Sunday May 4 2025 Forecast (7:35AM)

95 Comments

REVIEW OF SATURDAY

A very busy agenda for yours truly didn’t allow me to be on the blog as much as I’d like to have been, so I wasn’t able to comment during and shortly after the occurrence of strong to severe thunderstorms in the area. It’s important to remember something. Just because your area is in a warning for a storm does not necessarily mean your driveway ends up getting the strongest wind gust, the largest hail, the most damage, and consider yourself lucky if you miss out. There were some areas of pretty significant wind damage from this event, including right here in Woburn. Further west, I witnessed live wires down and entangled in down tree branches with the whole mess on fire in the middle of a road in Lexington. There were other significant damage reports, including but not limited to Newton MA and Hampton NH. A pretty impressive event for early in the season.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 4-8)

Now, onto prognostication of the next 5 days, as we continue in a complex pattern which includes some blocking, quite typical for springtime. The large scale pattern features a closed low / high pressure ridge / closed low configuration from west to east across the Continental USA, with our area impacted by the easternmost upper low. Our summerlike air of yesterday is only a shadow of its former self as we start the day today, with it still quite mild, but a cool-down is in-bound, to be triggered by a southward-moving cold front that slides across the region during the day. The means much of the region will see high temperatures occurring this morning to midday. Additionally, we can see some rain showers around northern MA and/or southern NH to start the day, and a late-day return of showers, more numerous to the north and west of Boston while areas to the south see only isolated activity. Some consolidation of shower activity means most areas get wet Sunday night into Monday. As part of the blocking pattern, high pressure resides in Atlantic Canada, and it should exert enough push on our area to suppress the rain area to the southwest during the day Monday, which while remaining cloudy, will feature a trend to less rain / mainly dry. The high pressure area will lose its grip and the low will regain its influence on our region heading into Tuesday – a day likely to feature widespread showers. As we reach midweek, more changes come about as the blocking pattern loosens up and the upper low starts to lift north northeastward. This should allow our surface wind to shift from easterly to more southerly, but clouds and additional showers are possible as this transition occurs. By Thursday, a weaker version of the upper low will be over our region, and the sensible weather should feature lots of clouds and a few showers. There’s still some uncertainty in the midweek details, so check updates!

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. A spot shower possible. Highs 63-70 by midday, followed by a cool-down north to south. Wind SW to variable to N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Lows 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Showers diminish north to south but patchy drizzle. Highs 53-60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers regain coverage south to north. Patchy drizzle / fog. Lows 45-52. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Better chance of showers in all areas. Areas of drizzle and fog. Highs 53-60. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Areas of drizzle and fog. Lows 45-52. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Clouds break for sun at times. Chance of a shower. Highs 58-65 South of I-90, 65-72 I-90 northward. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Chance of a shower. Lows 50-57. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower. Highs 60-67. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 9-13)

Blocking remains dominant at least at first. Been trying to figure out if fair weather overtakes the region sooner or is delayed by another low pressure area early in the period. Leaning toward the latter, then a drier trend after. Further adjustment / fine-tuning will be needed for this part of the outlook. This is a slower pattern evolution than prognosticated on the previous blog post.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 14-18)

Hints for a more progressive pattern though I’m not sold on a complete pattern switch. Current indications are for no well defined weather systems, but overall pattern more “dry” than “wet” and no temperature extremes.

95 thoughts on “Sunday May 4 2025 Forecast (7:35AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.
    No matter what has beeb said, I still don’t thibk a severe thunder storm warning should have been issued for Boston. Areas to the West, sure, but not for the city . I will not back off from that, sorry. And I know you were talking to me in today’s opening remarks.

    Some really intense storms occurred yestersay, just not in the city.

    1. With the speed of that cell, there 100% should have been a warning extended to Boston. MANY, MANY times we have seen damaging wind from dying cells continue way out ahead of where the heaviest rain / lightning activity has been. There is not even a debate to be had here. As a meteorologist, I’ll tell you that warning was not a mistake to issue. The southern part of that line was showing bowing tendencies. You don’t, as a warning meteorologist, decide that it’s not going to potentially result in damage and not issue the warning. Much better to have an area warned and escape, than the opposite. Again, 100% needed warning all the way to the city.

      Yes there were some really intense storms, but don’t qualify it “just not in the city”. Here’s the thing. At my house, we had no damage. Two miles away, trees down everywhere. You know how severe weather works. The storm doesn’t just say “hey there’s Boston, we can’t do anything!” … nope, not how it works. NWS was right.

      1. Mac and I saw in the theatre. It’s the only one I’ve see. My 13 year old granddaughter is a huge fan. I think she has five or six helmets now. She anc her dad have built several HUGE Lego figures

    1. Indeed. That was a very aggressive area outbreak and the primary threat was of course wind. This was the case.

      There still seems to be this overall feeling browsing social media of calling an event “a bust” or “a dud” if the observe didn’t lose all their trees and roof / car. How often do we have severe weather wind events that are nearly 100% damage coverage across an entire region? Pretty much never. The closest we get are a derecho event. We’ve had a few, and thankfully they tend to be weaker here than their cousins that occur in the Midwest / Plains.

  6. Thank TK. I am still in Minnesota for the weekend and in the ridging of the block which will lead to a spectacular 80 degree brilliant sunshine day. Off to the golf course before heading back east to clouds and rain early tomorrow morning.

