DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 19-23)
Early morning warning! If you are about to step outside and it’s before 9:00 a.m., watch for patches of black ice where moisture from yesterday’s rain and overnight fog has frozen on some surfaces as the sky cleared and temperature fell to freezing or below in many locations. This will improve quickly as the sun rises and the temperature heads back above freezing on the journey to today’s relatively mild high temperatures (upper 30s to lower 40s). Any remaining fog patches dissipate early as well, and we’ll have sunshine for a while, but mid and high level clouds will quickly be on the increase later this morning, leading to an overcast afternoon, capping the temperature rise as we cut off the solar heating and also start to feel the arrival of a colder air mass from west to east across the region, albeit slowly at first. At the same time, a wave of low pressure currently in the US Southeast will be on a quick northeastward journey and will be passing off our coast tonight and first thing Monday morning, while intensifying. This low pressure system will bring a quick-hitting but significant snow event to most of the region. Milder air in place at the onset means that it starts as rain for a good portion of southeastern MA and RI to southeastern CT (basically the MA South Shore to the New England South Coast), before the cold air flips those areas to snow. This also means those areas will have lower snow totals, as discussed on the previous blog post. Elsewhere, a general moderate snowfall is likely, with several inches in the range of accumulations. The system exits early Monday, and other than an potential snow shower ushering in arctic air, look for dry and much colder weather Monday through Thursday. A storm system will pass not too far offshore Wednesday, but as for its snow shield, that will likely be a near-miss for the South Coast / Cape Cod region outside of a potential band of ocean effect snow showers reaching Outer Cape Cod as a result of the storm’s circulation. The core of the cold will be exiting by Thursday afternoon.
TODAY: Sun followed by clouds morning-midday. Overcast remainder of day with end-of-day snow (NW) and rain (SE) arriving. Highs 36-43. Wind W under 10 MPH shifting to N.
TONIGHT: Overcast with snow, except rain changing to snow southeastern areas, then snow tapering off just before sunrise. Expected snow accumulation – coating to 1 inch Nantucket and Outer Cape Cod, 1 to 2 inches Martha’s Vineyard and Lower Cape Cod, 2 to 4 inches near the Cape Cod Canal and South Coast region, 4 to 8 inches elsewhere, with isolated pockets of 8-10 inches possible mainly west of the I-95 belt. Lows 17-24 except 24-31 far southeastern areas. Wind N 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts eastern areas.
MONDAY (MLK JR DAY): Sun/cloud mix. Slight chance of passing snow showers in the afternoon. Highs 25-32 early, then falling through 20s. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 3-10. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 2-9. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Sun and high clouds. A band of lower clouds and snow shower possible Outer Cape Cod. Highs 15-22. Wind N 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod / Nantucket.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 2-9. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 24-28)
Snow potentials (favoring southeastern areas) in the January 24-25 window, and another potential January 27. Temperatures near to below normal.
DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 29 – FEBRUARY 2)
One or two additional opportunities for snow in a continued near to below normal temperature pattern to end January / start February.
Thanks TK! The black ice is no joke this morning
Agreed. I almost wiped out taking out my dog this morning.
Thanks TK !
I’m hoping for a snowy game in Buffalo tonight. I read Buffalo NWS discussion but I’m not familiar with how any lake effect bands set up with respect to where the stadium is.
Also, wonder if the 3pm Philly game has rain, rain to snow or gets in before precip arrives ?
Thanks TK.
Thanks TK.
Thanks TK
Tom Winter Storm Warning for Philadelphia. 4-6 inches expected from what I just read. Second half of the game the snow could really be coming down. It may start as some rain. The last time I remember a snow game in Philadelphia was when the Eagles played the Lions. I believe this was just over ten years ago.
Thanks JJ, that should be fun to watch.
Don’t mention the Lions. I wanted to see them win it ALL. 🙁
I see snow for the Philadelphia game at 3 PM today. But I’ll let TK weigh in on timing of flip down there.
I’ll take either team, just happy to be in a Championship game so quickly.
Thanks TK, I see a general 4-8 storm everywhere north of the SE Coast of NE Cape. Someone mentioned this, much easier to snow going into colder pattern especially here at the coast. Going cold into warm always seems to kill us near the coast.
I have mentioned it – easier to snow coming out of “warm”. This was taught to me (and SAK) and several of our colleagues by the great Peter Leavitt who was one of the all time greatest forecasters from the old school days. He had the original weather-related MA vanity plate: WX. 🙂
Thanks TK!
Your snowfall forecast in terms of location is MUCH clearer today! ❄️ 🙂
Will Boston see its first 6-inch snowfall in 1000+ days? I long since stopped counting the exact number.
Philip before the season started I had the Lions going to the Super Bowl. Give the Commanders credit the Lions could not stop them. I am thinking as a Cowboys fan I got to face this team twice a year when before Jayden Daniels arrival those were two easy wins. Not the case anymore.
Your Cowboys have a lot of work to do, much like the Patriots. Didn’t their coach get fired as well?
