Friday June 2 2023 Forecast (7:28AM)

151 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 2-6)

One more summery day today before it’s back to New England springtime! While yesterday’s summertime feel was with 100% sun (except the early clouds to the south), today’s will feature more a cloud/sun mix, with the clouds eventually growing to produce isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, and then as a strong back door cold front sweeps across the region this evening, a more general area of showers will occur. This will signal a significant temperature drop setting up a much cooler weekend. A northeasterly air flow will keep clouds around much of the time, but enough dry air works in for breaks of sun to develop midday and afternoon Saturday, and off and on on Sunday as well. While this is occurring, a low pressure area evolving offshore will stay far enough away to keep its rainfall mainly offshore – the exception being Cape Cod where some showers likely occur on Sunday. So other than some patchy drizzle near the eastern coastal areas with the northeast wind, expect a mainly dry weekend for much of the region despite the cloudiness and cool weather. Offshore low pressure may edge close enough for bands of showers in more of the region Monday before it feels the influence of a newly formed upper low a little further west, which will keep us unsettled with a shower chance on Tuesday as well, along with continued below normal temperatures.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms mid afternoon on. Highs ranging from 70-77 Islands / Cape Cod to 84-91 away from shorelines, warmest in valleys. Wind W up to 10 MPH, coastal sea breezes. Briefly gusty and stronger wind can occur near any showers and storms.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely evening to the north of I-90 and mostly overnight from I-90 belt south. Areas of drizzle and light fog overnight especially eastern coastal locations. Lows 48-55. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to NE and increasing to 10-20 MPH from northeast to southwest beginning late evening.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Passing showers north to south early morning. Chance of drizzle early morning eastern coastal locations. Highs 56-63, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Possible showers Cape Cod. Highs 57-64, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers possible mainly NH Seacoast and eastern MA. Lows 47-54. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Passing showers possible. Highs 58-65. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers in the evening. Lows 50-57. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 58-65. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 7-11)

Upper level low pressure dominates the pattern with a northerly air flow becoming more westerly with time. Opportunities for showers at times, but dry more often. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 12-16)

A broad upper level trough is expected to be in control with a few episodes of showers and possible thunderstorms. Temperatures below normal.

151 thoughts on “Friday June 2 2023 Forecast (7:28AM)”

  1. Thanks TK !

    I like these type of days in Spring to early summer a lot.

    Big temp changes with a backdoor front and the potential for some scattered thundershowers.

    Should be fun to watch it evolve.

    1. I was thinking the same as I read here and watched elsewhere the thoughts on transition. My oldest grand is afraid of thunder. He loved it until the June 1 tornado outbreak. I told him you don’t like it either, Tom, and it helps. He said he goes in his closet… he doesn’t ….so he laughed when I said you go under your bed… you don’t 🙂

        1. Still laughing. I will pass this to my grandson. I’m actually not convinced he doesn’t go into the closet.

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.
    I will do my best to tolerate my 4 day visit to Newfoundland.

    2. Joshua, these are wonderful photos and moving captions. Thank you.

      I kept on going and was captivated by the January in Amsterdam picture. There’s nothing quite like that light!

    4. Joshua, thank you for sharing. Several of the photos accompanied by your captions moved me to tears. Others had me smiling. Yiu certainly have a gift for words that evoke emotion. If it is all right, I’d like to show this to my older grandkids.

  8. Its 73F for the 25 seagulls and 8,000 periwinkles along the runway rocks at Logan.

    For the rest of humanity, its a lot warmer !!

  11. Temperature here is 78 with DP 64.6 (calculated with temp and wet bulb)

    Logan: 75 DP 61

    Ocean (Boston buoy, 16 NM East of Boston): 57.56

  12. Though of the day…..

    I alluded to this yesterday.

    Yesterday, the front was dropping SouthEastward to Southward
    and producing thunderstorms.

    As the afternoon wears on here, that front will be dropping
    more SOUTHWESTWARD. A Southwestward
    advancing front typically does NOT produce as much thunder and lightning. Not that it can’t, but it usually does not.

    Here’s wondering if the activity DIES as this front moves
    more SouthWesterly.

    Time will tell.

  14. Just finished my first DD iced coffee of the season along with a free donut! 🙂

    Back to DD “hot” tomorrow and beyond until pattern change back to more normal temps.

    Today is national DONUT day!!! 😀

  15. Looking at obs region wide, the coolest and gustiest NE winds are way, way up the Maine Coast, almost up near the New Brunswick border.

    Some of the models have projected a weak low, thermal low?, by late morning into the afternoon in central NH, then to sink southward.

    Looking at the wind barbs, one could argue some circulations trying to develop southwest of the main back door front.

    1. So, IF that is the case, wouldn’t that enhance thunderstorm
      activity? Hmmm
      Will be something to watch.

      1. No sorry. Sutton. Daughter teaches in Millis but doesn’t teach her daughter. But granddaughter goes to Millis on Monday and Thursday when her mom teaches. Millis is a lovely town. The whole area is one of my favorite parts of MA

  19. 82 here in JP with DP 64
    My equipment is showing dp 68 which is totally wrong.
    It is calculating based on Humidity and temperature. Clearly my humidity sensor is out of whack.

