Saturday January 13 2024 Forecast (8:21AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 13-17)

This 3-day weekend (MLK Jr. Day on Monday) will feature changing weather daily. We start with the second major storm this week in our dynamic, active pattern. Low pressure cranks through the Great Lakes today on its way to eastern Canada / Hudson’s Bay. The ongoing impact is the heaviest rainfall as the day dawns, along with the strongest wind gusts expected with that system, mainly from the southeast up to around 30 MPH inland and 50+ MPH in coastal areas. This is lightly weaker than the last system but still capable of producing damage, especially to older trees weakened by previous batterings and sitting in ground that hasn’t had a chance to freeze. And while the general rainfall amounts will be less in this event, more on the order of 1 to 2 inches with spot heavier amounts, any moderate to heavy rainfall just exacerbates flooding we haven’t quite recovered from yet on rivers and streams, not to mention the shorter term poor drainage flooding and ponding of water on road ways. One plus is that this system occurring on a weekend morning means there is less auto travel and related impact. The worst of the rain and wind will be ending from west to east during the course of the early to mid morning hours. A secondary low pressure system on the triple point of the system (where warm and cold fronts meet to form an occlusion) will move right across our region this midday and early afternoon. There are two things to note with this. Areas that get into the warm sector make a run at 60 for a high temp, at least well into the 50s. This will be RI and eastern MA. The other thing is you’ll notice much lighter wind during the passage / development of the new low over the region as the pressure over the region will be rather similar, with little gradient to create wind flow. This low won’t really get its act together until it starts to move across Maine later today and into eastern Canada after. Later today we will notice the wind pick up from the southwest behind this system, and as a low pressure trough trailing it swings through, additional rain showers, even brief downpours, can occur up until early evening before exiting into the water to our east. The other major aspect of today’s storm is tidal flooding. The bad news is we have astronomically higher tides than the last event. The good news is we should not see a storm surge like the last event and the high tide will occur after the strongest winds have subsided. But the ocean / surf will still be quite rough and splash over and flooding is still likely there, while vulnerable areas along marshland (Hampton Beach NH, for example) will see another round of higher water.

During tonight, we’ll have breezy conditions with a gusty west wind, and this should help dry off many surfaces before the temperature can fall to around or slightly below freezing, especially away from the coastline. But areas that do still have water on the ground can ice over, so use caution if driving or walking. Ground that looks wet can indeed be a sheet of ice. Temperatures will rise sufficiently Sunday morning-midday to take care of this issue, but colder air is inbound for Sunday night and a more rapid freeze up of any leftover water on the ground will take place.

Speaking of Sunday and the arrival of cold. It won’t happen right away. First, while cooler than today most certainly, it will still manage to get to 40 in many areas, but a disturbance moving southwest to northeast across New England during the afternoon will drag a trough and cold front through, and this will ignite showers of rain, graupel, and snow, with precipitation type depending on location and timing of passing showers. Snow shower / snow squall chances are higher to the west, with more of a variety / mix in the I-95 belt, and rain showers toward the coast. Any of these can quickly, but very briefly, reduce visibility, and where snow squalls occur, a quick accumulation can make roads and walkways very slippery. A few follow up snow showers are possible into evening as the colder air arrives in earnest. This will lead us to a bright but dry and cold holiday on Monday, with a gusty breeze and below normal temperatures, and needing to talk about wind chill readings for the first time in quite a while. And while this is by no means to be a harsh arctic outbreak of any kind, it will feel pretty cold in comparison to the mild weather that’s dominated early winter so far. This brings us to our next weather event to keep track of. And that is a snow chance that comes on Tuesday. This system will be a fairly flat wave of low pressure passing to our southeast. In order to draw the precipitation area far enough north to impact our region, we will need to see another trough to the north partially capture the system. I believe this will occur, but not in such a way that delivers a widespread major snowfall. We’re instead looking at a short-duration, minor to potentially moderate one, with the higher chance of moderate amounts being the further east and south you are. This system exits quickly and we return to dry but cold weather for Wednesday. Yes, the warmer pattern is finally departing the Northeast. In fact, the entire US Mainland east of the Rockies will see below normal temperatures next week.

