Monday February 3 2025 Forecast (7:22AM)

114 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 3-7)

We’ll be in an active weather pattern with lots to keep track of, so let’s do that! The latest low pressure area to impact the region dumped a solid coating to a few inches of snow on the region overnight, with the warm front extending from the low the reason. That front passes this morning and we end up with a relatively mild and fair day, but late day or evening a few rain showers are possible as the low’s cold front swings through from northwest to southeast. High pressure building into the Great Lakes and the aforementioned low in Atlantic Canada Tuesday means fair but breezy, colder weather for Tuesday. High pressure builds right over the region Tuesday night and Wednesday with fair, more tranquil, but cold weather. The next low pressure comes our way via the Ohio Valley on Thursday, its track far enough north and west that we’ll have warming aloft after initially cold enough air for the system to start as snow. We’ll then be looking at a transition to sleet and/or freezing rain / liquid rain depending on location and details of the temperature profile. Highest probability of non-freezing rain are in coastal areas, with the icy stuff more likely the further inland and elevated you go. Those details will be sorted out in the next few updates. Regardless of those, the system departs and another high pressure area brings fair weather back to the region for Friday.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. A late-day rain shower possible central MA and southern NH. Highs 38-45. Wind S to SW increasing to 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy with passing rain showers possible in the evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 30-37 (watch for black ice where temperatures are near to below freezing). Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-19. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 21-28. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Overcast. Snow/ice/rain likely. Highs 33-40 northern areas, 40-47 southern areas. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 23-30. Wind variable to NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 8-12)

Potential to likely unsettled events late February 8 into February 9, again later in the period, as the pattern will be active. Frozen precipitation chances are high with these.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 13-17)

Another early to mid period precipitation event potential as the active pattern continues.

114 thoughts on “Monday February 3 2025 Forecast (7:22AM)”

  4. Thanks TK
    I just measured 2.5 inches
    NY got 1 inch so they are up to 6.8 for the season. What did BOS get and what is their total for the season?

    1. On the snowfall reports from the NWS, I can see .. Boston: 1.4 in

      Sometimes, I feel like they write Logan airport, so I don’t know if the above report is from Logan itself or another location in Boston.

  8. Thanks TK.

    2″ here in Coventry CT and the schools are on two hour delay. 28F.

    Not going to bother clearing the driveway as it should melt throughout the day with highs reaching the low to mid 40s.

    1. My only take on this is that it will be ACTIVE.
      How much snow we get depends upon how far North
      any individual wave come. Some snow almost for certain. How much is very much up in the air. You noticed that
      the Euro backed off considerably.

      12Z runs can’t come fast enough. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  14. Philip what is BOS up to for the season?
    NY is up to 6.8 inches after 1 inch of snow with this system?

  18. NWS Boston
    @NWSBoston
    1h

    Airport snowfall totals as of 7 AM:

    BDL (Bradley) 2.7″
    PVD (TF Green) 2.0″
    BOS (Logan) 1.7″
    NWS Boston (Norton): 1.6″
    Waiting for ORH to report.

    1. Central and NNE will be piling up the snow this month. I get the feeling that’s the only place that will be, and fine by me. They deserve to have a good ski season with school vacation coming up in a couple weeks

  21. Thanks TK.

    I keep hoping that each storm will fizzle out and be low accumulation and so far my wishes have come true. Keeping my eyes on these next potentials.

    2. 🙂

      Doesn’t matter as it will do what it will do despite what any of us wish for.

      Just take it as it comes. 🙂

  23. Notice on the Thursday system, its not a deep low headed at us.

    This allows for warm air advection to produce precip but it does not allow for the warm air advection so strong that it sends the 0c isotherm ripping northward so fast, thus the snow can hang in there longer.

  27. Snow to mix to rain….

    Changeover storms are not my favorite but looks like we may have a string of them incoming.

