted yesterday if that timing is delayed getting here well your snow accumulation is shrinking big time

      1. I think we understand your idea.

        Its a possible outcome.

        Its also possible the NAMs of 00z last night verify.

        Thats what we’re all trying to figure out right now. 🙂

  37. Its interesting, the 12z NAM’s 500 mb feature is stronger (deeper) than its 00z projection. (at hr 36) 519 dm vs 522 mb.

    YET, the 12z’s sfc low is weaker. 986 vs 977 mb. Stronger upper level energy with a weaker sfc low.

    But, if you look at 500/700 and 850 mb, on the 00z, the system is perfectly, vertically stacked. On the 12z, its not vertically stacked. The 700/850 mb lows are northwest of the 500 mb feature.

    I wonder what the model is seeing and others like it to project that the system will not vertically stack ?????

    1. We need to see the global models and then, I want to see 18z and more importantly 00z tonight.

      I’m not buying this slightly unphased solution.

  42. Hey, Dr S, your map was just posted on FB by a Sutton friend. He got it from another source. Your maps are becoming an amazing resource.

    1. Just what we needed today ….. lots of clarity.

      I’m more towards 3km NAM and HRW WRF (of the 12z stuff)

  45. So, I would throw out there, does anyone remember a looping noreaster, looping over land in southern New England.

    I don’t.

    Something’s up. Need to see more info.

  46. It will be interesting as to what Boston will be upgraded to eventually: WWA or WSW?

    I wonder if the NWS decision won’t be until tomorrow morning? Hmmm. It wouldn’t surprise me especially if the track is still indeterminate.

    1. In spite of what the snow projections are, that one actually does the loop offshore.

      It just keeps the heavy back end snows so consolidated around the low, it falls at sea.

  48. I am NOT comfortable. Just too MUCH can go wrong for decent
    snow near the coast with this one.

    IF we can keep that loop off shore a bit, then we’re golden,
    if not, we’re cooked. And WHY oh WHY are so models
    hooked on this solution?

  49. it seems like we are headed back down a bit – judging from comments since I don’t understand how to read the models. Curious to see when we might reach a comfort level with the storm’s outcome. When are the key data releases over the rest of the day?

  50. I’m throwing stuff against the wall here …….

    Is it possible the upper feature is so impressive, some of the models are somehow representing it with a low reflected at the sfc way too far north and west.

    I keep seeing that incredible energy, forecast to intensify and ultimately pass southeast of us. That track and intensity has to work for us for snow, even its just the 2nd half of the system.

  51. Thanks TK. I’ve been busy so haven’t been able to chime in much, but your discussions (both the blog posts themselves and comments) have been phenomenal.

    In terms of my overall read on this storm: this is such a powerful, dynamic system, and usually when you get something like that, it ends up even stronger than you expect, which in turn usually pulls it further west. One way or another, there will be accumulating snow at the coast in this event, but I’d keep expectations rather guarded on big totals.

    For elevated inland areas though, this will be an absolute crush job, including significant tree damage and power outages. My over/unders would be:

    Boston Logan: 3.3”
    Worcester: 15.5”
    Providence: 4.6”

    For the highest terrain of western MA, southern VT, and eastern NYC, there should be some 24”+ totals.

  52. Scientifically speaking, it is misleading at best to describe what is being termed “dynamic cooling” (not a great term IMHO) to “pulling down cold air from above”. While the air above is at a colder temperature, its potential temperature is greater (ie if you bring this air to the surface adiabatically, it will warm and be warmer than the surface temp).

    Several things contribute to cooling here, but the largest contribution is the loss of energy due to evaporation of snow and rain. With such a strong storm, you also have decent large-scale uplift, which brings the low surface potential temperature air upward (albeit you need to a bit careful, the specific humidity is relevant to consider here too, e.g thunderstorms and CAPE etc. in summer). Finally you have some cooling due to sensible heat loss, from the cold snow or rain, but I believe this is a much smaller component.

    While undoubtably there is air being entrained by falling precip (“air being pulled down”) — something which the models parameterize, probably not very well nor consistently across models, it is evaporation into this entrained air that makes it cool.

  53. Thank you TK, your discussion was very detailed and much appreciated. I have a strong suspicion that many of us in the WHW forecast area will have a chance to witness thundersnow with this system as it will be undergoing rapid intensification with lots of convective elements, are your thoughts in line with this?