    Calculating using temperature and wet bulb is yielding a much
    more accurate dp.

    64 vs 68.

    Bedford and Norwood dp at 63

    So, I will take my 64 as being reasonably accurate. Previously both Norwood and Bedford were 64.

    2. Looks like I should have had a little dip South up near Quebec City. Oh well, you get the idea. 🙂

  21. Looking at the region wide obs, the NE wind push has progressed down the Maine Coast to about the Bar Harbor area.

  23. Its Friday (only 24-48 hrs) away from the evolution of this retrograding trof into a closed low and the models are STILL STRUGGLING to come to a consistent projection.

    I mean, the 12z GFS looking a bit wetter in eastern New England Saturday, so far into Sunday morning.

        1. One thing we are being reminded of in this pattern: just how bad this model remains.

          Very, very disappointing.

  25. Thanks TK!

    And thanks all for the nice comments on my photos yesterday 🙂

    A little severe weather trivia question for the group, since you all are finally moving into storm season… when I was chasing in TX/NM last week, the temperature was routinely in the upper 70s to low 80s, with dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s. Was basically that way every day. Certainly didn’t “feel” like traditional severe weather days – it felt like beautiful days. And yet, our instability (CAPE) was routinely 3000-4000 J/kg – significantly more than what you all have today despite you having much warmer and moister conditions.

    So, question is… how is that possible? 🙂

    1. Was there some sort of upper low aloft …. so cold over warm ….

      whereas, today, we are relatively warm over warm

      ??????????????

    3. Knew I could count on you guys 😉

      Mid-level lapse rates. You can basically generate CAPE by either warming and moistening the surface or cooling the air aloft. In SNE, you tend to think of the former because it’s rare for the latter scenario to be in play. But it’s commonplace on the Plains.

      Not exactly due to being under an upper low – you do steepen lapse rates that way, but then you usually lose your shear. SNE will deal with that a lot in the coming days. We had plenty of shear. Instead, it’s due to differential heating along the Rockies and adjacent terrain leading to the formation of an elevated mixed layer (EML), which quickly advects into the Plains. Our mid-level lapse rates were routinely 7.5-8.5 C/km. In SNE, that number is usually a meager 6-6.5 (like today), and that makes all the difference. Of course, the nearly non-existent shear is also a big factor there today.

      But this is why local mets tend to make a big deal out of the rare occasions that a remnant EML actually makes it to SNE. Makes it much easier to build huge instability, and if there’s enough shear and a trigger mechanism present, that’s how you get many of your big severe weather days.

  26. Just got home from driving granddaughter. There are some spectacularly beautiful towering clouds. I had no idea why till I just checked radar.

    Will that line hold together???

  27. I heard this morning that TD #2 off the coast of Florida is not expected to develop into a named storm. Just drift due southward.

  29. Will see what happens. SPC did place parts of northern CT and interior MA in a marginal risk. An isolated strong thunderstorm is possible.

  33. A couple special weather statements for some of these storms. Small hail some gusty winds with these storms.

  36. I’m out on Spencer ma at the moment Vicki and there is a ton of cloud to ground lightning that just came through. Along with torrential rain, no hail though.

  37. To: JPDave

    Would like to hear a recap about NF! I have been to the Maritimes but not there.

    1. Either you are continuing the joke or you didn’t get it. 🙂

      I said I would try to tolerate my 4 day trip to Newfoundland, meaning the shitcrap cold weather coming up the next 4 days with perhaps some drizzle and rain thrown in for good measure. 🙂

      I am not really traveling to NF. 🙂

    1. We’ve now dropped to 85. Curtains on East facing windows are
      blowing out 3-4 feet! I think the front has slipped down the coast. I don’t think this is just a normal sea breeze. I don’t think anyway.

  39. Some the hurricane hunters managed to find tropical storm force winds, and a center that was more-or-less closed off, so NHC named it Tropical Storm Arlene. All of the convection (and most of the strong winds) are in the northeastern quadrant of the storm. The system that moved into the Carolinas last weekend looked healthier than this, and it didn’t get named.

  42. 91 down from 93 with 61 dp. And my weather station lightning detector has strikes within one mile. Not sure if that is accurate

  44. Vicki, I was just listening to our hand-held amateur radio and listening to 162.550 a weather station in Paxton. There is a severe thunderstorm that may be heading your way – I believe you live in Sutton.

  45. A few minutes ago the sun was out and a few minutes ago it clouded up and it is dark to the northwest w/thunder here in Sudbury. These storms seem to be firing up all at once.

