Wednesday February 5 2025 Forecast (6:55AM)

173 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 5-9)

We have 2 storm systems to deal with during the next 5 days, but today is not one of those storm days. Governed by high pressure, it will be sunny (though you’ll notice some increase in high, thin clouds), and with a polar air mass in place, it will be cold. Things change quickly tonight and Thursday as low pressure moves our way from the west southwest, thickening up the clouds tonight and leading to a “daytime” storm on Thursday. Snow moves in during the morning to midday, accumulates up to a few to several inches, but advancing warm air aloft will flip that snow to sleet then briefly rain (south) and freezing rain (north) before it tapers and ends quickly by around dusk. Clearing follows at night, and high pressure builds in with nice mid winter weather on Friday. Before you know it, we’ll be dealing with the next storm system, this weekend. Clouds advance Saturday, and a similar precipitation set-up seems in the cards for Saturday night and Sunday morning. This system may carry a bit more moisture and have a bit more cold air to work with for a little longer, so while the general idea on precipitation is similar, the amounts of snow that can fall may be a little greater than the system that precedes it. Those details are still TBD.

TODAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 17-24. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Overcast. Snow arrives by late morning, transitions to sleet / freezing rain north & sleet / rain south before tapering off at day’s end. Snow / sleet accumulation coating to 1 inch South Coast, 1 to 3 inches elsewhere, with a few 3+ inch amounts potentially north central MA and southwestern NH, as well as I-90 belt to Boston and southern suburbs. Highs 30-37 north & west / 38-45 south & east by late day. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts in some coastal locations.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Watch for black ice formation on untreated surfaces that have been cleared of snow and sleet. Lows 23-30. Wind variable to NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 16-23. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 27-34. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow arrives southwest to northeast with up to several inches of accumulation likely. Lows 20-27. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Overcast morning with snow/sleet/ice/rain tapering off southwest to northeast. Partial clearing afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind variable to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts late-day.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 10-14)

Next window of opportunity for a storm system comes February 11-13 and looks like a colder event with snow, favoring southern areas, but still a long way to go to refine the details on that. Fair weather to start and end the period. Temperatures run slightly below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 15-19)

Temperatures variable but averaging near to below normal for the period. Active pattern with two potential impacts from low pressure.

173 thoughts on “Wednesday February 5 2025 Forecast (6:55AM)”

  2. Thanks TK
    February at the moment does not appear to be a snooze fest with opportunities for precipitation every couple of days.

    1. No snooze-fest. No blow-torch.

      These active patterns tend to be slightly milder than average.
      This one may end up a little colder than average (at least over the next 15 day period).

      Of course I must remind that the temperature departure is NOT necessarily correlated to how much snow vs. rain falls.

      We’ve had plenty of cold patterns with little or no snow, and mild patterns with prolific snow. The latter is actually easier to achieve during the second half of winter, although this upcoming pattern is not going to be particularly mild… 😉

  4. Thanks, TK!

    Beautiful orangey, red sunrise this morning! The sun’s up over the horizon now on the way in!

    2. It’s an orangy sky
      Always it’s some other guy
      It’s just a broken lullaby
      Bye bye love
      Bye bye love
      Bye bye love
      Bye bye love

  5. Quite a bit of difference walking the shore when the sun is below the horizon versus above the horizon. When comes up, you can feel it almost immediately.

    We are now gaining 2.5 minutes of daylight each day.

    1. I DO NOT LIKE THAT TERM!!!!!

      If that is the case, it should be
      HAPPY METEOROLOGIST DAY!!

      Happy Weatherperson’s Day is an insult to Mets!!!

      I am aging myself, but it takes me back to the old days of TV
      where it was literally a “weatherperson” presenting the weather and NOT a true meteorologist.

      I specifically remember a “weather girl” on channel 7
      that would present with a clear board and a marker. OH, am I ever OLD!!!!!!

      1. Whoa! Don’t shoot the messenger JPD! It’s all the newscasters been talking about all morning. 🙂

        As I’ve stated before here, it seems there is a special day for everyone/everything these days. 🙂

        My thinking is that it’s also set aside for weather enthusiasts like us as well, who don’t have Meteorological degrees? 🙂

  11. Quick peak at the first 12z run of the day the HRRR showing a general 2-4 inches of snow before any mix happens.

  12. Thanks TK! Looks like my prediction for only 6 inches of snow in Padanaram Village is going to be under. We are at 4 already. And next week’s storm could finally end the the “winter storm watchless” streak I have had since I moved here July 1, 2022 – currently 950 days.

