Monday May 5 2025 Forecast (7:03AM)

44 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 5-9)

The large scale omega block (low pressure western US, high pressure middle US, low pressure eastern US) configuration is the weather pattern during the next 5 days, and this is an unsettled / wet pattern for our area. The good news is we’ll get some additional drought relief. It’s not going to rain every moment of the next 5 days. There will be drier episodes, but you’ll have to get lucky to be able to take advantage of them. The steadiest rain in the area this morning gets pushed back to the southwest during the day today leaving us with drizzle and a few showers, but the rain makes a comeback tonight into Tuesday as the high pressure area in Canada that helped nudge it away relaxes enough to let it back in again. A surface low associated with the upper low controlling our weather will lift to the north and east midweek. Wednesday our air flow becomes more southerly and the rainfall turns more to a scattered shower / isolated thunderstorm pattern with milder air. We end up in a westerly to northerly flow on Thursday, and while there is still a shower threat, it may be the driest day of the five, because yet another low pressure area associated with the upper low will make a run at the region Friday with the opportunity for additional rainfall – coverage and timing TBD. There’s a slight chance that one stays further east and south, but don’t bank on it right now.

TODAY: Cloudy. Showers diminish north to south but areas of drizzle and a few showers continue. Highs 53-60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Showers regain coverage south to north. Patchy drizzle / fog. Lows 45-52. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Better chance of showers in all areas. Areas of drizzle and fog. Highs 53-60. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Areas of drizzle and fog. Lows 45-52. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Clouds break for sun at times. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Highs 58-65 South of I-90, 65-72 I-90 northward. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Chance of a shower. Lows 50-57. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower. Highs 60-67. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a shower. Lows 48-55. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Highs 55-62. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 10-14)

The blocking pattern is expected to finally relax and break down during this 5-day period, which starts with the May 10-11 weekend. Will it happen fast enough for a beautiful weekend? Probably not. Expect additional unsettled weather, the details of which will be fine-tune later this week. Drier, mild weather is expected early next week.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 15-19)

Going with a hybrid partial blocking / partial progressive pattern. Overall this is a drier pattern with variable but mostly near normal temperatures, and no sharply defined weather systems in control.

44 thoughts on “Monday May 5 2025 Forecast (7:03AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.
    54 this morning.
    Last evening driving home from being out we were subjected to annoying very light rain, the type that one has to use intermittent wipers causing smudging on the windshield. Just Awful!
    I’d rather drive in a snowstorm.

  3. Thanks TK !

    The summer weekend was awesome and greatly appreciated !!

    Back to many more weeks of Spring 🙂

  4. Thanks, TK.

    I just made out a big shopping list due to the fact that on Sat. night we lost power and didn’t regain until 8:00 last night. This was due to a tree falling and a transformer blowing up on a street nearby. Really great. Had to replace a lot of food – mostly refrigerated things. Looks like a dismal week weather-wise.

    1. Wow Rainshine, glad the power is back !!

      Was this from the thunderstorms Saturday ?

        1. They say so. Did hear thunder during that storm at times but didn’t realize one of the crashes was a tree. Also didn’t hear any transform blow up either.

      1. Thank you. I am glad too. Not only did I not trust the food by yesterday, our house was very cold. And yet when I went outside yesterday it felt warmer outside than inside.

  5. Thanks, TK!

    ¡Feliz Cinco de Mayo!

    55 grungy degrees as I left for work.

  7. Thank you, TK! We hung at 60 and humid till early morning. Now 55 and 54 DP

  9. I’m probably overthinking things, but I don’t really understand the meteorological use of “unsettled.”

    This seems to be the relevant definition of “unsettled” in Merriam-Webster:
    likely to vary widely especially in the near future

    It even uses this example:
    unsettled weather

    But we are in a blocking situation. To me, blocking means stability and unsettled means instability.

    1. Unsettled
      In meteorological use: A colloquial term used to describe a condition in the atmosphere conducive to precipitation. This term typically is associated with the passage of surface or upper level low pressure systems, fronts or other phenomenon when precipitation expected.

      From NWS

      1. Oops I was typing so didn’t see this until after I posted. Thanks Tom.

        Is the precip type limited for the most part to rain. I don’t recall it being used for snow.