    1. Thunderstorms moved through that area. Some of those are lightning-caused fires. Though, it is fire season there now.

    1. Just wanted to let you know. Sometimes the radio we have I refer to is Worcester weather, which it really is. It’s just cloudy now w/not as much thunder at this point. Sky is hard to describe. Dark gray to light gray but no threatening clouds to speak of. Yet. Connecticut seems to be getting the brunt of it now or awhile ago anyway. They say this could go on until midnight? Also, I heard that Boston had an east wind. I wonder if that could keep storms away there.

      1. Love that you thought of me. Your radio fascinates me.

        My SIL was about to fire up the grill. That ended quickly.

  48. Airport went back up to 77.

    Portland, Maine is now down to 68 with East wind at 16 mph.

  52. 81 here

    big cell by Lowell

    If it hold together, looks to pass to our West, but will keep an eye on it,

    1. These don’t really hold together well – just multi-cell redevelop .. and those can’t get far enough east to get Boston, which lies in stable air right now.

    2. I just saw the one over Lowell on radar. Cell seems to be just sitting. There is a flash flood warning there now

      1. It’s actually a series of cells (multicell storm) that develop, grow, mature, and die quickly in succession so the storm appears to sit still. These are fascinating.

  55. Finally got a heavy downpour here at the office in Manchester CT. We had been splitting the uprights for awhile with heavy rain both east and west of here.

    Back home in Coventry, the cell that moved through produced torrential rain and pea size hail at Coventry Lake. My son sent me this video from one of his friends (it was doing nothing at our house a few miles away at the time):

    https://vimeo.com/832762668

  56. The sun has just disappeared here btwn dark cirrus blowoff from the thunderstorms.

    We are still pretty warm though, 84F at the airport with a light SE wind.

  57. These next few days are payback for me giving my Minnesota friends a hard time about winter since I moved out here last July. My son is doing a Golf internship there and the weather has been hot and humid for a couple of weeks with no change in short term. . After being away from the coast for 17 years I am being quickly reminded of the unpleasantries of the late spring not experienced in the Midwest

  58. SC, I’m hearing the Congregational church in Spencer suffered a horrific fire this afternoon and will likely lose their 1743 church.

  60. 78 here and feels like it is cooling nicely.

    Little cell just to our North

    Bunch of lightning strikes in Woburn.

    Getting close. We shall see.

  62. 46 in Fredricton new Brunswick.

    61 in Portland, ME

    72 Portsmouth, NH

    Cool air is on the march

  63. Either the small thing that randomly popped up over Belmont or the more impressive-looking one in Burlington/Woburn, probably.

      1. Between Belmont and Lexington. But now we’re out in Wayland, where it’s pretty calm.

  64. Nearest Lightning to me is West medford and Lexington.

    My lightning display is lighting up like a Christmas tree.
    More and More strikes are occurring.

    1. Right to the street level if need be. I love my lightning display.
      It is called Lightning Pro.

  65. I can hear loud thunder here now. Closest strike I see
    is in Ar;ington Almost between part of Somerville and Belmont.
    Now I see 2 strikes in Belmont.

  67. Wow, these storms are really developing north of Boston.

    I wasn’t quite expecting this.

    1. We are quiet now. 0.56 rain and some loud booms (not noise shaking) and a lot of lightning.

        1. I thought of you. Oldest grand spent time down here enjoying with me and didn’t mention the closet. It was enough to enjoy but not enough to hide from

  68. We’re 80 minutes into a storm cluster that just keeps re-developing here.

  69. Still 67 degrees with 74 percent humidity in Padanaram Village – air like that storms coming down from Boston could hold. Dark clouds on norther horizon. Feels like last hour of summer temps for the next week

  70. It’s going to be amazing going from mid-summer heat (cranking A/C unit) to “sprinter” chill (shutting windows and firing up the burner).

    It is June after all, it’s to be expected. 🙄

  71. https://imgur.com/a/rFx9ljl

    Vicki I was very close to the church, just a bit down the street when it was hit by lightning, it was an extremely loud shotgun sounding bolt that light up and the room, one of a few this afternoon. I took these pictures probably about 10 minutes after it was struck. The first crews had just arrived.

    2. SC my heart aches for a church with so much history to be lost. Your photos bring chills.

      It was definitely lightning then?

      It is a sister church to the one I attend. Congregational churches are open to everyone and anyone…and they mean that. This is difficult for me to understand.

  73. Routine garden variety thunderstorm here. Temp down to 66.
    Have a fw windows open as it is still raining, even though
    lightning has stopped.

  74. 68 degrees and 72 percent humidity in South Dartmouth – eerily still out – one of most pleasant nights we have had this spring. A nice moon out too. Front really seems to be slowing down over Boston.

    1. Nice, JB. I saw a glimpse of the moon through clouds a bit ago. 65 SE Sutton with 64 dp. A tad muggy for me. But sure am glad you are enjoying. Are you near Dartmouth college. Son attended for a year so we are a bit familiar with the area

      1. A few miles from UMASS Dartmouth Vicki. Close to Padanaram Harbor. We have a NE wind now so dew point dropping – wonder if storms make it here tonight

  75. Wind just switched to NNE now – and picking up so front must have come through here – many broken clouds

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