Tuesday February 4 2025 Forecast (6:56AM)

126 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 4-8)

High pressure in the Great Lakes builds toward the region today but the air flow between it and low pressure over eastern Canada increases the northwesterly air flow, which will drive colder air in. This high moves over us tonight into Wednesday with dry, cold, weather and wind settling down. The high slides out of the way Wednesday night and a rapidly-moving low pressure area passes through from southwest to northeast on Thursday. The air is cold enough for this to begin as snow for the region, but warming aloft changes it to sleet and a period of rain before it exits later in the day or early evening. It’s moving quickly enough so that the change to rain may not even be complete before the precipitation exits – so areas to the north go more from snow to sleet (maybe a brief period of freezing rain if it warms enough aloft but stays cold at the surface) while areas to the south go through the transition from snow to sleet to rain a little more quickly. High pressure builds in for Friday and Friday night with fair, seasonably chilly weather, and the high hangs on for Saturday but slowly exits as clouds start coming into the region ahead of the next low pressure system, which we will hear from by Saturday night, based on current timing.

TODAY: Clouds exit the South Coast and Cape Cod areas early to mid morning, otherwise a sunny start elsewhere then a sun and passing clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind NW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 12-19. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 17-24. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Overcast. Snow arrives by late morning, transitions to sleet / freezing rain north & sleet / rain south before tapering off at day’s end. Snow / sleet accumulation coating to 1 inch South Coast, 1 to 3 inches elsewhere, with a few 3+ inch amounts potentially north central MA and southwestern NH. Highs 30-37 north & west / 38-45 south & east by late day. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts in some coastal locations.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Watch for black ice formation on untreated surfaces that have been cleared of snow and sleet. Lows 23-30. Wind variable to NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 16-23. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Chance of snow at night. Highs 27-34. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 9-13)

February 9 storm system looks somewhat similar to this Thursday’s, but will fine-tune the details in coming updates. Next round of unsettled weather comes in the February 11-13 window – snow/mix likely and rain possible for part of the region, but a long way to go to fine-tune this one.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 14-18)

Another early to mid period precipitation event potential as the active pattern continues.

126 thoughts on “Tuesday February 4 2025 Forecast (6:56AM)”

  4. Thanks TK !

    This morning was a classic example of temps well above 32F, I think it is 37F and yet, our walkway was quite slippery.

  5. Tom’s comment made me think of a quiz…

    At what temp is water the most dense?

    1. I knew the answer to this at one point. It is kind of counter-intuitive. I think it was surprisingly something like 37,38 or 39.
      Somewhere in there, I think. Of course, at my age, my memory may be a tad off. 🙂 🙂

  9. The tv Mets are calling Thursday’s event a “9-5” storm. ❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️

  10. Following up on Tom’s ? TK’s comment above. It was very slick along the shore walkway today. Most of the regulars were surprised by how slippery it was. Tough walk today.

    1. Nice cold run too. Glad to see the NAM finally coming around. It was paltry on the QPF yesterday. We are getting closer to the time range now where it is more reliable.

      1. Yes, agree, however, it stumps me why the 3KM is so far off from the NAM.

        ICON and RDPS coming up soon. Wonder what they will say????

  15. In spite of the 3km NAM being different from the NAM, the sensible weather looks the same.

    All 3 models posted above keep the column cold enough at all levels for a burst of snow. All 3 models show precip intensity increasing as it moves through southern New England. All 3 models show the boundary layer even cool a bit after the precip starts due to large dew point depressions.

    I favor the high end of the 3km NAM and the low end of the NAM amounts. I guess an opportunity at a solid 1-3, even to the south coast before a brief mix or light rain.

  18. Thank you, TK

    May I ask what time late Thursday morning roughly. That appointment I’ve been trying to schedule is 11 am as Thursday was only availability

    Thank you

      1. Yikes. Yes I do. I’d be returning home around 12:30 so looks as if I need to reschedule. Thank you, Tom

  23. GDPS very similar to RDPS

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025020412&fh=66&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Looking like a 2-4, 3-6 type event. Still time for some tweaks.
    I suppose some would say 1-3, 2-4. 🙂 🙂 but, I’d lean towards
    the 2-4, 3-6. 🙂 🙂

    We shall see.

    Went to the grocery store and was going to pick up some snow/ice melt and they were sold out!!!!!
    Go figure.

    They sold all of the product they didn’t sell the last couple of years and didn’t order any for this year!!!!

    I’ll have to pick up some locally.