  54. TK – The further west track, the less snow for Boston? Is that how it works in these situations?

  56. I’m heading out to get gas for my generator. If I have plenty of gas, my power won’t go out. Notice I didn’t say I was getting gas for the snow blower; if I did that, it wouldn’t snow!

  59. Question-I realize individual’s focus on their own geographic locations and the variability the models are kicking out for the coastal location. But for me out in central Central Worcester county (yes, central central ;-)), it seems as though each of these different models have been steadily increasing snow totals from yesterday. We were averaging around 12-16″ for the different models, and now it seems like the range is more 16-22″? Anybody else seeing that?

    1. I’ve seen it as irregular, but I’ve looked at everything, even models most people can’t see.

  60. I’m glad to see the 12z GFS make more sense !!

    Would be pretty cool to see that wound up a circulation rotate down the immediate coast like that.

    1. Thank you Tom.

      I think we have a lot of surprises coming with this storm. It’s very intense and will be doing a lot of now casting.

      Also thank you to everyone with the great comments.

  63. I still have a colleague forecasting 24-30″ for Boston.

    We’re only apart by about 16-20 inches. 😀

  65. Going to be some epic snow totals in the Eastern Catskills, Berks and Greens of southern VT. NWS Albany calling for 2 to 3 FEET in their Winter Storm Warning statement in these areas.

    1. Just had to run an errand in Gold Star Blvd. Worcester where its 44F. Back home now only 7 miles away and it’s 39F. 5 degrees, 7 miles. There’s also some mixed snowflakes in the rain showers at 39F. It’s cold upstairs.

      These elevation events even only miles away always fascinate.

  67. From Scott Nogueira, meteorologist on the AmericanWx forum (and I believe one of Captain’s former students?)…..

    “Outside of the higher elevations of ORH/Berks etc….I cannot recall such a challenging forecast. Most especially inside 495. This is absurd.”

    1. Wow. I’ve been thinking …based on comments here from those who are really really knowledgeable….that this seems harder than most any I’ve followed. Good for him

  70. Eric Fisher
    @ericfisher
    7m

    Best shot of snow accumulation in the city/near the coast is with a backlash band tomorrow eve/night as the storm starts rolling east

  71. My early call going by my gut only is for my area pembroke to have very little snow ( not plowable) Im sorry I just can’t overcome the surface temps even if I’m wrong . I just think this is primarily a rain & wind storm down this way . Remember this is my opinion only & it’s just a very , very strong hunch . I also am going to toss it out there Boston at Logan records under 2 inches of slop I’ll say 1.5 overnight on Tuesday. I’m sticking to my gut on this . And for the record I’m at home all week so I could care less what it does .

      1. You absolutely did Tk but I’m truly sorry I’m not buying in especially down my way . Wind & rain event with no plowing needed . Remember I’m truly going by a strong hunch .

  72. Cool satellite image of the developing storm….

    Mike Masco
    @MikeMasco
    35m

    COASTAL STORM IS BLOWING UP!
    With only limited interaction (so far) with an upper low out west .. the initial coastal low is tapping into some warm (undisturbed) waters off the NC Coast.

    The coastal winds will start to scream soon and just the start of a 3-day event across the east.

    https://twitter.com/MikeMasco/status/1635327529287393311?s=20

  73. I was just outside putting out the trash.
    Although the wind isn’t strong, there is a noticeable
    freshening breeze coming in from the East.

    Not only that, there is some light rain/sprinkles falling.

  74. Forgive me if this question is too simplistic but isn’t this storm somewhat following climatology patterns for mid March storms? Big snow expected in elevated inland areas and much lesser amounts closer to Boston where it becomes imperative that everything mesh perfectly for a home run. Things may click occasionally like the April Fools storm but that’s tough to do. Again I hope I am not stating the obvious.

    1. Somewhat, and then you have the added element of making its own cold air which is also somewhat a climate / time of year thing, but can happen any time.

  75. AND here comes the Euro. Out 12 hours And it is 6MB
    stronger that the 0Z run for the same time.

    993 vs 999

  76. We are at 140 comments now. The WHW Comment Forecasting system will have Boston at 6 inches or less if there aren’t 300 comments by 8pm, this is a flawless system and the most accurate one you can count on.

  77. Latest from NWS:

    .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/…
    No major changes to the ongoing forecast for this afternoon. Did
    tweak the timing of precipitation onset using the latest near
    term guidance. Still anticipating rainfall to start later this
    afternoon, with the exception of the higher terrain towards the
    Berkshires, where snow if possible right from the beginning.

