Friday February 7 2025 Forecast (7:09AM)

250 Comments

REVIEW / COMMENTARY

A quick review on yesterday’s event, forecast to be generally a 1 to 3 inch snowfall (less South Coast) with some sleet and ending as some rain / ice. Timeline was a little quicker with both the onset of snow and even more so with the advance of warming aloft, with the snowfall amounts generally 1/2 to 2 inches in the “main” area, an error of about 1/2 to 1 inch in any given location. This leads me to the commentary. Across the net, the criticism was over the top. It’s apparent to me that the majority of the population continues to focus on top numbers in ranges and also fail to remember that forecasts are predictions of the future. They also are failing to remember that predicting snowfall to the nearest inch is about the same as predicting rainfall to the nearest tenth of an inch, in general. These are things that obviously need to be spelled out in detail so that those who forget these basic facts so easily can be re-spoon-fed the information before they jump all over the forecasters for being “wrong” about something that likely had very little impact on their overall plans. And even if it did. Oh well, it’s a prediction, not a guarantee. And despite what many people might think, we’re still correct far more often than we’re not. Criticism is one thing, but uneducated / unfair criticism is another thing entirely, and I will defend my colleagues each and every time against anyone and everyone that I have to. 🙂 So now, before I get to my expectations / predictions for the coming five day period, I’ll start with this reminder. These are my best ideas for the upcoming weather, based on my interpretation of the information available at the time of this writing. My advice is to check back for updates, since it should go without saying that predictions for a time further away from t = zero (where ‘t’ is time from now and ‘zero’ = now) have generally more error the further away from ‘t=zero’ you get. This is pretty much easy logic, but often seems lost on many people. Not sure why.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 7-11)

High pressure builds toward our region today, but the pressure difference between it and a low pressure area in eastern Canada will create a gusty breeze. The moving air and low dew point will help improve ground conditions (melting and/or drying snow / ice from the recent event). High pressure moves over the region tonight and early Saturday with fair, seasonably chilly, more tranquil weather as winds drop off. But in the active pattern we’re in, the next low pressure system heads our way as the weekend goes on. The next system takes a track further south than its predecessor, but is also a slightly more potent system. The track to the south allows the cold air to stay locked in so that other than some potential mixing along the South Coast, the coming event Saturday night into Sunday will be generally a straight snow event. Despite the decent potential for a slug of moderate to heavy snow (intensity), the quick movement of the system will be a slight limiting factor for potential snowfall accumulation across the region, making it more likely a moderate snowfall, in general, for the region. A small southward jog in the track would result in lower amounts in southern NH and northern MA with more from the I-90 belt to the South Coast, while a slightly northward shift would introduce more mixing and lower snow amounts in the South Coast region with widespread significant snow accumulation elsewhere. This forecast plays the middle ground and leaves room for adjustment in either direction on the next update, if necessary. Beyond the weekend event, we get a break in the weather on Monday with an area of high pressure moving in. But as the pattern is active, the next low pressure impact threat comes at some point Tuesday, likely late-day and night – details TBD, but leaning toward a system tracking to the south some some snow for our region.

TODAY: Cloud/sun mix trending to more sun. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 16-23. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 27-34. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow arrives west to east. Lows 20-27. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Overcast through midday with snow, except a possible mix South Coast. Expected snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches for most of the region, with areas of under 5 inches possible in southern NH and far northern MA with any southerly track shift, as well as along the South Coast if any mixing occurs. Partial clearing mid to late afternoon with breaks of sun. Highs 28-35. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW with higher gusts late-day.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusty.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusty.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22. Diminishing NW wind.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow late. Highs 28-35. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 12-16)

Storm system impact potential early February 12, February 13, and later February 15 into February 16, based on current expected timing of systems. All of these have the potential to include frozen precipitation or a variety. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 17-21)

Temperatures variable but averaging near to below normal for the period. Pattern remains active with two potential precipitation events.

250 thoughts on “Friday February 7 2025 Forecast (7:09AM)”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK

    The prolific snows portrayed by the gfs and the euro have come back down to more reasonable amounts.
    14-16 day amounts of over 30 inches are now down to 15-18 inches or so. Very possible in this pattern. Will be watching for more changes to this.

    Tomorrow night sure looks like a moderate event. We shall see as it unfolds.

    1. Mets like myself and others always caution about those amounts on those models so far in advance, and we also explain why. But they still get posted by non-mets all over social media as gospel. That’s the problem.

