Saturday January 27 2024 Forecast (9:16AM)

174 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 27-31)

Down the home stretch of the first month of 2024 we go, and the pattern remains active in this El Nino winter. So far, the great majority of the winter has seen the polar jet stream well to the north of our region. It’s dipped southward plenty in other parts of the hemisphere, but hasn’t seemed to want to visit the northeastern US. There are changes ahead in that, but not enough to help put too much cold in place for our next upcoming storm. Before we get there, we have a break today between yesterday’s morning event and the Sunday-Monday event. But lots of low level moisture is hanging out with us and keeping it overcast and still on the damp side. But a weak frontal boundary coming down from the north will introduce drier air as we go through the day, and while clouds may break, I’m not looking for complete clearing. Any partial clearing we do get would be erased tonight as clouds from the next low pressure system move into the region. And then comes the next storm. Low pressure will pass south of New England between late Sunday and early to midday Monday, its track is what would be a typically good spot for a solid snowstorm through the region in late January. However, the aforementioned missing cold air mass makes that more difficult. Cold air will become involved though, both advecting in from the north and also from above through the “dynamic cooling” process. It’s the timing of these that will determine rain to snow changeover, how much sleet may accompany the transition, and in the end, what the final snowfall totals are across the region. My thought process on that hasn’t changed that much from yesterday. Snow accumulation ranges will be broad enough to account for the uncertainty, but tight enough so that you should at least have a good idea of what ballpark you’ll be in for snowfall. The following is a general breakdown of the storm…

Precipitation arrival time / type: Shield of precipitation enters via the CT/RI coast pre-dawn Sunday as rain, then overspreads the region southwest to northeast during the morning so that by noon the leading edge is arriving around the NH Seacoast. Anywhere away from the South Coast, but most especially in higher elevations, precipitation can start as mixed rain/snow or even just wet snow as temperatures will straddle the rain/snow production borderline. If dew points are low enough, a brief early-on period of dynamic can take place for earlier snowfall, at least temporarily. During Sunday afternoon and early evening the warm advection portion of the precipitation will take place, a moderate burst, which will fall as mainly rain for the South Coast, and Cape Cod to the MA South Shore, but mixed rain/snow to all snow at times in the I-95 corridor, and mix to mostly snow across interior southern NH through the Merrimack Valley and central MA. Mid level dry air will work northward later Sunday evening, creating a taper off for a few hours in the precipitation, especially south of I-90. Area that were raining continue to see lighter rain/drizzle, and some areas that were seeing mix/snow probably go over to a period of lighter rain for a while. The higher terrain of interior southern NH and MA from the I-495 belt westward stay cold enough for snow, and also are less affected by the dry slot, if at all. Beyond this, the overnight hours to early or mid morning Monday will be when the greatest amount of cold air is pulled into the system from the north, along with additional dynamic cooling from above. This is when snow will overtake the entire region from northwest to southeast in mix/rain areas, including but lastly Cape Cod, and there will be a temporarily increase in the intensity of precipitation in response to intensifying surface low pressure. This is when most of the snow accumulation will take place east of I-95 and south of I-90. Snow ends by late morning or midday Monday from northwest to southeast as low pressure begins to pull away.

Total snowfall: Keep in mind that this is for the entire event, and depending on precipitation type, the total snowfall will not be the amount of snow on the ground at any given location. Even in areas that stay all snow to the northwest have a wet snow for a good part of the storm, and compacting will occur there before it flips to a lower water content snowfall later in the storm. Looking for up to 1 inch Outer Cape Cod / Islands and immediate South Coast of MA/RI and eastern CT, 1-3 inches remainder of Cape Cod and Plymouth MA area to Providence RI area through interior southeastern CT, 3-6 inches in the majority of the I-95 corridor including Boston and northern RI to northeastern CT and lower elevations of south central MA as well as the NH Seacoast, and 6-10 inches interior southern NH and the western Merrimack Valley west and southwest through central MA. Highest snowfall occurs in higher elevations.

Flooding: No major issues, both rivers and coastal areas.

