Wednesday February 14 2024 Forecast (7:22AM)

139 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 14-18)

A cold westerly air flow will chill us off today. A small low pressure system packing a little punch will approach Thursday and bring a minor snowfall to the region as it passes through Thursday night and early Friday. A follow-up system will bring a minor snow chance on Saturday and another disturbance behind that brings the chance of a snow shower on Sunday with continued cold weather.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill near to below 20 at times.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH. Wind chill below 10.

THURSDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 31-38. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snow except some mix/rain South Coast. Snow accumulation under 1 inch South coast, 1 to 3 inches elsewhere, greatest chance of greater than 2 inches north of the Route 2 corridor. Lows 26-33. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Any early snow showers ending with a sun/cloud mix. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 21-28. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers likely. Highs 28-35. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. A passing snow shower possible. Highs 30-37. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 19-23)

Generally dry but cold weather expected February 19 through 23 but can be interrupted by a brief snow event about February 22.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 24-28)

One or two additional winter weather threats during the late part of February. Temperatures near to below normal.

139 thoughts on “Wednesday February 14 2024 Forecast (7:22AM)”

  1. Met bashing still going on on social media even this morning.

    The general public royally sucks. Overpopulated with ignorance.

    I hope they don’t pay attention to us and get stuck for hours in the next significant snowstorm. Yup. I said it. And I’m not sorry. Earned this one folks. 🙂

    Ok, now it’s time to move on…

      1. I saw one that made me burst out laughing.

        It was about making the decision whether or not to listen to any of us for the next snow forecast and then concluding no, not worth it, nor for making weekend plans.

        I’d kind of love it if all of those people somehow could be blocked from all weather forecasts for 1 week (while the rest could see them). Then see how they handle “plans”. 🙂

        That would be freaking funny.

        2. Now that’s an idea I could wrap my head around. My favorite was the nut who said all meteorologists are fabricating forecasts to convince the public warming doesn’t exist. Even sadder he wasn’t alone.

    2. I have worked snow since the mid 60’s. Honestly , as dissapointing as the late model changes were IMHO the storm pretty much performed as forecasted. 50 miles one way or another is not a long distance when you look at the size of these systems.

        1. Happy to give you my 2 cents. What you are seeing is the application of liquid ” Brine”. This is usually applied when surface is a bit colder. It can be applied even 24 hrs. before an event. It is supposed to form a layer between pavement and icing to help with roads becoming hard pack. There are also other materials being tried over the past few years to be more environmentally sound. Beet juice , molasses , beer hops etal. In this case it looks like salt mixed with water to create a liquid. IMHO the jury is still out for what might be better than straight rock salt. Liquid brine is being used more often these days.

    3. Don’t feel bad captain, I’m in the auto service industry, get our heads bashed in everyday. Sometimes we deserve it, sometimes we don’t . Estimates for repair have now become exact numbers.
      Your field of expertise has become an exact science according to the public also. kind of amazing how this exact science caught the best and brightest off-guard. computers are tools at the end of the day and are an aid in forecasting I believe. It was snowing like crazy yesterday in Wareham Ma and it was 37 degrees out ?????????? . Absolutes in life are death and taxes, not the weather.

  3. Thanks TK. Eric F did a nice piece last night with David Wade and it was posted to X and FB and the bashing was awful. These people have no idea. They should be ashamed of themselves. I guarantee you they would never say those things to anyone’s face.

    1. Oh never. It’s all keyboard and phone warrior crap.

      We used to say that back in the CB radio days about a mystery person who would broadcast nasty stuff. “Big Man Behind The Mike” or something like that. 🙂

  4. Yup, the Founding Father’s could not have anticipated technology mixing with First Amendment Rights. Some people just don’t earn/deserve to be able to share their thoughts, as they can’t handle it with respect or maturity.

    1. I love the rights, and I love the tech. It’s the people who can’t conduct themselves respectfully that I cannot appreciate. 🙂

    2. very ttrue.

      I fell badly for the met community sfter whatbjust happened.

      One thing, we here knew something was up very earky in the game.