      No matter how many times we tell them, they’ll do it anyway, and then WE will shoulder the blame for being “wrong”.

      2. Yep, in my community I tell people that random people who are never around throughout the year can and will crop up and post the model runs with zero knowledge of meteorology and to ignore it and report it. The messaging has thankfully worked for my community as people were commenting making fun of the person for posting the most juiced up model runs with zero explanation. But that’s a little walled garden – I feel bad for real meteorologists for the annoyances and lay people for the gullibility at large.

  5. NWS has 8-12” to include Boston now! ❄️

    So hopefully it won’t come down to Logan being short by tenths (5.8, 5.9) of an inch. I am tired of counting too JPD. 🙂

    3. Thank you for posting! He loves his scouting and will continue to work with the program. His goal is to give back to scouting and help to get as many youth as possible to join so the can have the experience.

  10. Thanks TK.

    A non met posting a 384 hour snowmap? I can’t imagine what idiot would ever do such a thing 🙂

    Models all still looking good for 6-9” Sunday. Even the NAM has a general 6” for most.

    As Dave noted, while the 18z GFS yesterday showed what happened if every upcoming threat ended up a hit, the 6z GFS shows the result when each ends up a miss. I’m sure the result probably lies somewhere in between. It’s impossible to know with high confidence what is going to come of the threats 5+ days out given the very fast flow and the fact that the pieces of energy responsible for those longer term threats are halfway across the globe. Not to mention, what actually materializes with each storm ends up affecting the evolution of the next. Our storm for this weekend isn’t even formed yet.

    1. Agree. We’ll see what happens and it will be fun to watch.
      We’re likely to come out pretty well in the snow department
      when all is said and done.
      Time will tell. First things first, this weekend…..

  11. Walked the shore and it was the most slippery day I have ever walked in the last 5 years. Had to get off walkway and onto the grass. Had a hard time getting the car back up my hill to my home. Be careful out there!

  12. The ensemble runs…00z EPS and 6z GEFS still look great for snow threats beyond Sunday moving forward. Some nice hits in there. The operational runs are going to continue to do their thing and fluctuate run to run.

  13. There is somewhat of a difference in snow maps for Sat-Sun. I think I saw 4-7″ somewhere and the current NWS map of 8-12.” There is TK’s 5-9″ also. I assume these differences, though not necessarily great, are due to projected tracks and storm speed.

    When I walk tomorrow, I know all of the regulars are going to say … “so we’re getting a foot of snow, huh!” I don’t know if I have the energy to correct them all. I’ll just tell it’s more like 18.”

    1. personally and for what it is worth, I think the 8-12 is too high at the moment. Obviously subject to change, but things currently don’t point to snow totals that high, imho.

  14. Thank you TK!

    Grateful that today is storm-free as my church hosts our Night to Shine prom tonight. A much anticipated annual event for our special needs community. Can’t wait to see all of the smiles on our guests.

    1. It’s the colors on the NWS map that is confusing everyone. We’re in the orange which the range is 8-12 but the numbers written in for Boston is 6-9

  17. Thanks TK! My sense is those who are giving the over the top criticism are probably the same ones who jumped the gun and closed schools the night before a 1-3 inch storm which was still even questionable at that point being that there was uncertainty about how much mixing would occur and when. They have a dramatic reaction on both ends (didn’t pan out the way they wanted so it’s the weather persons fault!) – I am glad this group contains fairly more reasonable people who know that most of life is living in the gray and not being either on the black or white side. Keep forecasting the way you are and I agree these social media wanna be Mets are not helping because they always highlight the extreme potential which gets everyone revved up and ultimately disappointed

    1. Reminder, Jimmy, that the parents.. far from the majority but the loudest….are the ones who have pushed school committees and ultimately the superintendents to announce the night ahead. Although in and around my area, the call was absolutely justified. Roads were not good because of the timing of the storm.

  18. I completely agree with your comments TK, and I appreciate the amazing challenges faced by you and others in your field.

    I wonder if the issues are exaggerated for smaller storms like we’ve had over and over this season. If a prediction is 4-6 and the result is 2, some people might think “Wow – only 1/2 to 1/3 of what was predicted.” But a prediction of 14-16 with a result of 12 leads to “Nice – pretty much nailed it!”

    It comers down to thinking in terms of absolute difference or percentage difference. Kind of like the Bruins losing 3-1 versus the Celtics losing 113-111 🙂

    Thanks for all you do for us here!