Philip Cowboys did not give Mike McCarthy a new contract. His contract expired at the end of the season so they parted ways.
No he’s a great QB and reminds me of Lamar . But I am really disappointed Detroit & KC won yesterday . I’m hoping for a better turnaround today with a Buffalo win tonight ( I hope )
As of Wednesday January 29, it will be exactly 1,095 days since Boston received 24”+ of snowfall. Expect many, many more days to follow, if not years.❄️
I hope my math is correct. 😉
Well, let’s be realistic about that stat. How many 24+ inch snowstorms has Boston had since records began? 🙂
I have no idea but I bet you’ll tell us. 😉
Is it a single or double digit number?
January 26-27 2015: 24.4
February 8-9 2013: 24.9
March 31-April 1 1997: 25.4
February 6-7 1978: 27.1
February 17-18 2003: 27.6
Honorable mention
January 29 2022: 23.6 (most snow in one calendar day, also tied with February 17 2003)
How much did logan miss by on the other 2015 big snow? here in jp , we had 2 24+ snows in 2015.
See list below…
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2025011912&fh=17&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=850wh&rh=2025011912&fh=17&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Noticing light precip lingers a bit behind the departing low and in this case, I think it could happen because at 850 mb, a light onshore flow lingers behind the system for a bit.
fine by me. thanks
Good morning and thank you Tk
Not a fan of the 4-8 inch range on snow maps. Not precise enough.
Nws has 6-8 inches on their snow map. Much more precise range, imho. but has 4-8:on their wsw.
Looking at the latest models, most have only 4 or 5 inches kuchera. gfs is the outlier at 7 or 8.
I am concerned that this may end up just as an advisory event and not a warning event. Will see what the rest of the 12z suit shows.
whichever it is, will be nice to see.
4-8 works fine when across that area it can range, literally, from 4 to 8. We can’t always narrow an entire region down to 2 inches. You’ve seen this in large variations over short distances. So 4-8 is absolutely acceptable. I’m guessing you don’t like that I used it today. 😉
A couple winters ago we had a storm where the snowfall ranged over one foot over just 10 miles … good luck forcing us into small ranges with that kind of stuff. We are doing just fine. 🙂
That’s fine, doesn’t mean I have to like it.
I understand that there are times where you just can’t pin it down, but You can’t stop me from not liking that kind of wide range. I never have liked it and I never will. 🙂 🙂 🙂
Both the 4-8 and the 6-12 drive me up the wall.
Btw, with this event that range will verify if 4 inches fall
or if 8 inches falls and anything in between. AND highly likely it will verify, perhaps on the low end. We shall see.
Dave, these are by calendar day, every snowfall for 2014-2015 at Logan, but you can still get the idea that the only storm that came close to 2 feet was the first of the four biggies…
Nov. 27: 0.3″
Nov. 28: 2.3″
Dec. 6: 0.3″
Jan. 3: 1.4″
Jan. 6: 0.2″
Jan. 9: 0.2″
Jan. 15: 0.8″
Jan 24: 5.1″
Jan. 26: 2.3″
Jan. 27: 22.1″
Jan. 28: 0.2″
Jan. 30: 0.7″
Jan. 31: 1.3″
Feb. 2: 16.2″
Feb. 5: 0.8″
Feb. 7: 0.9″
Feb. 8: 7.4″
Feb. 9: 14.0″
Feb. 10: 1.5″
Feb. 11: 0.5″
Feb. 12: 1.0″
Feb. 14: 3.2″
Feb. 15: 13.0″
Feb. 17: 0.6″
Feb. 19: 2.4″
Feb. 21: 1.1″
Feb. 22: 0.1″
Feb. 25: 1.9″
Feb. 26: 0.2″
Mar. 1: 1.9″
Mar. 2: 0.2″
Mar. 3: 1.6″
Mar. 15: 2.9″
Mar. 20: 0.5″
Mar. 21: 1.2″
TOTAL: 110.3″
Thank you TK.
Came to bottom of driveway and car would not stop. Slid right out onto our main street … fortunately it was very early and no cars around.
Walked the shore and it was all people could do to make sure they didn’t fall. Some were wearing micro-spikes, usually reserved for hiking / climbing. I thought it was funny until I started walking. All of a sudden it became lots less funny. Didn’t fall but came close.
Glad there were no cars coming, Longshot !!
Oh my. So glad no cars were coming.
Snowfall Forecasts from around the dial:
https://ibb.co/825dVVg
NWS snow map
https://www.weather.gov/images/box/winter/StormTotalSnow.jpg
I posted the same below. You beat me to the punch.
I was 4 minutes faster lol
🙂
Indeed you were! 🙂
Tk fox 25 has Marshfield in the 3-6 zone . What are your thoughts on that and higher vs lower it looks like that zone Went from Boston down through here . I know I’ve asked you this & got your answer but could the rain hold on much longer from Boston to the cape giving us little snow . Thank you and go Bills !!
No, this is not going to turn into a mostly rain event for your area, and their range is acceptable based on my forecast.