  26. 12z model suite is looking juicier for the weekend system with a pretty heavy up front of thump of snow before a changeover to mix/ice Sat night/Sun.

    And interestingly, they have all trended much colder and drier for next week and are now showing a miss to the south with our snowstorm potential around 2/11-12

    1. 12z GFS Kuchera Snow for the weekend system with a general 3-5″ before a changeover to mix:

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_024h-imp&rh=2025020412&fh=126&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      12z Canadian even more robust with 4 to as much as 8″ in Worcester hills:

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_024h-imp&rh=2025020412&fh=126&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      12z Icon is 2-4″ south of the Pike and 4-8″ northern MA:

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=snku_024h-imp&rh=2025020412&fh=126&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      And UKMET delivers a general 3-5″

  27. I believe that both of the next 2 systems, rapidly moving, deliver their heaviest precipitation on their front ends, more frozen than liquid.

    Neither will be prolific, but #1 has the potential for borderline moderate snow totals over a portion of the region, and #2 has slightly better chances for doing this over a larger portion of the region.

    1. Boston needs 33” to get to normal (49.2”). If these type of systems are going to be our lot for the remainder of the winter (1-3”/2-4”), it’s going to take ALL of winter well into March.

      2 systems per week. Whatever works. ❄️ 🙂

    1. Euro is farther north and warmer than the other models for Thursday.

      For the weekend system, it is consistent with the remainder of the 12z suite showing a HEAVY up front thump snow Sat night/early Sun AM:

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2025020412&fh=114&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      10:1 Snow for the Weekend system with 6″+ but a bit of this is likely from sleet/mixing in the end:

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_024h-imp&rh=2025020412&fh=126&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

  29. Thanks TK

    WWA posted just now -https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=BOX&wwa=winter%20weather%20advisory

  30. We’ve the potential (fairly strong potential, at that) to be impacted by 7 low pressure systems in the next 16 days. That’s active. Also, the majority of these (if not all of them) will likely feature at least SOME frozen precipitation.

    Yes folks, it’s February, and we’re one day beyond the 1/2 way point of winter. Long way to go. Boston will break 40 inches, IMO, this winter, for snowfall. My forecast (from November) was 40-50. 30-year average is 49. Longer term average (which is not considered by NOAA) is a little less than 49.

    1. Will Boston be able to break 40 inches this month or will it take a little longer into March?

      Will the stormy pattern continue into March?

      1. Give them into March. I’m talking about the seasonal total. If they get to 40 before February is over, 50 is within reach without much issue.

        1. Of course the seasonal total. 🙂

          33 inches (or 2.5 FEET) to go. Piece of cake. ❄️ 🙂

    1. Thanks Jimmy. I have no memory of either storm but I was around for both. ❄️ 🙂

      What is ironic though for Boston:

      1960-61 = 61.5”
      1994-95 = 14.9”

    2. Thank you, JimmyJames. I was 12 for the first so don’t remember it specifically but am sure my brother and the entire neighborhood was out building snow forts.

      I remember 1995. It was a tough year to own a horse who was boarded in medway.

  33. Too bad the event isn’t coming tomorrow. There certainly wouldn’t be ANY doubt as to the precipitation type, from beginning to end. Oh well.

    1. Actually, if this event was coming tomorrow, it would be because things were moving quicker. What’s supplying tomorrow’s cold is a high pressure area. Either way, that has to get out of the way before the low comes. This is already to be a colder scenario than it looked like a few days ago. We’ll do “ok” considering it’s not a classic set-up – no high to the north, no arctic air, no rapidly deepening low, and an unfavorable low pressure track. A faster scenario (tomorrow vs Thursday) would still have very similar results, just one day sooner. 😉

  34. By no means part of a final call on this, but 2 areas I’m looking at for highest totals for snow (before sleet) in the upcoming system.

    1) Worcester Hills & Monadnock region. This is associated with some upslope help.
    2) A band near I-90 in eastern MA including Boston to the South Shore. This is associated with a sharpened temperature gradient during the heaviest precipitation.

    My early idea is I like a 1 to 3 inch snowfall just about everywhere, but these “higher amount” areas would have the potential to get to 4 inches. Going over 4 would be difficult mainly due to the lack of time – it’s a relatively short-duration event. Just not enough time.

  36. Seen some online commentary that the 12z ECMWF has backed off the extreme cold late in its run and the snow storms between now and then are mixed bags…Winter 2015 part 2 is over.

