Thursday February 6 2025 Forecast (7:10AM)

318 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 6-10)

A series of winter storms looms, and two of them will impact our region during this 5-day period. The first one is a daytime storm system impacting our region today as low pressure travels this way from the west southwest. As the low approaches, it’ll deliver a fairly short-lived but strong area of precipitation, which starts as snow from mid to late morning – southwest to northeast – then flips to sleet and eventually a brief period of rain and drizzle, which will be falling into sub-freezing air over some inland locations, creating a light glaze or newly fallen snow or any cleared / untreated surfaces. But the bulk of this event will be in the form of snow, with a minor to “low end” moderate accumulation common. Tonight, the system exits and we clear out, with a fair but windy day for Friday. The high temps Friday climb above freezing with some melting being able to take place. Meltwater will re-freeze Friday night, and while the weather remains fair through the daylight hours of Saturday, watch for icy spots from that re-frozen meltwater. While this is going on, high pressure that moves toward the region Friday, squeezing the air between it self and departing low pressure for the wind, will then move overhead at night with winds dropping off, then will push off to the northeast Saturday as the next storm system heads in this direction. We’ll see the clouds increase ahead of it during the day, and then its precipitation shield will impact the region Saturday night and Sunday morning. The track of this system looks a touch further south than the one that precedes it, and it will have more available moisture and last a little longer, so I’m looking for a widespread moderate snowfall. There may be some mix / change to sleet / ice / rain in southern portions of the region – especially near the South Coast, depending on how far north the low’s track is. This system departs later Sunday, replaced by fair weather and wind. The wind subsides and the fair weather dominates on Monday as an area of high pressure moves in.

TODAY: Overcast. Snow arrives by late morning, transitions to sleet / freezing rain north & sleet / rain south before tapering off at day’s end. Snow / sleet accumulation coating to 1 inch South Coast, 1 to 3 inches elsewhere, with a few 3+ inch amounts potentially north central MA and southwestern NH, as well as I-90 belt to Boston and southern suburbs. Highs 30-37 north & west / 38-45 south & east by late day. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts in some coastal locations.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Watch for black ice formation on untreated surfaces that have been cleared of snow and sleet. Lows 23-30. Wind variable to NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 16-23. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 27-34. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow arrives southwest to northeast with up to several inches of accumulation likely. Lows 20-27. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Overcast through midday with snow, possibly mixed with sleet/ice/rain in some areas before ending. (Total accumulation details on next update, but 4+ inches of snow is quite possible in much of the region.) Partial clearing late-day. Highs 33-40. Wind variable to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts late-day.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusty.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 11-15)

Next window of opportunity unsettled weather early to mid period – early call being 1 or 2 waves of low pressure moving south of the region with odds favoring snow over mix/rain. Fair weather returns later in the period. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 16-20)

Temperatures variable but averaging near to below normal for the period. Active pattern with two potential impacts from low pressure.

318 thoughts on “Thursday February 6 2025 Forecast (7:10AM)”

  1. Regarding my broadbrush 1-3 inch. I didn’t change that to 2-4. I’d probably be comfortable having done that with a caveat to the south, but I think enough areas to the south come in under 2 that the original call covers it, and the caveat is applied to the 3+ amounts that can occur to the north and in one potential southern suburban Boston belt (depending on the action of that temp gradient I’ve talked about). It’s a short window of time to do this all in.

    Anyway, be safe!

  6. Thanks TK !

    Large dewpoint depressions.

    Once the precip starts, there’s room for sfc temps to fall some, locking in that cold air at the surface.

  7. AJ called the upcoming pattern “2015-LITE”. ❄️

    He did caution that the amounts won’t be anywhere near those 2015 levels!

    2. Wow, I’m surprised he said that. Maybe he missed the snow the last couple seasons.

      The only reason I say this, is from a pattern perspective, its a completely different pattern.

      2015 was a deep trof with very strong 500 mb disturbances that formed strong coastal lows near the benchmark.

      This is anything but a trof, a SE ridge with SW flow aloft overrunning cold air over the northeast.

      1. I believe he was referring to the “frequency” of storms passing through, not necessarily the exact pattern per se. That’s my interpretation anyway.

  9. So far NY has recorded a half an inch of snow putting them at 7.3 inches of snow for this winter. Will see what the total is for BOS when this system is over.