Ok thank you
NWS map has me (north shore) at 4-6.” Seems right though I often get a tad more than forecasted.
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter
Click on map to enlarge.
13Z RAP kuchera snow
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025011913&fh=21&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
12Z HRRR kuchera snow
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025011912&fh=35&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
12Z NAM Kucerha Snow
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025011912&fh=35&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
3KM NAM Kuchera Snow
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025011912&fh=35&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
These all suggest 4 or 5 inches, perhaps 4-6 inches.
Will this really be a warning event????
I guess it will come down to now casting and watching the snow rates as it occurs. Anything can happen with a deepening system as it passes by us. Do the models currently have it correct??????
Fascinating……
To your point, the amounts on those models have come down some since yesterday, bringing most of the area below warning criteria (and below the significant threshold)
Indeed. I don’t think this is a warning level event, unless something changes in a hurry.
Snowfall TYPE maps/times. Interesting; https://x.com/kellyannwx/status/1880968224113873261
(Actual snowfall maps a few posts above)
My thoughts on tonight’s storm:
https://stormhq.blog/2025/01/19/sunday-night-snowstorm-on-the-way/
This snow will be sticking around for the week with those cold temperatures on the way.
All the snow maps look reasonably sound.
And yet, it’s highly likely the placement of a heavier band of snow and/or the placement of a lighter than expected area of snow will cause a few areas to exceed or underperform these ranges.
They look TOO HIGH to me, but I’m just whistling in the wind. 🙂
So it sounds like you’re saying we could get less than expected, or that the maps are sound and we’ll get what’s predicted, or we will over perform. Every possible option if you think about it lol
I like this met on fox 25 as she specifically mentions towns .3-6 all the way from Boston through the south shore
Pete does that too.
A couple of things on this day in weather history
Cold Friday of 1810
1961 Kennedy Inaugural Snowstorm
1978 Snowstorm which was poorly forecasted.
https://x.com/NWSBoston/status/1880948321700978952
Thank you JimmyJames. I remember these.
https://radar.weather.gov/region/northeast/standard
Lift off.
Must watch tv if you love snow games this afternoon between the Rams and Eagles.
Drought Monitor. Data from this past Tuesday.
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?MA
12Z RDPS Kuchera Snow
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025011912&fh=36&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
12Z ICON Kuchera Snow
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025011912&fh=30&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Ok, this is a bunch of models and enough to give me pause.
This is really looking like a 4 or 5 inch routine run of the mill
snowfall. Nothing special.
And to add insult to injury, the 6Z EURO introduces RAIN
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2025011906/ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_6.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2025011906/ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_7.png
I just can’t get excited about this event.
At least will have snow on the ground and it will look like winter.
Yes, that it will and it isn’t going anywhere for some time. 🙂
The thing that needs to be kept in mind is the amount of variability across relatively short distances that are possible in almost every single type of event we can get.
But there is still a large issue that the general population has, called the backyard syndrome, or backyard bias. I’m not going to repeat again what that is because I’ve done it countless times and you all know it here. It’s rampant on social media.
Let me put it this way, right now, I wouldn’t change anything that is posted by NWS.
I also wouldn’t chop down the entire event based on exact numbers from short range guidance. There is a heavy aspect of meteorology involved in this that goes far beyond model output.
To your excellent point, I will repeat. We can be and often are 2-3 inches below Sutton center. We have instances of frozen precipitation in the center area and rain here. That area is five miles as the crow flies from here. I’m not sure how ranges can be narrowed. I look at the numbers as a guide only
On that note, my neighbor just moved his snow blower out of the garage.
I got bright sunshine right now. Waiting for that snow sky and snow feel and then the snow starting to fall.
This particular cloud-up will not be the classic cirrostratus to altostratus.
We are still right on the border of the mild air and the colder air, and there is a deck of mid level clouds that is kind of preceding everything. But these mid level clouds are not the classic snow sky altostratus. It is likely somewhat broken and cellular in nature, kind of a hybrid altocumulus.
The conditions are great right now. I’m moving firewood around without a coat or jacket.
My son is in CA for work at Stanford medical center. It’s currently two degrees warmer here than there. Of course, it’s three hours earlier there.
This is exactly how I envisioned this morning-midday would go. Sun, relatively mild, not much wind at all.
My son and I are about to head outside for a 3 hour project which we remove outdoor holiday decorations, lights, and electric cords. The snow cover has vacated and while the ground is technically “wet” it’s not sopping or smushy. A pair of boots, medium jacket, hat, gloves and we’re good to go!
Like JJ likes to clean his leaves up before it snows, I like to take advantage of a window of opportunity to get these outdoor decorations down before we get our next snowcover. We’re going to beat that by just a few hours. 🙂
Hope it goes smoothly.
It’s almost as if you’re able to predict the future weather 🙂
Almost……
Now the GFS
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025011912&fh=24&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Pretty much DOUBLE the other models??????????
Or almost double. 🙂
Common characteristic of this piece of guidance since the update of 2 years ago.