Wind: Top gusts may reach 50 MPH across Cape Cod early hours of Monday from the northeast. No major wind issues for the remainder of the region.

Power outages: Moderate risk of power outages in areas where heaviest snowfall occurs due to the higher water content nature of the snowfall for much of the storm. Lower risk of wind-related power outages Cape Cod.

Post-storm, we start to see clearing later Monday and then dry and seasonably cold weather is ours to finish off the month as high pressure moves in Tuesday and Wednesday.

TODAY: Cloudy morning with patchy drizzle and areas of fog. Mostly cloudy but breaks of sun possible afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Overcast. Rain/mix/snow develops southwest to northeast by midday and continues afternoon with greatest chance of snow interior higher elevations, but also periods of alternating precipitation type closer to the I-95 belt while mostly rain falls in the coastal areas especially south. Highs 37-44 by midday, then slowly but unevenly falling temperatures. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas by late-day.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Precipitation of varying intensity may stop at times especially south of I-90 where more rain than snow is likely, and will be steadiest I-90 north where more snow is likely, with more of transition to snow working southeastward overnight when precipitation is steadier. Lows 25-32 by dawn. Wind NE 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH Cape Cod where gusts 40-50 MPH are possible.

MONDAY: Overcast with snow likely in the morning. Snow ending with breaking clouds afternoon. Temperatures steady 25-32. Wind NE-N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas through midday.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 12-19. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 1-5)

Trough drops down from Canada with snow shower chances February 1-2. Dry weather follows. Temperatures variable but averaging near to slightly below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 6-10)

Storm potential somewhere in the early to middle portion of this period. Fair weather follows. Temperatures near normal for the period though somewhat variable.

174 thoughts on “Saturday January 27 2024 Forecast (9:16AM)”

  5. Well, now the 12z nams uave backed off some. geez can’t they make uo their minds????
    intensity is now my concern. without it, it rains until cold air infusion occurs.

    What will the intensity be???
    And who needs a stinken dry slot!!@

    Arg&hhhhhhhhhhhhh

    1. The 12z NAM actually has higher snowfall for Boston than the 06z did for the 12km, and a little less for the 3km, but that’s literally 10ths of inches difference. It’s negligible.

  6. I’m going with 5.2 for Sutton. This is based on absolutely nothing. I was on the dot with 7 for two storms ago and wayyyyyy off for last storm.

  8. Looking at the 12z HRRR and NAM a snow to rain to snow situation. HRRR more aggressive with the snow at the end of the storm system. NAM more aggressive with the snow at the beginning of the storm system.
    #MESSORAMA

  10. My daughter needs to drive from Natick to Halifax Mass for work Monday morning about 8. What will conditions look like? Concerned about her snow driving.

    1. Slow driving, I don’t think it’ll be intense but roads could be slippery along that path – you’ve got to account for multiple towns and their road treatments.

  11. Thanks Tk. Question on the 3-6 range for Boston . Would you say closer to the low end or higher end . I saw last night most were calling for 3 inches in Boston .

    1. Also are there any thoughts on the possibility of dry air & warmer temps hanging on longer , meaning less accumulation.

  12. Thanks, TK.

    As JJ put it, a “messorama.” Not exactly what the doctor ordered in late January, especially after all the rain we’ve gotten. This storm has a distinct March flavor to it.

    Frankly, in the long term nothing excites me. There will be some colder days with some sun. I’m happy about that. But overall the picture is rather ho-hum.

      1. My fear is with warming we are seeing our future and more. And I know there will be exceptions and I know seasons have shifted but darn.

  14. Thank you TK – such a thorough discussion- while we have a long period of winter still to go – in my opinion – I feel like we are through the worst of it as far as length of darkness and chances for sustained long cold. February feels different – while still winter – just feels more hopeful – a bit brighter and the birds start to chirp a bit louder – and if the big snowstorm does materialize it will likely melt faster than December or January.

    1. For sure. Even if there are big snow hits in February and March – remember what happened in 2013 – they usually disappear rather quickly. And the cold in February and March definitely feels different from December and January (though this year we didn’t have much cold in either December or January).