  10. Snow picking up with a steady light snow. The surfaces are cold enough for there to be a sugar coating on all surfaces. SE Sutton

  11. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Waiting on the snow.

    I may have been 1/2 asleep, but I swear I heard Pete say snow rates could be 1 to 3 inches per hour with Sunday’s storm. That would be something.

      1. well, good, I wasn’t imagining it. And yes, I figured it would be short lived. Even so, it would certainly add too the accumulation.

  14. If radar echos mean anything, it looks like that nose of mild air aloft may be onto Long Island and the immediate south coast of Connecticut.

    1. Looks like it is snowing here, but NOPE. Not a flake, at least not when I look out and that has been about a dozen times. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  16. Precipitation onset is about 90 min ahead of expectation in southwestern and southern areas. Not surprised, honestly.

  18. Thanks TK! Lightly Snowing In Padanaram Village – temps went from 22 to 32 pretty quickly with breeze off the water

  19. As far as I can tell, Braintree is the only district on the South Shore that’s closed today, and that’s only AM/PM Kindergarten, Pre-School.

  25. Good morning and Thanks, TK!

    Middleborough school are closed, thus postponing my retirement by two days. It was June 18, but now it’s June 20 because we already had Juneteenth off. My retirement may be pushed into the week of June 23 based on the preliminary forecasts for next week! 🙂

    I had the day off any way with a rare personal day. I am off to Green Airport to pick up my bro.

    On Monday morning, Febraury 6, 1978, Mansfield HAD school! We got out at 11 am early release because of the storm. Despite having my license (I was a senior at MHS), it was practically unheard of for teenagers to have their own cars, so Mom picked up me and my younger brothers from Mansfield High School at early dismissal. A normal six minute drive from school to home took 30 minutes in the storm.

    I seem to remember that schools in neighboring Norton did not get out early and kids and teachers were stuck safely in their school for the duration of the storm.

    I got into the worst car accident of my life in my Mom’s AMC Hornet (worst car ever made) the week after the Blizzard. I was coming back from King Philip HS in Wrentham after a basketball game and a car from a cross-street ran the stop sign and I didn’t see him because of the towering snowbanks.

    1. Iirc that Monday everyone had school. I certainly did. Technically, most of the morning was dry. Snow didn’t begin until after lunch but then really got going soon after.

  29. I get the safety issues around closing schools a day before a “storm,”(I guess) but what I don’t get is my community declaring a snow emergency, which bans all downtown parking. I own a record shop in Amesbury, so while they aren’t saying I have to close, they are making it virtually impossible to open. For maybe 3 freaking inches of snow. Who’s compensating me for potential lost business? Who’s paying my employee for a lost day of salary? The way we overreact to a couple inches of snow these days is ludicrous.

    1. TOTALLY AGREE!!!!

      And on the news last night you’d think we were about to
      be hit with a BLIZZARD of 78 type snow storm!!!!!!!

      WIMPS!!!!

    2. Do you want the roads cleared quickly and thoroughly? Or do you want snow banks out into the middle of the lanes creating a safety hazard?

      If you want a quality plow job done quickly, you need to get cars off of the road. If you want a crappy plow job that lingers for days, just leave the cars there.

      You can’t have one without the other.

      People will complain that the job isn’t being done well, and then when you put in the mechanisms to do the job well, people complain about that.

      1. They’ve closed all the downtown parking lots. They could close one and leave the other open. Every day of business is important to small retailers. As I said, I get it, but there has to be a better plan. I’m sure my employee who loses a day’s worth of pay will be thrilled when I tell him.

        1. Ask the City if they can use your suggestion, and if they can’t why not? They are not doing this purposely to ruin your business, so find out why/why not and what could be done differently.

  34. I had a burst of heavy snow for about a half hour between 7-730. Now that the snow has lightened up getting some sleet.
    Saturday night into Sunday morning is the one I am watching as it looks like at the moment a 4-8 5-10 inch snowfall.

    1. Wasn’t supposed to start out heavy. That’s later this morning for a short time.

      But it did come in about 90 min early everywhere.

  37. Dropped car off with mechanic – got to run 1 mile in the snow back home. It was definitely frigid. Light fun snow. I can handle this kind of snow.