Not to look beyond this system, but a quick glance at some 12z medium range stuff & the pattern tells me the Friday/Saturday threat is highest for southeastern MA and RI.
GDPS snow
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025011912&fh=30&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
I was curious.
QPF wise, the models that have 3-5 inches do still put down .4-.6 melted.
So, I’m guessing the profile of the entire column is not so cold as to feature high snow ratios.
If the models are slightly too mild in the column, then that amount of QPF that even they simulate should translate to snow projections closer to the GF uselesS.
Depends on where, and it changes thru the event too…
See Tim Kelley’s post.
Where can I find his posts as I am searching with no luck
I’ll see if I can dig it up later as I am already outside working on a project.
But the basic idea is something I have already said here several times leading up to this event and something that has not changed.
Starts as wet snow ( rain for some of the region before it flips over to wet snow). It will be a progressively drier snow deeper into the event from northwest to southeast.
Thank you, TK. Great discussion.
Our system taking shape.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif
UKMET 10:1 snow
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmo_global&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2025011912&fh=24&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Thanks TK
Looks like my winter storm “watchless” streak continues at Day 933 since I moved to south coast from Minneapolis (where a low is forecast for -16f Tuesday am). Winter weather advisory here in South Dartmouth. I am hopeful the one of these future storms will lead to the Golden Shovel award here for the South Coast
Clouds are moving in here.
NWS radar.
https://radar.weather.gov/station/KBOX/standard
Mike Masco
THE MOST SNOW IN 130 YEARS POSSIBLE IN LOUISIANA THIS WK!!!
The last time #NewOrleans saw 1” of snow was back in 1963.. THIS much snow across the state goes back well before that! To say this event is significant is an understatement.. do they even have salt and plow trucks along the I-10 corridor?? .. my guess is not!
https://x.com/mikemasco/status/1880707627983786426?s=61
Serious amount of snow for them!
Sure could be and as Mr Masco said…they are not prepared
12Z EURO 10:1 snow
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2025011912&fh=30&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
45 at Logan, a little milder than expected. Hopefully, that
starts to drop soon.
dp 32
44 here. 🙂
850 mb and 925 mb temps are sufficiently below freezing,so
even if it starts as rain, it should flip to snow quite quickly.
This mild air is basically at the surface only.
It is COLD to our N&W. Currently only19 at Burlington, VT.
This cold WILL be draining into this system. Just a matter of time.
I don’t know how much trust we can place in the HRRR, but
I get less and less impressed with each successive run of that model.
Here is the 16Z run Kuchera Snow
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025011916&fh=18&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
16Z RAP
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025011916&fh=21&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
From my neophyte level, it looks like the models today are pointing to more 3-5 inches than some higher totals mentioned. Are they expected to bounce back or being ignored for some reason?
#MeteorologyNotModelology.
Also, my general 4 to 8 inch forecast contains 2/3 of the 3 to 5 range. 🙂
Thanks. Just hard to get the inches measure out of my head after so many years.
HMM both 18Z NAM dropped the snow amounts even more…..
Interesting and can it be ignored?
This is probably a good time to remind everybody that the difference between 4 inches and 6 inches of snow is about 0.2 inch melted.
It’s really not that big a deal how many inches fall. It’s about the CONDITIONS.
Also, ranges like 4-8 inches are NOT cop outs. Nice try, Chuck. It’s so fun looking at you on the other side of the window sometimes. You put yourself there buddy. 😉
And now, back to the weather, and doing it the right way. 🙂
I am at 47F.
Do the model snow numbers generally have fluff factor calculated in?
Yes. But you have to look at the correct parameters, not 10:1.
That 24th system.
Interesting from this far out, because there’s some southern stream moisture, but there’s definitely a northern stream piece of energy that’s trying to bend the flow back on the east coast.
And I’m sure that energy is in a well sampled place.
Without that good sampling yet, it does seem to be creeping a little closer.
It’s a watcher in 48-60 hrs to see if there are more model changes once that energy comes into better sampling.
And I’m sure that energy is NOT in a well sampled place.
Long way to go, but that one is a significant snow threat (as far as I can tell this far out) for southeastern New England. Also, another one comes along about one week from today (Jan 26).
Joe B tweeted ( I am paraphrasing)that after these next 2 weeks winters goes away for a while. Them comes back late winter . Tk do you agree with this ?
After this event, Boston will be about 1/2 way to their monthly average snowfall for January, with 3 legit chances to reach it (~January 24, ~January 26-27, ~January 30-31).
We just dropped from 43 to 42
Please note this may NOT be true.
Is it a rumor that Allen Media Group is eliminating all local Mets and defaulting to the weather channel for coverage?
From James Spann. I noticed our friend Emily’s comment.
https://ibb.co/98FMVcy
Didn’t see her comment.
Ahhh the sweet sound of folks trying (and failing) to start their snowblowers after 2 years in storage
My blower starts right up . I put sea foam into my mix and it’s never let me down .
Mine took some coaxing but finally got it going. Had a full tune up 2 seasons ago but wasn’t used at all last year
Put the sea foam in your gas cans every time you fill .
