Monday December 4 2023 Forecast (7:41AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 4-8)

Some temperature and weather variety this week, as one would expect for this time of year, but nothing overly extreme is in our pipeline through Friday. After a rainy Sunday across much of the region (some snow/mix for a while in southern NH), we see that low pressure system exiting early today. Behind this, drier air arrives today, but clouds will be slow to break. Some partial sun arrives but also we keep the chance of a few rain showers around until mid day as a final disturbance crosses the region. Chilly air starts to move in tonight and will be with us Tuesday through the middle of the week. While a weak high pressure area keeps us dry during the day Tuesday, a low pressure area will be taking shape well offshore to our southeast, but an extension of this low pressure in the form of a trough will reach back toward New England, and another disturbance moving in from the west will help enhance that, while surface winds turn northeast Tuesday night into Wednesday. This is a recipe for some precipitation, and with cold air in place, we have a shot at a bout of snow showers Tuesday night and early Wednesday – enough for some minor accumulation, favoring eastern portions of the region. Marginal coastal temperatures mean that the precipitation can fall as a mix or even rain showers there, especially over Cape Cod, but eventually enough cold should be in place to overcome that. This is not going to be a major or long lasting event though, and it’s out of here during the day Wednesday, with dry weather returning, along with cold temperatures through Thursday. As high pressure builds across the region Thursday then off to the east Friday, we’ll see milder air arrive to end this work week.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy through midday with a passing rain shower possible. Cloud/sun mix thereafter. Highs 45-52. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow showers develop, except some mix/rain showers immediate coast / Cape Cod. Snow accumulation less than 1 inch. Lows 26-33. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers early, then partial sunshine. Highs 33-40. Wind NE to N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 21-28. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind NW to variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 9-13)

A warm-up for next weekend with a fair weather beginning, may end windy and wet as a cold front approaches – still have to refine the timing. Return to colder weather with wind included during December 11. Temperatures return to normal, fair then unsettled weather chance by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 14-18)

One or two low pressure systems bring temperature swings and mostly minor precipitation threats with no major storms indicated at mid month.

47 thoughts on “Monday December 4 2023 Forecast (7:41AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Ocean temp 48.2 this morning.

    re: Patriots
    Zappe may not be the best Quarter Back in the league, BUT
    I didn’t see any of the receivers getting open very often
    and the O-line was ATROCIOUS providing almost ZERO protection for him. That is a formula for disaster.

    1. Same problem jones had. Although I didn’t watch and won’t until the HC changes, I’ve seen zappe enough. He throws to coverage. We are used to a QB who can overcome less than top receivers which is what pats have had with rare exception. Brady could be looking one way, coverage would shift to that direction, and then he’d throw where coverage wasn’t. Zappe cant. Hope that makes sense.

  4. Based on the 12z NAM, I’d say our “little” snow event for
    tomorrow night into Wed AM is looking LESS and LESS!
    More like a WHIMPER!

    What else is new? Perhaps it will change. HA HA. Right. Sure it will. 🙂

  5. Thanks TK !

    Those thicknesses Wednesday look really low (cold).

    Even with the ocean being in the upper 40s, I think any ocean effect/enhanced would fall as snow right to the beaches.

  8. Thanks, TK!

    Rob Carolan suggested of a wild weather Sunday with a strong fropa this morning on WSAR.

  9. North Conway is such a lovely ski village. It looks like a wi tee wonderland this morning. Thanks, Tom, for reminding me about the cam. Keith shared it with me a year or so ago and I tend to forget. Looks as if it sits in top of what was Carroll Reeds

    https://imgur.com/a/knEM0FY

  10. Agreed, would like to see him with Douglas in the line up, zappe did things yesterday that I just have not seen Jones do. One thing for sure is that this offense needs to be fixed some how, the defense is a playoff even championship caliber defense.
    My hope is next year the offense looks like this
    QB room
    1. Free agent Qb, qb drafted 1st/2nd
    2. Recievers. KB, Douglas, free agent, drafted 1st/late first/second
    3. Rb Stephenson and Elliot add a third down passing back.
    4. Resign TEs
    5 fix the darn oline, get rid of oline coach, that’s the coach to be fired
    6 keep the coaching staff, ie Mayo and the 2 Bills. 3 years of inconsistent people has lead to issues, this needs to get stabilized. I know there are people on here that think it’s best to get rid of Bill, but I don’t. Those that bring up Bills record without Brady, look at all great coaches when their star qb is no longer with them 😉

  13. Thanks TK.

    Tom, I was at the game yesterday too. Would have tried to meet up at halftime if I had known you were there! Game was absolutely brutal all around. The play and the weather.