  78. 12z Euro is dreadful for CT, RI and SE MA. Rain/mix to dry slot. Still got that double barreled low thing going.

    Better in eastern MA where there is some heavy snow backlash after the secondary ocean low takes over.

    1. Yes. And some of that was SLEET Near the coast.
      IF we could have that as 3-4 inch per hour snow, some
      nice totals could be realized.

      There may be a surprise yet.

      Right now it is

      Euro
      GFS
      NAM

      Against ALL of the rest. What’s it gonna be???????

      That’s a decent BIG THREE, but I’d like to see the HRRR and RDPS on board.

    2. GFS has over 3″ of it out here too. Blend NAM, GFS, Euro and I think avg. is 3″. Snow ratio of maybe 8:1? 7:1? Not sure it’s a 5:1 average for the whole event but maybe.

      1. I think it will head towards 8:1, 9:1 maybe even 10:1 mid storm out your way, as it gets colder above.

  81. 12z Euro 2AM Tuesday:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023031312&fh=18&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    8AM Tuesday:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023031312&fh=24&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    2PM Tuesday:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023031312&fh=30&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    8PM Tuesday:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023031312&fh=36&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    2AM Wednesday:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023031312&fh=42&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      1. “about” A 12 hour window where it snows and perhaps 6-8 hours of the heavier stuff. We need to make hay in that window.

  83. Watching this model circus right now is painful. Might as well just get out a dartboard. Cue up the radar and look out the window…it’s almost nowcasting time!

    2. Mark I sent your epic snowfall comment to my son. His wife gifted him a trip to north Adams and the porches this weekend as a birthday present. He has been hoping there would be significant snow out that way.

    1. Very painful indeed.

      You mentioned winds.

      I looked at the gfs and NAM project wind gusts and the
      12Z runs were down by about 25% or so. Don’t know what
      to make of that.

    2. Think of the atmosphere as a big tub of very barely set jello. 😉

      Then try to forecast the exact position of something the size of a pinpoint several minutes in advance.

  90. With all we’ve seen today, I continue to envision a several hour window, maybe longer where a wind whipped snow is falling, plastering everything.

    It’ll still look nice.

    But, I really wish the models converged on a center and track for the sfc low and cleared up the wind expectation, which I’m now very confused about.

  91. To Mr. Spock regarding your earlier comment (that I just saw & approved).

    Yes I know the process and that technically it isn’t as simple as what I said, but the description is really geared toward the lay person and not the scientist in this case.

    But your description is excellent and I encouraged all to read it … comment around 11:30AM.

  93. Per 18z HRRR, I should have a SW wind by evening tomorrow

    🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

      1. To be fair, this model wasn’t really built for big ole winter type cyclones. 🙂

      1. Thank you for saying that. If we get nothing, I promise I will multiply JPDs comments ten fold.

  98. I’ve reached a conclusion.

    I think putting it all together, todays stuff slows the change to snow a bit in eastern areas on the front half of the system, but I think there’s going to be one heck of a wrap around.

    Wind driven snow with gusty N to NW winds.

    I have no idea how much it will drop but, I think it will be a fun few to several hours.

    You can still see this wraparound in the NAM and gfs and evening is nutty HRRR run, it tries to reestablish one once the low works back out over cape cod.

    1. I give you a lot of credit for continuing to try to figure out what the F is going to happen. I have thrown up my arms and am ready to start watching radar!

    2. Give you a lot of credit Tom sticking with it fine our way , almost time to watch it unfold

  100. I love how the 12km & 3km NAM were very different on the 12z run but everybody just ignored the higher res version. 🙂

    18z: Match or no match? 🙂

    1. MARCH 13, 2023 AT 10:52 AM

      I’m more towards 3km NAM and HRW WRF (of the 12z stuff)

      🙂 🙂 🙂

  101. Do folks put much stock in NWS latest forecast cutting amounts In eastern Mass to 3-4 inches.?I am getting more confused by the hour. Also saw a prediction for high power outage potential thru a wide chunk of metro west. Does this make sense. Thought greatest chances were with highest snow totals and highest winds.

  108. NAM now has the right synoptics and is just a touch too far west. Correction slightly eastward coming with the next couple of runs.

    No changes to the forecast at this time.