    Excuse my language, but can we all just chill the ‘F’ out and let the weather play out and apply some common sense, meteorology, and not modelolgy to February 5-20. (who said that was a period to watch over January 5-20?..ha! I am wrong more than right, so no kudos…)

    With these mixed / borderline events, I suggest staying away from not only the 10:1 maps but the Kuchera too. Take a look at the positive change maps and every 60 hours or so, the snow depth maps. It will give a bit more of the whole picture of the broader actual impact of each event.

    The EPS snow depth map at the end of model run at 360 is basically 2-4″ for all of SNE except the Cape on one extreme 0-2″ and north of RT 2 which is more 5-8″ and locally above 1000 feet.

    This is all to say its not 2015, but its not the last two winters either. Somewhere and middle of the road winter still exists….

    1. I was thinking earlier we’re getting into that + snow depth change season soon.

      One of our colleagues pointed out the ECMWF ensemble mean 45 day snowfall for Nashua NH – 35 inches. That’s HIGH for an ensemble mean, and the events are scattered all the way to mid March.

      Yeah, we have a long way to go, and I believe there is some validity to that forecast too.

      1. I had not seen the 35″ Nashua number. I looked at the weeklies last week and they were somewhat inconsistent in their signals.

        What I do see is a significant difference in the north of RT 2 and at elevation. Tells you just how tenuous any forecast beyond a few days is and anyone who speaks in absolutes is full of poop.

        1. I always say that about “talking in absolutes”. The fake pages out there are full of absolutes, that is, absolute b.s. 😉 .. haha!

  37. Sounds like the rest of winter will be death by 1000 cuts. Frequent minor events that melt in between don’t get me excited, even if we do get close to average snowfall. It’s like having a pocket full of loose change as opposed to bills in the wallet.

    1. Eh, beggars can’t be choosers….will gladly take the 6-12″ over 72 hours that the Icon and GFS are selling Thurs-Sun. We may briefly spike to 40 after the first system and maybe mid to upper 30’s after the second system, then it looks cold all of next week with another chance for accumulating snow Tues/Wed. Once we lay down this snow cover, it isnt going anywhere for awhile.

      2. I thought the snow we got a couple weeks ago wasn’t going anywhere, but here we are with bare ground.

        1. Well, that was a couple weeks ago and what fell was not a lot of snow. Not to mention we had rain Friday and just had two days in the 40’s. A light snowcover isnt going to survive that.

          A 1-3″ snow Thursday followed by sleet/ice and another 3-6/4-8″ over the weekend capped off with a little sleet/ice is going to form a solid cover that should stick around for awhile with the colder temps coming next week.

          Will it stay on the ground till March? Probably not with the higher sun angle in late Feb unless we get additional snow events (not out of the question in this pattern which shows no sign of ending anytime soon).

        2. That’s based on something I said, and I was not talking about the rest of the winter.

          What I was referring to was it was not going to just melt right away, and it did not.

  39. No warmups in sight on the 18z GFS or 12z Euro thru the end of their runs (around 2/20). Highest temp Boston and Hartford gets to is the low 40’s a few times.

    GFS lays down 15″ of snow (Kuchera) in Boston over that time period with a positive snow depth change of 10″.

    Euro lays down 18″ of snow over the same time period at 10:1 (dont have access to the other snow depth numbers).

  40. weather.cod.edu has the kuchera snowfall numbers for the entire 12z EURO run

    20.7 for Hartford
    19.8 for Boston

    1. Thanks JJ. Interesting the Kuchera numbers are actually higher than the 10:1 for those cities in this pattern. Would have thought the 10:1 would have ended up higher due to tainting from mix/sleet.

    1. Mark, are you just trying to troll me now…??I mentioned the snow ground amount on the EPS through 360 and then you post to 10:1 snowfall as snow cover at hour 360…I know you want me to be more aggressive, and trust me, I am in on the next 2 weeks plus, but man, you don’t need to make me look dumb…(I do that enough on my own)

      Also this a joke between online friends, no one needs to get it too offensive or defensive…it is just frozen water….

      1. Ha! Lol, I did read your post above and we were commenting on two different things…..you mentioned the snow depth modeled by EPS at the end of 360 hours was 2-4 inches for SNE. I could totally see a scenario where Boston gets its 15-20″ accumulating at 10:1 or Kuchera over 4 systems but the amount on the ground at the end of the run ends up 2-4″ due to melting, compaction etc.