  15. Tremendous start to the ski season this year in VT, NH and ME.

    As Dave reported above, Killington received 7″ and is up to 40 trails open, Sugarbush with similar totals and now reporting 63 trails open.

    And Jay Peak reporting up to 11″ in the last 48 hours, 39 ” of new snow on the week, and a season total of 82″ already. Pretty incredible for Dec 4!

    I am not liking the looks of the system for next Sunday. GFS and Euro showing a powerful cutter with rains, wind and mild temps to Canada. Hopefully not shades of Xmas Eve 2020 where the ski areas had a similar great start and it was all incinerated in 24 hours.

    1. Nice to see you. I was thinking of you last night and didn’t think I’d seen you here for a bit. Or maybe I’d just missed seeing your posts.

      I sure hope that doesn’t happen Sunday.

      1. I am reading every day just havent had much time to post. Been very busy w/ work and all the other typical holiday season stuff!

      1. And look at the temps and dewpoints for early Mon AM….

        Temps:

        https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=sfct-imp&rh=2023120412&fh=162&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

        Dewpoints:

        https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023120412&fh=162&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=sfctd-imp&m=gdps

        Snow incinerator. Big step backwards for the ski areas is this materializes. Still time at 6-7 days out to hope for a track further east and less amplified but that’s what I said in Dec 2020 too….

        1. Oh no! That is BRUTAL!!!!!

          I hope they can recover!!

          You know it won’t track farther East. You know it and I know it. MIAMI EXPRESS!!

          1. It’s not going east of us for sure, but any bit further east than currently modeled would help minimize the time (and damage) in the warm sector.

    1. Pretty typical with El Nino…slow December start and then ramps up in Jan and Feb. If you are looking for snow, I would not get too concerned if we dont see much in SNE before the holidays.

      1. Unless blocking is too strong, which is a very valid possibility this time, for reasons stated in my winter outlook. 🙂

        1. Yeah, understood. By ramping up with the winter weather, I meant more of an Eastern US thing in general. Hoping not for a repeat of 2009-2010 where it ramped up big time but the Mid Atlantic got the brunt of it due to said blocking.

  19. There are still some info sources out there talking about favorable MJO for winter storms “soon”. No. That is incorrect. We’re going through phases 4 through 6, then into 7 during the next 10 days. That takes us to mid December. After that, there are indications that MJO makes a drift into phase 8 ….. or into the “circle” which basically renders it a non-factor.

    As was warned on X aka Twitter yesterday, beware of wishcasters out there. The pattern for SNE is not favorable for big snowstorms anytime soon. This should not really be that much of a surprise since reliable sources have been saying it. 😉

    1. There’s definitely some very cold air a few to several thousand feet above the ocean for Wednesday. If an inverted trof can set up, it could look wintry for a time Wednesday somewhere on the south shore. Ocean enhanced/ocean effect for some small zone is possible.

  21. While a change in the weather pattern is affecting Ireland and the UK – namely, less cold and more rain – the Northern European continent is still very much under the influence of consistent cold and snow. There hasn’t been a lot of snow in the Netherlands, for example, but in the Northern provinces it has snowed pretty much every day for a week. And because it’s VERY dark there, with daylight hours limited to 9am to 3pm, even with temperatures hovering around 1 degree Celsius (34F) during the day there isn’t much melting. The surface is at or below freezing all the time and so it’s basically an extended period of difficult travel conditions on the roads. I remember this from my time in the Netherlands. Even small amounts of snow – say, 1 to 3cm daily – created hazards and often for days on end. Here’s a picture from peak daylight today. There isn’t much snow (and it wasn’t snowing at that moment), but there are icy patches on the roads at any given point during the day. You can’t imagine just how dark it is until you experience it first-hand. The dark days of December are much darker than here. https://cdn.nos.nl/image/2023/12/05/1032392/1280x720a.jpg

    1. And people around here complain endlessly about it being darker in Nov-Dec like they have it worse than anyone else. And I don’t mean people with seasonal depression. I mean people, in general. The amount of energy wasted on complaining about that instead of doing things to make it better for themselves astounds me. That’s why I have no sympathy for the complainers except for those who legitimately suffer. There’s a difference.

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