      1. I don’t know what’s happened but I did send them a message on twitter notifying them. Not sure how well funded they are now or will be in the future… but thankful mistakes like this don’t happen too often.

    2. May be trying to compare apples and oranges here.

      One has experimental above it and one does not.

      So, maybe the one on the right is an experimental blend from data and the one on the left is the mets expectations.

      1. I don’t know that I’ve ever seen a variation between the two but perhaps you’re right. I’ll let you know if they say this is the case if they reply on twitter. (They rarely engage in replies.)

  21. So which NWS map is correct?

    Frankly, 8-12” seems way too high anyway. I only posted it here this morning because that’s what I found on their website. Yesterday that amount was focused well N/W.

    1. They are bound by the fixed color scale.

      8-12 color band has all point forecasts that are 8 or 9. Technically, they’re using the right band, but people are looking at the range, then seeing only the top number.

    2. I went to the NWS site again and the 8-12” is still there. I’ll ignore it for now but what to do in the future? Does NWS typically post 2 different amounts?

  22. I suppose the NAM solution is possible.

    There should be strong lift and heavy precip north of the low track.

    I suppose just north of all that rising air, there could be some subsidence (sinking air) in a band north of the heavy precip.

    I think its a little bit overdone though. I think duration of the event and as an 850mb low develops as the system gets to about Nantucket, that should keep the western edge of the snow hanging on for a while, so even in the potential subsidence zone, they have plenty of opportunity to hit the 5 to 6 mark in TK’s 5-9 totals.

    1. Yes, because it simulates the developing 850 mb low up over land in SE Mass and then must briefly moderate somewhere aloft for a little sleet at the end. I believe its features are a bit too far north.

  24. Do we think Boston & here on the south shore can stay mix free , mix for cape only .

    1. I dont want that to happen but the way this winter has been it would be fitting along with frustrating

  28. On all 12z models, notice the difference btwn the 10:1 snow projections and the kuchera.

    North central New England has a very cold column in this next system at all levels. And so, .3 or so melted might get them 4-7 inches.

    Headed south, the column in all levels is just a tiny bit milder and so, .5 to .6 melted is needed for 5-7 inches.

    I think TK’s uniform 5-9 inches regionwide is perfect for this reason and that areas north will pile up quickly due to the fluff factor.

    1. Someone mentioned funding above. I believe DOGE may have IT access now. Hopefully, this is a blip and not a sign of things to come.

      1. !@)(#*()!@*#)(!@U)*(#$YI!@ERU(IU@YR(*@Y#(*$(@*#$&(*~@&#$(*&~!)@#$(&!_@#$*(&!@($&*!&$)!*)($&*!*$@&!)(@*$)(!_*$()!*@$(*!)(@$*)(!*@$)(!*@$)(*!)($*)!(*$)(!*$@)(*!)@$

  34. I’m down here in central Florida. I’m so glad I’m down here and not worrying about slipping and falling like I did four years ago and sustaining a fractured ankle with twelve screws and a titanium plate. The upcoming storm is still fun to watch from afar down here.I still have to come back to RI late next week.

  37. Thanks, TK.

    I drove through a snow flurry in Lexington an hour an hour and a half ago, and now it’s brilliant sunshine for the return.

          2. That’s one bet I hope I lose! BUT, this winter has consistently delivered the under regardless of pattern, so I gotta go with the hot hand.

            1. I understand your premise, but I respectfully disagree with it.

              The one before Christmas gave Boston and its southwest suburbs 4-6 inches of snow, when they were expecting up to 2 inches.

              The others, I feel have met expectations.

              Yes, yesterday fell short in most areas.

  40. SPC is going to start getting busy with severe weather, as the sun strengthens ….. if we keep getting disturbances crossing the lower Ohio Valley, with cold fronts pushing into warm/humid airmasses in the south.

    1. What do you think down here for us Tom . Do you think we have shot a decent storm as it’s been awhile

    2. I don’t have X so can’t see the comments (when it was Twitter I could). Question is, how long does this band set up shop. Things are going to be moving so quickly.

      1. Not a fan of twitter now. As with 128, the Gulf of Mexico, etc, I won’t call it the other name. I think more are starting to focus on Bluesky….i hope

        1. From what I’ve seen, Bluesky is basically Twitter/X. We need fewer social media platforms, not more

      1. It’s an older tweet. I’m not seeing a lot of recent tweets by the local Mets I follow. I’m wondering if they are off today and working tomorrow.