  39. Reminder: the detailed forecast is in today’s post. All the expectations are outlined there.

    1. I wouldn’t consider this a “strong area of precipitation.” In fact, it’s fairly broken up and the back edge is already approaching western CT. Unless this starts to build back and tighten, we’re done by 1ish or sooner. But to be fair, I wasn’t expecting more than an inch or 2.

  41. Already flipped to sleet here in Coventry CT after only about 0.6” of snow. Still only 23F. I’d say the NAMs were not entirely out to lunch.

    1. Precip is very fragmented off to the west as well. Not much QPF here at all as the NAM had been showing.

    1. Well let’s be fair here, this isn’t a major event.

      Nobody was looking for 3 inch per hour snows. Heh.

  47. The cellular nature of the echoes to the west indicate the lift that will re-solidify the precipitation shield over the next 4 hours.

    Reminder: this wasn’t supposed to be a major snowfall. (See my accumulation forecast in the discussion. )

  49. I wish everyone who runs a city, town or school system followed this blog. Maybe we wouldn’t have so many panicked, unnecessary closings and snow emergencies if they did.

    1. This one’s a tough one because of the timing.

      And always, there is a focus on the final accumulation, which, as has been pointed out here many times is one of the last important things when you are talking about conditions.

      SAK outlined that very nicely recently when he listed off the things most asked for by clients who need weather information in the short term.

  50. Social media post I saw early this morning: “So where’s the snow?”

    I would love to believe it was a joke, but it wasn’t.

          1. All I am saying is that I expected more intensity.
            I expected it to snow decently for about 3-5 hours and be done. When I say decently, I mean about 1/2 to 1 inch per hour. That is what I expected. Not getting anywhere close to that. That is all I am saying.

            NO, you NEVER mentioned those snow fall rates.
            But Pete DID mention up to 1 inch per hour for a while.

            Perhaps one of these cells will deliver before it quits, but so far, NOPE.

  52. Was dreading the commute into Boston as we just got to BI for wife’s follow up appointment. Very decent commute with little traffic & bare roads . All roads in Boston wet , hoping for the same on the ride home .

    2. As previously mentioned, the worst is going to be over a very short period of time in this event. It’s better to plan for something worse than you end up seeing.

  53. Hearing the occasional ping of sleet on the windows, 29 degrees and rising here in Sharon (one of the few towns that didn’t cancel school)

  54. Light and steady snow. Not expecting that to change much as we go through the morning. After all, this is only forecast to be a couple of inches. Kind of nice out there.

    2. The weekend one better be a full meal and then some. Today is turning out to be an empty partially wilted lettuce wrap…

      1. Despite what others say, I totally agree! Visibility must
        be about 10 miles here.

        Maybe up to .2 or .25 inch. Maybe

  56. 34 degrees with sleet and rain mix in Padanaram. This is about as ugly as a day can get imo. Breezy, raw, and just “warm” enough to turn the white to grey. The hysteria over this storm with school districts closing the night before seems to indicate people just want a big snowstorm. The media didn’t help by emphasizing icy roads etc..but come on as far as snow goes Monday morning was worse here in the coast. I can only imagine what the hysteria will be with the next two storms – hopefully by Presidents week people will get ised to snow again and calm down. Rant over

    2. I think the problem is everybody was expecting the entire pattern’s snowfall to magically appear before the first event even started.

  57. We have .75. If it were to stop right now, I would consider the 1-3 verified.

    And, it is a pajama day so I have time and it keeps me from my original plan to vacuum and wash floors. So, I counted. TK has said as of 10:45 that what we are seeing is exactly what was expected.

  59. I’m of the opinion its about what I expected.

    I’m also judging this by road conditions and with the temps being what they are, if this underachieves, its irrelevant because even .1 inch of snow is adhering to road surfaces with temps well below freezing. The impact is not underachieving.

        1. Not even close here. Maybe 1/4 inch or so. 🙂
          NEVER really snowed. Well, it snowed but it didn’t
          SNOW!

    3. I went onto my deck which was clear and it’s really slick. I do not recall it ever being slick let alone with 3/4 inch.

  62. Very light sleet/mixed precip continuing here in Coventry after the initial 0.6″ of snow. Up to 27F now.

    Just need to figure out whether I am going to use the broom or leaf blower to clear the driveway.

      1. I was hoping for and expecting a couple inches, yes. Most short range models had that for my area aside from the NAM. But looks like the NAM nailed this one both in terms of the lack of meaningful precip/fragmented nature of precip and the quicker changeover to sleet.