    To Tom’s point, these will generally be weaker southwest flow events with overrunning and no strong surge of warmth coming ahead of them. I can see a good chunk of the initial precip falling as snow/frozen mix with these before any changeover to plain rain. We have seen this happen before.

  28. The other lows or ripples further along (according to the GFS run) also are not strong.

    This suggests snow/sleet or ice, but probably not a lot of rain, exception being maybe the extreme south coast/Cape/islands.

    In this particular setup, want a big temp contrast and ripples along it and not a stronger ripple or low, which would have a better chance at lifting milder air further north.

  29. Ensemble mean snowfall on all the medium range guidance is something very encouraging for you, JPD.

  31. Not to get too far ahead of myself, but there’s going to be the potential for a record-challenging cold snap around mid month here. At least 4 opportunities to add to Boston’s snow total before that, and no, we won’t be “done” after that either.

  32. A little closer to soon … 😉

    The Thursday system looks a tad colder to me. This trend keeps going and I’ll have to lessen the rain and increase the frozen / freezing stuff, and obviously lower the temp forecast.

    1. Thanks Jimmy. I had no idea that there was a snow scale (slight, moderate, high) like in the summer for thunderstorms and tornadoes.

      Is this new?

      1. From what I understand it is experimental. I am not sure if they started this this winter

  34. Temperatures did not over-achieve today, mostly within forecast range, or under by up to a few degrees, despite a fair amount of sun. It was still mild though, and above freezing for enough hours in most places to eliminate most of last night’s snowfall and really loosen up or even melt a lot of the ice from the recent event.

    Tomorrow is only slightly colder, and the now-increasing sun angle will help work on areas that didn’t melt off today, so some more “pavement improvement”. Wednesday will be a colder day. In fact I may lower my high temp forecast and this helps to set up a colder scenario for the Thursday event. More about this soon…

    1. It was WARM today. I was out and about and It felt like a BEACH day to me. 🙂 🙂 🙂 I was sweating bullets.

    1. In this pattern, during storms that are “borderline”, the colder air usually wins out, at least at the surface.

      This looms as a potential sleet-fest for part of the region.

  38. PSA for Facebook people…

    Pages that start with “I grew up in…” and then a state name …are scam pages. The one called “I grew up in Massachusetts”, with many posts by fake accounts / scammers, has a post up today saying that “This weekend is the 36th anniversary of the Blizzard of ’78” here in the Bay State. Well, they are only off by 11 years and 5 days, since the blizzard’s 47th anniversary is most definitely not on a weekend, Thursday-Friday February 6-7.

      1. Not sure. It’s probably multi-faceted. These pages have been known to be scams for about a year now, but a lot of people join them and interact on them if they just see the posts. If you pay close attention though, there are inconsistencies and errors all over the place, and looking at who makes the posts and who the admins are become pretty clear tip-offs to the illegitimacy.

    2. Absolutely crushed! Days and days of snow on the 18z GFS….

      It has consistently been depicting the upcoming systems on the colder side of other guidance. I would not fully discount it in this type of setup as discussed above. At the very least, safe bet that more of the precip measured the next three weeks is going to be in the form of snow and ice rather than rain.

  40. Following up on TK’s PSA, Deep-Fake audios and AI Voice scams are rising at a super rate. The majority of voice cloning scams are all about family loved-ones who call claiming they are in trouble and the solution one way or another, comes down to you sending money to “someone” get them out of trouble.

    And yes, the voice you hear will be an exact match to that family person. Best defense is to establish a password with close family members. When your son, daughter, etc calls saying they’re in trouble, ask them for the PW. I have one with my children … it’s a simple defense.

    1. Here’s another PSA:
      Don’t answer calls from numbers you don’t know. Why? Well among many reasons… but also… Because that’s how voice prints can be made. I know some friends who like to mess with scammers, but they don’t realize these scammers might just be getting them to talk longer to get a voice print.

