Saturday February 8 2025 Forecast (8:28AM)

341 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 8-12)

The next storm system in a series is on the way for tonight into Sunday. This one is a quick-moving low pressure area with a solid area of precipitation and cold enough air for mainly snow across the region. A dry slot at mid levels of the atmosphere will lighten up the precipitation in the South Coast region, where some sleet to even freezing drizzle can occur for a few hours mid storm, after which the snow area will move back in for the last several hours of it. To the north, a steadier snowfall will occur for the storm’s duration, with one band of heavier snow possible for a few hours as well. It all tapers off and ends from west to east as low pressure starts to pull away midday Sunday, leaving us with partial clearing / breaks of sun later Sunday. High pressure brings fair weather to the region during Monday. The next low pressure system to watch threatens more snow late Tuesday and early Wednesday, but the trend on this one has been south, so the greatest chance for what looks like a lighter snowfall is in the South Coast region, but this system’s track is not set in stone, so monitor for changes.

TODAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 27-34. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Snow arrives west to east, may fall heavily for a while. Significant chance for a tapering of snow and a flip to sleet / drizzle South Coast region for a while overnight. Lows 20-27 except steady 27-34 South Coast (warmest Nantucket). Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Overcast through midday with snow, except a possible mix South Coast early before going back to snow. Storm snowfall accumulation a general 4 to 8 inches regionwide except 2 to 4 inches Cape Cod / Islands / immediate South Coast. Breaking clouds / partial sun later in the day. Highs 28-35. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusty.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusty.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22. Diminishing NW wind.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of snow, favoring the South Coast region. Lows 20-27. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow South Coast region early. Chance of snow all areas at night. Highs 28-35. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 13-17)

Storm impact February 13 with the potential for a variety of precipitation, depending on the track of the storm – to be fine-tuned over the next few days. A break February 14 with high pressure bringing fair weather. Next round of wintry weather arrives on the February 15-17 extended weekend, timing and details TBD. Overall temperatures near to below normal, but somewhat variable with passing storm systems.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 18-22)

Temperatures variable but averaging near to below normal for the period. Pattern remains active one or two potential precipitation events.

341 thoughts on “Saturday February 8 2025 Forecast (8:28AM)”

  2. Do you know which parts of Middlesex county will see the higher end of your predication of 4-8 inches? What about places along north coast of Boston or cities/towns outside of Boston (Melrose)?

    1. Hard to pinpoint exactly where the higher end would occur, the wildcard being a heavier synoptic band that may exist within the snow area. If I had to make an educated guess, I’d say that the greatest shot of someone hitting 8 is Essex County (Gloucester, Peabody, etc.), maybe somewhere in the Merrimack Valley (Lowell, Lawrence), and possibly a higher elevation spot like Fitchburgh. The further north, the more “fluff factor” there is, but get too far north, and you end up too far away from the heavier snowfall, so there’s a fine line there between “help” and “not help”. 🙂

      Melrose / Malden area I’m going to predict gets right around 6.

  3. Good morning and thank you TK
    Watching closely Awsiting 22z results.

    nws snow map back down to 6-8 inches.

    When I reviewd 6z data, Myvthought was 6-10 inches, allowing for range of model outcomes.

    Not changing my guess for Logan, even now knowing my guess may be a bit low. we shall see

    1. Did you look at the point forecasts yesterday? NWS has only made about a one-inch adjustment for Logan in the last 24 hours, despite the map shenanigans. I do think they need to re-think those standardized color ranges and make it more adaptable storm-by-storm.

        1. For a system like this, it will help bring the ranges into focus. I wrote lots about this yesterday.

          I don’t love their range maps, but at least the map point forecast helps. They give a specific accumulation forecast for points across the map.

              1. When you go to their web page, go to the Winter Weather option, go to the Probabilistic Snowfall Forecast tab, and on the main map, at the top, there are 2 circles, one for range, one for point.

                1. Thanks! I appreciate that info too. 🙂

                  And thank you always for the thoughtful and detailed forecasts.