    3. Thank you SAK.
      I was wondering when someone would post 4-8 inches. 🙂
      I generally hate that range, however, with some differences in
      the models, 4-8 inches sounds perfect. 🙂

      1. I hate that range too b/c it’s on either side of winter storm warning criteria. I can guarantee (probably from me, lol) that if we get 4 or 5″ we won’t realize the criteria.

        1. I hate it because I would prefer to see a smaller range.
          Give me 4-6 or 6-8, but not 4-8. However, under certain circumstances (and this next one looks to qualify), I can understand that larger range perfectly.

  47. I don’t post much during these hyper active periods because I am too lazy to scroll through all the posts….

    Quick Thoughts –

    Yesterday NAM did well eith precip amounts and HRRR with temperatures. Past performance does not indicate future returns…However, I assure you the NAMs are not obsolete.

    Saturday night into Sunday I think we all went a general 6″ snowfall and areas that generally favor higher totals and the areas that tend to come in lower during benchmark storms would be a fine forecast…(That means SE Mass and western valley locations on the lower end and elevated areas of NW RI and NW of Boston on the higher end)

    Beyond that the snow depth and positive change maps will continue to help you more than the 10:1 and Kachera or Cobb maps when it comes to areal impact.

    Also, if could punt the GFS and GGEM )to the moon, I would be happy.

      2. Sorry for the typos (too fast on the keyboard), and Salty, (you will always be Old Salty to me) enjoy the snow (how ever much it is) and you if you can and want, fishing season isn’t far away.

        2. Thanks JMA. You are correct. The Dept of Fish and Game
          will start stocking trout soon, depending on weather and conditions. Where I fish, it generally gets stocked somewhere between March 25th and Aprtil 7th.

          Getting to the point where I am getting too old to go out fishing. I already have to limit my locations to where I am less likely to take a fall. ie no rocks and/or sharp inclines.

          1. Find a young man or woman to go with you and be your stepping eye dog…teach them how to fish. I was invited to ice fish tomorrow, but had to decline, as I have a late in life failing mother who I need to be with during the day tomorrow.

    2. So, if we’re going to blend the NAM/EURO/UKMET, 6″ appears to be the ceiling for Boston, at least from today’s runs, and shift things south a bit.

      1. I’d be surprised in Boston came in over 6 inches. 🙂
        Like I said earlier: 5.8 for Logan. I think the no 6inch snow storm streak will continue. We shall see. 🙂

  48. Thanks TK. Totally agree with your forecast. Famous last words, but, this should be a relatively “easy” forecast as far as winter storms are concerned. Models in good agreement. A basic west to east moving wave of low pressure. Not much concern about ptype away from the south coast. Not much apparent potential for QPF to come in either dramatically above or below expectations. If anything, with the overnight timing and with it being an amplifying wave with good fgen forcing, I might lean towards more 7’s and 8’s versus 5’s and 6’s, but it’s splitting hairs at that point, it’ll probably be fairly homogenous over much of SNE 🙂

    1. Simply pur?, it’s a 6 inch storm. If it’s 4 inches or 8 inches the general population can choose to either shoot me or stab me because obviously it was an egregious error.

  49. FWIW, the 18Z NAM is coming in a few Mbs more intense than
    12Z run and a bit farther North. Translation: More Snow

    1. Also don’t know IF it will really happen, but it keeps the snow hanging back for some time.

  51. Ideally I would love to see Boston (Logan) come in at at least 7 inches to put the count (1,078) to bed after Sunday. ❄️

    As I mentioned in previous blogs, here in Quincy received exactly 6 inches on MLK Weekend while Boston at 5 inches. Somewhat surprising that Quincy got more snow than Boston. It’s usually the other way around. Oh well. 🙂

  52. WXW – you wrote a poignant, if truncated piece on the vilification of meteorology as a science and more directly meteorologists. I very much appreciated it.

    Models will vary, but as written, this is a 6″ event. One of the reasons I don’t like broad ranges, if I write 4-8, people only hear 8, and 5-10, only 10 is remembered, 6-12, only a foot of snow or bust. The actual differential in impact between 4 and 8 is negligible. People who have been here a whilE know I was always big on the 2″ range if it was reasonable to provide.