    1. Bernie’s (and Jim Kosek’s) AccuWeather web page bloopers were the best. 😀

  18. Short range model of choice: HRRR.
    Best read on the thermal gradient I mentioned yesterday.

  19. TK – Are you offended by this being “National Weatherperson’s Day”?

    When I first heard it this morning, I assumed it was for serious weather enthusiasts as well. 🙂

    1. Nope! And as far as I’m concerned, it’s for the enthusiastic non professionals open to learning, too. 🙂

      1. Ok, if that’s how they want it.

        Then, there SHOULD be a national METEOROLOGIST DAY as well. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  20. If I’m not mistaken, “Wheel of Fortune” host Pat Sajak was a “Weatherperson” in Los Angeles before he became a famous host. That might be how he got recognized, not certain though.

  21. Is it really going to mix up here on the Mass border or be an all snow event for us northerners?

    1. Mass/ NH border?

      I doubt it and even if it does flip to sleet and freezing rain there isn’t much QPF left. I also think like many of these storms it will end up colder than modeled. The early part tomorrow should be really nice and fluffy.

      1. I agree. Will look very much like Winter for awhile tomorrow.
        Snow rates may be right up there for an hour or 2. 🙂

  23. This system starting to look like a general 2-4 inch snowfall.
    Quick peak at the 12z GFS for Sat night into Sun morning looks to be all snow and a 3-6 4-8 snowfall.

  24. Full fledged SNOWSTORM with no mixing on the 12z GFS and ICON for Sat night/Sunday. Except perhaps the Cape.

    Both models depicting 6-10″ Kuchera.

    1. 12z GFS Kuchera Snow for Sunday system only:

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_024h-imp&rh=2025020512&fh=108&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      12z ICON Kuchera Snow for Sunday system only:

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=snku_024h-imp&rh=2025020512&fh=108&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      12z Canadian on board as well (except for that JMA snow hole in the Pioneer Valley):

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=snku_024h-imp&rh=2025020512&fh=108&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

  25. Assume at the sfc the cold air to be more stubborn tomorrow, with a slight sfc redevelop in extreme southern New England or just off the south coast. Will hold the low level chill better than modeled.

    Conversely, primary still west of us initially, assume mid levels to be undermodeled for moderating.

    I still like a general 1-3, with a turn to sleet and maybe a touch of ice or light rain at the end, but sfc temps struggling to get to 32F until actually tomorrow night, ahead of a cold front, which might stir things up and get the temps up in the mid 30s before struggling to rise Friday.

  26. AJ from ch 5 has slightly higher #s than I do…

    C-2 / 2-4 / 4-6 basically south to north in thirds.

        1. 0z Euro also had a hit with a system next week while GFS and ICON have next week’s threat more of a sideswipe that passes mostly south and is not as strong. And no, I am not taking these threats one at a time…. 🙂

  28. I am fortunate to be headed to Florida for February school break.

    I might see if our town will let me teach through zoom and come back after April break. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  31. Thank you, TK.

    I stopped at the bank this am. The very nice gentleman who helped me mentioned snow tomorrow. I said I love snow and he said you’ll love next week. And I knew he enjoys weather. I have him the URL for WHW and hope he joins in the fun here

  32. Philip, I think maybe you’ll be able to stop your less than 6″ snowfall run for Boston in about 4-5 days.

    1. What is ironic, Quincy received 6” on the nose back on MLK weekend but Boston fell an inch short. ❄️ 🙂

      I’ll be glad when I can stop counting. 😉

  33. 12z Euro starting to come around with a slightly colder more southerly track on the next two systems. We thump pretty good for a few hours tomorrow and for many hours early Sunday. Very good chance Boston’s 6″+ storm drought ends Sunday.

              1. he he he.
                I’ll check it out when I have to get up to hit the bathroom.
                At my age, it typically happens every night somewhere between 2 and 4 AM. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  35. 12z euro is really a beautiful run even if we get half those storms and totals it would be amazing.

    1. You don’t see that very often. Now will it all verify? Or as you say 1/2 of it. 🙂

      We start it all tomorrow.