  5. Good morning and thank you TK

    Ocean temp 40 3

    If the system Thurs night were passong just South I’d be more excited about some snow. when they pass North of us, just not very productive color me not inpressed.

    1. This is only to be a minor event anyway. And it’s basically the system’s warm front that does it. The track further north actually gives the Boston area a better shot at snow than if the low was going to pass to the south.

  10. What is Boston up to for snowfall this season?
    NY got 3.2 inches of snow yesterday and now are up to 5.5 inches of snow for the season.

    2. JJ well I sure don’t remember the 1940 one, but you are missing one. We had a pretty big event in Feb 64 or 65.
      It was from what Don Kent described as a “Walking Willie” moving SE out of Quebec. Yes Quebec, not Manitoba or Saskatchewan or Alberta, Quebec.

      Mr. Kent said it would pack a punch, but be quick and out of here fairly quickly. Well it started snowing and snowing and came down hard! We had school and were not released early.
      We got 14 inches in Millis where I was and the wind gusted to
      55 at Logan.

      Don Kent explained that a new low formed on the warm front down around long Island. Very memorable storm. Surprised it was not included!

  14. I want to ask for another clarification …..

    And this is for learning on my part, not to win any discussion.

    Is the Thursday night system a type of clipper, or a plains system?

    Because Taunton has named it a clipper and I believe I saw another met on here refer to it as a clipper.

    However, it is true that outside of crossing over Toronto, it really does originate in the Plains and is mostly over the US

    Thanks !

    1. I thought I saw some refer to it as a “clipper Like System” which covers exactly what you said. 🙂

      It is NOT a true clipper, but for the track as it approaches us it is “like” a clipper would.

      Does that make sense? 🙂

  16. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2024021412&fh=40&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Not a big thing, but the echos in southern New England and off the south coast look slightly more convective than the more stratiform looking stuff in northern New England.

    And remember the last time a strengthening cold front approached southern New England, which this feature is doing, we had that snow squall threat and they ended up with a thunderstorm down by Buzzards Bay vicinity ????

  17. I also watched the David-Eric sit down and thought they did a good job. I think it’s important to remember they didn’t have to do it at all.

  18. JPD … Regarding the next system.

    The term clipper originated from the Alberta clipper but it is kind of morphed into a term that sometimes refers to a smaller fast moving northern stream system…

    By definition no it is not really a true clipper but you’ll see it referred to as such. Even NWS is calling it that in their discussions but they are not using the term Alberta with it because it’s not coming from there. Does make it a little bit confusing for the casual weather viewer, I will admit.

    2. Thanks for posting this. I was never sure about the term, clipper. Also thanks for making sure the B’s got a point.

      1. They started a little sleepy.

        I think if they came out in the first with the intensity they had later, it’d have been a W and 2 pts.

  19. To: MrSpock

    Not sure you’ll see this but …

    I want to thank you for yesterday’s late afternoon posts. I am a weather enthusiast and hopelessly curious. While not understanding all of your post, I did learn new things; was reminded of old things forgotten; and it was all educational and helpful.

    Hope you post more often!

  22. Front page of today’s Boston Herald:

    STORM MIA : BLIZZARD A SOGGY BUST IN BOSTON

    Hmmm, I don’t recall the word “blizzard” being used by any Met, on air or in print. 😉

  24. Thanks TK.

    A blustery and cold morning here today but beautiful with the sunshine, blue skies, and deep snow cover. There was some blowing and drifting snow on the way into work this AM.

    Here are the final totals from the storm (list):

    https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=box&issuedby=BOX&product=PNS

    And a map of the totals:

    https://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.html?zoom=8&lat=42&lon=-71.82&hr=24

    Can clearly see the haves and have nots on that map.

      1. Really frustrating winter so far. It happens. Heck, last winter was a dud, too.

        Of course, there are FAR more important things in life to worry about. But looking forward to winter as much as I do and then getting served this %$*& here in Boston does get me down.