  4. Thanks TK
    The snow coming tonight pales to this day back in 2013. The Blizzard of 2013. I got 30 inches of snow from that storm. It is still the biggest snowfall I have experienced in my life. There was the band during the storm out near Mark that produced 6 inches of snow in one hour. The snow bank at the end of my mom and stepdad’s driveway was taller than me. I remember people snow blowing their street just to be able to get out. A storm I will never forget.
    In addition on this day back in back in 1969 the Mayor Lindsay Storm. NYC mayor John Lindsay failed to respond to the snowstorm adequately.

    https://x.com/NWSBoston/status/1888196081189863501

    1. I very vividly remember the 2013 event … but not so much the Lindsay Storm, since I wasn’t quite 2 years old yet. 😉

    3. I vaguely remember the 1969 event since I got some days off from school (3rd grade) but NO memory of 2013. Go figure! ❄️ 🙂

      1. I also remember 1969. I was at Katy Gibbs in Boston and charged with calling to see if classes were cancelled. They were and I think the same went for a couple of storms to follow almost on top of this one.

  6. HRRR has a change to sleet all the way to the Mass Pike before daybreak tomorrow. The 6z run had sleet all the way to the Merrimack Valley. No other model has sleet anywhere except the South Coast. This is something I’ll be watching for on the 12z runs.

  8. Is this the possible cause of snow to sleet or frz drizzle for a bit ?

    I keep reading about dry air in the snow dendrite growth zone after the initial thump.

    2. Yes, this a potential, as outlined by the NWS, but so far I think the HRRR’s depiction is “overdone”.

  9. Thank you TK.

    I’m awake early enough to post guesses for Logan snow.

    Please make sure I have your guess correctly. I’ll watch for more to be added. If I don’t reply that I have your guess, I missed it so please remind me

    https://ibb.co/Yz0F01v

    1. Looks good. Mine isn’t there, but I was also the first one to guess. 🙂 6.3 inches.

  10. 12z NAM (both 12km & 3km) are not like the HRRR. They keep the sleet along the South Coast, with a bit of rain sneaking into the islands (accounted for in my discussion above).

    2. I actually had French toast for breakfast this morning! Amazing how 1978 changed the way we shop before snows. ❄️ 🙂

      Thanks Vicki!

      Tomorrow it will be waffles. It’s the Sunday special here at the facility. 😉

      2. Yum. Sounds very fun. I have a dash mini waffle maker that I forget to use. I may change that tomorrow morning.

  14. So is it looking like sleet & possible dry air here on the south shore now keeping snow total down ?

    1. I attend remotely since my church is in Framingham. I will have to check. I wonder if they will go full remote.

      1. Ha ! True !!

        Thankfully, we have a pretty good back deck light.

        We don’t have any street light poles.

        Back in Lowell growing up, we had the street lights and I would be up all night watching the snow in one particular street light.

        I can see it in my mind, even now.

        1. That’s all I have, a street light right outside of my office
          window. 🙂 I spend a good deal of time looking out.

          2. I had a special Street light in Millis growing up and also a flood light at the back door which offered great views
            of the snow at night. 🙂

      1. That is what the NWS discussion said and TK as well.
        If we get an inch an hour for say 4 hours and 1/2 inch per hour
        for another 4 hours, that get us to 6. But, what if the inch per hour becomes 1 1/2 or 2? And some of the other time 3/4 inch per hour? then we can get to 8 or even 10.

        It all depends.

        But clearly, 6 inches is almost a lock.

      2. I typically go to sleep just after I finish wordle at midnight. Maybe a nap is in order for today so I can stay up later

        1. Oh, I know that. I thought it was cool that we are what 9,10,11 hours from commencement and it still looks like nothing. I find it rather amusing even though I know it will be generating later. 🙂

    1. Canadian has a weird configuration of snow.
      Looks like some elevation/orographic enghancements
      and perhaps a bit of ocean effect.

      Don’t know what to make of the Southern CT higher totals???

      WEIRD!!!!

      2. I made the same statement yesterday about the orographic snow distributions and JMA basically said that model should be thrown to the dumpster.

  25. Big difference middle of next week in the 500 mb flow for the next one.

    In the current even in central Canada, there’s zonal or even WNW flow.