      Why do I keep thinking that Boston gets 4 or 5 inches. Something is nagging at me. Wishful thinking? perhaps, I dunno. I am remembering a few of these coast to coast systems like this and the 2 I remember, delivered 5 inches.
      I guess we’ll know tomorrow. Even 3 would pretty things up significantly.

    2. The Euro is on the extreme end of the solutions but bottom line is that every operational model, consistently from run to run, is dropping a significant amount of snow over the coming two weeks. We are not going to get skunked in this pattern. This is as strong a signal for an above to much above average snow month that we have had in some time.

  36. Really curious what schools are going to do tomorrow. How high are the chances of freezing rain? I think is that’s forecasted then my guess they cxl.

    1. Precip won’t start till 9 or 10 AM in Boston. Tough call. Happy I don’t have to make it.

      1. Most will cancel IMO. Timing is such that the ride home would be messy pretty much everywhere.

        1. I had this discussion with my high school junior this afternoon. I told him it will be a tough call and he should just prepare for a regular school day. He didn’t exactly love that comment. 🙂

          1. Make sure he does his homework and study for any tests. It should be pretty much over mid-afternoon (2-3 pm?). 🙂

    1. This is INSANE! ❄️☃️❄️

      The Tokachi region in Japan experienced record-breaking snowfall, with Obihiro City buried under 1.2 meters (120 cm / 47 inches) of snow in just 12 hours as of the morning of February 4th. This marks the highest snowfall recorded in the country since records began and is three times the city’s average February snowfall.

      https://x.com/JimCantore/status/1886920800395002066

      1. I wish other countries would STOP using the metric system! It drove me crazy back in my school days.

        I guess that is my “rant”, such as it is. 🙂

        Thanks Mark for the conversion.

      2. Saw that story the other day. Posted it here but think it got missed. That’s insane. 47 inches in 12 hours. That’s nearly 4 inches an hour for 12 hours. That’s mind blowing

  43. Thanks TK.

    A lot of people (not here!) are about to get a rude reminder of what “real” New England winter looks like, from a precipitation perspective this time after the dry cold of January. This upcoming pattern is pretty wild, and it’s really going to make a mess of things in SNE. Storms every 2-5 days, all of them with a snow/ice component. Some very minor warm-ups in between which will promote many melt/re-freeze days. And this pattern will have a lot of staying power, deep into this month and maybe even beyond.

    And, a stark reminder that we don’t live at 500mb. You can thank, at least in part, the Southeast ridge for most of the snow and ice you see the next 2-4 weeks…

    1. Thank you WxWatcher. Should be interesting….

      Oh, I remember the days at Lake Pearl and Lake Archer.
      We used to sneak in the back end of Lake Pearl right from rt. 140.

      🙂

    2. I’ll believe it when I see it. JUST KIDDING …. Just. Kidding. 😉

      Thanks WxWatcher!

    3. Hi WxWatcher. And thank you. Are you still in MA or back home in CA?

      I apologize. I can’t recall what Nws office you are working from now.

    1. It’s been consistently warmer and a bit further north with the mixing than the HRRR. Not seeing any changes in the HRRR.

    1. Looks very similar to 12z to me. Most of the meaningful precip falls as snow over 3-4 hours then its just spotty mix before ending. In and out quickly.

      Just the appetizer to the main event Sunday, as JJ would say.

    2. It could end as a bit of rain, yes. But we’d be talking about … “a bit” as in a very little bit. 98% of this thing come through before it’s warm enough for rain, even in the city.

  46. MJO strengthening in phase 6. Heading into phases 7, 8, and 1 over the next few weeks.

    This is what winter weather fans wanted to see.

  47. Vicki, my son with all scouting merit badges was interviewed today and “should” be on WBZ news at 6pm this evening. Very proud of his accomplishment!

    1. That is awesome. I’m glad I popped on here to see what’s new. Just in time and I set dvr to record. Thank you.

    1. The pattern has the potential to have a lifetime of about 6 weeks.

      The large scale set-up doesn’t scream 2015 and 2011, but it does say “winter in SNE”. There will be mixes, smaller events, moderate events, maybe a couple larger ones. Bottom line: Active.

  49. Quite a number of school cancellations already with probably more to come.

    Back in the day, I doubt a couple inches would close any schools. No such thing as “delays” either.