    2. In terms of darkness, yes.
      In terms of cold & snow events, no.

      Nothing has changed in my long range outlook, and this is also keeping in mind that when I forecast a drier trend for February, it was a forecast trend WITH the HTE wildcard in place. I went drier because I felt the HTE would initiate stronger blocking and a further south storm track. That’s no guarantee. I still think it goes there, but it may take longer, and then it may not be as influential as I suspect.

    3. Couldn’t agree more. Also we are almost done with January and my usual winter fatigue has not become embedded.

  17. Dank day. Good for doing taxes, I guess. Fun!

    Turbo Tax premium predicted it would take me 2 hours to fill out my taxes. Well, I’m already at the 3 hour mark and not even close to being done. Every year it’s the same. Turbo Tax is kind of like the airline that says “there will be a 5 to 10 minute delay” and 30 minutes later they’re not nearly ready for boarding.

    The other problem is not getting 1099-NECs and 1099-DIVs, whether electronically or by mail. Some entities wait until the very last moment to send these. I have periodic employees and mail out their 1099s as early in the month as possible.

  18. JP Dave, non-weather related. Have I ever asked you in the past if you were a fan of the band Devo?

      1. If anybody knows just one song by Devo, that’s the one.

        Impressive catalog this band has. But you have to listen to them with a certain mindset to get it. 🙂 I’m a huge fan – have been for years. 🙂

  19. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh&rh=2024012700&fh=192&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=500wh&rh=2024012700&fh=192&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    While we wait for the 12z GFS ….. here’s a snapshot 8 days out.

    Big picture, more blocky, more amplified pattern ahead.

    Watch this time frame. Models at this distance, cutting off a deep 500 mb low.

    More chances that it ends up providing cold and dry (maybe flurries and snow shower chances), BUT, if this upper flow materializes and that 500 mb low ends up south or southeast of us, the snow lovers will rejoice.

  24. I’m not sure I agree with anyone’s projections.

    As an example, Lowell’s elevation is 31m, close to 100 ft …..

    I think their accumulation projections are too high.

    I guess if the words ELEVATION DEPENDENT were written in those higher contours, I could buy in. But within those bigger amts, there are lower elevation locations that I don’t think are going to verify. One higher elevation town right next to a lower elevation town or within the same town could have very different amts.

    1. There is a significant aspect to this one that is not totally elevation-dependent. Actually a couple.

      While the dynamic cooling aspect is, to some degree (no pun intended), it’s a strong enough process that elevation will only matter at first.

      The other aspect is a little disturbance to enhance the snowfall during the colder phase of the storm. That may play into the possibility of areas south and southwest of Boston over-achieving projections.

  26. Thanks TK.

    Nice winters morning here in Jackson NH. It has been snowing lightly most of the morning and there is a deep, dense snowpack… I’d say 12-16” on the ground. They did get rain yesterday PM but it started as accumulating snow and according to the cross country ski report, it was a net gain at the end of the day.

    Despite the snow in the air, I definitely can attest to it not feeling that cold outside. It’s 34F and I don’t think I am going to wear anything beyond a sweatshirt when we head out cross country skiing in a few minutes.

    I snapped a picture outside the inn when we arrived last night. Different world up here….

    https://i.postimg.cc/63F8VMD2/IMG-7925.jpg

    1. Lovely. Thank you, Mark. We never stayed at the wentworth which surprises me a bit since we skied Tyrol just north of it almost exclusively for our last years of skiing. When older I’d go to the lounge with friends. Lovely old inn

  27. Cone of Uncertainty Changing

    My weather readings these days have been about reservoir levels (more complicated than you would think), the use of AI in forecasting (not so believable), and the 2024 hurricane season.

    Though not announced by the National Hurricane Center, I have read that the Cone of Uncertainty will be changing. Once the Cone reaches landfall in the continental USA, Watches and Warnings will be added to the it. Below is a picture of a picture the new Cone (true name is Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone)

    https://i.imgur.com/7fjGLSM.jpg

    A couple of years ago, the size of the Cone sort of shrank by 4-5% or at least I think it did. This new addition is because the powers that be do not believe the public understands the Cone.