    Look at the middle of next week, closed low, which is going to back the flow much more to the SW along the east coast.

    The thing the northeast will have going for it is a polar high to our northeast, that probably will hold the fort at least in the first part of the next system.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?p=500wh&rh=2025020812&fh=6

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?p=500wh&rh=2025020812&fh=108

    Look north of Minnesota.

    First link, for today’s system. 2nd link of next Thursday system.

  26. The above potential scenario is why I would enjoy tonight. 95% to 100% all snow and it should do well.

    But this next 6 week pattern is very sensitive to the flow in Canada and the teleconnections in how dominant the SE ridge can be.

    I realize what the ensembles are saying for total snow from the next several events, but there’s no guarantee after tonight’s event, that the next few to several are all snow.

    2. You betcha! I first noticed that on the Euro recently.
      We’ll take em one at a time and see what shakes out.

    3. Agree, a lot of the snow we accumulate the next few weeks will likely be from front enders on mid storms but wouldn’t discount another mostly snow event either. The snowpack is going to be dense and bullet proof by the end of the month.

      2. I don’t like mix storms. Let it snow or let it rain, but forget about the snow to rain or rain to snow crap!!!!!

  27. 12z models are now depicting cutters for the next two systems Thursday and next Sunday, lol. Some of those depictions would even limit much snow on the front end. Looks good for the ski areas at least which is my primary concern as we are heading up to Sunday River next weekend.

      2. This pattern has the look of a lot of sleet and frz rain. Guess we are overdue as well for some good old fashioned ice storms.

  29. With the strong high and blocking to the north in Canada, what is allowing the Thursday system to cut so badly into Quebec? Are the models over amping the primary low? Seems this should end up further south and at least hint at some coastal redevelopment? This is a snow to ice to perhaps rain event either way but the latter would lock in the colder air for longer.

    2. Low pressure at 500 mb in south central Canada.

      That just allows the SE ridge to amplify more

      I’m thinking, in seeing that, the Arctic Oscillation, AO, is going negative.

      I don’t think that’s a good atmospheric mix for us.

      There has to be some resistance at 500 mb in Canada in a SE ridge dependent pattern. Conversely, with low pressure in south central Canada, comes close to forming a full latitude trof to our west and that won’t work.

      1. Agreed. I’m not a big fan of snow to rain or sleet.

        I do like rain to snow when there’s enough precip leftover to give a few inches or more.

      1. It does not mean that, no.

        The next one is a graze to the south, no rain involved.

        The one after that is too far way to know, but I’d lean colder than most of the guidance shows. The pattern doesn’t actually support that scenario. Model bias, over-warm, under-develop secondary low pressure.

    1. Indeed re: tonight.

      Longer term, I’m with you on small scale things like exact track, etc. But, the teleconnections a week out are somewhat reliable and that is an impressive AO signal.

      But you are correct, JJ, if that AO signal eases some, then things could look a lot different.

    1. This is actually the pattern that’s getting us our winter weather events.

      I wouldn’t get too hung up on operational model runs for a system beyond a few days.

      1. I don’t know if I am getting hung up. Let’s say I am sounding the alarm and echoing Tom’s concerns. As always, will watch and see. I don’t have a good feeling and I hope I am dead wrong!!

        Yes, I have seen both the GFS and EURO portray cutters in the medium range only to have them end up as coastal storms. I get that, but I dunno know this time around. 🙂

        We shall see.

      1. Fast forward a handful of model runs and we’ll see how much it looks like this. 😉

  34. Just a reminder ….. in case you would like to guess Logan’s total tomorrow, please post here.

    These are predictions as of 12:50. I did look through the posts above but there are a lot of comments. Please let me know if I missed you

    https://ibb.co/4Z2XNcW2

    1. You can take predictions up until start time, but for the sake of ease, let’s just call it 7:00 p.m. (00z).

    1. Now, a word about this…

      The 8-12 inch color range is better understood here. It’s highly unlikely any location reaches 10, 11, or 12 in this set-up. But 8 and 9 inch snow totals are certainly on the table. You can see an example of this with the 8 inch forecast for Lowell, and the 9 inch forecast for Bennington. Both are in the 8-12 band, and if those forecast verified, would VERIFY in the 8-12 band. Based on this, I support what they did here. I still think it would be better if they could get away from the hard definitions on those colors, because of the variety of storms snowfall distributions we can see. But that isn’t up to me, so I make the best of what they present us, and that’s what I have done here.

