Monday January 20 2025 Forecast (7:08AM)

97 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 20-24)

A storm deposited anywhere from a solid coating of snow on Cape Cod to a half foot of snow over the I-95 belt westward last night, and now it’s onto the arctic invasion for the next few days with generally dry weather. One storm will go out to sea southeast of New England Wednesday, and we’ll have to watch another one later in the week as the arctic air departs but it stays cold for the potential to deliver some snow to southeastern areas.

TODAY (MLK JR DAY): Sun/cloud mix. Slight chance of passing snow showers in the afternoon. Highs 25-32 early, then falling through 20s. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 3-10. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 0-7. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and high clouds. A band of lower clouds and snow shower possible Outer Cape Cod. Highs 15-22. Wind N 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod / Nantucket.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 2-9. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouds increase. Lows 10-17. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow southeastern areas. Highs 25-32. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 25-29)

Fair weather start to weekend January 25, snow shower threat to end it January 26. Fair, cold weather follows.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 30 – FEBRUARY 3)

Eyeing an end-of-January or first-of-February snow potential, then fair. Temperatures near to below normal.

97 thoughts on “Monday January 20 2025 Forecast (7:08AM)”

  7. Thanks TK
    NY got 1.6 inches of snow. Will see later if that changes.
    SNOWFALL STANDINGS
    BOS 12.5
    NY 5.8

  12. Thank you, TK. Great job by you and our Mets. We certainly verified.

    What a spectacularly beautiful morning.

  13. Good morning and thank you TK

    going out to clean up. does not look like 5 inches here. Looks more like 3-4 inches. I’ll measure.

      1. I took a bunch of measurements.

        4.5 inches

        of course, there could have been so e settling overnight and a bit of sublimation, but 4.5 on the ground this Am. 15 inches on the season here.

  16. Thanks TK.

    Beautiful scene out there this AM with the fresh snow and sun! 15F here in Coventry. The additional burst of snow late last night added about 0.75”-1” so going with 4.2” as my final total that I reported to the NWS though it had blown around quite a bit so was difficult to measure.

    So we got into the low end of most forecast ranges I saw. Looking through the snow totals in CT it was a general 3-6” advisory level snowfall and in retrospect did not warrant the winter storms warnings.

  18. Now BDL officially up to a whopping 10.3 inches of snow for the season. We may not be adding to that total before January is over.

  20. Pensacola Florida is currently 28F with a wind chill of 17F and under an Extreme Cold swatch for wind chills down to 5F and a Winter Storm Warning for snow, heavy at times, accumulating 1-3”.

    https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=FLZ202&warncounty=FLC033&firewxzone=FLZ202&local_place1=West%20Pensacola%20FL&product1=Winter+Storm+Warning&lat=30.4264&lon=-87.2686

    New Orleans under similar warnings with 3-6” of heavy snow and some light icing…

    https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=LAZ077&warncounty=LAC071&firewxzone=LAZ077&local_place1=5%20Miles%20E%20Metairie%20LA&product1=Winter+Storm+Warning&lat=29.9859&lon=-90.0918

    Cant say I ever seen a forecast like this before, right down to the Gulf coast.

  21. We cleared the snow from 8:30 to 10:30. I can’t remember another storm with such calm winds afterwords during the clearing. I guess our timing was good this morning.

  22. Beautiful snowfall. I measured 5.0 at 7:30 AM. It was easy to shovel and move around. Nice forecast and well verified for the most part.

  24. The top layer of snow here was easily brushed away and then the bottom layer was ice with wet snow on top of that which only came off after getting the cars warmed up.

    Snow events on the south shore.

        1. Omg. You have a great memory. My neighbors birthday is also June 18. It’s a very popular day 😀

          1. Oops. I didn’t look up to see ssks comment. We will just go with the fact that you remembered her bday is then too 😉

  27. Just got in from clearing the snow , it was a very easy cleanup . I’m really not sure what we got as it’s tough to gauge it & I have not ventured out , maybe 2 inches to 2.5 I don’t think 3. So I’m looking forward to hopefully another snow event this Friday , fingers crossed it materializes

    1. My side of the street is all sun , so my driveway is all black now . I’ll probably throw salt down tonight as a precaution.