  25. Map of totals in CT, even a great variation in the totals across the state here. Ryan Hanrahan actually measured the storm jackpot (15.7″) at the NBC station in West Hartford…

    https://x.com/ryanhanrahan/status/1757770377130914013?s=20

    I’ll add Ryan did a good job with his forecast as noted by Bob Maxon in the tweet above. Didnt overreact to the models showing zero snow in northern Ct the night before the storm. Did cut the totals back but still kept them higher than most other forecasts.

    1. Somehow, the intensity of that band didn’t continue to translate eastward.

      Its obvious by the snow totals in eastern MA but its truly verified by total QPF.

      In that band, they rec’d .5 -.9 melted.

      Yet, Boston got .24 and Marshfield .35

      Further, CT’s NE wind was a land breeze, obviously an ocean breeze for us which probably added 1-3F initially extra warmth to overcome that the lighter precip simply could not do.

      In eastern areas that got .5 to .9 melted, they did ok. Falmouth and Sandwich got 6-8 inches, so the intensity did somewhat overcome that extra 1-3F.

      I guess as the storm intensified, the heavier QPF compacted because it certainly did not continue ENE from CT. It jumped south.

    2. Actually, the heavier snow amounts didn’t miss the Boston Area by all that much, but it was enough!

      I think the warning signals were there, but most mets
      are not about to jump when one single models suggests a different outcome.

      To me the combination of the 2/12 0z U

      https://ibb.co/WfxwkbXkmet and the 2/12 6Z euro told the story. 🙂

        1. Even that run which suggests much lower snow here, also projected much less snow in CT!!!!! But yet look what happened.

          This whole thing is simply IMPOSSIBLE!!!!!!!

    3. Thanks, Mark. I saw several tweets re Ryan. It wss refreshing to see positive comments. I believe I remember a post here that he was holding firm on his map.

  30. From time and date (google Boston sunrise and sunset), the sun is right now at 34.61 degrees above the horizon in Boston. On the solstice, it was 24.1 degrees for a gain of 10.5 degrees since the solstice.

  31. On the front side of the BPL there are 8 snowflakes where traditionally there were always Christmas wreaths. Why I have no idea. I hope it isn’t more “political/religious correctness” or whatever. But whenever I walk by, I always wonder if the 8 flakes represent the number that Boston will see the rest of the winter. Sigh.

    1. Philip, I don’t know of your intent wss to have me laughing out loud but it sure was the result. Very clever comment. Thank you.

      1. Choppy today. The wind is really gusty here. I could barely walk the shore. Only made it 2 miles. Current temp is just about 31 and I don’t think it’ll reach 32.

        I suspect I am looking at a single digit wind chill factor tomorrow AM. Overall high temps tomorrow should be up from today … I hope.

        Your temp right now?

        1. We are 31 also. But only some wind here. It is tough when windy at the shore. Especially walking into the wind. Can you walk to the beach or do you drive? I forget

  35. Glorious day today. We haven’t had nearly enough of these this winter. But I’ll take whatever the lord gives us.

  36. Philip, I’ve walked past the BPL and seen the snowflakes. While I’m fine with them now – as they do represent the 8 flakes we’ve pretty much seen this winter, as you said – I’m disappointed in the decision to not have Christmas wreaths in their place in December. I went in to the BPL a few weeks ago to ask. The person I spoke to wasn’t sure but “thought there had been a change in policy.”

  37. Yesterday morning, on air JR stated that the persistent rain in Boston was the result of “leftover” mild air from the day before.

    Of course it still doesn’t explain the southern suppression of the storm considering there was no cold high to our north.

  38. The Dutch have an idiomatic expression – well, it’s just one word – and it’s the verb “uitwaaien,” which literally means blowing out. When used in everyday parlance it means walking in the wind, usually on a beach. Dutch beaches are notoriously windy pretty much all the time.

  40. Philip, I don’t know the title of the person at the BPL. My guess is she was a reference librarian as I was at that desk.