    1. At one point “the models” had tomorrow’s event cutting through central New England as a snow to rain event here. 🙂

      1. Yeah I know. The Euro has been doing this regularly in the long term and then adjusting as we get closer. I agree these next two storms are probably going to end colder than depicted but they dont look like big snow producers to me. This looks like a setup for a lot of sleet and freezing rain with cold air trapped at the surface and warm air overrunning aloft.

        1. I actually think (best guess based on A.M.E.) that the Tuesday night thing grazes the S Coast and the Thursday thing is a smaller event but similar to the one we had Thursday of this week.

          Next weekend’s ends up colder than depicted – idea leaning toward the one we get tonight.

          Three more troughs I can detect in the pipeline behind that system next weekend that keep the active pattern going into late February.

          1. That would be terrific if it plays out that way. Need to let this storm develop and pass by, and get the pieces of energy for the next storm closer before the models are going to get a better handle on later next week.

  37. Mark I was mentioning early this being the anniversary of the blizzard of 2013. I know you remember and that snow band that produced 6 inches of snow in one hour where you are in CT.

    1. Best storm of my life. 6″ in one hour in that death band and I recorded 12″ in 2.5 hours. Reported it to the NWS and it was then mentioned a short time later by Carl Parker who was on air on the TWC. Never seen it snow so hard in my life. It was a mixture of small flakes, silver dollar flakes, with some hail and thunder mixed in at one point. We received 32.5″ from that one.

  38. 12 GEFS ensemble mean in good agreement with a track near Buffalo for Thursday. No beuno. Tries for coastal redevelopment but it happens over SE MA too late.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefsens&p=sfcmslp-meanmem&rh=2025020812&fh=126&dpdt=&mc=

    Mean is much south for the system next weekend though which is a decent sign, though obviously a larger spread:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefsens&p=sfcmslp-meanmem&rh=2025020812&fh=198&dpdt=&mc=

    1. #1 is before the redevelopment that the guidance can’t really see, and also underplaying C.A.D.

      #2 I just mentioned above.

  39. I would agree with you Mark Blizzard of 2013 best storm of my life.
    My top 5 list for snowstorms in my life
    Blizzard 2013
    Superstorm of 1993
    Blizzard of 1996
    April Fools Storm 1997
    Boxing Day Storm December 2010

    1. Superstorm of 93 also my #2. Got 27″ and blizzard conditions when I was in high school in Upstate NY.

  41. Ok, I’ve said all I need to for now about storm threats beyond the imminent one. This is now my focus.

    I’ve noticed the NWS discussion writer(s) for 1 p.m. has a more aggressive outlook on this and has bumped up the snow forecast #’s by 1 to 3 inches across most of the region. What was 7″ at Boston is now 9″. Not saying I think Boston is locked in for 9″, but this discussion paints it this way. The forecasters for the latest update are Matthew Belk and Candice Hrencecin.

  42. Watching TB-Det hockey game. 6 goals scored in the 1st.

    Bruins on at 3:30 PM I believe. I think it might be their last scheduled game until the international hockey tournament is over.

    Int’l tournament is 2/12-2/20.

    1. This is correct. Looking forward to Monday’s Beanpot final and the upcoming NHL tournament. 🙂

      I’m going to go out on a limb and say that SAK is more excited for the NHL tournament, but not so much for the Beanpot final between BU & BC. 🙂

  43. Im under the southeast ridge in Sarasota. Ridge will start to break down Wednesday- Thursday the frame we are under the western extension of the high pressure. Gulf of MEXICO water temperature around 65°. Air temperature 80° 65° dewpoint temp.
    Still fun watching an average snowstorm down here.
    Still no seawall smashing 930 mb north easters upcoming. Good news so far?