Thanks for the tip!
My snow blower is ready to go. I’ve been doing deep breathing exercises. 🙂
TT is back for any users , I don’t have it .
Not sure how that happened.
Wife said trump
It just started snowing where I am.
New NWS map is closer to what I expect.
They pushed somewhat higher snow totals further southeast in MA (Plymouth County) and trimmed back the highest totals to a smaller area. This now fits the 4-8 (most of the region), less to the southeast.
Game about to kick off in Philly – should be a snowy second half.
So confused so south shore higher amounts or less ?? Still 3-6 here on lower end
Yes Charlie, I’m posting this for you. I know you’re glad you still get mentioned. You’re a “legend”. And you know it’s a lie that you’d rather be blocked from posting. You earned that block after MULTIPLE chances.
But I mentioned you for another reasons. You have now said that when 3 bloggers see my comment, they’ll text you. It’s not like I didn’t know you were in communication with some people, because you’ve mentioned some of them in previously blocked comments, but now you’ve basically admitted it again. Thanks. That was even easier than I thought it would be. 🙂
Enjoy the rest of the winter! 😉
🙂
Intesting that both the 18Z NAMS have lowered their snow amounts.
3KM
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025011918&fh=33&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_acc-imp&m=nam4km
12KM
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025011918&fh=33&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Can these be ignored?
Down to 41 at the airport.
Still 43 here, but with a noticeable ENE to NE wind.
Anyone other than JJ reporting any precipitation in the WHW area?
On radar it looks like it is ready to start here in the city and if so, it clearly would be rain.
https://radar.weather.gov/station/KBOX/standard
To our SouthWest
https://radar.weather.gov/station/KOKX/standard
I’ve seen this movie before. I have a feeling many of us will be complaining about rain holding on way too long cutting down on snow totals. Radar already looks that way. Still holding at 42 degrees here SW of Boston
Shhhh
Just remember, it is plenty cold enough just above us.
It shouldn’t rain too long, but we shall see. I’d be more concerned about the fall off in snow totals from MOST of the models. IS it real?
Si it real? Maybe should read IF it is real.
I’ve seen a lot of movies before and I’ll let it go at that.
I mentioned this to Tk since yesterday & today & he assured me that will not be the case . I have been saying I had a bad feeling all weekend but I need to trust above .
Here’s and honest question.
What are the Mets seeing that ALL of the models are now missing? I am serious. Most curious. Do the mets expect more
lift and Frontogenesis than the models are depicting?
There’s a coastal front. It was expected.
Everything on track – start time / rain vs. mix vs. snow.
I do like the lower half of my 4-8 range for the majority of its area. Everything else remains the same as this morning’s discussion, so from my perspective there is currently nothing else to add.
This is right around the time that people see raindrops (that were expected) and panic. 🙂
I fully expect some rain drops at the outset. 🙂
Down to 41 here now.
Also a reminder. When I (or other meteorologists) give a range for snow accumulations, PLEASE stop focusing on the top number. Focus on the RANGE.
These should be automatic now.
You know what’s really annoying? Me: “Expect 3 to 6 inches.” Storm occurs, person gets 3 inches. Person (to me): “I thought you said we were getting 6 inches!” Me: ** FACEPALM **
News alert from channel 5 lowering snow numbers because temps warmer
That shouldn’t do it. Loweing because QPF will be lower.
Link??
To Wcvb lowering numbers because of warm air. And this is why I really like links.
“ Warmer temps slightly lower snow totals”
Wcvb has the highest numbers to begin with. They just came down closer to what other stations are predicting and close to a duplicate of Pete.
Importantly, as TK has said multiple times, numbers will be tweaked slightly.
https://www.wcvb.com/article/warmer-temps-slightly-lower-snow-totals-jan-19-2025/63475010
Seeing snowflakes at the NFL game now.
The announcer said hard snow but not sleet. I’m
Paraphrasing so not a direct quote and can’t link the tv.
Temp is down 6 degrees from today’s high.
Down to 39 at Logan. It is just under 41 here and falling as was expected. Shouldn’t take too much precip to get the rain to flip to snow. On Radar, it Looks like it should be precipitating here, but NOPE. Still DRY.
1-2 inches per hour???? I DON’T THINK SO!
https://www.wcvb.com/article/snow-to-fall-at-1-2-inches-per-hour-beginning-at-8-p-m-jan-19-2025/63474113
If it becomes 1 inch per hour, it won’t be for long.
Not a snowballs chance in hell of 2 inches per hour.
That is why Wcvb lowered SLIGHTLY. They were higher than others to begin with.
The precip SW of us is still pretty blotchy
https://radar.weather.gov/station/KOKX/standard
I’m figuring a 5-6 PM start time for me.
We are still at 39. But did just drop two degrees
Screen shot of my Radar Scope precipitation depiction. Rain/snow line pretty far N&W/ Not sure how accurate this is
https://ibb.co/GWxMFdY
Mine too but snow flakes in the Springfield area where it is snowing rain. IF I am reading correctly
https://ibb.co/SmN4MrD
It’s starting to snow here in Holden.