      3. Thanks Tom.

        That settles it – we have settled into an unsettled situation.
        🙂

    2. Hmmm. That makes sense to me and is a really interesting discussion point for this rainy day.

      Also, I just shared whw’s link with a friend from your town.

  11. Question TK. Sutton has a tractor pull event for May 10. Wet weather means mud which is messy for tractors. I saw your comments for the weekend. It’s not looking very hopeful??

    1. At the moment, no.

      I’m hoping for the opposite as I’m supposed to visit Milford MA for a youth soccer game.

  13. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.gefs.sprd2.png

    While we are “stuck in the muck” weatherwise, the next many days, the southwest US has a ridge build and cooks up an early season very warm airmass.

    The PNA above would then justify a large trof arriving on the west coast.

    As that trof enters the inter-mountain west, the ridge heads towards the east coast. All the models show that southwest US warm dome sent northeast and then east mid month.

    So, potential for new warmth mid-month.

    Of course, it is spring, so even warmth aloft doesn’t guarantee warmth at the surface, especially near the coast, but I am looking forward to watching trends in the coming days.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850th&rh=2025050512&fh=222&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=850th&rh=2025050500&fh=234&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=850th&rh=2025050500&fh=234&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    1. Looks like your area has been in the zone where the rain has trained over for many, many hours.

      1. As long as I don’t need AC. At the price of electricity, it can stay cloudy and cool till October.

        Ducking now.

  15. Winnipeg Jets fans who turned off Game 7 in the 3rd period are kicking themselves today……………

    I always say, NEVER turn it off. NEVER give up on your team.

    2. That’s right up there with the Bruins coming back down 4-1 vs the Maple Leafs with 10 mins left of the 3rd period in a game 7

      1. I made that mistake late yesterday afternoon with my Vanderbilt baseball team. The Commodores were down, 7-2, to Alabama in the bottom of the eighth inning. I switched the channel. The Commodores hit two homers in the bottom of the eighth, a two-run double in the bottom of the ninth to tie it, and then a two-run, walk-off homer to win, 9-7!

        Mea culpa, mea culpa, mea maxima culpa.

  16. Rain factoids. So it’s the season and I’ll try to present some rain facts here and there.

    The longest period of continuous rain in modern times … What is often thrown around is 331 days of consecutive days of MEASURABLE rain in Maui in the 1939-40 time frame However, if you want to include a TRACE of rain, the longest period is 881 days in Hawaii at some point in the early 1900’s.

    If you want to forego modern times, then we can go back a mere 232 million years ago to the Carnian Pluvial Event (CPE). It rained for a period of 1-2 million years. More about this later.

    1. Awesome info. I’m thinking we don’t have a lot of backbone to a few days. 😉

  17. Thanks TK. Greetings from the other wet side of the omega block 🙂

    It is entirely true that SoCal weather can go many days on end with hardly any change. But other times, our whiplash can hang with the best of them. Struggling to get out of the 50s here today, but will likely crack 90 on Friday…

    Definitely some uncertainty in the longer range pattern. I think TK has a good read on it with sort of a mixed blocking/progressive pattern developing versus the very blocky pattern now. Latest CPC outlooks tilt warmer and drier for the Northeast into mid-month, I think that’s probably the right way to go but major extremes look unlikely. In layman’s terms, probably a lot of nice spring weather after the current rainy stretch, especially away from the coast.

  18. Thanks TK. Wet week for sure. Umping got cancelled tonight.

    Hoping for dry weather May 12th. Big evening concert!

  19. Thanks, TK.

    I’m glad we’re not living during the Carnian Pluval Event (per Longshot’s post).

    Imagine being a forecaster then: “Well folks, more rain on the way, just as we’ve had since the day you were born. And it looks like the rain should continue for at least the next million years. Back to you, Liz.”

  20. The Carnian Pluval Event started with a significant volcanic eruption which may occurred near what is now Alaska. The occurrence itself is often spoken as an event which changed the world’s climate. It may have given rise to the dinosaurs.

    I know TK has often referred to the HTE. I know these events can have an effect on the weather but I did not know how strong that effect can be.

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