    1. Nothing overly dynamic about this pattern. It’s not that kind of set-up. What is going on now, and will for a while, is an active pattern featuring a lot of overunning events between the cold up this way and the warmth from the SE ridge – as discussed by the mets here on the blog for a few weeks leading up to it. 🙂

  44. To TK, thanks for your 12:56 and 12:58 comments. I’ve had a problem with this map since they first issued it for this event. It’s a simple enough map but strangely it has not been consistently clear … at least to me … this time around. In fact at one point, the map and the accompanying write-up were on different planets.

    1. I love the idea of the map, but I honestly don’t think it’s being utilized to maximum effectiveness. We have a well versed, smart crew here on this blog and it even confuses us, so that says something.

  45. The HRRR is making a slight correction and very slightly backing off the sleet, keeping it later in the event, lighter, and a little further south. This allows 90-100% of the precipitation to fall as snow with virtually no impact in the amounts.

  47. Non-weather for a moment: Sent my mom to the hospital this morning. NON-emergency, but my concern was heightened as she was very weak on her legs, and it also appears that the meds for CHF she’s on were falling behind their purpose. The weakness I attribute to lower levels of something like potassium / magnesium / one of those things which is also related to the condition. So instead of “wait & see” and having to 911 her out in a snowstorm, I went proactive. Other than a couple afternoon errands and an early evening visit to her, I should be pretty solid on tracking the latest with the event upcoming. Again not going to worry too much about the ones that come behind this yet. I’ll address those on tomorrow morning’s update.

  48. Time for some facts about snow. One at a time.

    Fact 1: Snow is not white. It is translucent. In fact, it picks up all the colors in the color spectrum which our eyes can not really process all at once so we see it as white. It’s the best us humans can do. The explanation behind all of this is a little more complicated, but bottom line it is translucent.

    As an aside, sometime ago, I believe it snowed pink somewhere in the midwest and brown somewhere in Europe.

    1. We’ve had blue tint to our snow which happens in some of our wetter snow events. Has to do with what light is scattered out more efficiently.

      1. Yes, I think I knew that but forgot it. But I have really never technically understood why scattered light in the color spectrum comes through as all white to us most of the time.

        Actually now that I think about it, I probably do not want the answer to this question. (I have been overly curious all my life and I think it exhausts me from time to time. Recently I read there are over 300 names for winds in Hawaii so I simply stopped reading)

  49. Last snow fact for today.

    Snowflakes fall at different speeds which we all probably knew but I think snowflakes during a snowstorm ( not a blizzard) have fallen at a recorded speed of 10 MPH.

    1. I wouldn’t wanna be the one trying to hold the radar gun on an individual flake in a blizzard. 😉

  54. Lightning strikes out in Ohio and western Pennsylvania. Possible a little extra thump with our upcoming storm?

  55. NWS point forecast (4:16 pm) now has 8” for Boston, 6” for South Shore and 5” South Coast.

  56. If I’m following right their next game is on 2/22. They could use a win today. Just went up 3-1!

  59. I wish this storm was coming in a little earlier so most folks can enjoy it . What are we talking after 11 for start time .

          1. Now the fun just doubled. Welcome Jimmy P. And congratulations on your tremendous achievement

      1. This could be bad news for the Caymans, western Jamaica, Cancun, Cozumel, southern Cuba if it materializes

    2. He’s in Australia. I knew that but had a Moment of panic. He said Virgin Islands are under warning.

    3. He was in St Thomas which is a fair distance from the epicenter and most recently in Australia.

    3. I am reading the tsunami, if it occurs, would reach Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands around 8:45pm so would be sooner in Jamaica

  73. I just got back from visiting Mom. She’s doing well! Stable. Resting. In good spirits. They’ll get on top of the situation this weekend and we’ll go from there. 🙂

    Storm update: Not much to update. Timing on track. Amounts in my forecast are the same: A general 4-8 except 2-4 South Coast where the snow is less fluffy and some dry slotting at mid levels cuts it sooner, as well as causes a little sleet & drizzle.

    No blockbuster, but it never was expected to be. A decent moderate snowfall for a lot of the region.

    3. I know I’ve asked before, but could you define “south coast.” Not sure if it’s possible to link a map of these regions matched with the terms commonly used on here to describe them

      1. lol I thought it was just me as I asked the same thing as it’s confusing with the south shore

    6. By south coast I believe now you mean the cape right & if so can we start saying cape cod as the south shore is the south coast as well . Glad your mom is resting .