  41. I bet Boston “doubles” their amount of snowfall tomorrow night from yesterday, assuming the precipitation doesn’t dry up before it gets this far south. Keep our fingers crossed JPD! 😉

  42. It looks like tonight’s clipper will pass a bit more north brining general 0.05-0.10 of QPF. I thought yesterday it might be a little further north than modeled. The models were bringing it a little too far south, picking up some ocean moisture and producing a bit too much liquid in Eastern MA and RI, particularly southerly areas. Today’s output seems reasonable and with good ratios a general 1-2” good forecast. Some areas south might only get a coating and some areas north could get 3” with just bit more QPF. Remember a few hundredths of 1 inch could be the difference between the difference between getting nice fluffy 1″ or a barely visible dusting.

    Meteorologist vitriol – I think a lot of the broader community get so much content from online sources, headlines, and hearsay. They conflate the online enthusiast and weather grifter types who publish weather content with a – meteorologist. So a good meteorologist who missed a forecast, gets lumped in with the same power tool in his mother’s basement who sees every weather event as historic and catastrophic.

    Joshua – I will be away headed to England March 12 to March 27. Then back again to England in June, which should wrap up my work there. Speaking of England and the ECMWF, I have so much respect for the meteorologists there and their lack of reliance on models. The fact is the weather there is so transient that it is near impossible for any model to sort out the timing and QPF amount details. They are excellent synoptic forecasters, using TK’s NME, who do great work at day 3 in, and then become increasingly general beyond.

    The forecasters and modeling people there are almost to a person unanimous that the worst thing that happened to the ECMWF was Hurricane Sandy. After ECMWF hit on that storm, a generation of forecasters became convinced it was a prophetic bible and there became pressure to make it all sorts of things it could not be. Essentially, they tried over 10 years to make it a 240 hour NAM. Higher resolution is not always better, and that is why the current project is to create downscaled precipitation, snowfall, and temperature output called EC Point.

    1. Thank you JMA.

      NOT at all suprised that it will track farther North. Not in the slightest and you did mention that yesterday. 🙂

    2. Thanks, JMA. Enjoy England

      Odd I was thinking of Sandy and how we followed that either yesterday or Monday. We finally had a pool on where it would actually land. I believe TK had it right. I am proud to say this very much amateur individual was close. Although knowing me, I picked the area because it had some significance to me

      A London story. Mac had knee surgery in London in his early 20s. The doctor messed up the surgery so mad had to remain in hospital. They put him in the woman’s ward. Every mom there had their daughters bringing meals to him

  44. This was my only concern with the pattern change to colder….that we might get unlucky and miss out on some snow opportunities, and that the pattern wouldnt have legs and would only end up lasting a few weeks.

    Some of the latest guidance has now all but eliminated the Greenland blocking and the idea of a stretched/weakened PV. AO is now projected to trend positive again as we get later in the month.

    This would open up the Pacific floodgates again and support milder weather as we head later in Feb into early March.

    Tomer Burg
    @burgwx
    18h

    There’s also been talk recently about how the extended range pattern looks far less wintry than initially modeled.

    I haven’t looked at this much, but over the last few days the Greenland block signal has all but completely disappeared from guidance.

    Tomer Burg
    @burgwx
    17h

    This is especially remarkable as subseasonal guidance — countless GEFS, EPS & CFS runs — have been very consistent for many runs with a strong Greenland block signal for much of mid-late February.

    But now that we’re within synoptic timescales, it essentially vanished.

        1. I am not going to lose sleep over it. In 10 days, it will probably be different again. The models are simply not that reliable at any time range right now!

  46. Thanks TK.

    Mark beat me to it, but there’s been some not so subtle changes in the longer range forecast. To be fair, we *have* experienced a significant pattern change to a colder one in the East, and there have been/will continue to be snow opportunities on the table the next 10 days, though right now things do not seem to want to line up for anything big.

    But several days ago, I alluded to a “pause” in the colder pattern late this month as the Pacific unloads on California once again. And now, the concern is that “pause” may be more of a full fledged pattern change of its own. Essentially, California can’t catch a break, and so long as the West Coast is being dumped on with endless rain and snow, it’s tough to make the same thing happen in the East.