    Glad I’m not a school superintendent. Better safe than sorry I suppose. ❄️ 🙂

    1. Even in my day (I’m an old Millennial), it was usually winter storm warning criteria that warranted a snow day.

      I’m rooting hard for tomorrow to be a nothing burger. Our school district’s last day is Friday June 20th. I really don’t want to go into the next week due to a 2” storm

    2. I will never question a cancellation. We had many when I was young but it isn’t the same now. Every super knows his or her town. Better safe than sorry has to be the basis

  50. Coventry just called a remote learning for tomorrow. We get two of those before they dip into the full snow days.

    2. Curious what happens during a remote learning day. Do the teachers actually teach class via zoom? Or do they just have a set of assignments for the students to work on (and how is that different from, say, regular homework…)

      1. It’s an abbreviated school day that starts at their normal time (7:40) and ends at noon. Then teachers are available for extra help after lunch. All their blocks are truncated and the teachers teach via Google Meet. They ensured all the students went home with their chrome books at the end of the day today in anticipation of this. This is basically the same way they taught during covid. State of CT allows two remote learning days per year for each school district. Some do it and some don’t. Once they use up the two remote days, they start using regular snow days.

    1. Diamond. I didn’t see your son interviewed. Did I miss him or maybe he’s on the later news. ?

  53. Outside today out of the breeze in the sunshine the sun has a bit more of a kick and also now brighter at solar noon.

  54. Yesterday a lift fell at attitash. I believe the passenger is ok. My friends son and grandchildren were eight chairs behind. Today 64 people had to be rescued from the lift at cannon.

    1. Saw that. Horrifying. Poor maintenance and negligence by the staff and management at Attitash. Very lucky he wasn’t killed!

  55. It’s really cold tonight, it’ll be cloudy by sunrise, so the sun won’t moderate the roads much, every model seems to indicate temps 22F-28f from 9am to noon.

    So, whether it’s a half inch of snow and sleet or 3 inches of snow and a little sleet, I expect a high impact road event for a while tomorrow.

    The one helpful thing might be the amount of salt residue already on the roads, but I think some intensity might overcome that too.

    I worry on these events. I think drivers see a little snow and don’t take it serious but I personally believe these little events are more dangerous than the bigger ones.

      1. It didn’t show on the 6pm edition so hopefully on the morning edition. I will let you know

      2. It didn’t show on the 6pm although it was supposed to. It will hopefully be on the morning edition.

  59. Our kids school closed for tomorrow, I totally get the safety issues but can’t we wait until the AM especially for private schools.

    1. After last year’s debacle a number of peer independent schools in the 128 belt agreed to wait until the AM going forward.

    2. I have a number of fiends and some family on school committees. Parents demanded to know night before.

      1. Totally get public schools need to make a decision the night before. But small private schools have no reason to cxl the night before on a borderline storm to begin with.

        1. Agree. Do you know why they announce night before? Could be pressure from parents or another reason. Get enough parents and you can change it.

          2. Some but most are within several miles of the school. Many get driven to school. Again not saying we shouldn’t close the school, but just wait until 5 AM and call it then.

  64. I’ll break them down here for todays system

    EURO- drop from 6z euro fits within the range close enough.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025020600&fh=48&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=sn10_acc-imp&m=ecmwf_full

    GFS-Consistent with track, totals up from 00z run

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025020600&fh=48&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=sn10_acc-imp&m=ecmwf_full

    CMC- increase from 12z run.
    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2025020600&fh=78&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

  65. It is looking like this could be the appetizer before the main course Saturday night into Sunday morning. Dessert might be served the middle of next week.

  67. Mark is snowing out your way.
    Light snow here and the pavement has a coating of snow on it.

  68. Seems like none of the schools on the south shore cancelled for today. Hopefully roads will be decent at dismissal time.

    1. The roads down here could be interesting whether we get a half inch of snow followed by sleet or 3 inches of snow followed by brief sleet. This, because the models show the surface temps struggling to get to the freezing point by even late afternoon, even down here.

      1. That was my thought as well Tom. And so many young inexperienced high school drivers will be hitting the road. Back in my day there were maybe 3 lucky kids who had their own car to drive to school.

  69. From Eric Fisher

    If looking at relatively recent winters, I think the vibe of this one most closely matches 2010-11

    Had a run of snowstorms in January that year…this one coming a couple weeks later but in general the season seems to be running very similarly

  70. For once, a system isn’t ahead of schedule. I can hear the dry air air chomping away at the leading edge of the snow

  73. I can confirm where I am in CT that snow is happening. It has been snowing for about an hour. Pavement already has a coating on it.

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