        1. Yes, this morning’s NAM was the only model to NAIL it or so it seems.
          I wonder what happened????
          One thing for sure, the heavier precip was decidedly to the North, mostly North of the Mass Pike. To the South of there, meh

  63. A burst of a few more flakes just briefly appeared.
    Do I sound Jaded? You betcha!!!! 🙂 🙂

    Onto Cleveland, err the Sat-Sun event. Watch that one slip out
    South of us. 🙂

    2. Looking good. Now we just have to see if they verify and what we actually do get.

      At the end of that time period, If verified, Boston would be very close to their seasonal average.

    3. Then GFS develops a major coastal storm for next weekend that delivers more snow but doesnt fully get its act together until it is just past us. This should be a wild week upcoming.

  71. 1.2 in Reading. Flipped to sleet right at noon.

    Somebody here said. “I thought you said 3.”

    I said “1 to 3”. My goodness. People don’t learn.

    I’m sure some ppl out there in social media land will be talking crap that got 1/2 inch in the 1-3 forecast area. Ooooo. Off by 1/2 inch! Should never attempt to predict the future again! 😉

    I for one will be happy to come in on the lower side. I’m on my own for cleanup after work and my double heart condition will be grateful for the easier work load. 😉

  72. Now that were just over 48 hours from the beginning of the next event, early call for snow…

    3-5 South Coast with some potential mixing.
    5-9 elsewhere. Isolated 10 possible.

      1. On a serious note, I have plans late Saturday afternoon into the evening and hope the snow can hold off til late evening.

      2. Hahaha!!

        I know you’re kidding but it’s sad to say there are a lot of ppl out there clueless enough to do that, and be serious.

  73. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sfctd-imp&rh=2025020612&fh=19&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sfctd-imp&rh=2025020612&fh=24&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Tomorrow morning could be interesting, because overnight, the local dps hang around 30F with fairly light winds. I would assume surfaces will remain quite damp.

    Around 12z tomorrow, the first thing to suddenly drop is the dew point and while that can help with evaporation, its going to be an interesting race btwn evaporation and the drier air allowing for moisture to freeze up, even if the air temp is 34F – 37F.

  74. That area of heavier snow has made a mess of Routes 2 and 495 NW of the city. Hazardous driving. Numerous accidents.

  75. Mid storm report …

    The snow portion is pretty much done. In most areas the lower ends of the forecast ranges were made, and in some areas it fell a little shy.

    Timeline was off by about 90 minutes. I know that’s not good enough many books, but come do it better – consistently – then we’ll talk. 😉

    Have a good rest of the day everyone. 🙂

  76. This weekend system has an 850 mb low, unlike the one today.

    Seems it allows the western envelope of snow to hang on a bit longer after the sfc low has edged eastward some.

  78. Some very light frz drizzle now here in Coventry and up to 30F. Going with 0.8″ as my final snow/sleet total. Up to 17″ on the season but that number is about to skyrocket 🙂

    No end in sight to the upcoming pattern on the 12z GFS thru 384 hours and beyond. …

  79. Looking at the 12z runs of the EURO CMC GFS a moderate snowfall 4-8 inches 5-10 inches look to happen at this time.

  80. Ride back from Boston was the same pretty easy..WBZ radio already saying major snowstorm this weekend . Some slushy roads here in pembroke I’m guessing under an inch .

  81. Remember how it bothers us to see Mets faulted if they don’t get a forecast to the tenth of an inch and more often when folks misread the forecast. We know how difficult their job is let alone that they have to predict the future. In that regard, Superintendents hold the safety of children in their hands. Parents have dictated that they know the night ahead whether school will be cancelled. I will never fault anyone for erring on the side of caution when it comes to our kids….and the best part is parents get to spend a special day with their kids.

    To folks who clear our roads …..thank you. We count on you. We do not know what is involved in moving snow from hundreds of miles or roads.

    To TK and all of our Mets. You nailed it.

    Not a rant…just facts. And now back to my puzzle.

    1. My issue with this event isn’t with the Mets but with the networks and outlets that make the headlines. The headlines drove the narrative which drove the decisions and it should be the Mets that do this.

      1. Exactly. The headlines are why so many schools were closed today and snow emergencies were put into effect. It’s maddening.