  28. Eyeing 2 or 3 potential snow events next 12 days. More later.

    Hint: You won’t find them that easily on today’s deterministic guidance.

  30. Quincy = 6.0” ❄️
    Worcester = 5.8”
    Boston (Logan) = 5.0”

    It’s one thing to beat Boston in a snow event but to beat Worcester, I would say Quincy has bragging rights. It did snow here like crazy for awhile but still… 🙂

  32. Thanks goodness today is a holiday. School districts would have probably cancelled school

  33. Thanks TK. Well done with the forecasting on the recent event.

    What an event coming up for the Gulf Coast states too. Potential for half a foot of snow in New Orleans… we did mention this as a possibility quite some time ago, but to see it line up like this is astonishing.

    Will be out of touch for awhile as we deal with yet another major Santa Ana wind event here in SoCal. Positive thoughts for our region appreciated!

    1. Prayers for your region, for you, for all in the path of these fires, and for all men and women fighting them.

    1. Euro 10:1 snow

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2025012012&fh=66&r=us_se&dpdt=&mc=

      GFS Kuchera snow

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025012012&fh=66&r=us_se&dpdt=&mc=

      GDSP Kucerha snow

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025012012&fh=75&r=us_se&dpdt=&mc=

      NAM Kuchera

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025012012&fh=72&r=us_se&dpdt=&mc=

      3KM NAM Kuchea

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025012012&fh=72&r=us_se&dpdt=&mc=

      YIKES! for down there!

      And look at the snow for FLORIDA!!!!!!

      1. Historic if any of those model runs verify. Records will be set that may never be broken again.

    1. Her birthday is June 18th . We were referring to Tom possibly last day of school on June 18th . Vicki & my wife share the same birthday.

    2. Oops sorry I misread. We’ll call it a Happy Half Birthday then to Vicki and your wife (or close enough to it)!

  36. Great weekend skiing at Sugarbush. Saturday started out rough with some lift holds due to winds which resulted in the upper mountain lifts being closed and long lines at the lower mountain lifts.

    Yesterday though was absolutely perfect. They got a few inches of fresh snow Saturday night which resulted in powder/packed powder conditions and the scenery near the top of Mt Ellen was surreal with the snow/rime ice ensconced trees in the sunshine. From the top, we had views of the ADK’s and Lake Champlain to the west, Mt Mansfield to the north, and the White Mountains to the east.

    Here are a couple shots from the Rim Run trail off the summit. With its 360 views, this is arguably the prettiest ski trail in New England:

    https://imgur.com/Dku9jVy

    https://imgur.com/jnjqX2V

    Here is shot coming up the summit lift with the double black diamond FIS trail to the right:

    https://imgur.com/T4HGfWg

    And lastly an up close shot of the snow/rime ice covered trees. They looked like little snow monsters:

    https://imgur.com/2eAhP9O

    Drive back last night was terrible, especially in Southern VT where we hit the heaviest snow. Took us over 5 hours but fortunately made it back safely.

    1. So happy you arrived home safely.

      Your pictures are stunning. I miss those days and love to see your adventures. I am still laughing at the snow monsters and saved to show my grandkids.

  37. The final snow accumulation map for last night’s event.

    https://scontent-bos5-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/474139835_8975006775902350_6342237169306093479_n.jpg?_nc_cat=106&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=aa7b47&_nc_ohc=WVZryTUv0mMQ7kNvgEp06YV&_nc_zt=23&_nc_ht=scontent-bos5-1.xx&_nc_gid=AtqlNGji62jcMukSziY-wfN&oh=00_AYBshkjnSTgJL2GJYF6Q57mGaER1q_QBpNw9IiHofdzboQ&oe=67948296

    All in all, the 4-8 inch wide-swath area verified quite well!
    Points to make about the forecast and the actual…

    The 2-4 inch area that I forecast to be right on the Canal ended up about 10 miles further NW, and Cape Cod was in or slightly below the expected range. Why was this? If you were following the surface low’s development and deepening rate, the low was actually a little weaker and slower deepening than forecast. This took the edge off the pulling in of cold, the supplementing of that cold from aloft, and not as much banding (in fact the latter was very limited and modified). This was responsible for making it more of a 4-7 inch snowfall over the majority of the area instead of a 4-8 inch snowfall.