Temp is 36
Is Charlie around? Really??
It has started raining here in Sharon, 42.
I understand your frustration. The lower number of the lower half of the range puts a single point estimate at 4. My plow guy only comes for around 3. Maybe I should get some fresh gas just to be safe. Thanks
I understand your frustration. The lower number of the lower half of the range puts a single point estimate at 4. My plow guy only comes for around 3. Maybe I should get some fresh gas just to be safe. Thanks
I really think a lot of people still don’t understand what goes into forecasting snowfall amounts as close as possible.
The meteorology behind this is so complex, and understanding it is a very difficult undertaking. And understanding the meteorology is important, so much more important than just looking at automated output.
Meanwhile, the internet is populated with fakers that end up looking really bad and somehow deflecting the blame to us (us, meaning myself, SAK, JMA, WxW). We work really hard to get where we get, and we’re taken for granted by a lot of people out there. I’m fortunate that people here actually understand this.
This is the only site or TV station I go to for accurate weather forecasts, many thanks!
Me too! And I imagine there are many other often silent but supportive and deeply appreciative consumers of not only the forecasts presented here but also the information/explanations regarding “why.” As always thanks so much for what you do!
Snow started here in Lunenburg at 4:00. The temperature is 33.
Sorry for the duplication.
Some rain drops here and there, but basically nothing.
Temp 41
MOST of the precip is traversing SW to NE NORTH of my area!!!
Just ducky!!!!
https://radar.weather.gov/station/KBOX/standard
Just dropped to 40 here, but likely 40.4 or close to it. 🙂
That’s pretty good during the warmer part of the event.
Kinda like the Canadian was showing? Western outlier but verifying?
The Canadian had solid precipitation and was further NW with rain.
Here’s Tim Kelly’s youtube forecast: https://youtu.be/N2XYlxA7z0Q?si=
Mark Rosenthal’s: https://youtu.be/OxYG_G8CVQE (I don’t know why he marks it as for kids. It hurts him in the algorithm and disables comments.)
The Noyes’ 1degree outside forecast: https://youtu.be/2HV73EfCy68?si=SSg-
It’s interesting to see so many former tv mets having their own weather things online.
I was thimkng the same and wondered red if it has anything to do with maybe advance hints of my post above.
Looks like the Keene / Monadnock area in New Hampshire is getting hammered. Figures.
They are expected to get more.
Nws temps around Ma. We are now at 37.
https://ibb.co/KmkQcVJ
Surprised it’s raining in Amesbury. Didn’t expect it.
In Weymouth & just left Holbrook no rain & mild
Rain now Weymouth
Taking a break to cook mom’s dinner, then have mine.
I’ve had a moderate migraine for 24 hours. So need to take eyes off screen and maps for a bit.
Feel better. Hugs to mom. Thank you for All you do
Thank you for all you do . The weather forecast can always wait . Be well
Take care of yourself, TK. Thanks for all you do to make the site so terrific.
rain mixing with snow here at 40 degrees.
A few big flakes mixing in here.
me thinks I was mistaken. i think it was just some bigger rain drops. looks like all rain, but getting ready, I think.
39.7 here and still raining, but temp is now dropping faster.
Flipped to snow in Natick
All snow here with a dusting already. Temp 34
Some sticking on the road. It’s a side road not heavily travelled. I’m a bit surprised it started sticking on the wet road this quickly.
Snowing coming down at a good clip here. Picked up just after the sunset.
Maps have told me it’s been snowing in Amesbury for an hour. Can confirm, 38 degrees and all rain still. Waiting on the change.
Same here in Sharon. Radar says snow, wunderground says snow, but my hand out the window says rain. This system is flying too.
I never had any rain where I am.
Speaking of snow I enjoyed watching the snow game between the Rams and Eagles.
Moderate snow in Woburn. 0.5 so far.
Moderate rain at 39 in pembroke. I think this is over around 1am I heard , that’s 6 hours to do what it’s going to do in different areas .
About 3 a.m. for you
Daughter in Uxbridge who is 5 miles south of here is still rain
Temp has dropped quickly, 36 here now. One thing I noticed today was how quickly the ground thawed with just a couple days in the 40s.
We are 32. Five miles in Uxbridge is 37. Ya gotta feel for anyone trying to put a forecast out. Yet we are blessed with the best of the best with TK and our local meteorologists.
Wankum has me in the 3-6 just now . I don’t know , I really don’t but again trust above . This is not hanging out all night it’s a fast storm
38 here and STILL RAIN. It’s Been raining for 2 hours now. did NOT expect that. SURE I expected some rain at the outset, but I honestly expected it to flip within an hour or so. I am LOSING patience! This is PISSING me off! Now, ask me how I feel. 🙂 🙂 🙂
Now 37 and steadily dropping…
Wind is NE, so It “should” flip really soon. I say “should”
23Z HRRR and RAP both just ticked up to 6+ inches kuchera for the event, even with the rain. So we’ll see.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025011923&fh=11&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025011923&fh=12&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Well the RAP was 6+ and the HRRR was 5+ Close enough. 🙂
Higher than they were showing ALL afternoon long.