TODAY: Cloudy through mid morning with rain tapering to rain showers southwest to northeast. Areas of fog especially over the coastal plain midday into afternoon. Mostly cloudy remainder of day with passing rain showers possible. Highs 45-52 northwestern higher elevations, 53-60 elsewhere. Wind SE shifting to SW 15-35 MPH with higher gusts into mid morning, variable 5-15 MPH late morning-midday, SW 15-25 MPH mid afternoon on.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind W 15-25 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Passing showers of rain (nearest coast), mix/graupel (I-95 belt), and snow (interior areas) during the afternoon. Highs 36-43. Wind SW 15-25 MPH shifting to W by late in the day.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with a brief snow shower/squall possible early, then clearing. Lows 16-23. Wind W 5-15 MPH. Wind chill falling below 10.

MONDAY (MLK JR DAY): Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible. Wind chill below 20 at times.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Clouds arrive overnight. Lows 16-23. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Clouds thicken. Snow develops during the afternoon south to north. Highs 25-32. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy in the evening with snow likely. Breaking clouds overnight. Lows 15-22. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 18-22)

Colder / active pattern continues. Watching for a winter storm threat later January 19 into the start of the January 20-21 weekend. Another disturbance may bring snow showers late in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 23-27)

Cold eases with more seasonable temperatures heading into late month, but the pattern remains active with at least one storm threat during this period, leaning mid to late period.

161 thoughts on “Saturday January 13 2024 Forecast (8:21AM)”

  3. Thanks TK
    NWS Boston on snow squall potential tomorrow

    there remains the potential for snow squall during
    the early afternoon. The latest 00z high-res guidance signals at
    streamers coming off the Great Lakes and racing across southern
    New England around noon to 4PM, coinciding with the shortwave
    passage and steep lapse rates. The snow squall parameter is also
    supportive of this potential along with some of the CAMs. This
    will bring the risk for localized/brief hazardous travel with
    the potential for roads quickly becoming snow covered and with
    briefly near zero visibility and hazardous travel. Greatest risk
    for this will be across the interior with colder temperatures.

  5. The worst of the wind/rain is about to subside now…

    What’s left…
    -Poor drainage flooding, which subsides during midday.
    -Small stream flooding, which peaks today / tonight.
    -River flooding, which re-peaks tomorrow / Monday.
    -High tide flooding, which we’ll know in the next several hours.

    I’m optimistic that the flooding in places like Hampton Beach, despite having astronomically higher tides than the other day, will not exceed the other day’s levels in general due to the lack of storm surge. That does impact the marsh flooding too, because even though it’s not dramatic, the increased ocean level with the surge does enter Hampton Harbor and the water level goes up “quietly”. Suddenly, those areas prone to flooding are inundated.

    It should be noted that many of the areas you saw shown on the news flood quite often. Even in fair weather, during a super moon high astro tide,they get inundation in those Brown Avenue area neighborhoods. Add a storm surge to it and …. you don’t need a super moon or even a really high astronomical tide to result in what we’ve seen this week. And that addition is enough to result in a larger area of inundation than is more typical.

    Hopefully they, and other vulnerable areas, get through this one OK. I don’t see a repeat of this any time soon.

      1. Not that I can see. The storm that threatens at the end of next week looks more like a frozen (snow) event to me and we’re entering a very different atmospheric set-up starting after the current system departs.

  7. Thanks TK.

    Some water has returned to my basement but considerably dryer than the last event. Oil burner is a-ok.

  8. Maybe Boston can snow more than Worcester for the Tuesday event. If eastern sections can get the bulk of the snow for future systems this month, WATCH OUT Worcester! It is reachable if conditions are just right with storms more “offshore”. We will see.

    Worcester = 18.5”
    Boston = 4.0”

  9. Good morning and thank you TK.
    As Tom said, another great wtite-up.much appreciated.

    Once again, NEVER heard the wind.
    I think I am in a lucky area. With a SE wind, there is a lot of city for it to pass over before it gets to my house. I do think that it lessens the wind here.

  11. Calm here and I’m assuming winds were not as high as other two since nothing is overturned in the yard.

    We had 1.12. I read the 66 gust in westerly. My sons ex and his son live there.

  13. Thanks TK – wind died really fast here in South Dartmouth – high tide was at 9:07am. Waves not as large as previous storms but tide definitely noticeably higher

    1. Loosening pressure gradient. This is the initiation of the secondary low which will drop the wind off markedly across most of the region, before a southwest to west wind picks up behind it. We’re just about at the end of the onshore wind phase of this one.

      1. I hope the onshore piece is over. Lost power once already and it’s time to walk the shore … better walk with less wind at this time of the year.

      2. Great discussion – thank you. We went from window rattling wind to a light breeze – borderline stillness within a half hour.

