Sunday December 3 2023 Forecast (8:26AM)

49 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 3-7)

Low pressure brings rainy weather to our region today into tonight before it tapers off. The low will be passing by just south of our region and there is just enough cold air in place so that some mixed or briefly frozen precipitation can occur early and late in the event in the higher elevations from north central MA to especially southwestern NH. Mostly dry weather and chill-off takes places from early to mid week, and with an upper level trough in place and a couple disturbances moving through it, we need to watch for a couple episodes of rain and snow showers. More important storminess will evolve well to the south and southeast and stay at sea. Once we get to Thursday, a narrowing ridge of high pressure will be over the region and a warm front approaching from the west will spread some clouds back our way.

TODAY: Overcast. Areas of fog. Periods of rain, may be mixed with snow and/or sleet for a while in higher elevations of southwestern NH and north central MA. Highs 42-49. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely in the evening, tapering off overnight, and may end as some sleet and/or snow in higher elevations of southwestern NH and north central MA. Lows 32-39. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Early-day rain showers possible eastern coastal areas. Highs 40-47 by midday, cooling into the 30s during the afternoon. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. A passing light shower of rain and/or snow possible. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Possible snow showers, favoring eastern areas. Lows 23-30. Wind NW-N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. A passing light shower of rain and/or snow possible. Highs 36-43. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 21-28. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunshine then clouds return later. Highs 37-44. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 8-12)

A little uncertain on timing but next significant trough is probably going to feature low pressure tracking west and north of our region with milder air ahead of it and rain favored over any frozen precip around mid period (December 10-11 window). Turns a little colder later in the period behind that system.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 13-17)

No major storms and no major temperature swings currently indicated for mid month.

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49 thoughts on “Sunday December 3 2023 Forecast (8:26AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Ocean temp at an even 50 degrees.

    Nothing looks good around here for truly Winter weather. what is coming up this week is typical late autumn weather oh, it still is autumn, isn’t it.
    When will the switch be thrown this year, if at all?

    Used to happen somewhere between 12/5 and 1/1. I know this is a general statement, but for many Winters it seemed to happen that way.

  4. Thanks TK
    From Meteorologist Steve DiMartino. PAY ATTENTION TO THIS TWEET WISHCASTERS ON X

    My advice for everyone looking for winter storms, wait until we get into MJO phases 8/1, then study the guidance. There is no point getting worked up until the Pacific is favorable for it

    2. I’ve been saying this all week. 🙂

      The only issue as far as snow lovers are concerned may be when it gets into 8 & 1 it may drop toward the circle (aka be weak) which may render it less of a factor.

    3. In am REALLY HAPPY to see METEOROLOGISTS speaking out about this. It is a problem, not to be ignored. I’ve been saying this for a while and I’m spot on, and so are these other mets. We have a right to defend the profession and you better believe we’ll exercise it!!! 🙂

      Educate the public. Weed out the fakes!

      1. Pete, JR and Eric have for a while. Sadly, there are those who just want something to find fault with and no one will reach them. That’s when I like the block option

  5. TK. In your crystal ball do you see any breaks this afternoon. We had planned to decorate Mac’s tree on sutton common. We have a plan b, but would be awesome to do today

  6. 3 consecutive runs, the NAM has shown a touch of snow
    for Eastern MA.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2023120306&fh=72&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Kuchera snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023120306&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    I didn’t say it was much. 🙂

    10:1 snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023120306&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Ratio

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ratioku&rh=2023120306&fh=72&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Lots of water in that snow, thus the lower Kuchera amounts.

    Assuming this EVER even happens. 🙂

    2. It’s keying on an upper disturbance “energizing” a quasi-inverted trough. 12km version is probably overdoing the coverage. But I see the hint on other guidance too. It’s been hinted at by medium range guidance for a few days, hence my mention of a rain/snow shower chance Tue/Wed to be refined as we get closer.

  10. 12Z GFS is now showing “some” snow for Eastern areas
    on the 6th

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023120312&fh=78&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Total Kuchera Snow, including today

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023120312&fh=90&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Canadian, Well NOT so much

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023120312&fh=78&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023120312&fh=96&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    1. I would not mind some festive flakes from snow showers on the 6th. But I would rather not see anything that hinders many folks from getting to our Angle of Hope for that evening’s candlelight vigil.

  12. As I’ve been saying for quite some time now, Europe is experiencing real winter and it’s VERY widespread and looks to continue for quite a while with the favorable atmospheric set-up.

    Here’s a report from England’s beautiful lake district (Cumbria). Quite a heavy snowfall for this area, in fact the biggest ones in December for more than 60 years. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X-UqnuQNt9k

    Even if it never snows here (I’ve reduced my Boston forecast of snow to zero … just kidding) I try and experience vicariously the snows other people are getting.

    1. Somebody I admin an international page with who lives in Scotland was asking me about the -AO and I told her that NW Europe was under the gun for real winter, then NE Asia, then western North America. So far it’s progressing as expected.

      1. Yes, indeed.

        Couple of centimeters fell in the Netherlands today, too. I know that doesn’t sound like a lot. And it isn’t. But they generally don’t get big snowstorms. The fact that they’re getting repeated bouts of little snow events speaks to the persistence of winter in that part of the world.

        By the way, quite the potent low traversing just to the south of Southern England today: Very widespread (cold) rain. To the north, in places like Scotland, they’re experiencing a couple of tranquil, sunny wintry days.

  13. Great, fun game in Foxboro. Wish I was there …

    On the college national championship, I would be pissed if I was FSU. You go undefeated and yet you’re not in the championship.

    Expansion of number of teams entering the championship tournament makes sense, but won’t happen this year.

  14. I been feeling all season that if the Patriots offense was just average, this team would be a playoff team because of the defense.

    1. Did Zappe take them to a win?? I knew they were playing ateam that doesn’t have a great record either .

    1. Great image. Thanks for sharing.

      Happy for the ski resorts. Looks like a `real’ winter on tap there. Was in the Alps in late December 1980/January 1981 and then again in late December 1981/January 1982. Both times experienced a ton of snow.

  21. Venezuela may invade oil-rich Guyana. I did not have that on my Bingo card. Today, Venezuela held a referendum in which people were asked about the claim to about two-thirds of Guyana. Keep in mind, Venezuela is a dictatorship, run by a Marxist-Leninist thug named Maduro. Gone is the ever so brief period of time, basically late 1989 through the spring of 1990, that we thought that nationalism and communism had come to end, wars to conquer lands were going to be a relic of history and that a “new liberal democratic order” was to reign supreme. We are so far removed from that it’s unbelievable. The world is less free than at any time since early 1990.

    1. In addition to some Haitian immigrants who have arrived at our school recently, we have a few Venezuelan teenagers who have also joined us.

      1. My friend from Columbia said many there are is not happy with Venezuela and been worried about Venezuela doing something stupid like that.

  22. Guess where I was today ……..

    I have a friend with season tickets and months ago, I has a choice of Commanders last month and Chargers today.

    The Pats offense is beyond help. To see it in person is ….. well …….. it’s almost funny.

    Anyway, I’m still trying to warm up. Maybe by Wednesday.

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