  75. Good news… no tsunami developed from the earthquake. Max wave increase in Mexico reported was less than 1 foot.

    1. Yeah I’m afraid this has another underperformer written all over it. Just started snowing here.

  81. Thanks TK! I hope your mom is okay. So tough taking care our elderly who took care of us fo so long. I understand south shore to be south of Boston along Cape Cod Bay – facing north and South coast ther southern tip of Massachusetts (Wareham, New Bedford, Dartmouth towards Rhode Island and Connecticut)

  82. Currently 4.5 for year here in Padanaram Village – if we stay under two due to dry slit my prediction of 6.5 here for the winter will still be holding

  85. Once snow overspreads the region tonight, it picks up in earnest. Moderate to heavy snow will fall overnight as the secondary low takes shape off the mid Atlantic coast and crosses the BM. Most of the heavy stuff is out of here around the morning commute but light to pockets of moderate snow may linger eastern and especially northeastern sections of the state. The wild card will be where that dreaded dry slot traverses as that is where much of the meaningful precip is cut off robbing those locations from the higher end snow totals. Let’s hope it stays over the Cape! Be safe everyone!

    1. Hope you are safe also. Just seeing very light snow here. Hoping that dry slot evaporates for everyone

  87. Snowing fast and furious here in Coventry CT and approaching 2” already. Unfortunately the radar to the west is completely devoid of precip. Unless it fills in fast this is going to be a huge underperformer here in CT.

      1. That’s not really the back edge. 🙂 The back edge is in southern Lake Michigan. 🙂

        1. Good to know
          0z runs of the American models so close yet so far getting the northern edge to Long Island Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

    1. As the last one was 90 min early, this one is running a little slow.

      Forecast remains the same.

  89. 2.25” and ripping snow here but dry slot rapidly approaching from the west. I think we are going to be lucky to pull 4” out of this.

    NWS hit the nail on the head yesterday with their write up discussing the mid level dry air intrusion and its potential to limit snow totals.

    1. Not really understanding why this thing finally arrives as forecast and everybody’s writing it off. Ha ha ha… Mysterious.

      1. Eric Fisher on WBZ just said that the dry is working in quickly and he lowered his predicted total for much of MA to 4-6.

        2. He didn’t lower anything. What he did was break up his 4-8 into a 4-6 and 6-8 band. That isn’t lowering anything. It’s detailing in the short range, which is the best way to forecast in-storm (aka “nowcast”).

  93. Ouch. I’m going to try to pretend I didn’t just see someone show model snowfall forecasts for next Thursday on TV, but it may be really hard for me to forget I just saw that…………………………

    Back to focusing on THIS event.

  94. So, a general question: Are we going to verify this evening before it occurs too? 😉

    1. I wondered the same. We had a dry slog but there was a whole lot of snow showing in areas that didn’t.

  95. I was mentioning how the 0z runs of the American models so close yet so far with the northern edge of the snow getting to Long Island. Add the 0z GDPS to that. Just come a little further north please.

    1. I actually think that Tuesday night system does deliver a light snowfall to the South Coast as it re-trends a bit north from current projections.

      The Thursday system from what I can tell looks like a slightly stronger and slightly colder version of last Thursday’s event, but still time to refine the details there.

      Next weekend, the pattern to me says somewhat similar to this one we’re in now.

    1. That’s a decent breakdown, generalized, for sure. But there could be banding in there that actually results in multiple separate bands in those ranges. But I’d probably have done it similarly, but bent the 6-8 down a little further south in eastern areas.

  99. I’ve pretty much done all the short range guidance examination I can do, and the forecast remains unchanged. 2-4 South Coast, leaning toward the higher end of the range. 4-8 elsewhere, leaning toward the lower half of the range south of I-90 and the upper half of the range to the north.

    What I like about this event for my location: Moderate snow amounts, fluffy to medium consistency, and many hours to clean up before I have to go pick up my Chinese food late tomorrow. 🙂

  100. 27 degrees, solid snow, over 2 inches here.

