Sunday February 2 2025 Forecast (8:22AM)

93 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 2-6)

It’s Groundhog Day … again … and before I start reciting more lines from the movie I’ll just tell you, in case you missed it, that Phil saw his shadow this morning down there in Punxsutawney PA, which means, according to legend, that there are six more weeks of winter to endure. Correct or not, I can look ahead and see a pretty active wintertime pattern ahead for us, but that means a lot of changes, some up and down temperatures, and an increase in unsettled weather after a fairly benign though often cold January. If you are venturing outside this morning, you’ll see your shadow in 99% of the region, as there are some ocean-effect clouds across Cape Cod and at times flirting with the MA South Shore. Even a few snowflakes can fall from these clouds early on today, but they will drift offshore and dissipate soon as high pressure builds over the region. Another thing you’ll have to watch out for if going outside this morning, in fact much of today, is icy non-treated surfaces. Your shadow will also start to fade as the day goes on, in response to increasing high cloudiness from west to east across the region. This comes in advance of a low pressure area that will pass to our north Monday. Its warm front will send a slug of snow through the region tonight, steadiest from the I-90 belt northward. To the south the precipitation pattern will be more patchy and even some rain can end up mixed in along the South Coast as warmer air moves into the region. We’ll be in this warm sector with a southerly air flow and lots of clouds Monday, before a cold front brings a potential rain shower and a definite wind shift Monday evening. During Tuesday, a gusty northwesterly breeze will usher in colder air but with fair weather, as the low exits via Atlantic Canada. High pressure sits over the region Wednesday with dry, cold weather, before low pressure moves our way from the southwest for Thursday bringing a variety of precipitation. The finer details of that system will be figured out over the next few days. Early leaning: Snow to ice to rain for the region in general, but a colder scenario cannot be ruled out.

TODAY: Sunny start / cloudy finish. Highs 27-34. Wind N 5-15 MPH Cape Cod early, otherwise variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. A period of snow, steadiest I-90 belt northward with 1/2 to 2 inches and spot 3 inches possible, less steady to the south with under 1/2 inch and also may mix with rain South Coast before ending pre-dawn. Lows 20-27 early, then rising to 28-35. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. A late-day rain shower possible. Highs 38-45. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH, a few higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A passing snow shower possible. Lows 23-30. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-19. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 21-28. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Overcast. Snow/ice/rain likely. Highs 32-39. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 7-11)

Potential to likely unsettled events late February 8 into February 9, again late in the period, as the pattern will be active. Frozen precipitation chances are high with these.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 12-16)

Another mid period precipitation event potential as the active pattern continues.

93 thoughts on “Sunday February 2 2025 Forecast (8:22AM)”

  2. Thank you, TK.

    Todd Gross often said that, if we get only six more weeks in New England, we are doing well.

  5. Now that I look closer, it’s flurrying and there’s a new, very thin, feather dusting.

    I was in the Lowell area yesterday and on my drive, it was a 2” snow cover from Marshfield to the Braintree split and a 2-4” snow cover from around the Burlington mall plaza points north are. But, in btwn, it looked like patchy coatings at most on the ground.

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.

    9 here this morning. I expected lower, but nope.

    Wonder how much this active pattern will add to this season’s snowfall?

    Can we muster a foot?
    Tine will tell. Canadian and Euro say no, but gfs says you bet .

    Still too early to know.

  11. Thanks TK.

    3F when I woke up this morning in Coventry. No snow yesterday though and just some patchy snow left on the ground primarily from that MLK weekend storm. Looks like we are in the running for 2-3” tonight though which I would gladly take!

    Went to Killington yesterday and they are now 100 percent open. Lots of new natural snow there this week and they are still making snow on some trails with the continued cold weather. It was a beautiful day but a bit nippy.

    This upcoming pattern is loaded as Hadi said and the ski areas will be measuring the snow in feet over the course of the next 2-3 weeks. Good timing as we have a trip to Sunday River in two weeks. The mountains of NH and ME, unlike VT, have not picked up much natural snow so far this season. Snowmaking has saved the day for them but you can’t beat natural snow as it doesn’t get as scraped off and icy as the manmade snow does.

  14. Thanks, TK

    Happy Candlemas Day, 40 days since Christmas.

    According to farmersalmanac.com, tomorrow is the halfway point between the Winter Soltice and the Spring Equinox. Winter is 88.99 days long.

    Also, tomorrow is Red Sox Truck Day. Pitchers and catchers report next week!

    1. This snow is coming from tonight’s system, a warmer mix system on Thursday, and major snow storms on 2/9 (Super Bowl Sunday) and 2/11.

      1. Well let’s say “significant” snow events on 2/9 and 2/11, maybe major is stretch. Though the end accumulations are “major” 🙂

    1. Then goes south with the next system and crushed VA with 2-3 feet of snow, lol.

      Active pattern either way you slice it.

      1. The way this winter has been going going to feel like a major snow storm. Just happy we are getting something

  24. GFS, Euro, Icon and Canadian all remain consistent showing a significant winter storm threat a week from today though right now the timing is such that the system would be out of here first half of Super Bowl Sunday. All snow or snow to mix depending which model you look at and where you are in the region.

