Thursday February 15 2024 Forecast (7:07AM)

139 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 15-19)

Two low pressure systems will impact our region during the next 5 days. The first one approaches later today and passes through tonight. It’s a small, fast-moving one but has a decent slug of moisture with it. The low pressure area is destined to pass just to our north, but its warm front will generate a batch of accumulating snow this evening. It will be a short-lived event, not dropping too much snow, but enough to cause slippery travel on untreated surfaces. Once the initial band goes by, a few additional snow showers can occur until a cold front drops through the region early on Friday morning. The balance of Friday will be dry but quite windy and on the cold side. The cold air will keep hold of the region as we get into the holiday weekend. Another small and fast-moving low pressure area will move through the region Saturday. Currently the expectation is that the low center will pass just to our south, with a period of two of mostly light snowfall expected. The snow coverage and any accumulation from this system will come into focus over the next couple days. Another disturbance may bring a snow shower on Sunday, reinforcing the cold air through Monday, when dry weather is expected.

TODAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 31-38. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with snow except some mix/rain South Coast. Snow accumulation generally 1/2 to 2 inches – a few under 1/2 inch amounts possible mainly South Coast, and a few over 2 inch amounts possible mainly north of Route 2. Lows 26-33. Wind shifting to S 5-15 MPH then back to W.

FRIDAY: Any early snow showers ending with a sun/cloud mix. Highs 33-40. Wind W increasing to 15-25 MPH with gusts above 30 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 21-28. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts in the evening, diminishing overnight.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Periods of light snow likely. Highs 28-35. Wind variable to NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with any light snow ending in the evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. A passing snow shower possible. Highs 30-37. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 10.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 20-24)

Snow/rain shower chance about February 22 and snow/mix/rain chance around February 24. Temperatures quite variable during this period with both above normal and below normal days – details worked out later.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 25-29)

One or two additional unsettled weather threats during the last several days of February. Temperatures near to slightly above normal for the period but with day-to-day variability.

139 thoughts on “Thursday February 15 2024 Forecast (7:07AM)”

  6. Good morning and thank you TK
    So far, not excited about any weather events dowm the road.
    Time is ticking…..

    An opportunity missed, is an opportunity missed. we needed that last one for even a remote chance at approaching average snowfall for the season.

    Fat chance of that happening. Could it? sure will it? No way.

  7. There are about 5 eeeks of Winter left. we had better make hay.
    I”ve seen this movie before and I didn’t like it.

  8. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=cfs&rh=2024021500&fh=768

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=cfs&rh=2024021500&fh=684

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=cfs&rh=2024021500&fh=600

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=cfs&rh=2024021500&fh=456

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=cfs&rh=2024021500&fh=396

    TK mentioned this last night.

    00z CFS. Signal for active times ahead. That’s what I take away. Not taking anything to heart on tracks. Just, active.

  10. Though it’s been a disappointing winter, I’m trying to take full advantage of every wintry like day. I spend as much time outdoors as I can on a day like yesterday and today. I have a nagging head cold so I do wear a hat and bundle up.

    Taking the train to Philadelphia this weekend – I hate flying, as you all know and so I avoid it whenever I can – where it’ll be a tad warmer than here and my sister says she’s got plenty of flower shoots in her garden.

  11. To Vicki,

    I actually responded to you yesterday but neither of my 2 comments posted for some reason. (TK is aware.) I know I am having both computer and email problems lately. 🙁

    2. I was just going to say perfect timing for school break. I bet upslope snows will be enhanced as well in the greens.

  15. Thanks TK.

    I do think we have one more decent sized storm, interesting to see the gloom and doom on
    X about the pattern. It see the NAO flipping but honestly the patter isn’t awful for our area.

    Definitely warmer but not too warm. With less blocking maybe we get a system or two up here.

  18. Thanks, TK

    Remembering February 15, 2015.
    There was a snow depth of 34″. The all-time record for Taunton is 45″ on February 12, 1948.

    The low temp on 2-15-15 was -8. Valentine’s night was -9. 2-16 was -3 and 2-17 was -3.

    There were nine negative minimums in February, 2015 and the average low for Taunton/Norton was +4.5.

    (Source: NWS/BOX NOWData)

  24. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850fgen&rh=2024021512&fh=15&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    850 mb frontogenesis

    I don’t fully grasp all the metorology with this, but I’m pretty sure in this case its a good indication of lift and/or overrunning.

    I lines up well with a decent looking band of precip.

    Might be talking 30 mins of mod-briefly heavy snow, but I won’t be surprised if someone gets down to 0.5 mi in moderate snow or even briefly 0.25 mi in S+

    2. Could be, but it wouldn’t last long, that’s for sure.
      Could look pretty interesting for a little while. 🙂

        1. 3Z is 10 PM until DST, then it would be 11PM 🙂

          0Z = 7
          1Z = 9
          2Z = 9
          3Z=10
          4Z = 11
          5Z = midnight
          6Z = 1A

          🙂

    1. Thanks JpDave and yes.

      See if I can stay awake til 11pm. For a half hour, if it works out, might be worth staying up for.