    If you look at the radar loop now you can see the atmospheric lift ongoing in the form of little ripples and cellular “pocks”. This is how we get our around 1 inch-per-hour snow through about 4:00 a.m.

  101. According to HRRR, Danbury CT and Poughkeepsie NY should have been experiencing sleet at 05z (midnight). At midnight, both locations are reporting snow.

  102. Some very heavy precip moving across LI right now. There was just a report of thunder snow in Manhattan when it moved through.

    Highest snow totals in CT I am seeing are 4″ Simsbury and 5″ Woodbridge.

    Just measured 3″ here in Coventry and still snowing but has definitely lightened up.

  103. Snow has lightened up here as well as Mark. I have not measured. Here in CT it looks like will be close to the low end of the 4-8 inches forecasted.

    1. Yep. I am kind of surprised by this one. There was lots of consistency amongst the models for a general 6″ or more of snow across CT. Never underestimate the dry slot!

      Re your post earlier about Tuesday, just noticed the 18Z Euro, 0Z UKMET and 0z RGEM have snow making it to the MA border. NAM gets the northern edge into CT as well. Bears watching. We might be in the running for an inch or two if we can keep the north trend coming.

              1. Started with 5-9, and the 2 caveats, and only had to adjust 1 inch. The 4-8 will verify over 90% of the region I think.

      2. There was also a forecast for your area of 4-8 inches. You’ll reach that range. You still have about 6 to 8 hours of accumulation to come.

  104. Snowing steady here. And as far as the “south coast” discussion goes I always understood it to be the Fall River/New Bedford/Somerset/Fairhaven area. That is how we refer to our branches at the bank.

    2. That is correct. Fall River, New Bedford, Falmouth, Newport RI are all South Coast. Plymouth, Quincy, Marshfield are South Shore.

      The best way to think of it is Cape Cod is basically the dividing line.

  106. Looking across the web, again everybody focused on only the top number in the forecast ranges.

    Forecast 4-8. Hit 4 – verified. Hit 5 – verified. Hit 6 – verified. Hit 7 – verified. Hit 8 – verified.

    1. I read somewhere a little while ago that this would end up further north than recently modeled. 😉

    1. Those are all too high except perhaps for southern VT and NH where all the banding is.

      Just saw a report from someone on the American Wx forum in Manchester VT…..6″ in 3 hours. That’s the type of stuff I was hoping we would get into for more than 90 minutes.

      Another met from Salem NH posted 4″ there.

        1. NWS just changed the map at the link above. It had Boston and Worcester at 8″ and Hartford and Springfield at 7″. That is what I was referring to that was too high. Now they have changed it to an additional snow accumulation map for the overnight hours. And yes I think that one is too high as well. No way Boston and Worcester are getting an additional 5″ from 1AM on. Not sure what they are smoking in Norton tonight.

  112. We’re somewhere between 3 and 4 here. I will be back outside to measure in a number of hours.

  113. Social media was disappointing tonight. A lot of posts and comments met-bashing, verifying the storm before it starts, and just a grand display of ignorance.

    I usually try to hold out hope that these people will learn, but I think I’m being too optimistic. 😉

    It would never grab hold, but I think all meteorologist should take a winter off of forecasting and leave those folks to do it themselves? 😉 Too bad it wouldn’t be fair to the people who actually understand, so we can’t anyway. Darn it! 😛

    1. I am certainly not going to bash Mark Rosenthal as a met. He hasn’t missed a beat. In fact his forecasts most of the time match yours TK, but his online appearance is ABSOLUTELY HIDEOUS I am sorry to say. What’s happened to him?? YUCK!!!

      1. Actually, Mark adorns the look that he likes. He’s spoken about it in commercials (the long hair, etc.). He’s also in his 60s, and given that, looks good for his age and sounds even younger.

        Mr. Rosenthal is a member of a page that I admin for weather on Facebook, and he’s also a regular reader of Woods Hill Weather. Hi Mark!!!

  114. Total Snowfall to date: as of 12:40 AM ❄️☃️

    ORH = 24.4”
    BOS = 18.0”

    Still TBD of course.