    1. I do totally agree about what people hear, but that’s on them.

      At work today I said to somebody that my current call for the region is 5 to 9 inches. The response: So we’re getting 9 inches? My reply: Maybe. Maybe not. 😉

    2. Thanks JMA. I think that’s really well put. Once again, my thoughts are many, but I won’t dip my toes in too far.

      It’s a two-way street. And of course, the media is a major factor. Nonetheless, people need to become more weather-literate. To not take medium and longer range forecasts out of context. To not obsess over snow amounts down to the inch. To recognize that the weather in your backyard is not the same as every backyard in a given area.

      But as mets, we could do with being more transparent about the bad forecasts, and I think more importantly, media hype train be damned, to do better in conveying the low impact nature of low impact events, the routine nature of routine events, and the beneficial nature of beneficial events. Because most weather does fall into those categories! And if you can build trust there, it goes a long way with the real higher impact and non-routine events.

  53. For a general 6 inch storm, a 4-8 inch range is perfect, especially in a situation where it’s not heavy/wet snow.

    Let me put it this way, how much melted precipitation difference do you need to have 6 vs. 4, or 8 vs. 6? As I said in my commentary, these snowfall ranges when you take melted into account are pretty damn detailed. It’s funny that nobody seems to be too upset when we say 2 to 4 inches of rain. Imagine if we said 20 to 40 inches of snow for a forecast. HAHAHA ……….

    Put yourself in our shoes, on a daily basis, and then add it as a profession – doing it for people who pay you to be as accurate as possible. I guarantee you a lot of the tunes being sung would be a lot different. 😉

    1. “For the next storm, I expect 0.60 to 0.80 inch of precipitation.”

      0.20 inch melted range. Ya, no.

      1. Interesting take and I see what you are doing here.
        I get it. Depending on ratios and locations, kind of fits
        your 5-9 inch range. 🙂

        I still don’t like a range that large, but I get it and understand. 🙂

        Good one TK.

        1. I don’t like large ranges when they’re not necessary. But when they are, they get used.

          My other good example I brought up recently – totally different kind of set-up though – was that one where the snow went from virtually nothing (under 2 inches) to over 20 inches over a TEN MILE stretch of land in Essex County.

          If we somehow could forecast that exactly right, imagine how laughed at we’d be for posting something like “Snow accumulation a coating to 2 inches east of Route 1, 2 to 12 inches right along Route 1, and 12 to 24 inches west of Route 1.” Because if somebody was good enough to have seen that, this forecast statement would have been spot on. 😉

  57. The public wants to hear what it wants to hear. The top of the range will be the quoted number. The wind chill number becomes the forecasted temperature. The wind gust number becomes the sustained wind speed. The wave height number is always quoted as the highest number in the range. Etc.

    Some of it occurs because people like big numbers when it comes to weather. But there is a piece of this that bothers me. There are TV mets who at times do not frame things up in the right way. They hype it because they are encouraged to do so but at times they are totally misleading the public through their CHOICE OF WORDS.

    BTW, CH7 just now is at 5-8″ which is pretty much where they have been.

    1. Oh so true and If I see the DAMN wind chill numbers on
      a routine typical Winter’s Day I will scream so loud you
      will hear me all over the state!!!! Geez!! GIMMIE A BREAK!!!!

    2. Most of those mets, especially in this market, are only doing so because they’re instructed to by “the boss” – you know, the person who knows it all. 😉

      1. That is something important to remember. And I can think of one that may have been ousted because he could not bend totally to the dictates. But it’s not only with Mets. The few often force dictates because they make the most noise

      1. This type of kind of flat low, west-to-east, no big complication kind of set-up is usually handled well by most of the guidance from here on. If you see something erratic, it’s likely a model error.

        A drastic shift in the track / amounts now, while not impossible, would be unlikely.

      2. What is it with the Canadian models both showing major orographic impacts with the snow totals? This isnt a spring storm.

          1. Hahaha!!! Yup.

            That model was actually performing quite a bit better just last winter and especially the year before that. What did they do to it?

            1. There were a couple of winters in 2009-2014 range the GGEM / GGEM ENS were my go to prognosticators for choice.

          2. As I wrote earlier, those areas that usually get more snow will do better than 6″ the areas that don’t will do less (like my backyard) so even though all those Canadian and GFS snow maps showed be banned from the internet-ha!

  59. Winter Storm Watches upgraded to Warnings in CT for Litchfield County and the southern half of the state. NWS Albany going 6-10″ for NW CT and the Berks while NWS Upton going 5-7″ for southern CT.