  82. We should just move February break to next week – I could see us easily losing two days next week if forecasts verify. Easy for me to say though- I am not one of the thousands heading off to the tropics for winter break.

  83. Right now, the weekend system is significant and I don’t think its vertically aligned. It looks like the upper support lags a bit to its west.

    Lets watch the next 24-36 hrs, want to see if it becomes better aligned. If it does, I think we can get something even more than being shown.

    Yes, the progressive nature of the pattern wont allow a blockbuster, but if things align a little better, I could see 5-9 turning into 8-12, maybe 10-14

  86. Back in my day if we had an event like this, the only school activity that was cancelled was “outdoor” recess. 😉

      1. They have treated our street and plowed our street. I’m not going out but if it isn’t a skating rink now, it may be soon. Still just under freezing

  90. Just came in.

    It was 32.5, so the snow was wet. Had to use shovel to remove
    0.75 inch. Could there have been a bit of compaction/settling? sure. So what was it .8 or .85 at most??

    RAINING out here. Just light rain, but RAIN it is. NOT sleet.

    1. Been raining here the past couple hours as well. Sloppy mess. Looks like it is finally winding down though.

  91. Not for nothing, even though the EURO provides plenty of snow down the road, it comes with plenty of RAIN on the parade.
    Very early, so who knows, but I don’t like seeing it show up at all.
    It is like the SE ridge is flexing its muscle!!!!! And pushing Northward just a bit too far.

    1. I’d stop short of judging the pattern on an operational model run.

      That ridge is a big reason we have opportunities for snow around here during the next few weeks. WxW, myself, and other mets foresaw this and spoke of it, but we were also very clear on this pattern, not being a repeat of some of the other ones we have been in and a pattern that would include varieties of precipitation as well as snow events.

      Today’s is really the first in the series. I think it’s prudent.We let things play out and then see how the prognostication was. We won’t know until we get to March.

      1. I understand that. I did say it is early yet and also said I don’t like seeing that on any run. So we’ll see how they all look down the road.

  92. I am happy to write that for the first time since I moved to the South Coast on July 1,2022 my area is under a Winter Storm Watch . Potential is for 5-9 inches for Saturday night into Sunday. Now let’s see if that becomes a warning. I hear school closings are already being announced for Monday, LOL!

  93. I slightly underreported the snow and sleet at Reading. 1.4. Right in the middle of the forecast range there.

    Yet I have somebody out there repeating over and over that today was a big dud. WRONG!

    1. I got what I expected. The watery precip probably had an effect on total measured. I must say that I am now a bit concerned with my walk tomorrow on the shore walkway. I’m thinking slick!

    2. That’s why I have urged my city officials and school superintendent to follow this blog. No need for schools to be closed and for a snow emergency today in Amesbury.

  94. TK – your forecast was on the money! I agree with your comment earlier – people are looking too far ahead and expecting all the snow coming in the next two weeks to fall today!

  95. Weak secondary low across SE Mass.

    Can see most winds going light.

    What was a busier SE wind all morning in Marshfield is now calm.

  96. Dave, I wouldnt be concerned about the Euro op run. It is often over amped in the long range. It was even north on the upcoming weekend system just a day or two ago showing a transition to mix/rain and now has transitioned to a southerly/all snow track.

    Just look at the 12z EPS ensemble mean snow thru 360 hours…its pretty much two feet plus for all of SNE. Never seen an ensemble mean run look this good…

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2025_02/IMG_5508.png.ad3dd1b714299d43e0631bf337cfc775.png

    Some of that snow is going to come from systems that are not all snow and are going to have mixing/changeovers involved. No way of getting around that.

  97. Today’s forecast was spot on.

    A few hours of snow, a little sleet, maybe ending as frz drizzle or light rain.

    Not a major event, but roads becoming slippery in any wintery precip.

    Temps struggling to the freezing mark.

    A+ for TK and others.

  99. I just saw my county under a winter storm watch. Second time this winter under a winter storm watch this winter.
    It looks like a 4-8 5-10 snowfall.

  100. Question for TK and Mets in general. Do y’all care about the perception of a bad forecast? I know in your minds u made a good forecast and it mostly verified, but in the court of public opinion, a lot of people aren’t happy and considered todays forecast a flop in some areas that expected and planned for worse conditions. I only ask bc I feel like the profession takes a lot of heat but there doesn’t seem to be an attempt at resolution or common ground (he said she said and line in the sand mentality). On top of that, the media outlets don’t do Mets any favors by owning and sensationalizing the headlines which is what most latch on to.