    1. I don’t like it in the least. It’s total trash if you ask me.
      Give me the cone straight like it used to be!!!!!!!!!

      Someone is full of shit making these decisions!

    2. Most of the reason it’s not understood is because people don’t bother to read what’s right in front of them.

      Same thing applies to the 6-10/8-14 day forecasts from CPC.

      Those are percentage changes of departure, not temperature departure magnitudes.

      1. I absolutely agree. Yet we play to the folks who won’t take the time to understand no matter what is done.

  28. Thanks TK.

    I think we probably end up with an overachiever, all storms have been underwhelming so we are due. No scientific reason for this one 🙂

    As far as science I see how we overachieve with that added disturbance on the back end. Let’s go with 6 inches in JP!!! 3.7 at Logan. lol

  29. Mark, great picture. Does look like a different world.

    Our world in Boston is Glaswegian, as I mentioned earlier this week. I’ve taken up whisky drinking, mornings, afternoons and evenings, to get in the spirit of things.

  31. Where have I heard this….

    Eric fisher tweet

    “ Honestly feels like we’re doing the exact strong El Nino script. Torched December, lots of precip, slow start, a January cold hit to start things, but most of our snow likely to fall mid-Feb thru mid-Mar”

    1. Sounds similar to 1969 I believe. Snow events didn’t get going at least here in Boston until that particular timeframe.

  32. So here we are about 24 hours out, and you see a lot of model spread in details regarding snowfall totals. That’s not really unusual for a marginal temp set-up, nor is it even frustrating to me. It’s expected.

    In forecasting, unless there happens to be a model that represents your thoughts down to the letter, it’s not usually about picking the model you think is best, it’s about making the best forecast you can make, based on the available information.

    One can argue there is “too much” info. But that’s kind of a matter of opinion to be honest. As a forecaster, when you look at this stuff over and over, it becomes pretty clear in most instances what to pay less mind to, and what to examine more.

    Harvey Leonard once said, when asked about watching his competitors, “I don’t watch my competitors as much as I used to. I want to make the best forecast that I can make, and control only the things I can control.” (People Are Talking, WBZ-TV, circa 1988.)

    You can speak similarly of the “information”. Yes it’s there for our benefit, but it comes back to knowing what not to pay attention to just as much as knowing what to examine.

    You can compare the inches and tenths of snowfall run to run for the RRFS, HRRR, any of the several versions of the NAM, the ICON, the GFS, the GDPS, the ECMWF, etc, but that in itself will do very little for your forecast. It’s about understanding the meteorology of the situation, and these tools are only a part of the guide in helping to understand it. Control what you can control. Make the best forecast you can make with the combination of knowledge, experience, and available tools, chosen as wisely as possible.

      1. Todd was an interesting person. Nice enough person but…, Having dealt with his wrath after he was escorted out of whdh, a good part of me thinks his ego had something to do with that.

        We were friends with a good friend of Harvey’s. One of the times we met was at our friends 40th birthday party. There was a lot of attention when Harvey arrived. He played it down with grace and quietly made sure the focus went back to the birthday guy

        Such different personalities

    2. My take after looking at the models is that
      925 and 850 MB temps support snow throughout from Boston N&W. The issue is the boundary layer temperatures and the intensity of the precipitation. Although QPF appears to be 1 inch to 1 inch + on most models, viewing the composite radar simulations concerns me that intensity may not be there to dynamically make it snow at lower elevations. This is the critical component. So right now, I haven’t a clue as to WHAT we will get. As far as I am concerned, it could go either way.

      I will say this, the ocean temperature is “about” 5 degrees or so cooler than when we had the system in early January where there was much rain at the coast. That could be the deciding factor. I mentioned it before, but last i looked today it was 41.9 today.

      Some snow forecasts could be way off.