    Norton hasnt upgraded to warnings yet but assume they will shortly.

    1. A certain time distance before the event. They will upgrade. Some eeople will complain. But these are the ones who don’t understand the criteria used.

      If an accumulation FORECAST has any part of the region (county) in a range that even includes the lower limit of the definition for a winter storm warning, they will issue it, and then explain in the text. Again it’s on people to educate themselves about this stuff. Most people out there won’t bother, as you know. 🙂

    1. The Kuchera is likely too high on this. While it won’t be perfectly 10:1 regionwide, the 10:1 map is a better representation on this particular piece of guidance for this set-up and temperature profile. The most realistic representation for the GFS would be a blend of the 10:1 and the Positive Snow Depth Change forecasts.

  62. Thoughts on driving from Natick to Providence leaving around 10:00 AM on Sunday? Yay or nay? My daughter wants to see the Uconn women play hoops and they’re playing in Providence at noon….

    1. I’m wondering if that game might be delayed or rescheduled. But if it is on, I don’t think the drive is impossible, since most of the snow falls during the overnight. You’d just need a cleanup and maybe allow some extra time.

  63. According to Eric, onset of precipitation has been moved up by 1 hour, if it really matters that much.

    1. Not really. Even 24 hours out, the start and end times have potential errors of up to a couple hours, even a few hours in some cases.

      First flakes in Boston, 9 p.m.

      1. Sounds good to me — I expect to be driving out of Boston sometime between 9:30 and 10:30 (without any control over the actual time), so I’d prefer that it not start snowing early in the evening.

  64. Let’s do a fun little poll on whether or not Boston breaks the 6-inch snowfall drought by guessing to the nearest tenth inch the amount Logan will receive in the next event. I’ll start…

    6.3 inches.

  65. 18z GFS after this weekend…..

    -Tuesday: Miss to the south

    -Thursday: 1-3″ of snow interior areas to mix to rain

    -Next Weekend: 12-16″ major snowstorm

    1. That GFS will show us many moods in the days to come regarding all those… 🙂

        1. After all the guesses are in, we’re going to do a group average, and then see how close that ends up to the final total as well.

          1. Ok. I’ll figure how to do that with my Apple numbers. It’s easy with excel as I have that mastered but I love learning new things.

  71. Watching BC vs UNH hockey. BC is #1 team in their league. Tonight it’s 0-0 more than halfway through the 1st. Unusual for BC not to have a goal yet.

    It’s BC bs BU in Beanpot final Monday night.

        1. Hahaha. I am trying to figure out SClarkes guess above. I want to say 6.0 but figured you’d know

          1. Hahahaha. I’d never heard of a cubit until now. Converts to 5 and 27/32 inches or 5.9, so yes, 6 is good too 🙂

            2. Cubit was on jeopardy this week. It was used to measures the ark. I remember that from Sunday school but the rest has my head spinning. Or is that the manhattan I am partway through?

  76. Should we look into the fact the winter storm watch hasn’t been switched to a warning yet?

  77. The NWS map is now back to 6-8” for Boston south. It should have remained there in the first place.

    NWS imo has really gone downhill over the years.

        1. DOGE is hacking into its IT system. There is a discussion of privatizing it. And the same person who used a marker to Change the track of hurricane Dorian to suit Trump is the pick for head of noaa

    2. Given the uncertainty with
      how this dry slot will impact totals, we decided to wait
      another forecast cycle. A Winter Storm Watch is still in effect
      for southern New England and there is a good chance that most
      areas will be upgraded to a Warning.

      From 5pm discussion.

      1. Forecasters had earlier mentioned that they felt it wasn’t a slam dunk that warning criteria was met. They listed things working for a warning criteria and a few things against, one being the dry slot.

        With that uncertainty, they just want one more cycle which is probably the pre sunrise package, at which point they’ll have the 00z data.

        My opinion is overall, they do a really good job. Entire region, they forecast for the coastal waters, they have more specific point forecasts, pretty big set of responsibilities.

  78. I’m feeling good going over 7” at Logan.

    The Nam’s were asleep earlier today at 12z, they lost whatever fouled up that run and have, what I feel is a better run ongoing at 00z.

  82. 12z and 18z gfs were .6-.7 and .8 melted respectively.

    If the 00z gfs comes in again at those values or maybe a little higher, then the higher numbers in 5-9 are really in play.