BINGO!!!! and just like that it is now ALL SNOW here in JP!!!!
Now 36 and still falling!!!!
Needed that wind to turn MORE towards the North. That did the trick. OCEAN influence on the boundary layer for sure!!!!
Now we’re good, at least until we get a lull in precip.
now 35 and dropping.
Thanks TK. Far as I can tell, your forecast looks right on track. It’s a fast mover, but many hours of moderate to locally heavy snow to go. It’s solid snow well back into the mid-Atlantic at this hour. 4-8” amounts will be very common pretty much everywhere in SNE besides far southeast MA.
Thanks WxWatcher, took 2+ hours to flip here in JP.
Yes, everything appears on track. Thanks!
Heavy rain in South Dartmouth along Buzzards Bay – between last night and now this we may have close to an inch of water – still 38 here
It’s a bit of a misconception that storm duration correlates well to higher amounts. Endless hours of light snow really do nothing for you. Most moderate to major storms do most of their damage in a 6-8 hour window where snow is accumulating 1-2”/hr, and this one will be no different. Of course, the true “biggies” are able to combine the intensity and duration aspects. It won’t be breaking any records (unless the daily records for today happen to be very low), but this is pretty much as classic an SNE snowstorm as you can get.
Down to 34 and switched. Again. Not worried about the rain we make up for with just enough intensity. Track is really good for eastern sections.
Keep hearing about the intensity. Where it’s snowing, what are the rates?
It was never really kicking off until after 8 PM
Snow heavier now
I rephrase. Wind picked up and puking snow now
Thanks Vicki! Good to know that where it’s snowing it’s snowing hard. It’s still raining here but very lightly.
Really odd temps in close areas
Fluff factor always causes havoc with snow numbers.
1.5 so far… Woburn
More than here I think but I have not measured
Beverly, Logan and Norwood all now have NNW winds.
Chill headed southeastward
Switched here in North Attleboro to snow.
.75 here
Still all rain at 36
10 pm ish for us then good snow til 2am and light snow til 3-4 am.
Going to fall in TK’s ranges down here.
What’s good snow Tom ,l
Steady to moderate snow that accumulates about .5 to .75 inches per hour.
You do that 4-5 hrs and then get another 1/2 in – 1 inch then 2 and 4 am and there’ll be 3-5 inches on the ground come sunrise.
I’m not arguing with a math teacher
Not sure what the issue is. This thing is doing what was expected.
Snow in Essex!!!
Just flipped here. It’s an all out blitz!
That must be what we had. Much gentler now.
I just measured 1.5″ here.
Around 6:30 we were hit hard by a free-ranging Charlie hole:
https://ibb.co/x6n9gN4
🙂
32F at Logan and the Braintree ob at the Braintree split just went from 37F to 33F
1.25 and snowing harder as of a few minutes ago
What a great game ongoing btwn the Ravens and the Bills.
Agree. I’m really enjoying it.
I say take the 3.
Glad they listened 🙂 😉 😉 🙂
Me too ! I was very worried they weren’t going to.
Likewise!
Thanks, TK.
I definitely think Buffalo can beat KC and they already have this year . Oh to see that look on Patrick’s face would be priceless.
1.75 with solid moderate snow
Shhhhhhhh please don’t tell my grandson I’m hoping the bills over the chiefs.
They have a very , very good chance
What an ending.
BUFFALO!!!!!
Mixing with snow.
Yay!!!
Now can Josh Allen and the Bills beat the Chiefs in the playoffs? These two teams played in a classic in the divisional round a couple years ago which the Chiefs won in overtime.
Yes, because Buffalo has a running game.
Chiefs seem to land btwn 20-24 pts per game and I think Allen and co. can get to 30.
I’m rooting for Buffalo & Washington superbowl . Just flipped to snow a second ago . Josh Allen against the rookie
2” even here
So between yesterday’s rain and now today’s rain we have accumulated 1.3 inches of water
In Padanarram Village along Buzzards Bay. Pretty impressive. The changeover is starting now but sticking will be tough with air temp still at 37.
We were still at 36 when it changed here and accumulation was immediate. I was really surprised. Hopefully it will be fairly fast there
3.25” here so far. Better ratio stuff now.
Impressive temp drop today
Wow. That is awesome
Pete
Where it’s snowing, we’re entering the heavier part of the storm. Where it’s raining, expect some snow to mix in (all but Cape Cod). Note the snowfall rates of 1″ per hour lift northeast after midnight (last two maps).
https://x.com/petenbcboston/status/1881147862505107925?s=61
Looks like the real accumulating snow will be done in a couple hours. This thing is flying.