      1. Yep. All three storms it’s coming in where foundation meets house if I understand correctly. He will need a French drain. The neighbors who have been there over 30 years have never had problems and have never had the river and canal this high.

        1. French drain is good. I got that years ago after we got flooded twice. It doesn’t prevent everything but it does a pretty good job, it’s expensive though.

        2. Vicky,
          My son in Chicago had the same problem. He had an Interior Drain Tile System installed and he wish he’d done it earlier!
          Now, he can think about refinishing his basement.

    2. The 12z NAM for one thing is not in its prime zone at that time frame, and it also looks like it’s ingested some bad data on initialization. That outcome is so much on a different planet that it’s immediately toss-worthy. Don’t bother paying attention to it.

  18. I am thinking of a drive over to Lynn and vicinity for high tide. Not sure though that the waves hitting the sea wall will be all that dramatic.

      3. I mentioned last night..I think ….that I’m going with you and WxW. And I think Pete said the same. Cant best that team

        Oh and it was Longshot who shared rhe quote I posted yesterday. It’s a great one

  23. Thank you, TK.

    Lots of water in boiler room, basement wells (which were vacuumed out yesterday!) and elsewhere, including trash area. Thankfully not in my unit. But there’s damage in the upper parts of the building as water has seeped in. These will be major and costly repairs.

    Week ahead does look drier and much more like winter. Really grateful for that. But I don’t think we should get our hopes up about a sustained period of true winter or much in the way of snow. Maybe 5 to 7 days of below normal to normal temps with a bit of snow, but as my Dutch and English met friends keep reminding me, the cold in the Northeast of America (including Southern Quebec and the Maritimes) and the cold in Northwestern Europe is neither particularly cold or has much in the way of staying power. It’s a very different story in other parts of North America (Plains, for example) and Europe (Scandinavia and Russia, for example), to be sure, where record cold and big snows are on tap.

    1. While we have mostly below normal temps on tap from about Monday for about 10 days (sustained pretty much), we relax a little after that, but I think our most sustained period of cold this winter arrives in February. This will end up different than the last few years.

      Some of the reasons for this were outlined in my winter outlook. Others potentials have popped up since. We’ll chat more about those.

  26. To TK:

    Just left the Lynn / Swampscott shore. Walked and got soaked through. Waves coming over the splash wall onto street. Had to call police to shut part of the shore drive off … it was flooded and there was an accident. Worth seeing but part of drive may be shut off.

  28. Thanks TK.

    1.18” of rain here and 4.43” on the week (total both storms).

    Far cry from what we received from the last storm (about a third as much rain).

    Sorry to hear about those with basement flooding issues. Hopefully this will be the last significant rain storm we have to deal with again until at least March.

    1. Thank you. And thank you, Tom, above. A friend of my DIL owns a home on one of the islands off of Portland. He lets son and family use it yearly. I’ll send this to them.

        1. Yeah I don’t know myself . I think for what I’m seeing & hearing from squirrel reports & different photos it looks to be not that bad , but again it’s just what I’m seeing . I may take ride over there as I am not doing anything

  45. 59F in Back Bay and partly sunny. Such a strange (almost dystopian) week in mid January, bookended essentially (though I know tomorrow will be considerably colder than today) by two major rain events, capping a 32 week run of quite a number of such episodes.

    Didn’t reach freezing in Boston, at least where I am, from Tuesday early morning until … well, Sunday night, most likely. I don’t think it will freeze here over night in Back Bay. Perhaps 34F.

    Unless it snows Tuesday night – I’m skeptical about there being much more than a very light snowfall – or Friday – idem ditto – look for the cold that does come to our region this week to be substantially mitigated, especially at the coast. It will certainly feel like winter, finally. This I’m happy about.

    2. The warmth outside is not a weird feeling anymore as we are what how many winters in a row now we end up having multiple warm days . I am very comfortable in a long sleeve T & vest on most days of the week . Although it could get cold next week , does it have staying power , is it extreme cold ? I sure hope the snow pans out next week as January is moving along fast .

  46. 57 with scattered clouds in North Providence.
    Will enjoy the afternoon dog walk without her having to wear her coat.

  47. 12Z Euro

    10:1 snow for tomorrow snow squall

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2024011312&fh=36&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    for Tuesday, Call out the National Guard!!!

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2024011312&fh=78&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    10:1 snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_024h-imp&rh=2024011312&fh=90&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    12Z Euro for the 20th. The Euro didn’t get the memo yet!
    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2024011312&fh=162&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    24 hour 10:1 snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_024h-imp&rh=2024011312&fh=180&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

  50. 18Z HRRR is calling for RAIN in Eastern sections during
    Squall approach.

