Monday August 12 2024 Forecast (6:58AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 12-16)

The large scale pattern this week will feature a westerly flow, around a broad trough, with a bit of cyclonic curvature to the air flow in the region. This will take 2 disturbances across the region when we have shower chances – one this afternoon and early evening, another late-day Thursday. Today’s threat features some cold enough air aloft that isolated thunder and small hail are small chances with a few of the showers that do develop. Additionally, late-day timing means a few rainbows can be spotted if you’re in the right place at the right time! Otherwise, it’s a fair and nice week with the absence of heat and high humidity. One additional note: Tonight / early Tuesday is the last of the 3 “best nights” to view the Perseid meteor shower, and the sky should clear out behind today’s disturbance by late evening to provide good viewing conditions. Best opportunity you can give yourself is to get away from city lights, after 10 p.m. until shortly before daybreak.

TODAY: Sunny morning. Partly sunny afternoon with late afternoon to early evening isolated to scattered showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Any heavier showers or storms could produce small hail. Highs 76-83. Dew point in 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 57-64. Dew point in 50s. Wind WNW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny morning. Partly cloudy afternoon. Highs 76-83. Dew point in 50s. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Shallow fog patches interior lower elevations. Lows 56-63. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82. Dew point rising to upper 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Shallow fog patches interior lower elevations. Lows 57-64. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers possible. Highs 77-84. Dew point rising to lower 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 77-84. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 17-21)

The weekend will feature higher but not oppressive humidity and as a trough and frontal system approach from the west we’ll look for an increase in the shower chance, but right now timing favors Sunday 8/18 over Saturday 8/17, which should stay rain-free. Higher humidity and a few shower / t-storm chances may carry into early next week. At the same time we should be monitoring an offshore tropical system, possibly a hurricane, but strongest indications right now are that system would be well offshore.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 22-26)

Heading into late month the pattern looks fairly quiet, seasonably warm, with a couple passing disturbances providing short-lived unsettled weather chances. No indications of prolonged significant hot weather.

55 thoughts on “Monday August 12 2024 Forecast (6:58AM)”

        1. Agreed.

          Truly unlucky timing in Bermuda. The only 10 days of the this summer they aren’t shielded by the Bermuda high. Signals even show it returning in the long range, but with it so far east this week, they are vulnerable.

      2. 36H 13/1800Z 16.5N 62.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
        48H 14/0600Z 17.9N 64.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
        60H 14/1800Z 19.4N 66.1W 55 KT 65 MPH

        St. Thomas about 18.20,-64.55

            3. I don’t recall the acronym but I am notoriously bad at acronyms. I do recall him saying that often. Nice memory. Thanks, Tom

              Hope you are feeling much better today

              1. Thanks Vicki, very much on the upswing.

                Paxlovid, it worked for my wife in the past and it worked for me. Wow !!

  13. Could definitely see the next disturbance moving thru early last evening.

    Most of our winds briefly turned S and SW and some showers went thru northern New England.

    I only bring this up because it’s really invigorating this morning behind that disturbance.

    And another today, I guess …..

  14. https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/can/GEOCOLOR/20242251310_GOES16-ABI-can-GEOCOLOR-9000×4500.jpg

    A thinner more spread out plume of smoke is getting a little closer.

    But there’s a thick plume from Hudson Bay westward to great bear lake. Insane release of smoke last 3+ days.

    I find this pattern strange …. in August.

    Most of north-central Canada is really really really warm and dry and sunny under an omega block.

    Underneath it, the jet is suppressed far to the south across the US compared to its avg August position.

    This is a guess, but it’s a jet seemingly more found in late Spring.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh_nb&rh=2024081200&fh=9&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850t_anom&rh=2024081200&fh=9&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

    2. Also, take note…

      This is TFA from Maine, not TOFA from NH.
      Both are equally non useful for weather but excellent for astronomical info. 🙂

  16. Thank you, TK.

    Really hoping for a good Saturday. Each grandchild has chosen a gnome or fairie and we are planning to create some fun in the garden we have for Mac here. The bunnies eat the flowers so we gave up on planting. And if all goes well, the entire family will be together.

    1. They could make a more believable call if the forecast was made in November, but that’s not happening. 😉

  26. we are expecting a moderate to strong tropical storm right on top of us here on St. Thomas but also rain is a major concern. No matter what we probably lose power.

  27. London’s heat doesn’t feel anything like Boston’s. The difference is the dewpoint. It’s just never as high as in Boston AND even when elevated, say, in the low 60s, dew points never remain at that level for more than a day or 2. In addition, even on days in which it reaches 90F (quite rare) the temps at night drop to 60F. You just don’t have tropical nights with temps in the 70s.

    1. Latitude, ocean temps, and lack of a more direct air flow from subtropical regions would be the factor. Location, location, location.

      To be honest, Boston doesn’t have that many nights with lows in the 70s either. Pretty much during the heart of summer in a warm pattern (we had a lot of Bermuda high until recently).

      Also, I’ve mentioned a re-positioned instrument package at Boston as a factor, and that certainly IS a notable factor in the recent warmer low temps at the airport, along with higher dew points. These facts are often ignored by media, but they’re facts, and they still exist whether people mention them or not. I mention them, as you know my aim is to include all information, not just cherry-picked stuff. 🙂

      Science aims to explain things by making observations, and that should be observations of all things that impact what you’re studying. 🙂

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