    1. Obviously not a Met, but the TV outlets make today’s event yesterday’s top story.

      Today’s event ????? More urgent than all the news going on in the world and in the US.

      On last night’s TV newscast, it should have been an extra minute of what they call “happy talk” btwn the anchors and the weatherperson starting at 6:14pm, leading into a 2-3 minute weathercast at 6:15pm.

      It sets a false perception, changing a small event into a larger one.

      1. SO TRUE! I was furious with the news last night.
        They made it sound like it was the 2nd coming of the blizzard
        of 78. GEEZ, give us a break!!!

    2. Resolution? Nobody ever said we were perfect. We are predicting the future, and most of the time we do a pretty damn good job. I can’t help it if a few tenths of an inch of snow forecast did not fall, or fell in the form of sleet because the change over line was a little ahead of our best guess. As I said earlier, the challenge I issue for anyone to jump into our role and do it better, consistently, will never be answered, because it would be a failure every single time.

      There are 2 major issues here…

      First and foremost, news is now “entertainment” for some bizarre reason, and in this race to get ratings and clicks, the meteorologists are put under extreme pressure to hype things up, having to satisfy the bosses to keep the job, while wrestling with how to present the information that they worked really hard to prepare (whether it verifies perfectly or not). I could go on about this, but this is adequate for now.

      Second, there is a difficulty with the general public in understanding the information presented to them. Some of this is on the viewer / listener, but a large part, in my opinion, rests on the problem that is number one, above. Until there is an end in the race to be first, loudest, most dramatic, most colorful, most shocking, etc, etc, this is going to continue.

      Today’s forecast was not a good forecast just in my mind. It was not a perfect forecast by any stretch, but it was actually a pretty decent one. A fast moving system, a minor snowfall (top end potential would have been borderline moderate numbers, which did not occur. But similarly, had I left those out of the forecast, knowing there was only at best a 50/50 that any of them took place, and they did take place, I’d have taken the same shit from people, the people who DON’T get it. There’s really no help for them. They’re going to see / hear what they want, and twist it any way they can to make us seem bad at what we do. I pity them, if this is what they need to do to get their jollies. These folks are always looking for the most marginal errors to jump on, while ignoring the vast majority of the time our forecast results in them seeing exactly what they were told to expect. It goes with the territory of predicting the future to many ungrateful people who take us for granted (even though they will say they don’t).

      One of my colleagues in Maine, in a recent storm, put out her snowfall map for her 6pm forecast (consulted with me, in fact, on the forecast), and she went with 4-8 inches, which BTW, turned out to be ACCURATE. Her boss tore her apart for not having higher #’s and a more dramatic forecast. No lie. The industry is diseased.

      1. With a very deep sigh, I’m uncharacteristically at a loss for words. Exceptional comment. Exceptional truth. Thank you for all you do❤️

      2. Thank you for entertaining the comment TK. No ill intentions on my part here, just trying to find some common ground between mets and us common folk with curious, and yes, sometimes opinionated and critical minds. I don’t envy Mets. You have a really hard job and a huge responsibility to the public as the forecast affects so many people in so many ways. Mel for example today likely lost a days-worth of business due to an overaction to the forecast. Parents who had to stay home with their kids might not have gotten paid for the day off. A self-employed plow driver anticipating a minimum amount of snow only to go home empty for the day. These are just a few examples of why some people react the way they do.

  101. I am under a NWS Winter Storm Watch from 7 PM Saturday until 4 PM Sunday … at least at the moment.

  105. Best part this storm is over long before the Super Bowl kicks off.
    Last time it snowed on Super Bowl Sunday was 2021 when Tom Brady and the Buccaneers beat the Chiefs.

  106. Also, for 1-3 inches, most tv stations bring in 2 Mets for the broadcast, they send a 3rd out in the field, plus like 4 other reporters, one in Worcester, Fitchburg, Scituate or Marshfield and cape cod.

    In the blizzard of 78, it was don Kent for the broadcast and poor Shelby Scott buried I. A snow drift for 30 inches plus of snow.