  109. 3km NAM from 18z, nudged eastward by 20-25 miles, slightly under Kuchera but not as low as snow depth change (because of nighttime snowfall). That’s where I think we want to be right now.

  110. Two recon planes have been sent into the storm….hopefully better/more consistent short range model results at 0z tonight.

    1. I’ve had it!!!!

      Even the 18Z 3KM NAM is a piece of crap and dry slots Boston!

      I GIVE UP!!!!

      Wake me when this is over.

      My expectations have been FLUSHED down the freaken toilet!

      Logan: 1 inch
      JP: 2.674231214145676 inch

  112. This much inconsistency in the models is usually not a good sign. Whatever tricks the storm has in store for us, I don’t think they’ll be conducive to significant snow at or near the coast. The WS watch appears to be down for Boston. I think the advisory may be replaced at some point with a “wintry mix on the way.” Any time I hear the term “back lash snow” I’m not impressed or optimistic about the snow potential, especially in March. In January with an approaching cold air high back lash snows can be (sort of) impressive. But usually not in March, at least not with the way this system and is shaping up. In March 2005 we experienced significant back lash snows. It was a beautiful thing. Snow stuck to everything and it got very cold – into the teens – but that isn’t the case now. The ground is practically warm. I’m serious. Just stick your hand in the soil. You’ll see what I mean. Put your hand on the pavement. Though colder it’s not that cold. It could be puking snow up in the sky and it’ll take a long time for anything to accumulate at the surface, particularly when the air temperature won’t be dynamically cooled quite enough. I think it will be cooled sufficiently by the time the system winds down and departs. But then you’re left with a coating/frosting on Wednesday morning. We’ll see what happens. I hope I am dead wrong and that we wind up with 24-30 inches.

    1. Inconsistency is really due to the type of track. This is common for a stacking / looping storm. Basically happens every time, which is why I’m not even stressed about it. 🙂

    2. I absolutely Agree with you & I am 100% going with my instinct. Wankum thinks c- to 3” Boston / south & if I was a betting man I’d put my money on the C.

      1. You’re definitely going with his forecast over mine – that’s for certain and a bet I’d always make too. 🙂

        1. All gut Tk on this one . Your patience & others here watching this unfold has been remarkable.

    3. Heavy enough snow overcomes that very rapidly. We’ve been given that lesson here many times.

      1. Yes, this is very very true. But the problem is, you HAVE to have the heavy snow and I am NOT impressed by what
        is being modeled, that’s for sure!!!

  115. SNOW way down, WIND Down. What happened to this storm.???????

    URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
    National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
    336 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2023

    MAZ007-013>018-RIZ002>005-140845-
    /O.UPG.KBOX.WS.A.0005.230314T0000Z-230315T1200Z/
    /O.NEW.KBOX.WW.Y.0014.230314T1200Z-230315T1200Z/
    Eastern Essex MA-Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-
    Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-Northern Bristol MA-
    Western Plymouth MA-Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-
    Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-
    Including the cities of Gloucester, Foxborough, Norwood,
    Cambridge, Boston, Quincy, Taunton, Brockton, Providence,
    Coventry, West Greenwich, East Greenwich, Warwick, West Warwick,
    and Bristol
    336 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2023

    …WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 8 AM
    EDT WEDNESDAY…

    * WHAT…Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 6
    inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

    * WHERE…Portions of eastern, northeastern and southeastern
    Massachusetts and northern Rhode Island.

    * WHEN…From 8 AM Tuesday to 8 AM EDT Wednesday.

    * IMPACTS…Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
    conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Gusty
    winds could bring down tree branches.

    * ADDITIONAL DETAILS…Greatest snow accumulations away from the
    immediate coast.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    Slow down and use caution while traveling.

    &&

    $$

    1. The snow is not way down. I had 4-8 for the city (2-4 for Logan). Assuming their “1-6” (whatever that means) is right, that’s not way down. It’s down 1-2 inches.

      The wind gusts? I had max 45-55. They mention 50. How’s that way down?

      I’m puzzled. 🙂

      1. I’m not nor was I ever talking about your forecast.
        You have been consistent all along UNLIKE many others!

        I am talking about some TV Mets and the Damn NWS!!!

        btw, I am not expecting anything remotely close to 6 inches.
        That would be a BONANZA. 🙂

        See my JP prediction above.

