Saturday May 3 2025 Forecast (6:59AM)

122 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 3-7)

Another taste of summer will be with us today on the warm side of a frontal boundary that will take until sometime Sunday to make its way across the region from north to south. This will take place as high pressure in eastern Canada gains strength as part of a battle between Canadian cool air and southeastern US warmth that we often see in spring here in New England. But the warm side is in control today, and while it is, we’ll have to watch for some afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. But the timing of these seems late enough that areas that do see them still get through the bulk of the day rain-free. The focus for this activity will be west of I-95 late afternoon into early evening, with weakening remains swinging eastward during the evening. As is often the case at this time of year, the activity is likely to diminish as it approaches the coast due to marine stabilization and the loss of daytime heating. A few more showers may traverse the region tonight. As we move through Sunday, clouds are likely to be dominant, and while we’re still “in the warm air” initially, it won’t get as warm as today. The temperature rise will be thwarted and reversed during the day from north to south as the aforementioned frontal boundary moves through. However, I do think we are going to make it through much of Sunday’s daylight hours free of much rainfall too. It is at night when some overrunning over the boundary will likely create a ribbon of rainfall that wets the region down. The push of Canadian high pressure should be strong enough to get rid of most of that rain Monday, while we keep the clouds, and continue the cooling trend. This is part of a blocking pattern evolution that will find two closed lows (eastern and western US) sandwiching a ridge of high pressure (central US). The easternmost low will be what gives us additional unsettled weather Tuesday and Wednesday of next week with occasional showers. Still working out the finer details of those days…

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix, but clouds more dominant southeastern MA and South Coast along with areas of fog . Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will favor areas west of I-95 mid to late afternoon, with a few storms possibly strong to (isolated) severe. Highs ranging widely from 56-63 South Coast to 78-85 inland areas mainly west of I-95. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely north of I-90 early. A few additional showers possible late evening and overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 52-59. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. A spot shower possible. Highs 63-70 by midday, followed by a cool-down north to south. Wind SW to variable to N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Lows 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Showers diminish north to south. Highs 53-60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers possible mainly South Coast. Lows 45-52. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Better chance of showers in all areas. Highs 53-60. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Lows 45-52. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of showers / drizzle. Highs 53-60. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 8-12)

Blocking early to mid period but southward shift of features to allow high pressure to build in with drier weather, then a more progressive pattern evolves later in the period when we’ll have to watch for the arrival of a cooler airmass from Canada.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 13-17)

More progressive pattern but overall this area in a trough position which allows for more Canadian cool shots with brief warm-ups between. The pattern can feature brief unsettled spells amidst mostly dry weather.

122 thoughts on “Saturday May 3 2025 Forecast (6:59AM)”

  1. Thanks TK. Hoping to have a barbecue on Tuesday evening but looks like there may be a rain delay.

  2. Thanks TK. Better forecast for sure!

    Clearly a big shit from a few days ago for today’s forecast. Boys see are happy to ump all day today and tomorrow. They make $35 for field and $40 for home plate. Not bad for 13 and 15 year olds. They learn amazing skills, like how to handle adults that get too rowdy for little league!! You know who say are the worst, not the coaches but many of the moms and dads on the sidelines are mean.
    You should see my oldest, they love him as an ump. He’s loud like me lol, firm and really good at it so the coaches enjoy it. Anyway long way of saying glad most of the day is rain free.

    Also I assume it’s safe to plant anything at this point?

  3. Good morning and thank you TK
    60 overnight and now.
    ocean temp: 48 ( Boston buoy)

    Starting out with some sunshine.

    We shall see how high it goes today.

    I suspect 80 + here.

  5. Thanks TK !

    The SPC outlook increased the tstorm threat a bit today, even a 2% tornado contour inland.

    2. I noticed that, plus the marginal risk has once again been extended Eastward to include Boston. Yeah right. No worries there. 🙂

      1. Let’s see what Logan and suburbs temps are around 4pm

        If it’s 75F+ because the wind isn’t due south, then maybe the storms can survive in some form to Boston north along the coast.

        If 65f-68F with a due S wind or the indirect South coast seabreeze has made it all the way to Boston’s latitude, then yes, the storms will fizzle prior to Boston.

  8. Taken as a whole since the equinox on March 20th, this has been one warm spring.

  9. Currently 73 here with dew point of 60.

    I want to keep that dew point down for a number of reasons.
    I doubt I will have any influence on it. 🙂

  10. 70 at the airport with a slight SE sea breeze at 7 mph.
    How strong will the sea breeze get? OR will it switch to SW?