  107. I have always loved the special feeling as a member of woodshill weather. It is the feeling of family enjoying any weather event. Big or small never mattered….It is weather and that is why we are all here. It’s the fun of waiting to hear JPD say…wow, that was impressive. Or smiling affectionately at his $&#*$&#*#. Or of learning snow totals from around our area. Or of seeing backyard photos. And so much more.

    Today is different. Sadly. We had an event that verified. Was it letter perfect? Shame on anyone who believes it should be – now or ever.

    If someone has the need to cast blame…start with our news media, its corporate heads, and then move to parents who in their court of public opinion insist on knowing the night before an event whether they have to be with their kids…or not.

    TK pours his heart and soul into giving us the very best forecast. Every single day for ten years. He sure as heck doesn’t deserve the nonsense….from a very few which is typically the number that makes up the court of public opinion

    For one….and I know darn well I’m not in the minority….thank you for an exceptional job, TK.

    2. Thank you very much for your support. 🙂

      I do enjoy doing this blog as I have from day 1 back in 2010. It was created for me initially by somebody knowing I’d probably be reluctant to create it myself (or I wasn’t good at making a blog on WordPress – shhhhh).

      There are a few people that support this blog behind the scenes (server, updates, etc). There are also a lot more readers that are lurkers in addition to the regular comment crowd. Many of them are people we watch or hear, many are family members (my entire family sees this pretty much daily), many current coworkers, even family members of coworkers (one of them commented last week). I’m not trying to “win” anything, except maybe the snow contest hahaha, or get a zillion clicks and I’m certainly not in this for ratings (thank goodness). I just love the weather and communicating with people who do, as well as informing people who trust me enough to read the information. No, it’s not always right. That’s never going to happen. But you can be certain that I always give it my best each time.

      Anyway, thank you again. 🙂

      I just shoveled a lot of driveway in a short period of time. My heart let me know it wasn’t happy, but I’m ok. I just need a cup of coffee now. 🙂

    3. Vicki, sorry I ruined your day with my critical but honest commentary and questions. I guess it has to be all rainbows and butterflies and thank yous. I’ll remember that next time I post.

      1. Aren’t you sweet. Odd you assumed I was addressing you. Maybe read again and remember what Felix said about assuming.

    1. We’ll see things like 5-8, 5-9, 4-8, 4-7, 4+, etc.

      People will over-scrutinize them. They’re just forecast maps.

      It’s kind of funny to me watching the general public freak out about exact snow amounts. 🙂 There’s virtually no difference between 4 & 5, between 5 & 6, between 6 & 7.

      Now there is a difference between 4 & 7, but that’s just logic. 🙂

  118. Mark right now I am thinking many parts of CT will see more than a foot by this time next week between these storm systems.

      1. I like a biggie now and then, but my favorite type of winter for snow is multiple smaller events. Keep freshening up the snowcover frequently. 🙂

        It’s also much easier on my heart conditions to move small amounts. I’m not prohibited from doing the work, but too much pushing can toss the heart into irregular rhythms.

  120. Thanks, as always, TK.

    As a met, I do have a lot of thoughts on the above discussion and would love to share them, but this just isn’t the place for it, for me at least. Bottom line up front, relating to what Ace said: at least for me, yes, I care about perception. Not to say I lose sleep over it (maybe for a particularly horrid forecast :P) But more broadly, in terms of how meteorologists are perceived by the public, because I do think that’s very important for the field. And I do think meteorologists have work to do, even though the media is by far the largest culprit. We (mets in general, not here) have to stop being the “bad guy” all the time and better communicate low impact and/or beneficial weather, as well as forecast uncertainty.

    But if I tried to explain my whole perspective here, I’d go on forever. Of course, there are certain people who are flat out trolls or otherwise unreasonable, and they can pound sand. But someone with earnest intentions like I believe Ace is or even SSK, it would make a great topic of discussion around a round or two of your beverage of choice 🙂

    1. Thank you for the comments WxWatcher! I mean no ill intentions to anyone, and I apologize to you and TK and the other pros on here if I came across as such. Just trying to facilitate an honest discussion from a position of curiosity and education. I 1000% respect your profession and wouldn’t even pretend to know how hard it is. We all bring a different perspective here, and my comments are from my personal observations and desire to bridge the gap between the public and mets.

  121. Sweet Lord, 18z GFS. The party continues next Thursday/Friday with another long duration snow event. If this run ever verifies….