        2. I really didn’t find the TV folks (and I saw them all last night – only a couple briefly today so far) were all the wavering. They’ve pretty much had the same ideas since early Sunday (even some as early as late Saturday) with no wild swings. Wind forecasts have generally followed NWS guidelines or just reached the same conclusions. Some adjustments based on where you think the low center might loop, but that’s a given.

          The only inconsistency I saw from NWS was their initial snow map vs. their second snow map, but I’m not surprised. The confidence was low initially and I think they had to consult with other offices (north & south) as well. Today, they opted to give weight to short range (and some medium range) guidance trends. The changes they made are actually not that drastic when you think about it.

          Supposing they are correct about the further west loop, that IS going to make a difference in the outcome, so the forecast should be adjusted to reflect that thinking. Is it correct? We’ll find out. This is just part of the process, and in this particular case, we’re dealing with an irregular low center transitioning to more symmetrical while in the process of being captured by an upper low and doing a cyclonic loop right in the front yard (ocean / coast) of the CWA, with very tight gradients for change on snow/precip/wind. I don’t think anybody could do any better than we’ve seen so far.

          1. Ok, fair enough. But you know I’ll never be happy in this type of situation.

            I just don”t like what I am seeing.
            I just wish it could have been a classic nor’easter. not in the cards, thst’s all there is to it.

            Oh well, i’ll go sleep with it raining and wake up with it raining and listening to the sounds of rain drops hitting the windows. Perhaps after that we get a little bit of snow. right or wrong that’s how I feel anyway.

  116. I think for now on, I will Play DEBBIE DOWNER
    with any approaching storm. I will come up with
    any and every scenario that will cause a BUST or at least
    NOT be as expected or wished even.

    1. I’ll continue to forecast them to the best of my ability, as I always have. 🙂

  117. Is it my imagination or did Ch 5 reduce their totals from Boston to Worcester to 3-6? I think I will see these maps in my sleep.

    1. Just look at their old one vs. their new one and see. 🙂

      Haven’t seen ch 5 today.

  118. Thank you TK for your well-written forecast. I also love all the comments people write. Some give me a good laugh regarding how crazy and frustrating the weather is. The Weather Channel likes naming storms. This one you might call mixed-up but interesting as how it will turn out. As this one is starting as rain it seems kind of unlikely we would get a lot of snow w/the exception of high elevations. I know cold air will be brought down. But, hey. What do I know. I am hoping for a lot of snow in MetroWest but who knows. At least one decent snowstorm, please, before the spring!

    1. I’ve never been a fan of TWC storm names but whatever. 🙂

      I just call this storm Sage & Onion until tomorrow when it’s the Pi Day Northeaster. 🙂

  120. TK – Off the top of my head, I believe the most snow Boston received in one system so far this season is 3.5 inches. If I am correct, will that hold?

    1. I don’t remember what it is, and I don’t know. I have Logan at 2-4 inches. So they can go above that, if that’s the #.

  121. There’s a crapload of moisture on our doorstep, and it’s all in the form of rain. What a waste.

    1. I’m actually really glad this is not going to all be in the form of snow here.

      20+ would make it really difficult to do some of the things I have to do every day right now. 🙂

  123. The latest from our friends at the NWS who are pulling their hair out:

    From the NWS 446pm Area Forecast Discussion:

    …There still remains some uncertainty on exact snow amounts across the lower elevations, including eastern MA and Boston…

    Still dealing with lots of critical differences in the latest guidance suite. While gaining confidence in some aspects of the forecast, still some lingering questions with the precise details.

    Among the guidance, we discounted the 12Z NAM, which looked to be a far western outlier with its track. This forecast was based more on the idea of the storm staying just offshore of eastern MA. All the guidance had a little pinwheel effect with the surface low pressure at some point tomorrow into tomorrow night. The critical question is where this happens. The main concern for this will be related to temperatures, which are rather marginal already. A more westward jog to this low pressure will mean warmer air and less snow towards the coast.

    Another complicating factor to the snowfall forecast will be the timing and track of a dry slot in the dendritic growth zone. This looks like it will impact southeast MA and portions of RI. This will limit snowfall simply because the snowflakes themselves will not be as large or well formed.

    1. CRAP, pure CRAP!!!!

      Watching radar and with my Radar Scope precipitation depiction mode, a large area from just South of Worcester to Southern NH ALL flipped to BLUE depicting SNOW.

      Retrac, you out there.> Can you confirm? OR is the display just full of shit?

      🙂

      1. Vicki, Radar Scope now depicting SNOW in your area.
        You might want to take a peek. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    2. YEAH!!!! I think you answered before I even posted.