    76 here, dp 60

  13. Now 77 with dp 61

    Airport 72 with dp 61 and a SE gentle breeze at 7mph.
    Perhaps not enough to make it cool at the airport, but enough
    to prevent it reaching 80 or likely anywhere close to it.
    OF course if the wind shifts to SW then the temp will jump up. 🙂

  14. Thanks, TK.

    Philip, hope you feel bettersoon.

    I like to listen to a hand-held receiver a lot. I like to listen to 162.550 for the weather. It is VHF. They anounced a day or 2 ago that they will be doing a major update starting, I think, on Mon. May come back around Weds., they say, not sure. First time I ever heard of this before. I listen to the Worcester weather there but Boston, Rhode Island and maybe others will be off too. I can listen on my smart phone if the lights go out but the batteries run out fast and my weather radio lasts longer. This situation has never happened before.

  19. The other reason Boston may escape a storm is the flow aloft is SW to NE.

    The flow isn’t there to drive storms W to E or NW to SE.

    Storm motion will be SW to NE with a struggle for that to translate eastward.

    1. And then there would be a 3rd reason that you discussed yesterday, namely the effects of the indirect sea breeze from the waters South of us that would destabilize the atmosphere in eastern MA.

      No wonder it is tough to get decent thunderstorms in the city.
      At least not until the waters South of us warm up significantly. 🙂

  20. 81, dp 61 here while it is still ONLY 70 at the airport with ENE wind at 9 mph.

    1. Still 72 at the airport. How the bleep is Logan still holding onto a sea breeze?????? SEA BREEZE CAPITOL of the of this state!!!!!

  26. Logan has jumped to 75 with SE wind at 7 mph.
    About to shift to SW with BIG temperature jump? We shall see.

  27. Marshfield airport, SSW wind at 16 mph with temperature at 79.
    Again, how is Logan holding onto a sea breeze??????????

    1. Until I moved to marshfield, I had no idea how often Marshfield switches over to a land breeze before Logan does.

      I don’t know if it’s the indirect seabreeze/slash general flow that makes it mot Marshfield’s latitude before logan’s latitude.

      Last night, Marshfield wind went sw about an hr before Logan’s. It’s a fascinating small scale happening for sure !!!

  31. The leaves are turning. My dad would say it means a storm is coming …. Maybe their location is a bit off. Severe t storm warning in MA NW

  33. Looking at the activity over the Hudson River Valley of NY the movement for the storms is northeast. I might miss this to the northwest unless some back building happens.

  34. Thank you rainshine for your well wishes! 🙂

    I, like Vicki am concerned about those major updates coming soon to your weather radio station given this new “administration”. I just hope lives aren’t lost needlessly especially during the upcoming hurricane season due to stupid cuts.

  35. https://radar.weather.gov/station/KENX/standard

    2 reasons to watch and see how these do.

    1) there’s a pocket of 83-87F air northwest of Boston in the 128-495 belt. How warm are those areas 90 min – 2 hrs from now?

    2) whether it’s a back door front or outflow boundary from earlier storms, it’s in the upper 60s to low 70s in the Merrimack valley and as discussed just above, a lot warmer just south of that. So perhaps, another opportunity to sustain storms along a sharp boundary.

    2a) :). These storms are starting from a lot lower latitude trajectory.

    2. Interesting.

      Either way, I don’t think there is any concern for Boston.
      We may pick up a dying storm, but certainly NOT a mature full blown severe storm. No Way. I’d be very surprised if that were to happen. I’ll be watching all the same.

      Oh and not for nothing, but by the time they reach Boston, the effects of the sun’s heating will be diminishing greatly. That has to be factored in as well.

      1. Oh and the wind is more South at Logan anyway rather than SW and that for SURE will limit severity of any storms towards the coast.

        Definite indirect sea breeze effect (from waters South of us where water temp is just about 50 degrees) knocking down instability.

          1. 🙂

            These are fun weather days for me. Almost as exciting as a snowstorm, and at times can be more so.

  36. Logan’s wind finally turned to the South at 20 mph, but I can see some Westerly component to that wind.

    Temp there 82.

    84 here with dp 61 and a quite strong SW wind that is really blowing. I just came in from a run to the store. It is a tad muggy, but not too bad for me. My wife can’t stand it as she is really affected by the Warmth/Dew Point combination.

    I could see all sorts of building cumulus in the North Western Sky. NOTHING locally as there is almost FULL sunshine.

  37. Text from the Severe Thunderstorm Watch

    * Primary threats include…
    Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
    Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
    A tornado or two possible

    2. Neat to see SPC’s thoughts in our local area in response to what’s in western CT

  39. Thanks TK.

    79 here in Coventry after a high of 82. Second July like afternoon in a row.

    Some big storms incoming from the west. Warning now in effect for Hartford County.