  123. Eric hinted at a southerly trend meaning LESS snow. Say it ain’t so. ❄️ 🙁

    He merely showed 2 possible tracks, so no need to panic…yet. Not a forecast by any means.

    At least a more northerly track is off the table I assume since he didn’t show it.

  125. I would be happy with foot of snow .
    All I could say from the happy hour run and the EPS run you posted earlier Mark WOW!!!

  126. But wait, there’s MORE! Gearing up for a major East Coast storm next weekend.

    Yes sir may I have another, yes sir may I have another…… 🙂

  131. LOL!!!
    There was a 12z GFS run back in December that showed 30-50 across southern NJ and the NJ shore for one snowstorm. It probably will not be right but the GFS provides great entertainment.

        1. It is on the wbz website. Diamond, absolute truth. I have goosebumps and happy tears. What a charming and humble young man. Sure made my day

    1. Tack a few more inches onto those totals…it develops another coastal storm near the end of its run but its a little too warm with a changeover to rain.

      A run for the ages.

      And nice to see consistent ensemble support as well.

    2. Now divide by 2 and your all set for 15-20” over the next 2 weeks which is probably a reasonable expectation in an active pattern with nearby cold very close in Canada.

      1. I dunno Tom…that might be a bit low. Even the GFS and Euro ensemble means deliver around two feet of snow over the next two weeks. Strong signal.

        1. Agreed. And we could well get that.

          I guess for me it’s setting some amount where I won’t get disappointed.

          15-20” is a lot in 2 weeks and that way, if we do get 24” or more, I’m elated. Conversely, if I set my expectation at 28-35” and we get say, 20”, now I stand a chance at being disappointed. Crazy logic, I know.

          1. I thought you didnt like a lot of snow?? You were posting Florida temps earlier, lol.

            I am actually the same way. I set a minimum snow amount that I would be satisfied with (usually it is near the low end of the forecast range) and then root for more. If you are only rooting for the high end of range (like one certain individual I can think of on this blog), you will never be satisfied 🙂

            1. I have a love/hate relationship with it.

              I love watching it snow and love snow on the ground.

              I hate the impact it can have. Or the annoyance of cleaning the car. And I do like getting away in winter for a break from it.

              Up until my early, I only loved it. Couldn’t snow enough. But working and aging have changed it to a love/hate thing now.

  135. I just reviewed the entire 18Z GFS run. I’d be very surprised IF
    all of that verified, but it is encouraging to see the line up of system after system. There is some support from the Euro
    and the CMC, so let’s see how the weekend storm pans out and go from there. 🙂

    1. It won’t all verify as depicted, but the take-away is the pattern that us mets have outlined is here. Yes it took a while to get established. I actually think the MJO had more to do with it than I originally thought it would. And in my meteorological opinion, we are far from free of the HTE – and will remain vulnerable to it for some time to come. We don’t just spew that much water into the statosphere and pretend it’s not there. 😉

  136. Thanks again Tk for all that you do. I was so happy with the easy commute in & out of Boston today & especially because I’ve been very sick all week , so getting back home fast was great & the cleanup at home was quick . I have not seen to much weather this week but could any rain factor in with Sundays event throughout the south shore . Thank you .

    2. SSK…only chance of mix/rain is extreme South Coast/Cape & Islands. You’re all set for snow. If anything a more southern trend would bring less snow. ❄️

      2. Oops thanks. I totally didn’t answer the other question. So exhausted today, which was a drain mentally and physically.

  137. No snow day for Halifax kids today but the elementary kids get an unexpected day off tomorrow due to a possible norovirus outbreak. There were 110 kids out today as well as 15 staff and 21 more kids sent home during the day.

    2. So much going around . I started with a Mild cough on Sunday & it went down hill from there & I’m still sick

      2. I have heard a lot of that too. And it is really bad. Hope you and your mom and wife all feel better soon

      1. Looking at Hartford as an example, these three models are predicting 7.7, 7.9, and 8.0 inches of snow for Sunday. Pretty darn consistent.

  140. I get the impression that while the frequency of the systems will be similar to 2015, the duration will not therefore will be fast moving dropping no more than several inches of snow in a few hours. In 2015 iirc the storms were frequent but longer duration dropping 1-2+ feet at a time.

    1. Definitely not 2015 repeat.

      That pattern was more amplified and even more locked in than this one.

      And all of it with a +NAO.

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