        I like to count my flakes as they fall. Every flake matters 🙂

  43. The ensembles (both EPS and GEFS) still looking real good for a snowstorm threat about a week from now. Not to jump the gun on Thursday system but it’s the weekend system and next week’s threat that is really piquing my interest 🙂

    1. The entire pattern is interesting to me. Not just for snow, but for events. Like JMA said, not 2015 (we’ll probably never quite see that again at least in our lifetimes), but we’ll see patterns that remind us of it.

      Anyway, I’ve been saying for a while, along with other mets, that eventually we were going to set up an active pattern, and we have, and it’s here for quite a while.

      I know people will doubt me (not necessarily here, just out there in the social media world), and that’s fine. Those are folks that also believe that meteorology is an exact science. I invite them to learn it and try it. And I mean legitimately learn it, as in complete schooling, earn a degree, and get real world experience for people who depend on your information for a variety of things. Not as “easy” as a lot of people realize. I have 35 years of experience to prove it. So……………

      1. Active patterns are always more interesting for sure. I’m not expecting this pattern to deliver widespread double digit snowstorms but we are in the running for 2-4/3-6/6-10 inch type events and events that are going to have R/mix/S lines and changeovers to deal with. Challenging but at the same time fun to try and forecast and track.

  44. Best part of the weekend system should it happen it is over early on Super Bowl Sunday morning for anyone going to any Super Bowl parties.

    1. Yes it does look that way.

      FWIW, EPS ensemble mean snowfall for the Sunday system is about 6″ for Boston and 4-5″ for most of CT. Pretty bullish from the EPS.

    2. Timing has ended up faster on most of these systems than guidance had even up to a couple days out. Not entirely unusual for this type of a fast-flow pattern.

  45. These are my Snowfall Contest 2024-2025 guesses from late November…

    Boston MA: 41.7
    Worcester MA: 60.3
    Providence: RI 35.2
    Hartford CT : 50.0
    Concord NH: 63.3

    If today I was to re-do these, they’d be EXACTLY the same. 🙂

    1. Only 13.1″ of snow season to date in Hartford. Need 3+ more feet to get to that number. Bring it on!

    2. Mine were close. Maybe a little less in Hartford. I love the 41 number. The old 30 year average in Boston. I feel like the current “average” is a little far skewed upward by 2-3 anomalously high snowfall years.

        1. The current 30 year normals are definitely skewed by a couple of really big years. I mean, in the early 2020s we were just coming off the snowiest 30 year period on record for the area. 🙂 So that probably has a little something to do with it.

          1. You know my view on 30 years. Bunk ….and I suspect that is the nicest word I could come up with

      2. Just a “tad” 🙂 🙂 🙂

        Growing up I remember the average being about 42 inches or so.

    1. One of the NAM’s upgrades caused it to have a drier bias, after previously being too wet.

    1. I had one put mine on the contest page, see below

      Here goes nothing! Thanks

      Boston 51.4″
      Providence 29.8″
      Worcester 61.1″
      Hartford 49.6”
      Concord 69.8”

  53. If you are a snow lover, could not ask for anything more from those 0z model runs. Multiple moderate to significant snow events on the GFS, CMC and ICON with run total snows around 18” thru 180 hours in the ICON and around two feet thru 240 and 384 hours on the CMC and GFS respectively.

    1. The CMC looks spectacular, if we can next weeks system all snow I don’t see why we can be talking about 8-12 system hopefully

  54. Take a look at this tweet from an amateur Met I follow who’s pretty good. A little over the top at times 🙂

    “Significant winter storm potential increasing for this weekend.

    Decent shot for NYC metro to see front end thump and a good portion of SNE to see mostly snow.

    Definite 5-10”+ potential here imo.

    And 2-5/3-6” potential for front end thump folks.

    Starts as an Overrunning event but ULL starts consolidating and wrapping and you’ll see it close off and wrap as it moves off the Atlantic.

    S and C NE favored for most snow in this event imo as of rn.

    The more The UL energy presses south and tucks, the higher the ceiling with this storm.

    “Convection out ahead closer to the ULL compared to Thursday and allows more dynamic UL look at 500 vort.

    Could be some higher ceiling potential like I mentioned but I’ll stick with that general idea for now”

  55. From Bernie Rayno

    This pattern is ABSOLUTELY LOADED with storms for the next few weeks. You have Wed-thu and then this weekend, mon-wed of next week (mostly snow) and then one the following weekend. For the most part, they are coast to coast storms. More later.

    1. Feb 6, Feb 8-9, Feb 11-13, Feb 15-16, Feb 17-18, etc…
      This is a very, very long line of traffic. 😉

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