    All in all, this significant snow event performed pretty much exactly as forecast, but listening around social media, you’d think it didn’t happen. Still not sure where that mentality comes from. It’s completely off base. The forecast verified about 90%!

    I haven’t looked at much going forward after what I wrote this morning, but a quick glance tells me nothing has changed.

    Wed: Out to sea, no surprise.
    Fri: Close-call, may end up further north than currently projected.
    Sun: I think that one is a weaker system / cold front with more of a snow shower event.
    Sometime between January 30 & February 1: A potential that the guidance hasn’t picked out well yet. Keep your eye on it.

    1. Thank you TK. In looking over the accumulation map,
      Having 2 zones to cover the 4-8 zone would have hit it exactly. A 4-6 zone and a 6-8 zone farther West. Ahh 20-20 hindsight!! Given the data as presented, the 4-8 was a sound decision! Completely understood. And thank you again for all your hard work and effort put into each and every forecast.

    2. Re next week, 12z Euro seems to be hinting at some of that potential. It has a couple waves passing to our south and grazing us around 1/27 and again 2/2. Definitely bears watching. But until then, dry and cold is the theme the rest of this week.

    1. 10″ New Orleans, unreal. And look at the 5″ amounts from Panama City to Tallahassee, Florida. If that ever verifies…OMG.

      What’s crazy is that it is actually below freezing in these areas now so the ground will be nice and cold for the snow to start accumulating right off the bat. If there is ever a perfect set up for accumulating snow that far south, this is it.

  41. Snakes and gators don’t like the freezing temperature They will be in some sort of hibernation state.

    2. They are great Dr S. Pattern predictions for the next 2 weeks come out every Monday late afternoon.

  45. While this is going to be a significant storm for the Gulf Coast, it is not unprecedented, and in fact, may not set records in some places. I suggest you look into the Blizzard and arctic outbreak of February, 1899. That storm produced measurable snow in Tampa, and blizzard conditions right down to the beaches in southern Louisiana, where many locations had as much as 3-6 inches. Tallahassee, Florida dropped to -2, the only sub-zero reading ever recorded in the state of Florida. Minden, LA set a state record with a low of -16. Both Galveston and New Orleans dropped into the single numbers (8 and 7 respectively).

    1. I hear ya on the stats etc… but this is really as close to unprecedented if it verifies. It was a lot easier to get that cold back in 1899.

      1. unprecedented – adjective – never known or done before,

        If it’s happened before, and I already showed that has, it by definition is NOT unprecedented.

      2. While it isn’t unprecedented, as you said ….Close to is spot on.

        I was reading about this earlier. Rare was used also but I like close to better

        “…you can say “close to unprecedented” or “nearly unprecedented” to describe something that is very rare or unusual but not completely without precedent. Essentially, you’re acknowledging that while the event might be highly unusual, there are still some similar or related events that have occurred before, albeit not very often.”

        1. I’d love to post a link but it is AI generated and I have yet to figure how to find a link for that

        2. Sorry, something can’t be “close to unprecedented”. Either it’s happened before, or it hasn’t. In this case, it has, so there is a precedent. That’s like saying you’re “close to pregnant”. Either you are, or you aren’t. There is no in-between.

  48. Well they issued a Blizzard warning which is unprecedented:) so I guess it’s historic if it happens.

  49. Here is the NWS tweet

    NWS Lake Charles has issued it’s first ever Blizzard Warning for Jefferson and Orange counties as well as Cameron, Calcasieu, Jeff Davis, Acadia, Vermilion and Lafayette parishes until noon today.

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