      Thank you!!!!

      My Radar Scope is at least reasonably accurate!!!

  129. Interesting, has someone on this blog been hammering home DYNAMIC COOLING?

    Seems when this heavier Band got up into the Worcester area, WHOOSH, down came the SNOW!

    Interesting.

    It is 41 here and MUCH closer to that marine air, so that ain’t happening here anytime soon. 🙂

  132. This winter has produced some unusual things, which include a cold temp record – remember that 36 hour interlude in early February – in the middle of an incredibly long string of days in the 40s/50s (another VERY unusual thing; the persistence was incredible). Another thing that I have never seen in any winter in the Boston area during my lifetime is the fact that not once have any of the streets near me been plowed. Some of the pedestrian paths have been plowed. And, there’s been some salting going on. But no plowing. And, that’s not going to change with this system. At least that’s the way I see it. I think Boston will be lucky to get 2 inches of melting slop/glop, which will mostly accumulate on grassy surfaces and not asfalt. I highly doubt the snow plows will plow any of the streets in my neighborhood.

    1. There’s some heavy stuff off to the SW in CT. that will get up here maybe in an hour. Looking to see if that can cool things down even more.

  136. This lead area of precipitation is a little bit more widespread and then some cases a little bit heavier than anticipated so it is already starting to work on the atmosphere a little bit.

    I don’t think it will make a huge overall difference in the forecast but it may result in a few tweaks.

  137. Just for kicks and not other reason, this should be post
    #300 before 8PM.

    Doc, you out there? 🙂

  138. I think dynamic cooling is pretty cool….punn intended….I’m taking the over on snowfall in North Reading and surrounding areas

    1. I use weather undergrounds radar(formerly intellicast) much more accurate than radar scope for precip type. I know this because i have radr scope

    2. Bernie is excellent.
      I’ve always liked his insight and communication even when I didn’t agree with him.

    1. If you have compared the 2, I’m not going to argue with you, but I can say that I have seen that display be woefully inaccurate before. 🙂 As has RadarScope at times as well. 🙂

      1. Yes i have seen both be wrong just radar scope more so. I plow and constantly look at booth. There have been times this year it has been raining but radar scope has it snowing. Right now it is raining at my house but radar scope has it snowing

        1. I haven’t looked at the Intellcast/weather underground in a while. Yes, I have seen what you are saying with radar scope. Many times it has been snowing here and radarscope has rain or vice versa. I’ll have to compare more. Thanks
          🙂

  143. Speaking of Bernie he is doing a twitter live right now. I echo TK he is a good met and he explains complex situations in layman’s terms.

  145. I always enjoy watching Bernie. He went off twitter for a bit because of the hecklers getting kind of nasty but he is back

  146. It is raining here at the office in Manchester CT (200′ elevation) and 40 degrees. I am working late tonight trying to catch up as this is a short week for me….we are leaving Wednesday for our four day ski trip to Big Sky Montana.

    1. My son just texted me that it is 36F and raining in Coventry as well (700′ elevation) and we have 0.25″ rain so far. So those radar images showing mix/snow over us right now are not correct.

  151. Bernie is also known for some hilarious video bloopers, along with Jim Kosek. 🙂

  152. This looks to be the latest from all stations:

    https://ibb.co/BqwGb2s

    It appears that some people messed with the WHW Comment Count Forecasting system. They rocked the radar back and forth and posted superfluous comments in an effort to influence the results. We will have technicians take a look at securing the bearings on the base of the structure and reinforce it with spam detectors.

    1. Awww, darlin’, I post superfluously all of the time. My middle name is superfluous.

      Wait. If you listen carefully, you’ll hear the cheers of agreement from here

      That said…good luck getting your technicians to rein me in 😈

  153. My son is at UMass Lowell. He was in the dinning hall when a text went out canceling classes for tomorrow. Everyone found out at just about the same time and the place broke into cheering and clapping.

    I feel so old now. Gone are the days of listening to the alphabetical listing of school closures on the AM radio.

    2. I meant “dining” hall, but in this case “dinning” almost makes sense by mistake. 😀

      n., v. dinned, din•ning. n.
      1. a loud, confused noise; a continued tumultuous sound.

      1. Hahahaha. You do have the abi,it’s to make me laugh.

        and feel nostalgic. I remember so well listening to that alphabetical list. Awesome memories.