    I’m not fully waving the white flag, but the pattern definitely looks less favorable for cold/snow in the Northeast beyond about 2/24. It could flip back, but there is not a lot of indication of things changing in the Pacific. And even if it does, by ~3/10 and beyond, the seasonal clock starts to tick…

    TLDR: My prediction of above normal seasonal snow for Boston is in serious jeopardy 😛

    2. Thank you, WxWatcher. My heart aches for California. Hard to complain about what we have here when we see what the alternative could be. Emphasis on the word could, but still

      Be safe. So nice to see a post from you as always

    3. Still holding firm on my 59″ seasonal snow prediction for Boston which will be realized following a Superstorm of 1993 repeat that stalls on approach and does a cyclonic loop around the Benchmark, burying Boston in 4.5 feet of snow.

    4. Figures. WHY am I not surprised. 🙂

      Let’s see how it all ends up.

      perhaps we get a 4 footer early in April. 🙂

  47. Technically, the high temp at Logan will go in the books as at least 33F from 6am this morning, but at least on the hour, it’s been 32F or less since 7am with a decent amount of mid Feb sun, that also had some bare ground in northern MA and not snow cover to work with.

    We may have had colder days but I was impressed with today’s cold airmass which I think was stronger than modeled a few days ago.

  48. Longshot I didn’t see anything in moderation, so not sure what happened with those comments earlier.

  49. Disturbance threats upcoming…

    Evening 15th to early morning 16th – minor.
    17th daytime – minor but if jogs north, borderline moderate.
    22nd – too soon to tell – but possibly a larger threat unless the PJ is still north.
    24th / 25th – TSTT, will monitor signal / pattern.
    End of month – interesting set-up for potential long duration event.

    I am on board with at least a quick warm-up after that. As WxW said, it could become more than just quick, but I also think we may enter a period of high volatility from the last week of February to the middle of March in which some of our bigger swings of the season may occur, and with that some of the more potent low pressure passages.

    CFS, which has been a good overall pattern guide, suggests this as a valid possibility.

  50. It was an idyllic day in my book. I treasure these. I feel alive when I’m outside. As Tom said, it really was a sub-freezing day.

    In terms of the outlook moving forward, I know next to nothing about models and interpretations of them. However, for the past 6 weeks or so I’ve been saying (warning) that the European mets (UK and Dutch ones I follow) have never been impressed by what the models were projecting (the mostly discounted the long-range, as you may have noticed when I sent clips of Met Office deep dives), not only for their area but also ours. They all said it would get colder here (and there, too, sort of, in places like Scotland) with a few snow chances, but that this would be quite temporary and that the overall theme this winter remained more or less the same in spite of the pattern change.

  52. “Top-10 least snowiest” for Boston is very much on the table. Another dud winter quite possible, if not likely. Not giving up, but at least pointing in that direction.

  54. Too many of us are experiencing health issues either with ourselves or with loved ones.
    Yesterday, my MIL had another stroke in the morning, so we had to drive up to Arlington (was heavy snow when we left North Providence).
    She received last rites in the afternoon.
    Today she is improved. She has immediate seating for a party of one in Heaven, but either she or God has the date confused.

    On the meteorology front, I experienced how delicate altitude is regarding snow or no snow. There was no snow on the ground as I entered route 2 east off 128/95. At that point, the road goes up a couple of hundred feet in altitude.
    Suddenly the ground was white. As I came down the hill around route 60 in Arlington, the ground suddenly became bare from there to the center of town. Fascinating!!

    1. Weatherbee. I’m so very sorry to hear this. She sounds like a very strong woman. I’m sending prayers for you and your mother in law. And an extra hug for you too.

      Route 2…..I know that road like the back of my hand. Might have done my share of racing on it,,,,I can’t remember 😉

    2. Best wishes!!

      Regarding the elevation, the storm itself was not generally regarded as an elevation event in the larger scale but you are absolutely right that on the local scale there was some of that where the precipitation was a little bit lighter with the marginal temperatures that were in place.

      There was a spot nearby to here that had bare ground at the bottom of the hill and a thick coating of snow at the top. Maybe just a couple hundred feet in elevation difference.

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