      1. Excellent advice. I have a very Long list of blocked callers. But then they just use another number.

        Also don’t comment or click on those FB posts that say if you hold your finger “here” all ads will stop. Or I never see half my friends. I did this and now I see them Etc

    1. Best pattern of the winter (and maybe years) upcoming for February. Mark my words….there will be some on this blog complaining they are sick of the snow and ice by the end of the month.

      1. End of the month, lol.

        I’m sick of it now. Especially, after it’s fallen. Then it’s all over the car and the walkway and the driveway. Have to add on extra time when headed out.

        If we could just get snow to fall on trees and the ground, but not streets, driveways or cars, then ok, let’s have some more.

  42. Still 100% snow cover here in Downtown Hartford after today. Didnt manage to crack 40 until about 4PM. Back down in the upper 30’s now.

    1. I trust that this will be far off the mark. If there’s one thing I hate more than snow, it’s extreme cold.

  47. Until it’s a day or 2 away, it’s all just a broken record so far this winter as potential event dates keep moving further and further out. Soon we’ll be talking about March

    1. Nah, dont agree this time.

      I do understand the skepticism but this pattern is loaded in the short, mid, and long range and has a lot of model support, and
      it has been consistent support. It’s a very active pattern and one where we are not going to be missing out on storms unlike January where the block was too strong and we were cold and dry. Not saying we are going to have powder snowstorm after powder snowstorm. There will be some slop systems in there. But with systems literally every 2-4 days, accumulation will add up as the month progresses.

    2. That’s for individual systems. This is for the pattern. Meteorology is not always “I have no idea until 48 hours”. Been doing it a while. Trust me, I know. 😉

      1. This reminded me of an old 80s show “sledgehammer”. He’d say “trust me, I know what I’m doing”

  49. Are all these upcoming systems coming straight in from the Pacific (“Pineapple Express”)?

    1. Many, but the source regions do vary, or are also combinations of more than one.

  52. Midweek system trends…
    -Colder
    -Slightly faster

    Beware of the NAM though at this range. Its bias is to under-forecast precipitation, especially on the 12km version.

    Next few hours will be able to check trends on the global guidance.

    Also, pretty solid signs the active pattern is NOT short-lived, but good for up to six weeks. Gee, maybe the ground hog is looking at more than just a shadow. Probably logging on from the burrow. 😉

    2. 🙂 🙂 🙂

      We did mention on another whw blog that our critters have senses we humans have lost

      1. I’ve always felt that early Native Americans and Colonists used critters such as groundhogs for signs in order to survive seasons especially winter. 🙂

        1. They used a lot of short-term signs to react to things, but studied what did happen so they knew what to expect.

          Nature can’t predict the weather in the same way we attempt to do so, but it can adapt and learn from what took place so it can predict seasonal changes when it gets the right cues. I think natives of the land (or any place really) would look for such things and learn how to interpret them.

    3. Yeah 0z NAM looked cold enough but was paltry on the QPF for Thursday. This system never looked that juiced but the NAM looks a bit suspect.

  53. 0Z GFS…..

    Wed night/Thurs: 2-4″ snow changing to mix then ending
    Sat night/Sun: 2-4″ snow changing to mix then ending
    Tues/Wed 2/11-12 – Prolonged snowstorm, 6-10″

    0z Canadian with a very similar evolution.

    1. 0z Euro agrees on the evolution of all three storms as well though is a bit further north and warmer on the first two than the GFS. End result is similar though…accumulating snow to mix to a bit of rain with both.

      All snow (6-10″) with the system next week.

  55. Sorry about that last commentsomehow it got cut off, I was trying to say see the tweet below and was saying I think it would qualify as a monster storm per Jet stream etc…

    “A Japan record has been broken!

    Obihiro received 120cm of snow in 12 hours, setting the all-time national record for 12-hour snowfall—equivalent to the height of a 6 or 7-year-old child.

    Previous record was 91cm, recorded in Yamagata Pref in 2022, according to Hokkaido Shimbun”

    1. We’re starting to see some of the impacts of a temporarily less positive AMO with the HTE. That’s another example, in my scientific opinion.

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