  9. With the amount of sunshine I am seeing and the slowness of this front, I believe 80 may be in play for today for my area.

  11. 74F, breezy, low 60s dps.

    What a summer weekend !! Love it !

    I think because of this, I’ll even be able to accept tomorrow’s 50F raw breeze off the ocean. 🙂

  14. On a music-related note, this is the year I’m going to see some acts that have “been around a while” before there’s not a chance to see them. I have never seen either of these 3…

    Devo: May 9.
    Todd Rundgren: June 22 (his birthday).
    Elvis Costello: September.

    Looking forward to all!

  15. So I did obviously talk about this in the discussion, but anybody interested in trying to figure out what might happen the next few days using the short range guidance, HRRR is probably your best bet on the 00z, 06z, 12z, 18z runs for a longer lead. The other runs don’t go out as far. The RRFS is still technically experimental, running a few times a day, so use with caution. NAM has been a little inconsistent, but I think the 3km from 12z today has a decent handle on the way it plays out through 48 hours. I don’t pay much attention to the NAM beyond 48 hours.

    The front sinking down into our area will help generate showers later today / this evening, but I still feel high pressure in Atlantic Canada will have enough (May the) force to push the shower activity back to our southwest as Monday rolls along, only to have it wheel back this way Monday night / Tuesday. The Tuesday timing may be that we’re wettest early, then just go drizzly with not much actual rainfall after that.

    Trying to figure out positions of surface lows when you don’t have very defined features being controlled by a blocking pattern is “fun”. A westward drift of everything should put us in more a southerly wind for Wednesday – though not too strong. This would be a warmer day compared to the 2 that precede it. But of course the South Coast would feel a cooling influence. Showers would still occur with the instability associated with upper level low pressure and plenty of low level moisture. Even though I forecast the low to migrate to the east of us Thursday, putting us in a northerly air flow, then having to watch the offshore system Friday, I’m not that confident on this being the way it plays out. Guidance can be SO out to lunch in these patterns and look very different just a few runs later, having lead you in the wrong direction if you put too much stock in it.

    1. Friday is a big day for me . Is 50/50 on a decent day . Even if I had a dry morning I could swing that

  16. 72, dp 62 here. Feeling quite YUCKY!!!!
    For once I NEEDED that front to sag South of us.

  19. Again many folks ’round social media barked about the “worst April ever” in eastern New England. Nope!

    For example, Boston averaged 2.2F milder than the long term average, and had a precipitation deficit of 0.50 inch. So April was mild & dry overall.

    Traces of snow were recorded on 4 days at Boston during April, which is obviously less than the 1.9 inch long term average.

    P.S. The mild & dry April followed a March that was 4F warmer than average and slightly drier than average too.

    So the claims that this is the worst spring in years or the worst spring ever are simply NOT true. The drama of social media these days is telling people how they feel about something instead of actually paying attention to fact and having the correct observation and conclusion.

    1. Agree. Note: Not even I said it was the worst Spring as I was well away that it was drier and milder than average.
      And, I AM one to bitch about the weather. 🙂

      Hope that front makes it here by 1PM or very shortly thereafter. 🙂

    2. Yep the drama on social media has impacted soo many on too many negative issues. It used to be we were smart enough to fact check …
      used to be 🙁

      1. The other thing that’s highly out of control now are spammers / scammers. I wish the powers that be would take more pride in what was once a great tool.

  21. Logan’s wind has swung around to West. Front in the area????
    It was previously South West.

    1. Yes, it goes variable for a bit, then NW or N, then eventually NE.

  26. 75, 63 here.

    Beverly 64, 61 NE wind.

    Close, but not quite here yet. I felt a cooling breeze and was hopeful, but I guess not yet.

    YUCK!!!!

    1. This is more like a jello front. It’s not a sharp line that’s ripping along. It’s just kind of oozing down.

      1. A jello-Front. I like that term, although I’d rather it just moved through. 🙂

  28. No preliminary storm report compilation yet from NWS, many hours later than we’d normally have seen it in the past, but I’m honestly not surprised. Who know when it will show up.

  31. Logan, wind has died down to SW at 3mph. Is front right there?
    It is 1PM. 🙂

  33. Logan is now up to 77, BUT the wind has gone DEAD CALM.

    I want to see that next wind direction to be NW, N or NE!!!!

  34. Logan down to 70 with East wind at 16 mph!

    YEAH!!!

    Not quite felt here yet. Dropped 1 degree to 76 with dp 63.

  38. It has arrived here. Curtains on East facing side of the house
    are blowing in. I can even smell the difference in the air mass.
    Now, HOW long to cool and get the damn dew point down?

    Still 76 here, dp 62 here. Watching it. 🙂 🙂

  45. 69, dp 57

    Logan 57, dp 55

    Didn’t Tom post something about a model showing Logan
    at 58. 🙂 Not too bad. 🙂

  50. Sox look anemic. Tired. And it’s only May 4th.

    Better on paper than last year. But on paper is kind of meaningless. They actually were more exciting last year at this time in the season.

    1. Inland a little slower.

      Hanging onto the warmth for a slight bit more down by the sagamore bridge.

  54. Oh well, spent the weekend in Portland. Leaving for home tomorrow. 53 degrees the entire time and rain like 90 percent. Miserable weather…

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