    Interesting as it also says temps in Mid – upper 30s

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2024011318&fh=28&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    In my experience, even if these things spit rain at the outset, they almost immediately go over to rain.

    I remember one such instance while I was in high School
    Temp was in the mid 40s and it spit a little rain and went right to snow and snowed 2 inches before it was done. It was awesome. So other than a bit of rain at the outset, I see this squall event as SNOW. We shall see. 🙂

  51. North, thanks for asking. I count my blessings. My unit was spared, partly because I had them vacuum out the wells yesterday. By the way, they’re both pretty full already from last night’s storm. There’s just nowhere for the water to go. Even a half inch storm would have produced problems when things are this oversaturated.

    Other parts of my building aren’t faring as well. We’ll have someone assess the damage on Monday or Tuesday.

    1. Good for your unit. Hope the rest of the damage isn’t too bad. I think we should name all of these horrendous rainmakers Tonga events.

  52. Infected with the HRRR

    they almost immediately go over to rain. =>
    they almost immediately go over to SNOW!!!

  54. As my thermometer hits close to 60F almost feel like going to the community garden to plant some spring seeds. Soil is very soft and moist. But I know that would be foolish. Really dumb.

  56. Ok.

    I actually drove thru N Attleboro on the way to RI to pick up our new dog.

    From Texas, 1-2 yrs old, has had a traumatic short life.

    Poor thing is down by our front door and my youngest deserves a medal for working with her to start to build that first bit of trust.

    Our last dog, was 4 and just came in the house, up the stairs and kicked me off the couch within 2 minutes 🙂 🙂 🙂

    Anyhow, the coastal flooding looks impressive and the highway medians on the drive to RI had a lot of water in them. Crossed a couple swollen rivers too.

        1. You have one very lucky pup. And a very special daughter. How special that you have given this girl a bright future

  58. This flood event will go into the books with some of our top weather events, no doubt.

    There will be much to talk about regarding it and other things going forward.

    For now, just hoping recovery goes well in places hardest hit. The worst is just about behind us now and the good news is, despite a shift to a more typical winter pattern, I don’t see any storms on the horizon that will bring conditions like what we have seen this week.

    I’ll try to share a few videos and pics in a while of what I took today.

  59. HRRR did great this week with rainfall amounts in my area. RRFS not so much. Also HRRR was the one that caught on to the rain back building on RI into my area this morning and lasting until after 9am.

  61. Raining here in Back Bay. What else is new? I realize it’s a passing shower. But, you know what, we’ve kind of had enough at this point.

      1. Which isn’t really a surprise since going into it we knew we’d be dominated by mild weather in the Northeast, and that El Nino winters, in terms of snowfall, tend to start slow, with most significant snowfalls near or after January 20.

        The last 2 rainstorms are playing a roll in changing the entire hemispheric pattern, along with other things as well.

  66. The 18z GFS is trying to join the other guidance for a light snow Tuesday.

    It’s not much, but a little something.

      1. Yes, still see that as the most likely outcome. But also can’t discount a lighter (I.e., 2-5”) event. I don’t really see a scenario where it’s a complete miss though.

  69. Curious why a snow game would be postponed and not a 0 degree game. There may be some good reasoning. So I’m just wondering

      1. That makes a lot of sense. I don’t know what wind chill etc is in Kansas but I’d think there’d be a risk at those low temps too. Maybe not close to as much as travel . I can see a ton of extra people on the road would make a mess all around.

        1. There were 3 anyway since there was already a Monday game. 🙂

          Now instead of 2, 3, 1, it’s 2, 2, 2. 🙂

          2. I checked his followers. Eric, hoenig in NH, JR, Pete, and a bunch more. Says he is a social meteorologist whatever that means. But suspect while maybe an on air met he is respected.

  72. Thunder can be involved in Sunday’s squalls. It’ll be added to the morning update. Also, snowfall rates of up to 3 inches per hour, but probably a max of 2 inches because of the shorter duration.

    Tuesday system, moderate snowfall for most of the region.

  73. I like the Canadian best for Tuesday. Is it because I think it is correct? No. I just like that outcome best of all the models and I hope it is correct.

    1. I think the jury is still out on the 20th sytem. We should startto see something neaningful and so far, blah blah minor stuff.

    1. Wow ! Great Lakes have to be so warm, I’d think the lake effect stuff in an average year, which can be prolific, well, what’s higher than prolific ? 🙂 🙂 🙂

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