      I am excited to see how it all plays out, either way. 🙂

      1. I can look at the info today make a case for Logan getting 1 inch and back it up to make it sound reasonable. I can also do the same thing and make a case for Logan getting a half foot and make it sound reasonable. Both are legit possibilities, as is everything in between. 🙂

        1. Yes, I totally Agree. We just don’t know exactly and that is why I am so excited to see what happens.

          I don’t know it is wish casting or not, but I think we do better in Boston than many of the forecasts. We shall see.

          I’d still feel better if the models showed stronger radar echoes. 🙂

  33. Thanks TK, great discussion!

    My numbers would be very similar to yours. For that 3-6″ zone, I would mostly lean towards the lower end. I would say more like 2-3″ for Boston itself. But I like the idea of a solid (and heavy!) 6-10″ where you have it, and maybe some 12+ totals especially in the higher terrain.

    Agree with the remainder of your forecast too. A (much needed) mostly dry interlude for 6-8 days following this storm, then multiple winter storm possibilities should present themselves from 2/5-2/15.

    1. I was just discussing with somebody (off the blog) about a couple of approximately 10 to 14 day stretches where the “snow guns” can be a focused on this area. I basically used the same date range – I said Feb 6-20, and then another one around the start of March (+/-).

      In my winter forecast I had 35-45 for Boston’s seasonal total, the top of which is just a few inches below the 49 long term average. I believe they can reach the top side of that range, or even exceed it a bit.

      1. Totally agree, and yeah I don’t think 2/15 is “the end”, I just think even by then there will have been about 2 solid winter storm threats.

        And yep, I’ve stuck with the idea that Boston will come in above average for seasonal snow, and not gonna change that now. Not that 45” vs 55” is that much of a difference 😉

    2. Always good WX. Wankum liked 3 for Boston last night . I have a gut feeling it could possibly be less , again it’s just a hunch . It definitely won’t be snow until Sunday evening or mix . I’m expecting even less on the SS .

  34. For those interested,

    1) the B’s are playing the Flyers maybe at 1 PM and

    2) there is talk that BB, who is totally upset about not getting the Falcons’ job, could forego any more coaching interviews this year. He might wait til 2025 or see who gets fired mid-season. There has been talk of him going to the Giants should Brian Daboll start making mistakes. Bill is friends with the Giants’ owners.

    3) the under/over for Boston’s snow at Logan is 1.85.”

    1. Word on the street is AR is retiring when chiefs season is over , which will be tomorrow hopefully!!

              1. That’s a pretty poor assumption. I wasn’t even thinking of that. We know how much you hate the Pats and dislike their fans, you’ve made that very clear. 😉

                I don’t care if Mahomes catches Brady. If he does, he deserves it. Stop lumping us all into one big group, because we’re not. 😉

                Wanna know why I’m rooting for Baltimore? Because I like their uniforms better. 😉

                BTW: Last year, I rooted for KC in the super bowl, as a Pats fan. That must crack you up. 😉

                2. I’ll root for Baltimore. I am not a mahomes fan but has nothing to do with Brady. If he catches Brady fine. IMO there is no one who has brady’s flawless mechanics. Record or no.

                  My reason for backing Baltimore goes sling with my choice of snowfall amounts. Thr numbers I pick all have meaning. And Baltimore …well Mac was born in Cumberland.

    2. 1) Watching. Late face-off because of a celebration in Philly.
      2) He could use a break. I wish him the best. 🙂
      3) 4.6. There are going to be 2 surprises. But there will never be that much on the ground at once.

    1. In the early days, that was their signature song. 🙂

      There are at least four studio versions of that tune and I have all of them.

      Have you noticed “Uncontrollable Urge” being used in a current TV commercial? Interesting to hear that tune over TV in 2024.

      I was introduced to them in the late 1970s by my brother and have been a fan ever since. I love their early raw sounding nerdy industrial counterculture approach to music.

      The band evolved or devolved lol as it may be and has had different sounds but never really lost that core Devo feel even with some personnel changes.

      Of course many of the fans know that Mark is a composer of music for a lot of video games and TV shows, including the Rugrats. 😉

      1. I laugh when I look at their lyrics online. Some snippets from “Uncontrollable Urge”:

        [Refrain]
        Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah-yeah-yeah-yeah-yeah-yeah-yeah-yeah!
        Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah-yeah-yeah-yeah-yeah-yeah-yeah-yeah!