    We almost met friends at Killington for skiing this morning but bailed as we just have too much to do around the house. Here is a pic they sent though from the Double Dipper trail this morning. Look at the steam coming off the snow…

    https://i.postimg.cc/HLW84hYV/7590851447667638218.jpg

      1. Pretty much every year we do a Killington day in May as our last ski day of the year but don’t think it is going to happen this year.

  42. * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for…
    West central Worcester County in central Massachusetts…
    Southeastern Hampshire County in western Massachusetts…
    Southeastern Franklin County in western Massachusetts…
    Central Hampden County in western Massachusetts…

    * Until 445 PM EDT

    TORNADO…POSSIBLE
    HAIL THREAT…RADAR INDICATED
    MAX HAIL SIZE…1.00 IN
    WIND THREAT…RADAR INDICATED
    MAX WIND GUST…60 MPH

  46. I’d think that cell NNE is Springfield has the best potential to maintain. Maybe it goes just north of Worcester and then the Merrimack Valley, following a path where the warmest temps/best instability is.

    1. In all honesty, I think NONE of them have that potential. 🙂
      We shall see. I really think I am witnessing the demise of those storms. There is one just South of Worcester that is showing some signed of life. Watching…

  47. OK, unless something happens, I think I am seeing the beginning
    of the storms marching Eastward weakening.
    Will I even see any rain here? Who knows, but it wouldn’t surprise me.

  48. Got very dark and windy here with thunder before it down poured but not too much lightning and no hail. Definitely not severe criteria.

  49. Ok, this takes em all.
    I am now under a severe thunderstorm WARNING!!
    Gimmie a break. what a joke!@!

    A big cry wolf moment. wow!!!!°

    anything to do with staffing cuts????

    1. That warning was actually warranted given how close by damaging wind occurred, and they tend to do it by sections of counties and projected short-term movement.

      The thing with severe storms: Not usually 100% coverage of “the worst” but I get the feeling that the general public, like snowstorms, thinks that they automatically are in line for whatever the greatest impact is going to be.

      The folks that got the warning and didn’t see severe weather were lucky.

      I saw some pretty significant damage over several areas I traveled this evening. Numerous downed trees. Road closures. I actually saw the access road to MassDOT in Lexington on fire due to downed wires. Yup, these warnings were 100% needed, even if some of the areas in them didn’t see severe weather. People NEED to understand that.

  50. Help. I’m not getting warning alerts on my phone. Oddly. I can’t remember how I set them up. I radar scope and clime noaa

    Can anyone help me please

    1. Vicki, I don’t know how to help you with your phone. But the line of storms are moving through here now with strong winds and rain and some thunder. You are south of here. The line will be moving through fast. There is a severe thunderstorm warning into Boston but I don’t think there is nothing severe as the line is I think weakening. There is still heavy downpours behind the line of storms. Hope I helped.

      1. Wish I could help you with your phone. My phone is about 5 or 6 yrs. old. And I still can’t figure a lot of things about it. I don’t use it that often; only when I go out as I prefer a landline phone.

        1. Mine is nearly 8 years old and does everything I need it to do, so I am NOT purchasing a new one, not yet anyway. 🙂

          1. I suspect whatever happened when I had to transfer everything to a replacement iPad. I have Apple care so old iPad not charging wax replaced free of charge. Apple care saved me hundreds.

            My phone is older too. I just can’t figure how to get warnings sent to it

  51. While it may not super severe, it’s neat to see meteorology at play. That storm now is btwn Worcester and the Merrimack valley and it’s maintaining some intensity in the warmest/most unstable remaining air.

    2. Yup, storms out that way really looked nasty!!!
      Hope you escaped with no issues.

      as expected, they really weakened towards the coast.

  53. Well, that big bad severe thunderstorm ripped through my street with a poof of wind and a few drops of rain with NO thunder and lightning. Yup, a truly severe storm!!!!!

    2. A couple of follow-up rain drops falling now. Street isn’t even wet. Never got wet.

  54. I was under a severe thunderstorm warning couple hours ago. All I got was briefly heavy rain some thunder a couple flashes of lightning.

  55. This cell east of Providence is aimed right at Marshfield and it is getting dark.

  56. So, I believe we’re transitioning from the warm sector making it all the way into north-central New England to settling into southernmost New England as a cut off low to our southwest becomes the dominant player.

    I kind of think the boundary is setting up a new in southernmost New England and that’s why new showers and occasional storms are firing further south today.

  60. I wouldn’t want to forecast temps in Essex County tomorrow and even Logan somewhere around mid afternoon.

  61. 115 comments. Must be some weather in our area

    Philip, I hope your knee pain is getting less each day

    1. A lot of that may remain to our southwest for a while. Blocking. Depends on strength of high pressure to northeast, which is often under-forecast by guidance.

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