  155. Wet, sticky snow is starting to accumulate on grass, cars, and sidewalks here in Holden, MA at about 800’ elevation. The roads are well treated and only wet… for now! Excited to see how this all plays out!

    By the way—hi, everyone! I used to post on here a long time ago when I was in college and living in Worcester. I’ve mostly been lurking the last decade or so. Love all your discussion and observations, and appreciate all your weather insight over the years! Couldn’t help but jump back in for a comment during this fun storm.

  156. FWIW the HRRR has been trending east and colder with an earlier flip to snow north and west of Boston.

  157. Living in Southie, I seem to be in the cone of uncertainty for this one (or so it seems from some of the maps). Could anyone give me a hint as to what time I should head home from work ( Braintree )to limit major white knuckle driving?

      1. Normal rush hour time, 5p.
        This storm is confusing to me so wasn’t sure when it’s supposed to pick up. Sounds like right around rush hour?

  162. Vicki I am not seeing snow but 20 minutes up the road from me in Litchfield snow is falling an accumulating. Northwest Hills of CT look to take on the chin. Eversource planning on 130,000 power outages in CT.

  163. It has to rain hard to bring down that cold air from above. At least here in Sharon it’s light rain at best, still 39 degrees.

  164. The snow totals for central and northern Worcester County being spit out by the HRRR are just unreal. Even if you cut it in half, it’s a waxing.

  166. From Ryan Hanrahan

    Trends are pointing toward some pretty crazy snow totals to the north of us… especially in the hills north of Worcester

    From NWS Boston

    If you live in the northern Worcester Hills/Berkshires above 1000 feet this will be an extremely impactful/major winter storm. We expect 1 to 2 feet of heavy wet snow along with power outages overnight into Tuesday!

  168. Just got word from our superintendent that at this time they are not planning an early release, but acknowledges this is a difficult forecast. I think it’s the right call. Even if it’s snowing here by say 2pm, it will be a little while until real impacts are felt. By that time all schools will be done.

      1. Could be a huge difference in snow totals across that range of elevations….like the difference between 1 and 2 FEET!

    2. 840′ . Right in the center of town between Worcester and Rutland. And not far from Wachusett Mountain (15 mins).

      Sometimes I drive to Princeton Center. On a clear day you can see the entire Boston skyline.

  172. The wrap around on the 00z NAM from 2-8 is heavy !! If that verified, we’ll accumulate very well after say 5pm.

    1. It’s the difference between a dry slot and no dry slot.

      This correction was expected. Probably a little bit further out on the next run.

  178. Mark Litchfield County has been the jackpot area with the HRRR model. Snow so close as Torrington coming down at a good clip.

    1. Getting pretty jealous watching all these big numbers projected so close by. We’ll be lucky to pull off 5″. At least I have some elevation going for me.

  179. I am very concerned about what the wind could do along the immediate coast tomorrow evening up to midnight.

    Right as the sfc low passes just south of a given area. Potential big rush of northerly winds.

  180. Radar returns down 495 from Hudson to Milford are just nuts. Has to be big flakes not far off the surface.

    1. Now, I don’t think it’s going to snow THAT much.

      But I do think it will be a snowy evening.

      With the wind I think may come in after the low sinks below us, I just hope we don’t cake the trees with 3 or 4 inches of cement.

      1. I would not be surprised at all if you only need to knock those Kuchera numbers down by 20-30%. Kuchera is factoring in snow ratios which should also be increasing as it continues to snow.

        I could easily see you getting 5 or 6″ of heavy wet snow which could cause big problems with those winds!

        2. 5-6 for Marshfield ? If you think that what is pembroke getting . Man I’m going to look bad if that verifies, absolutely do not see that even being close .

          2. If the NAMs are correct…3-6″ of wind blown cement for your area. I wouldn’t let your guard down.

          1. lol . I was at smiths getting wood & turned around in the front lot , I actually was heading to Nesserella but saw there pile

  183. NAM is now in its optimal range and has done extremely well at this point on this winter.

    I’m expecting a slight correction still possibly to the east but not by very much and I think from there were pretty much locked in.

    Still going to leave my forecast the same at this point and then reassess it for the morning update.

    The snow portion of this in eastern areas is not going to be that long lasting but it could be one hell of a blast.

  184. 37F and raining hard in Coventry.

    If all this heavy stuff surging north on the radar falls as snow in Worcester County, there are going to be areas there with a foot of snow on the ground by daybreak!