  115. Thank you all for the concern, yes I am now in Victoria Australia doing seagrass mapping and restoration for Deakin University. I was in the US Virgin Islands which is in the NE part of the Caribbean kind of the merging point between the Greater Antilles running from east to west from PR to Cuba and the Lesser Antilles from North to South in the east. The fault line responsible for this earthquake was the EPGF Enriquillo-Plantain Garden fault zone. The small ones we tend to feel in the NE Caribbean is from the Puerto Rico Trench.. I will admit, I do miss the Virgin Islands but I will also say though I have not lived full time in New England since 2019, New England will always feel like home to me.

    1. Glad to hear you are doing well in Victoria. Fortunately they dodged a bullet in the Caribbean with this one.

  116. Wallowing in subsidence here with light snow that is struggling to accumulate. Maybe 3.1-3.2 inches now. Radar to the west is anemic. Need another batch of something to develop and pivot through overnight to make 4″.

    Of note…we have been steady at 24F throughout. Cold storm.

    1. Your overnight / early morning snow will be coming from the northwest as the secondary forms to the southeast and the trough that remains pivots through. This is why you break 4 inches and get into my forecast range.

      1. I’m watching the radar like a hawk waiting for this to happen but my patience is wearing thin. Dave is starting to rub off on me.

        1. I noticed. This storm is performing as expected.

          This pattern is not a repeat of 2015. 🙂

          It’s the exact pattern outlined over the last few weeks by myself, WxWatcher, JMA, etc. 🙂

          1. Of course every tv newscaster will be referring to 2015 after every snow event. You can count on it! 😉

  117. 28F here with heavy snow falling.

    Will it be long enough to stop the count for Boston? I assume it’s similar conditions there as well.

    1,080 ❄️

  118. TK – Is your mother staying at the hospital for now or is she back home? Hope she gets well soon.

    1. Which is accounting for the seasonal totals so far for BOS and ORH above! ❄️ 🙂

      I suspect though that Worcester is going to remain at arms-length with Boston through the rest of the winter.

      1. Worcester always gets off to a quick start and it’s usually already too late for Boston to really catch up. Very difficult to “outsnow” Worcester, even in an active pattern.

        I bet Worcester receives the most snow on average in all of SNE! ❄️

  120. Well I wasn’t going to speak of beyond this one, but a quick look at the 00z ECMWF shows a northward shift on the first system, and a slightly colder shift on the second system next week. IMO this is the right direction for both.

  122. I’m guessing I’ll be dry-slotted in my area around 3:30-4:00 AM and then the new batch will show up at 5 AMish.

    1. You should be doing better up there. I saw a report from Salem NH of 5″ and that was over an hour ago.

  123. 3.4″ here in Coventry CT. Some very light fine snow still in the air. I shoveled the deck and will check again after sunrise to see if we managed to scrounge a bit more and reach 4″ when the trough comes through.

  124. Not surprisingly, NWS has cancelled the Winter Storm Warnings for all of west/central MA, CT and RI. They left it going for awhile longer in Eastern MA. From their latest discussion:

    It turned out the dry air we were concerned about in the
    dendritic growth zone (DGZ) was the dominant factor. It arrived quickly early this morning, and shifted the best conditions for snow towards northern New England. Even north of Route 2, expecting those factors to be well past our region by mid morning. Anticipating snowfall rates to diminish from SW to NE. Will be considering ending some of the winter weather headlines early. However, will wait to get the best handle on radar trends before making changes later this morning.

  128. Looks like 3” here.

    Very happy the snow started when it did, as we were all on the road well into the evening.

    1. For me, just about 5″ now but I am getting light snow at the moment.

      At midnight, it was just over an inch at Logan. No idea where they are now.

  134. The previously mentioned band coming from the NW is moving through the area now. Moderate snow here. This one is good for 1 to 2 additional inches most areas it passes through. It is not until AFTER that we’ll be at final storm totals.

  135. look like maybe 4″ here. Haven’t measured. Went to bed right after it started. (and after I played Pink Floyd “Fearless” about a dozen times LOL) I had a self-attended vinyl night in my home office. I’m looking at the damage now and there’s records everywhere.

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