    1. I think down this way it’s next to nothing , maybe a trace & I think tomorrow is a mild day .

      1. Around an inch for you, and tomorrow is “mild”, yes. I’ve been saying that for about 5 days now. 🙂

        1. Lot of snow here will probably melt . I like looking at each morning out the back as I’m having coffee

          1. Anything that falls tonight will melt tomorrow. Anything frozen on the ground from the other day will have more trouble melting. Not warm enough for long enough. Cold air comes right back Tuesday-Wednesday. So hopefully anybody with ice pavement either has that melt away or can get it cleared up by Monday evening, otherwise it’s right back to ice again.

  27. Quick thoughts…

    -No changes for this system tonight – minor snowfall.
    -Relatively mild for Monday, upper 30s to middle 40s for highs, which will be good for loosening up that ice cover in a lot of this area.
    -The cold air delivery Tuesday will be impressive enough that it sets up an interesting beginning for the next storm system.
    -Tranquil daytime Wednesday.
    -Snow to ice to rain for most of the region Thursday. The set-up / timing is TBD, and the snow amounts are TBD, but “up to several inches” is not an unreasonable estimate this far out.
    -Fair weather Friday, which I’m hoping holds as the forecast as my son drives back from NJ that day.
    -Weekend storm threat: Cold system, and it would not surprise me if Boston’s 6+ inch snow event “drought” comes to an end. Yes, I said that 7 days in advance. But remember this: “It would not surprise me” is NOT the same thing as “I guarantee”. Not going to be taken out of context here. 🙂

  30. We are driving home from Minneapolis – high temp there Thursday was 52 – beat record from
    1989 by 4 degrees. Then snowy and windy yesterday – temps in 20s. A sign of the up and down to come. I have been impressed by the thick fog from Western Wisconsin to Ohio with a small break in Chicago. We are going to “pitch tent” in Batavia, NY tonight. If we keep going we will catch that clipper that got us in Minneapolis. No thanks

  31. 18z GFS says bring on winter….

    For the Wed night-Thurs. system it has come in colder and is depicting snow to mix and little to no rain.

    For the Sat night/Sun system, again snow to mix.

    For 2/12….snowstorm

    For 2/15…snowstorm

    1. Right, but remember it is the GFS. I will say, support from EURO and CMC. So, time will tell. Looks encouraging to say the least.

      1. Yeah CMC looked even better than the GFS earlier. Lots of model concurrence on frequent frozen precip chances over the next two plus weeks. And they are all laying down widespread significant accumulations through the end of their runs. Encouraging!

  35. I’m going to lean light on the range tonight. Trends include less solid area of snow to start, and by the time the solid area gets here, the coastal plain will be closer to freezing and lose some of the fluff factor. This is due to a wind that is already blowing from the southeast there.

    So I think a nice 1-3 inch snowfall west of the I-95 belt, and more like a coating to around 1 inch I-95 eastward.

        1. That was one of those things that just kept expanding when I thought it was going to be shrinking and moving out. All fluff here, but the rain and then snow initially on top of that created a coating of ice on a lot, and it’s still there. But we’ll at least loosen it up tomorrow afternoon when we have the mild interlude.

          1. Just put the trash barrels out & it’s freezing here at 28 . Of course being sick today probably makes it worse .

  37. Steady snow here in Coventry with maybe a half inch accumulation so far. Radar looks fragmented though with the back edge of precip already at the Hudson Valley so I would be surprised if we top 2” here, despite the winter weather advisory in effect.

  38. This system is moving along fast and as you mentioned Mark the back edge already showing up in the Hudson River Valley.
    There will be plenty more to track after this system.

      1. Plow just went by. I love our DPW

        Is anyone here familiar with what I think is called salt brining? Uxbridge uses it. It leaves stripes on the roads and seems very effective.

        1. Yes, CTDOT and some of the towns here use that. It’s basically a pre treatment they spray down on the roads before a storm and then the snow melts on contact when it starts.

  40. Getting set to wind down now, west to east, a little quicker than projected, but not surprised.

      1. I can’t know. The next event will probably feature a variety, but the one after that can easily be an all snow event.

  43. 2” of snow here in Coventry on the nose and that looks to be it. A little over 16” now on the season.

    Plenty more to come the next couple weeks!

    1. Hopefully more “snow” events than “mixed” events. Certainly don’t want any major interior icing events.

  44. 00z GFS with five snowstorms over the next two weeks. A few of them introduce a change to mix.

    Run total accumulations (not including the 5th system which is just getting started at the end of the run) with 18-36” across SNE and 3-4 feet across CNE and NNE. Kuchera Snow:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025020300&fh=384&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    The solutions on the other 0z models are warmer and don’t deliver as much snow, at least for the first couple systems.

    1. The operational solutions, as usual, will present variety and inconsistency. The take-away is: Active pattern. Very much what WxWatcher and I were discussing earlier this week. 🙂

        1. Given that we have until approximately mid April to get there, pretty close. I maintain my 40-50 inch prediction for Logan. There’s no reason for me not to, based on the upcoming pattern AND the fact that we reach the halfway point of winter today (Feb 3).

    1. over achieved down that way have not yet measured here. going out in a few looks like about 2 here as well.

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