        [Chorus]
        (He’s got an uncontrollable urge!)
        I’ve got an uncontrollable urge!
        (He’s got an uncontrollable urge!)
        I’ve got an uncontrollable—

      2. I’ll jump in on the music convo. I have a substantial vinyl collection that would bring tears to Beatles fans especially.

        But…

        This morning, I cranked Heart’s “Dreamboat Annie” album.

        Both sides are just plain awesome. What a record.

        1. I’m going to venture to say the Beatles vinyl collection here matches if not exceeds that one. 🙂 We’ll have to compare sometime!

  38. Overachiever on the way IMHO. Part one goes down the drain at the coast. Part two of the storm is key. Look for it to deepen as it slides south and east of southern New England with an earlier collapse of the rain/snow line all the way to the coast sooner than the hi-res models are able to see. The dynamics will yank down the relatively colder air and overwhelm the stubborn boundary layer. We’ve seen these scenarios play out often during the Burbank era. My guess is that the higher end of the forecasts pan out.

      2. Just NOT liking the intensity portrayed. Tough to stay snow and accumulate with that piss-poor intensity. This thing had better get cranking!!!

        IF we had a more intense storm, we would get plastered!!!!!

  47. With the HRRR as the storm intensifies, it is simply NOT throwing back very intense snow at all. Good for a couple of inches is all. What a BUMMER!

  52. Looking at that map I am not far away from that 4-6 area that is just north of me. Always in these elevation situations if I take a ride up RT 63 a different story a from an inch or two to several inches. So close yet so far.

  53. Hadi, nice “slap” for Pats fans back there. You should probably think before you lump us all into one category. Just a piece of advice. 😉

    I won’t say anything about Commanders fans. Not my style. 🙂

      1. I am too, and it very well may, and I stand by what I say. If he catches Brady, he deserves every ounce of praise and recognition he gets for doing it.

      1. Nah. I’ve been there. I was a Pats fan when they sucked before they were great. I lived through a fair amount of the Red Sox curse. In my favorite sport, hockey, I had to watch a lot of Bruins disappointment between 1972 (which I don’t remember) and 2011 (which I do). 🙂

        In terms of the Pats, I don’t think we will ever see a 20 year run like that by any team in any sport. Some people will never know how spoiled we (the fan base) became. Which again is the reason I’ll never complain again. Disappointing season this year? Yep. Do I care? Not really.

        1. Agree doubt they ever happens again and unless you over 35 years old you have never really known a bad football tesm.

  55. Once MJO manages to get to phase 7, it may drift around 7 & 8 for quite a while. It’s taken a very long time but it’s approaching 7 now.

    1. Was out here for a bit. More clouds than sun now. I went out to grab the snowman decorating pieces and the yard is a swamp.

  59. It is rather gloomy, as JP Dave pointed out.

    I mentioned above in jest that I was turning to whisky for comfort, mornings, afternoons and evenings, as Boston turned into Glasgow for a week.

    Kidding aside, I do understand why there’s so much drinking at that latitude and with the crummy, dark weather they endure. That cannot be easy.

    1. I’m banking on that low cranking more than models are indicating the moment it slides to our east. Dynamics would take over then and that is when we get our moderate snowstorm.

  62. On the theme of music

    What is all time favorite song in Norway. Artist and title.

    Bonus point who recorded it first.

    Bonus bonus point how many weeks was it a number one in Norway

    No peaking please

    1. Haven’t a clue. Abba was Sweden. I think Ace of Base was Norwegian, but I am certainly NOT sure of that.
      Otherwise, I haven’t a clue. 🙂

        1. Thank you for trying. You will know the song. But it surprised me as I don’t think of it as being Norwegian

        1. All reports I’m seeing have Boston at 2-3 inches . They are in the 3-6 zone but have not heard one met on tv go over 3 .

