Tuesday May 6 2025 Forecast (7:25AM)

59 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 6-10)

We’re still being dominated by an imposing letter from the Greek Alphabet. Yep, the Omega Block continues – not highly unusual for spring, in fact, fairly common for this season – more so than any other season (watch social media posts / headlines that try to tell you otherwise). This pattern often keeps the weather similar for several days. Sometimes, you can be in the fair weather sandwich in between two lows, underneath an upper ridge. We’re not. This time, we’re under the easternmost upper low, and it gave us a cool, wet Monday, and will do the same to our Tuesday. Yesterday, the main rain area got pushed back westward somewhat due to high pressure in Atlantic Canada. Today, that high gives ground and the rain wheels back through our region. Some embedded thunderstorms can also occur with it. Wednesday, we start to see less concentration of the moisture with slight weakening of the pattern, and with surface low pressure to the west we’ll have more of a southerly air flow. Result: Wednesday is still a mainly cloudy and occasionally showery (and chance of a thunderstorm) kind of day, but a little milder than today in general. The surface low makes its way across the area then east of our region Thursday. While I cannot rule out a shower that day, this looks like a drier day overall, but without complete clearing of the sky as clouds remain dominant. The puzzle to solve for late week is how much impact another low pressure area has on our region. Most guidance shows low pressure bringing another rain event sometime Friday into Saturday. Timing and magnitude varies from model to model, run to run of course. Nothing new there. The thing to watch when using guidance is the trend, and keeping a real-world eye on the pattern. For now, I remain of the meteorological opinion that we’re still under the gun for some additional wet weather there, favoring Friday with s-l-o-w improvement following. There’s the chance that the evolution of that system is further south and east, which would lessen the chance of a more pronounced impact.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Shower coverage increases again – a few may be heavy with a slight chance of thunder. Areas of fog / drizzle. Highs 53-60. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Areas of drizzle and fog. Lows 45-52. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Clouds break for sun at times. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Highs 56-63 South of I-90, 63-70 I-90 northward. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Chance of a shower. Lows 50-57. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower. Highs 60-67. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a shower. Lows 48-55. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Highs 52-59. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows 45-52. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 52-59. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 11-15)

The blocking pattern relaxes and breaks down partially, but remains somewhat intact and coexistent with some pattern progression. May 11 (end of weekend / Mother’s Day) looks OK but not perfect, maybe a sun/cloud mix with a pop up shower, but this forecast will be fine-tuned. Fair weather more likely early to middle of next week including a warm-up, as high pressure should be in more firm control here.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 16-20)

Continuing to lean toward a hybrid partial blocking / partial progressive pattern. Overall this is a drier pattern with variable but mostly near normal temperatures, and no sharply defined weather systems in control.

59 thoughts on “Tuesday May 6 2025 Forecast (7:25AM)”

  2. Thanks TK !

    Much different feeling to the air this morning.

    Last night felt like standing down wind of an iceberg.

    This morning feels comparatively mild and muggy.

    1. Big difference in humidity this AM. Agree felt much colder and raw yesterday.

      HRRR seems to miss us in eastern areas for the most part.

  3. Thanks, TK…

    57 when I left for school. When I was walking into the building at 7 am, the sun was trying to break through.

  5. Thanks TK.

    Too bad these Omega Blocks don’t occur in winter. In a pattern like this one, we would all be in the middle of a big “Snowfest”. Occasionally snowing for days on end. ❄️ 🙂

    Probably would have put 2015 to shame. Oh well.

    1. They do occur in the winter, quite often in fact. Also, as TK mentioned, just because one has setup doesn’t mean endless days of precipitation, especially if you’re under the ridge in the middle.

      Also, remember that the colder the air is, the less water that it can hold, so just because we have a decent amount of rain under this pattern doesn’t mean it would translate to a lot of snow in the winter. 32 degree air holds half as much water as 50 degree air and 1/3 as much water as 60 degree air.

    1. Hi, Tom,
      I’m new here, having been invited by my dear friend, Vicki. She tells me that you are a middle school math teacher. So was I, in Lexington and Belmont.
      Although I’ve been retired for 18 years, I still author the middle school math competitions for IMLEM.
      IMLEM.org
      Evagrio “Vaag” Mosca

      2. Hi !!

        That’s cool !

        I just looked up IMLEM.org

        I will definitely read up on it more tomorrow and see if our math dept chairperson has heard about it/wants to look into it further.

        Welcome to TK’s blog !

  13. Thanks, TK

    1.18 in the bucket in SE sutton here. Ponds, swampy / wet areas looking much improved.

    57 and a wet 56 DP here.

  14. Good short term relief for drought.

    I continue to have my concerns for the longer term…

    1. Which worries me as summer is close along with heat and evaporation. My guess (and it is a guess) is that drought conditions have eased a bit here. I’m curious. Do we actually,y have a season that is rainier than the others? If so, would that be spring?