  85. This is an example of METEOROLOGY. I say this over, and over, across the internet in weather circles, only to have it fall on ignorant ears, but I post here give a great example and an opportunity to share.

    Forecasting the weather is far more than just repeating what “the models” say. Ok? We started trying to predict the weather long before we had computers to help. That required raw science: Observation, prediction, more observation. Learning. The scientific method.

    It seems now these days, more than ever, I have to defend this science and profession against the ignorant, and when it should be getting better, it’s getting worse. The disrespect, unwillingness to learn, and all of it. It’s sad to see, really. Let’s just expect the weather forecast to be perfect then tear apart the forecaster as soon as the tiniest error is perceived. Oh, if the tables were turned, and the ignorant people were surrounded by weather people calling out their every little miscue. 😉

    So back to my original statement, about this being an example of meteorology, in regards to when to upgrade to winter storm warning…

    From NWS Norton: “Saturday Night and Sunday:

    A mid-level shortwave trough and a surface low tracking up east
    coast will provide the favorable synoptic forcing for large-scale
    precipitation. Latest model guidance hasn`t changed too much overall
    with the track of the surface low across the 70/40 benchmark with
    only some subtle northward trends in guidance. With plenty of cold
    air to start, this puts us in a good place for snowfall.

    In terms of timing we will see snow arriving generally from west to
    east in the 6-10 PM timeframe. Other than large scale dynamics to
    support lift for snow, we will also have frontogenetical forcing as
    the warm front shifts across the region Saturday night. Model
    soundings show a deep moisture coupled with positive omega fields in
    the dendritic growth zone. All good signals for efficient snow
    making which will lead to a period of moderate to heavy snow rates
    late Saturday night through early Sunday morning (~10pm-3am). This
    leave a 4-5 hour period for better snow rates to accumulate snow
    quickly.

    However, this is not a “slam dunk” warning criteria event. There are
    some limiting factors here. As the surface low tracks northeast into
    early Sunday morning, it brings a dry slot. This has been quite
    evident in the mid and upper level RH fields. This will cut off the
    deeper moisture, especially in the dendritic zone. As this dry slot
    advances northward after 1-2 AM, the higher snow ratios and rates
    will drop off. Model soundings reflect this issue with BUFKIT NAM
    soundings showing warm air moving in aloft (close to slightly above
    0C) and a layer of dry air above it. There is still omega in the
    lower levels (not in DGZ) to support light precipitation. Depending
    on how deep the below freezing layer is, this may support freezing
    drizzle or snizzle on developing from south to north and the
    backside of the storm early Sunday morning. If this moves in
    quicker, this could impact snow totals. This is what wavers the
    confidence in our snow totals. As the low lifts northeast, we will
    get some wrap around across northern MA as winds transition north to
    northwest 6-9 am. Could also get ocean enhancement as well given the
    wind direction. Precipitation should come to and end from southwest
    to northeast by early afternoon.

    As for totals, ensemble mean QPF ranges from 0.4-0.7″. Deterministic
    models like the NAM are on the lighter end of guidance. Ensembles
    have been interesting as far as highlighting potential areas for
    higher totals with the ECMWF highlighting higher probabilities
    (50- 70%) for 6″+ across the south coast and the SE MA while the
    GEFS shows that axis for higher probabilities in north MA. The
    ECMWF is likely hinting at a strong frontogenetical band owing
    to potentially higher totals while the GEFS is highlighting the
    combination of banding as well as an environment impacted by the
    dry slotting less. A blend of guidance brings a general
    widespread 4-8″ across southern New England, so high-end
    advisory to low end warning criteria. Given the uncertainty with
    how this dry slot will impact totals, we decided to wait
    another forecast cycle. A Winter Storm Watch is still in effect
    for southern New England and there is a good chance that most
    areas will be upgraded to a Warning.”

  86. Good morning!

    23F, clear skies, and no wind to speak of at the moment. Thinking I’ll reach 33F for my high today.

  87. Quick peak at the 12z HRRR it brings the mix area near Boston by 5am tomorrow morning. Out to lunch or on to something???

    1. Overdoing the mid level dry slot somewhat, and even with that, the entire region is basically already at 4-8 inches of snowfall prior to that time frame.

      1. Not really “onto” something. This has been in the guidance for a while. It’s just an over-forecasting of it in terms of how far north the impact gets, and as I said, 4-8 is already on the ground anyway.

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