      Marshfield will probably be under the 1 gap in the band. LOL.

  29. Captain, thank you for the reminder of how much SNE looked and felt like the Novosibirsk region in mid February 2015. It wasn’t just the snow depth. It was the real cold that ensued that I loved, prolonged actual cold, not the wishy-washy meh kind we’re having now . February 2011 was similarly snowy and cold. My two all-time favorite snow blitz/cold periods. Will it happen again in my lifetime? Well, maybe, but probably not.

  32. Yikes, this could be quite the hurricane season incoming….

    Michael Lowry
    @MichaelRLowry
    19h

    Sea surface temperatures across the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) — where most of our Category 3 or stronger hurricanes form during the peak months of hurricane season — are as warm today in mid-February as they typically are in middle July. Incredible.

    https://x.com/MattDevittWX/status/1757922614285389830?s=20

    1. Thanks, JJ.

      A rather sad state of affairs. It looks like a leader board for the average number of points scored by, say, the 7th man on a basketball team.

  36. Well, I’m headed to Philadelphia and will be there for the snow event. I’ll be in Havertown, west of the city. Tends to get more snow than the city proper.

    It would be something if I do more shoveling at my sister’s this winter – with that one event – than I’ll have done all winter here in Boston.

  48. I see DB inquiring above, the wind tomorrow will be impactful through wind chill or possibly holding onto the steering wheel a little tighter on the highway. Deepening storm to our west, cold air advection and some sun to mix the atmosphere further.

  49. PM updates & ideas…

    Quick review of 12z info (and 18z short range) . Really no need to change anything in my discussion above. SAK’s Weekend Outlook shows we pretty much agree on the pattern going into and through the weekend. If anything, maybe a tiny trend south on the Saturday system, which wasn’t looking like much to start with anyway. Quick punch of snow tonight. Might even look pretty serious with intensity in a few areas, for an hour or so, while the entire event lasts just a few hours. Then it’s gone, other than maybe a lingering snow shower overnight. That’s why the amounts are low. Small system, fast-moving. Lots of wind on Friday! And even though it’s not a frigid air mass, the wind and the typical cold will combine to make it feel pretty chilly. Already covered Saturday. Sunday, still a snow shower shot.

    Next week no changes. Moderating trend. The system around the 22nd looks minor & mild. Guidance goes their separate ways after that. When that happens, I just leave my general outlook alone and re-evaluate as the runs come in, and look for trends and agreement. Just part of the process.

    2. Good grief. It seems to be a tabloid. That headline sure looks as if it may be. Seems we don’t have a monopoly on trash headlines.

    1. A lot of journalism exists in these “unofficial” news sources and those who run them literally just make stuff up – just to have something to do. They make lame attempts to sound like they know what they’re writing about, which nearly always fails. It’s sad what it’s turned into.

  55. As for TK’s 5:27 PM post … whoever put that junk out there, you deserve the BomboFlop award so far this year.

    I can’t imagine what we will see if a hurricane comes within 1,000 miles of New England … a weather map depicting Armageddon no doubt.

  61. Nothing here. Figuring 10 PM on north shore for the 10flakes I might get.

    Meanwhile, B’s are driving me crazy. If you think Wx forecasting is tough, try B’s forecasting. Down 2-1, Ugh!!

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    2. Nice.

      It has ended here as quickly as it started. Less than an hour of snow, sort of a glorified snow squall. Coated the area of the deck I cleared after the last storm with about a half inch of snow.

  65. Driving back from my daughters softball game tonight, I saw CTDOT plows at three separate highway on ramps just parked on the shoulder with their lights on and waiting for the flakes to fly for 45 min so they can throw a bunch of salt on the roads. Tax dollars at work!

  69. One thing we all missed with tonight’s event was the magnitude of the dry air in place at the start. Most everyone had temperatures in the middle 30s and dewpoints in the single numbers when the radar showed precip moving in It took 1-2 hours for most places to moisten up enough for the snow to reach the ground. When you’ve only got a 4-6 hour storm, and you lose 1-2 hours to evaporation, a forecast of 1-2″ becomes 1″ or less. There’s still more snow showers to come through, but the bulk of the accumulating stuff was in the 1st batch pushing offshore right now.

    1. I was watching the radar and thinking … ok, anytime … and then I realized how dry it was. I hadn’t even kept close track of the dp.

    2. Curious, is the meteorology vs modelology? I have seen that posted in the past and am wondering how the meteorologist determines what the models are missing.

      1. It’s a complex process, and there isn’t even really a “rule book” about it. For me, it’s just experience, observation, and often chatting with others familiar with them.

        Meteorology existed long before models, which are just tools of meteorology. 🙂

        I think the best way to summarize meteorology not modelology is never losing site of what we know about the behavior of the atmosphere, keeping in mind we’re continually learning more about it, while also knowing that we use tools that are not infallible. Learning their limitations is in itself an inexact process, since they are ever changing.

        I’m not sure if this fully answers this, but I hope it gives you an idea of what at least I mean by it. 🙂

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