      1. Adding. The close by beaver pond which had very little water not long ago does have water now. The dam is somewhat under water but still more than normal is above. I’m just not sure of what areas in sutton are manually drained/filled.

  16. I wonder if that HRRR radar simulation I posted above might be trending to being accurate for this evening because of what is going on in southwestern New England, knowing things are translating eastward with time today.

  17. Factoid #2: Most rain in a single storm.

    Foc Foc, Reunion (1966): Tropical cyclone, Denise, dropped over 71.” Reunion is located off the eastern coast of Africa.

    USA (2017): Hurricane Harvey (Texas) dropped over 60″ of rain. (I swear I read a different amount somewhere.)

    Most in a 24-hour period (2003): Hurricane Claudette (Texas) produced 42.”

    I feel as though one of those super-duper cyclones in the South China Sea should have produced more, but I couldn’t find one.

    1. I am surprised Kauai or the Big Island didn’t land on that list. Harvey was a beast rain wise. Underrated storm.

    1. I think I have read that the rainiest place on earth is some village in India where they get over 400″ per year.

      1. The wettest place on earth, in terms of average annual rainfall, is Mawsynram, India. 467.4 inches annual average.

  19. @ Tom … Go back to the comment addressed to you at 11:28 a.m. 🙂

  20. Thanks, TK.

    Driving north on 128 around 12:45, the right lane was flooded in the Waltham stretch, especially the dip by the Rte. 20 on-ramp. I hope that doesn’t become an ongoing issue.

    1. It’s actually been an issue off and on (mostly on) for quite a few years. A lot of construction up on those hills has drastically altered the water flow in that area. This is likely part of the problem.

      1. Oh, that’s why. I’ve experienced it before, but generally in much heavier rain, so I was surprised.

        1. One of my former coworkers lives at the bottom of a slope and they reconfigured the pavement on part of the road, incorrectly, and the result during heavy rain was a fast-flowing river that dug a canyon through his front yard.

          2. Yuk.

            Mac always said to never live at the bottom of a hill. I never knew and still don’t know why. But clearly he was onto something.

      1. And Texas is a mess. I had a zoom meeting with someone from TX earlier who said they were expecting possible severe storms.

  21. Well, that 12z HRRR has this new line pretty well simulated, maybe it’s arriving a bit earlier, but it looks rather impressive.

    It had some sun out ahead of it and it got quite mild and it’s humid so it has something to draw on.

      1. We’re starting to transition to the warm sector which we’ll be in through tomorrow … some areas with thinning of clouds / a bit of sun can hit 70.

        Thursday we go to the other side of the low and a touch cooler air mass (though it may still be mild with partial sun compensating for the subtle cooling of the actual air mass).

        I’m liking a little faster evolution on the last week low which may mean we salvage most of the weekend with fair weather.

  22. Did anyone feel an earthquake today around 1pm? I was in Framingham and I could have sworn I felt a sway like a few months back. Apparently there was a 3.0 in Virginia today.

    1. I was in a busy kitchen around that time and likely wouldn’t have, but I heard nothing about it.

  23. Pouring at Fenway right now. Bright flash of lightning and loud thunder right as we got off the train at Lansdowne about 15 minutes ago.

    1. I was on the road when that came through my area, but one of the strikes was close enough to hear very loudly in the car. Woburn / Wilmington line.

  24. Thanks TK.

    We had a good soaking here last night in Coventry CT and 1.43” in the rain gauge since midnight. Overall we are up to 3.08” since Saturday.

    1. Much-needed rain. This should shrink the moderate drought area.

      1. With upcoming Friday’s rain, that Drought map should be wiped clean completely.

        1. Refer to my comment from this identical comment last week.

          It won’t be wiped clean. Reduced, yes. Clean, no. Just above, I said “reduced”, not “eliminated”.

  25. We need to place an order for an “Omega Block” for the upcoming winter 2025-26. ❄️

    1. That’s not quite how it works. 😉

      1) While omega blocks are most common in spring, but can occur in the winter, the rule is the same. Omega block would not necessarily translate to “snowy” in any given locations. You could end up on the western side of one of the lows – cold with flurries but no big snow. You could end up under a high pressure ridge – cold & dry, or mild & dry, depending on your surface set-up. You could end with a mild ocean flow and a rainy pattern. You could end up in a snowy pattern too. It’s not just one or the other.

      2) To quote SAK from yesterday: “the colder the air is, the less water that it can hold, so just because we have a decent amount of rain under this pattern doesn’t mean it would translate to a lot of snow in the winter. 32 degree air holds half as much water as 50 degree air and 1/3 as much water as 60 degree air.” This is also why the old saying after getting a 3 inch rainstorm in the warm season “this would have been 30 inches if snow” doesn’t work. Probably would have been more like 8 to 15 inches.

      Weather is non-linear, and very complex.

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