          1. Ssk not sure if you are replying to me because of my earlier comment to you . If so did you read my words. I was careful to say those numbers were from last night

            But this is what I’m seeing for Boston and your areas as if this afternoons forecasts.

            Whdh Boston 3-6 you are 1-3
            https://whdh.com/weather/

            Nbc10 2-4 Boston 1-3 for you
            https://www.nbcboston.com

            Wbz c-2 Boston and you.
            https://www.cbsnews.com/boston/weather/

            Here is my pet peeve…..It really important for folks to add a link when they are quoting a met. It isn’t fair to the Mets to paraphrase. They get enough flak as is

            I know you don’t know how to post a link and I absolutely understand. But I’ve offered to show you how. It is not hard. But it takes getting used to

            In the meantime. Saying all the Mets isn’t fair either. I just shared three of our main Mets and not one said 2-3. May I respectfully request that you give a Mets name and then his or her forecasts.

            And I’m not clear on what this means “ They are in the 3-6 zone but have not heard one met on tv go over 3”

            How are they in 3-6 if no one is going over 3. I may well be missing what you mean on that one though so just asking for clarification.

            Disclaimer. I posted links so please feel free to correct me if I misreported

          2. The maps were posted here earlier. They were not all 2-3 for Boston. There was 2-4, 1-3, 3-6, and under 2 depending on the source. I have them in 3-6, leaning toward the lower side of that, and I have made no changes to that forecast as of an early review of the 00z info. 🙂

            1. Yep what I said. And I’m guessing hadi is right about your 3-6

              Still would like to see either links or names. And yes that’s my pet peeve …sorry about that Or am I. It’s 12:53am and I cannot be held responsible for anything I say. ❤️

  65. Saw one link showing QPF at just under 1 inch. Does that mean that is maximum water that will fall in combination of both snow and rain?

  68. Weatherbug is showing rain for Boston until the early hours of Monday morning. Potential changeover sometime after midnight.

  69. Here is the thing for me with the nfl playoffs.
    1. My hope was the Lions and Bills got to the superbowl. That would have been an awesome game with two fan bases that deserve it.
    2. I do not like KC for a multipe reasons but have to say you can not hate the Kelce brothers, they are really relatable. (People that play on the oline seem to generally be the normal down to earth players Kind of like the hockey players) In terms of Mahomes if you complained about Brady and the Patriots getting calls, KC is even worst 😉 KC also has a long long time before we can say they are anywhere near what the Patriots were.
    3. I hope Lamar Jackson gets to the superbowl over Mahomes, Jackson as a person deserves it.
    4. I really do not want KC and the 9ers in the superbowl what a snore fest of a game that will be.

    Enjoy the storm, for some reason I am thinking it might over perform but you need that precipitation to fall on the heavier side. Generally thinking a 3 to 6 inch snow event away from the coast with some areas seeing up to 10 inches inches. 1-3 east of I95 generally speaking.

    1. Along coastal areas it will not overachieve 1-3 for Boston right down through the south shore towns

  70. Important reminder about the snowfall accumulation for the coming system especially in the coastal areas.

    Accumulation is going to take place in 2 stages. The first stage will probably be largely melted before the second stage begins.

    As I stated previously, this means that there will never be as much snow on the ground at any one time as the given location has for total accumulation.

    For example: There can be areas that get 4 inches for the storm but never have more than 2 on the ground at any moment during the event.

    Yes, it still counts the same. That’s how the stats are taken. It’s a standard procedure.

  72. Along the coast for this event the temps
    As has been the case is just going to work against us , this could have been a big one .

    1. The temps this morning are 2 to 3 degrees cooler than forecast, which is interesting. Less work for dynamic cooling for bursts of snow to occur in coastal areas during phase 1 of the storm.

      However, as I have been mentioning all along the coldest portion of this event takes place MONDAY, not today. That includes the South Shore, when the majority of the accumulation occurs.

      If this storm were to be all snow, it would not really be “a big one” but more of a moderate (6-10 type event) for everyone. Instead, expect the accumulations outlined in my blog post. Also, if you haven’t seen my comment from 1:09 a.m., check that out too.

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