    2. SSK/Tom – that looks like a 2-3″/hr snow band over your area with surface temps 31F-32F. And with 40-50mph winds to boot. Batten down the hatches!!

  186. I wish I lived where SClarke and Retrac live. Snowing and 32F instead of raining and 40F. I have to move. Even my daughter is thinking I should move north. Maybe I should go way north, like Caribou, Maine. Her words today over the phone were, “Dad, you can’t spend your life hoping for snow and cold. You may want to think about moving to where it’s guaranteed to be snowy and cold.” I think she’s right, though she wasn’t thinking Caribou. Her preferred town for me is Lebanon, NH.

    2. My folks in Poland Maine have had a snowy winter . They moved up there a couple of years ago

  187. I’m going to try and stay up until midnight to see where we’re at by then. At 2″ right now and I’ll let the radar tell you how hard it’s coming down.

  190. There may be one hell of an intense band ’round the back side of that low at its closest loop point to eastern MA.

    It would be like a super-deluxe snowsquall with up to 3 inch per hour snowfall rates.

  191. Retrac, I like the picture. You’re going to get a ton of snow.

    My temp went up to 41F.

    I hope that the models Mark showed verify. Maybe Boston can get into some action at some point.

  192. Timeline is a bit quicker potentially for the rain to snow into the Boston area I believe. A lot of media was leaning toward mid afternoon for Boston – I think it’s sooner.

  193. Christie… This is a reply to your 8:48PM comment.

    I remember you very well and wondered if you were still out there. I am very happy to see you comment and I would love it if you’d chime in more if you would like to. Always enjoyed your contributions during your college days. Thank you for your report! 🙂

  194. Pretty much all guidance keeps the low center over the water to the east. That is a better snow set-up for eastern MA.

  196. NWS is going to be really careful about putting the map back to closer to what they had earlier before they chopped it. But they have updated again and edged the higher totals eastward again, and increased Boston’s snowfall by just a touch (for now).

    Local TV folks hinted at coastal eastern MA potentially over-performing the current maps they had up. Not surprised. Pretty certain the loop was shown too far west by most guidance earlier in the day, correcting tonight.

  197. Pretty much every short range model and now the 0z GFS is giving the whole eastern two thirds of CT little to no snow. Completely dry slotted tomorrow as the westerly low of the double barrel low set up pinwheels around above us. By time the primary ocean low takes over, all the heavier backside stuff pivots around east of here and we are left with the scraps.

    What a joke! At least I will see plenty of snow in Montana Thursday!

    1. Hi Vicki! using windy.co to look at wind, rain, and waves right now. Winds are very easterly at the moment.

      1. if it’s still raining in Worcester, not much hope for here.

        when/if it decides it’s ready to flip to snow, it could collapse to the coast rapidly. BUT when oh when??? models say between 10 and 2. big spread among models. huge difference in snow accumulations

        1. Amazing. That’s probably only 10 miles from my house.

          I think a run at 2′ or more here is quite possible. It’s just coming down hard.

  208. I hope the euro location of the loop verifies, further offshore.

    All the other models seem to scrape the coast with a pinwheel of very strong winds this evening as the low loops southeastward.

  209. I think the rain/snow areas are about where they should be.

    The colder part aloft if close to arriving.

    Let’s see what Worcester and the Merrimack valley are like 9/10am. I think we’ll have changes by then.

  210. Figuring I’ll get the flip around 1 PM. Not so sure the storm will be exiting as quickly as models say.

  212. Wind at Boston has backed from 60 degrees to 50 degrees. Just a bit more and we could be in business.

    Was 41 here, just dropped to 40. Well, it’s a start,

    1. Nice ! Good to see (for snow fans) that wind backing ! Also cooling aloft, that holy cross cam changed quick. There was no snow just 30 minutes ago.

  214. Longshot. I saw your comment on windy.I’m working on going back to sleep (see how well I’m doing) and only had windy on my iPad in another room but just downloaded to my phone. It looks as if wind is very slightly out of NE now. Not sure if it has shifted since you posted. Still 39 here.

    2. Good grief. that’s a lot of snow with much more to come!!!

      beautiful place you have there. 🙂

  220. Had snow rain mix that changed to all rain around 11:00 last night and poured all night and picked up 1.25” of rain. I just switched to snow here 40 min ago and it’s coming down extremely heavily, just pounding snow, and picked up a quick 3/4” in that time.

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