Or sooner
We are at 3”. With 1 inch even in 40 minutes
Pete trimmed his numbers a bit
https://x.com/petenbcboston/status/1881181954147803231?s=61
JR just now live had that 1-3 at 3-6 . Aren’t they on the same station
No
From pete in my ruler post. Just learned what dendrite snowflakes are
Note the dendrite snowflakes in the topmost layer of snow. Super cool!
https://x.com/petenbcboston/status/1881186010605994445?s=46&t=neG9xl79s_BtNQXSGBlqLQ
Great day skiing at Sugarbush today. Had a few inches of fresh powder last night which made a big difference in the conditions this am. Had some beautiful scenery near the summit with snow/rime ice pasted trees as well as views of Lake Champlain, Mansfield, the ADKs . I’ll post some pictures tomorrow.
The ride back as expected was white knuckle. It was fine until we reached about 30 miles north of Brattleboro and then we hit a wall of snow and conditions rapidly deteriorated. Was snowing very hard at 1-2”/hour in southern VT and then things improved a bit in MA and CT with lighter snow rates. Took us 5 hours and 15 min to get home (should have taken 3 hours 45 min).
Back here in Coventry, roads were terrible but definitely underwhelmed by the snow intensity and amounts that fell in the area. I just went out and measured 3.25” and storm is pretty much done. Certainly not close to warning criteria snow. I guess a lot of the models dialing back on the snow amounts this am should have been a red flag.
What a disappointment this was…..
That’s all I’ll say.
The numbers will speak for themselves tomorrow.
4 lovely inches even And what a beautiful world.
All of a sudden snowing moderately again here and snow is getting blown around by gusty winds. The areas we have shoveled are coated over again.
Cool. Looks to maybe be headed this way
I’m seeing several 4” measurements in towns around me which fit nicely into the predictions. I saw a 7 in Ashford….no clue where that is..,and 7 in north Worcester
Ashfield sorry
The event isn’t over yet. 🙂
A new area of snow is forming and should be good for up to 1 more inch in much of the region.
Amounts will come in a bit low in some areas, and on low end of ranges in most areas. But I don’t need to obsess about how many inches and tenths fall. You apply the science. You make your prediction. The results are what that are. Most people will appreciate it, and the nasty people will trash you behind your back because they are who they are. I don’t care, honestly. It’s beautiful out there. I get to do what I enjoy, and my mom will still be with me as she turns 93 on Tuesday. 🙂
Goodnight all. 🙂 Even you bullies out there. Hope you find a way to be better people than you are. 😉
Now it’s time to take my migraine outside to do snow removal, take a nap, then head to serve breakfast to my memory care friends in the morning.
Have been having the same thoughts and could not have said it better
Just look out the window and see the absolute beauty sent by Mother Nature. For once maybe we can get back to seeing positives
Well done TK. Always know how grateful we are for all you have given us
https://x.com/nwsboston/status/1881210319026176374?s=46&t=neG9xl79s_BtNQXSGBlqLQ
Major city totals.
Snowfall Reports through Midnight for Main Climate Sites] Boston 3.8″, Hartford 3.5″, and Providence 2.0″.
Thanks Vicki. Hopefully there will be a bit more before it ends for good as TK mentioned above. ❄️ 🙂
2 .0 inches here in Hingham thus far.
This was never expected to be a blockbuster storm by any stretch as it is just moving too fast away from us. Winter is not over yet. ❄️
Weather bug is saying that we will be dry and sunny for the next 10 days. I think that means the next three storm threats will all be out to sea.
Because Weatherbug always has perfect 10 day forecasts. 😉
I heard one of the tv Mets (Wankum?) mention that Atlanta is in for some snow soon. Is that the Wednesday system?
Vicki to answer your earlier question: allen media doesn’t own any stations in new england, so no worries there.
Thank you. Great for us. But pathetic overall
I’d say we have 2 inches of wet snow, it looks really nice.
I see that 2nd piece approaching.
Great job TK, it will be nice to have snow cover for a while.
4.0 here, not done.
The first 1/2 inch was sticky, but not heavy. The rest of it is fluff.
I’m still outside now about halfway through my snow removal and it’s absolutely beautiful out here.
Up to 4.5″ here at the StormHQ World Headquarters Compound.
4.2 here. Snow just picked up again.
Kind of funny that my first call 2 days ago is the one that verified better than my last update this morning. 🙂
Hmm… That snow area is expanding and intensifying as it comes in. Looks like more areas are going to fall well within the forecast ranges after all. I’m up to 4.3 and climbing – not crazy rates but pretty steady.
I think snow will be falling until almost 6 AM in some areas.
5.75 total for SE Sutton as of 5:00 am.
I haven’t been out to measure but don’t think I have as much as you though still alternating between light and moderate. Back end looks like it is in Worcester.
No measurements yet but must be around 4-5 inches.
Looks like it might wrap up at 6 AM here.
South Shore looks like it caught up. Rockland MA south shore nearly 7 inches.
Cool.
I’ve got 3 to 3.5 ……… 2 “ of cement topped with a much drier content of snow.
Down to 21F at the nearby Marshfield airport.
7.5″
Cold feels nasty this morning.
5.0 final at Woburn.
New post…
Have a good day all…